Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

The amphibious assault on the Kuriles is winding down.  I've stripped my escort carrier TFs of BBs, CLs, and a few DDs and ordered the CVEs to make haste for the Bering Sea.  If the KB doesn't show up tomorrow or the next day, they should make it fine and I will consider that an important achievement in an otherwise bloody campaign.  Here's some information about the campaign that I find interesting:

1.  Losses of xAKs was horrific - 45 to this point.  A majority of these were claimed by Paramushiro's 4YT guns, but a fair number were claimed by Netties.  A few succumbed to sub and mine.  45 xAKs!  That's alot of supplies that went glug, glug.

2.  Other ships lost to date:  LST (1), AM (3), xAP (5), AKL (2), LCI (3), AR (1), AK (3), DMS (1), DD (1 - a "picket" ship picked off by the KB).

3.  That's 63 ships to this point.  Even if the KB doesn't show up for a few more days I'll lose some more to high damage.  Imagine IF the KB HAD been present.  The invasion would have failed (or my troops would have been in such terrible shape that I wouldn't be able to hold the island).

4.  In two more days I'll declare Operation Royal complete.  From then on the invasion changes to Operation Chattanooga - the effort to hold the islands against the inevitable (and highly necessary, from a Japanese perspective) counterattack.

5.  Note the marked lack of combat ships in the casualty list.  The Japanese bombers and CD guns focused heavily on transports, which I think is a wise choice.  I do have some damaged combat ships - CA San Francisco is moderately-heavy damaged by Netties yesterday, and a CL (Phoenix?) took heavy damage.

6.  I have transferred all airworthy fighters off the CVEs to Para and replaced losses.  I'll soon have a good 150 to 175 fighters on the ground including one Corsair squadron.  Most of these pilots have experience at or just below 60.

7.  With all the xAKs lost, I'm much shorter on supplies than I had anticipated.  Right now Para has 27K with perhaps another 100K available to unload if I have time.

8.  The Allies have two big BB TFs stationed at Para.

9.  To this point the Allies haven't lost many troop transports or LSTs, which is good.

10.  Thus far Miller has lost an AS, maybe a sub or two, and lost about 200 aircraft (to perhaps 50 for the Allies).

11. I can shuttle even short-range aircraft (F4Fs, etc) from Attu Island to Para, which is a help.

Edited to update for ships that went under on the 6th and 7th (these succumbed to previous damage; there were no new hits over this period).

[Canoerebel]

P.S.  I just lost a picket DD I had sent far south from the Kuriles.  I should have moved her over to Midway, but forgot.  But some Vals just visited and finished her off, so I know where the KB is now - near Marcus Island and heading north.
 
P.P.S. I had AKEs and AEs in the invasion fleet and I've just topped off my combat TFs with ammunition.  Those are handy things to have along.
 
P.P.P.S.  With the KB still that far away the Allied CVEs should make it back to the good ol' USA.  Those ships combined with Wasp, Saratoga, Victorious, and the numerous CVs that arrive between May and July will give the Allies a stout force.

[Chickenboy]

Canoerebel,

Very nicely done up North, sir. I Like your force compositions. The fact that Paramushiro was already AF 4 is some divine luck that is, for once, favorable to you. Now the shoe is on the other foot re: the Japanese amphibious 'anti-bonus' after April 1942. It will be enormously costly for him to land sufficient forces on either of these islands in the face of 2 (!) CD units to capture them.

I would not have thought of transferring the CVE fighters to the Kuriles before they departed, but that is a very efficient use of scarce resources.

Now that you have fields that can provide fighter coverage for additional landings, are you considering any supplemental Kurile landings that can supported by LBA? Even an additional AF 3 in this area could provide supporting LRCAP and could house DB and TB squadrons. This could continue to compound the problem for Miller there. Any Dive Bombers or torpedo bombers en route to the Kuriles (particularly Paramushiro)?

An AF HQ here could also limit the effects of 'overstacking', which will be tempting for you. Without an AF HQ it may be difficult for you to get replacement F4Fs at that range from the Aleutians.

Of course, this now means that he gets Kamikazes on January 1, 1944. It's up to you to turn northern Honshu, Hokkaido and Sakhalin resources, refinery and oil production into ashes and cinders in 12 months. I'm cautiously optimistic that you're on the right path now.

Give 'em hell! [&o]

ETA: Cross-posted with your update.

[Canoerebel]

Both Onnekotan and Paramushiro's fields can be built to level seven.
 
Originally, I had also planned to take Ketoi Jima, which can be built to level five airfield.  However, when I found a Naval Guard unit at Onnekotan - I had been expecting just an engineer there - I diverted the Ketoi troops to Onnekotan to make sure I could take the island.
 
So I'll try to build up both bases to level seven.  I won't be advancing any further in the near future - I'll have my hands full defending my gains for some time to come.  Probably by mid-summer I'll have the carrier oomph to be able to move forward if I wish to do so and if the islands aren't so clogged with defenders that taking them isn't worth it.
 
Looking at the map and the position of the carriers that hit my DD, I think the KB will arrive tomorrow.  But I am thrilled that my CVEs made it out of dodge.

[Canoerebel]

The KB is just south of Ketoi Jima and tomorrow there should be a great air/sea battle.  I've been fortunate to have enough time to establish the airfield and fighter protection.  Here's the skinny:
 
1. Para has a level four airfield with base force enough to handle 215 aircraft.  I have about 209 aircraft on the field, but I'll stand down the Corsairs to make sure I'm under the limit of 200 (the Corsair pilots have low experience).  Pilot experience for the other squadrons ranges from 58 to 62.  All squadrons are set to 70% CAP and altitudes range from 6,000 feet (for one small Wildcat squadron) to 36,000 feet.  All but that one squadron are staggered from 15k to 36k.  I hope this will be sufficient to knock down alot of KB pilots.
 
2.  I have two big combat TFs - one comprised of Indiana, Warspite, and a slow BB; the other comprised of three slow BBs.  I still have alot of transports unloading at Para, plus support and auxilliary ships.  I expect to face a sizeable combat TF including Yamato.
 
3.  The escort carriers made it deep into the Bering Sea on a general heading toward Nome; but now they'll turn east and then southeast to make for Kodiak Island.  Besides taking Para and Onne, my biggest satisfaction (or relief) is making it through this action without losing a carrier.
 
4.  Miller may decide retaking the islands would be too difficult - he may elect to defend from what he already holds.  He's a cautious enough player (and a very capable tactical defender) that I consider this possible.  But I also think that would be a mistake.  He probably needs to bring a huge force to try to retake the islands.  How hard will that be?  To shift all his shipping and enough men from where they are concentrated at the moment will take much time and effort and fuel.
 
5.  It will also necessarily disperse his men, ships, and aircraft.  Opening a two-front war is a big step in the right direction.  This should reduce the heat noticeably in the DEI, though I expect he's left behind the Mini-KB and some BBs) and I bet I stop seeing the huge number of subs that used to haunt the waters from the West Coast to Tahiti to Auckland.  Most of those will be shifted to hot-area duty.

[JeffroK]

Wrong move by Miller??

Send the KB toward Dutch Harbour, Umnak area to cut off your returning fleets and IFF he has Yamato & Mutsu send them to hit Paramushiro.

Instead he is sending everything against your strongest point. He has lost the islands, he needs to cripple your fleets.

[Chickenboy]

Miller doesn't know that there aren't torpedo-equipped airplanes on the Kuriles yet. If he thought that there may be torpedo-equipped aircraft there, it would be unwise to send an SCTF within striking range.

I'm hoping that he bombards and forgets to turn off 'escorts do not bombard' switch. The CDs ought to 'bring it' to a number of DDs and CLs if he makes that mistake.

[Chickenboy]

Canoerebel,

At your convenience, can we request a map of your force dispositions within the Kuriles (and as much of Hokkaido and Sakhalin as you can muster for calculating distance)?

Thanks!

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Miller doesn't know that there aren't torpedo-equipped airplanes on the Kuriles yet. If he thought that there may be torpedo-equipped aircraft there, it would be unwise to send an SCTF within striking range.

I'm hoping that he bombards and forgets to turn off 'escorts do not bombard' switch. The CDs ought to 'bring it' to a number of DDs and CLs if he makes that mistake.

The US doesnt have enough torpedo planes to cover both Paramushiro and provide a strike force for his CV, assuming Dan has the Marine VMTB in the area. If he is scared of them I cant imagine how he would ever face up to a CV v CV battle.

If he can escort his Netties with LBA, he could LRCAP his surface fleet (I think from Etorofu), if concerned he could have a small CVE/CVL force to cover the SCTF.

In the end, he will probably smash Paramushiro rather than devastate the retreating Invasion fleets.

[crsutton]

Well, this will be fun. Anything you would like to do over or should have done for this invasion?

[Canoerebel]

Miller wanted to get my carriers, there's no doubt.  But I think he realizes they've fled and he doesn't know where they've gone.  JeffK, your idea is a good one, but to Miller it must seem like "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush."  He KNOWS I have lots of juicy targets at Paramushiro...and I actually don't have much in the Aleutians (my CVEs are way up in the Bering Sea; plus, the Aleutians have lots of big air bases with lots of aircraft).

He also knows I have TBFs - because a few sortied and sank an AS at Para at the beginning of the invasion.  None are there now, but he's got to assume they pose a risk.

CRSutton, great question.  Very, very much went right with this invasion, but there are two things that "went wrong":  (1) Two-day turns seriously complicated planning and execution.  When you don't have the ability to adjust things and react to problems until a second day has passed it's a serious disadvantage [not complaining about that - it's just a reality of two-day turns, which I still much prefer; (2) I had too too too many small supply TFs - five xAKs here, ten xAKs there, etc.  I should have had more 20 xAK TFs.  I also should have kept them a hex away from Para longer, but I was afraid the KB would arrive any moment so I was trying to get supplies ashore.

Chickenboy, I'll post a map tomorrow (I don't have the game on my home computer).  But I do know that the rest of the Kuriles and Sikhalin Island were very lightly garrisoned (from SigInt, etc.)  So, in addition to fighting the invader, Miller also will have to scramble to reinforce both areas.  He's got alot on his plate, with all that plus the need to keep things under control in the DEI.  I love that he has to fight at two widely-separated places and that he has to now scramble after just scrambling in the DEI.  I'm sure his logistics have been stretched awfully thin.

I have one major problem - I have eight fighter squadrons set to fly CAP at Para - a level four airfield.  I purposefully checked to see that the airbase didn't have an asterisk indicating too many units active.  It didn't.  But later I went back and checked a file a few days eariler and there WAS an asterisk.  So there is a possibility that the asterisk should have been in place and that I have too many fighters. 

[CarnageINC]

Very interesting invasion, I was pondering such a move in my game. Lessons to be learned from this [;)]

[Canoerebel]

3/8/43 to 3/11/43
 
There has been total carnage in the Pacific as the Japanese have thrown everything against the invader.  The results are dramatic and I'd say the Allies have taken more damage, yet strategically the Allied position may be stronger due to the losses taken by Japan.

1.  Opening Surface Engagement: On the 8th and 9th, a powerful Japanese CA/CL force hit the Allied combat ships at Paramushiro and wreaked havoc.  I could not believe the devastation wrought to the Allied ships.  Then the Japanese tangled with the transports and auxilliary ships and wrought havoc.

2.  The opening Japanese naval air strikes on the 8th and 9th were also effective, further doing massive damage to the Allied combat and non-combat shipping.  The only plus here was that the Allied CAP did well, the Japanese losing more than 200 aircraft to less than 100 for the Allies.

3.  Second Surface Engagement:  The Japanese battleships came in on the 10th and 11th; first came Kirishima, Haruna, Hiei, and CA/CL support, followed by Yamato and CA/CL support.  These ships dealt serious blows to the remaining Allied combat ships, but this time the Allies delivered much more than they took.  The damage included single PT torpedo hits against two crippled Japanese BBs sending them down.

4.  The KB moved south and there were only fihgter sweeps over these two days, with both sides suffering about equal damage.

5.  The Allies lost nearly all remaining non-combat ships - a massive total.  I'm guesstimating that all told I've lost perhaps 150 ships in this invasion including, now, BB Warspite and at least three old BBs.  I've lost four CA/CL  including CA Wichita and CL Phoenix.  I've only lost a couple of DDs.

6.  The Japanese have lost BBs Haruna and Kirishima.  BB Hiei is badly damaged.  Haruna suffered at least moderate damage. The Japanese have lost an equal number of CA/CL and at leat nine DDs.

7.  Thus far the Japanese haven't touched the ground troops, airfield, or port facilities.

8.  All Allied AKE and AE are so badly damaged (or sunk) that they can no longer replenish.  I won't be able to hang around much longer, but I think I've got enough to give at least one more solid surface combat using CL/DD.

9.  Reinforcements are on the way but it'll be awhile before I can get them in - I'll have to wait for the KB to clear.  That means my position will be under defended or undefended in all likelihood.  The reinforcements will include two slow BBs and BB Massachusetts.

10.  The Allies have a vast number of moderately damaged combat ships including at least four BBs and some CA/CLs.  I'm going to send a few sprinting toward the Bering Sea tomorrow, as the KB seems to be heading SW to refuel/replenish?

I've lost so terribly, terribly much; and yet I still feel like I'm ahead for these reasons:

1)  Solid hold on two big bases close to the Home Islands.
2)  As long as supplies hold out I can send in fresh fighters from Attu Island.  It's going to be tough for Miller to suppress Para's airfield.
3)  Despite outrageously high losses in merchant ships, the Japanese navy has suffered some major losses that will have far-reaching effects for the reast of the war.

I'll post a map later and perhaps a more detailed summary of the losses, but only when I have some time to breath.

[Chickenboy]

Wow. Well, you got his attention...[8D]

[BrucePowers]

How will this effect your next invasion, wherever that is?

[krupp_88mm]

why delay.. just do a direct landing on tokyo stop beating around the bush


no but seriously wont he just now fortify teh north home island into a super fortress that you can never penetrate? how will you get past now or is this jsut a feint of a feint of a feint and teh REAL STRICK is coming in now somewhere else.. hehehehe

[Canoerebel]

As Q-Ball has been known to say, there are only two objectives for the Allies in WitP/AE:  (1) get bases within striking range of the DEI and (2) get bases within strategic bombing range of the Home Islands.  And Q-Ball is right.  It should never be necessary for the Allies to invade the Home Islands - fun and doable, maybe, but not necessary.  If the Allies get big bases within range of the Home Islands they can pound Japan to death.  I did it that way in WitP and that's what I plan to do in this game. 

Objective Two is now accomplished and it's only early 1943.  Admittedly, Paramushiro and Onnekotan aren't enough to pound Japan to death, but they pose serious threats:  witness Miller's violent and terribly bloody reaction to these events.  He knows he's in big do-do.  Not only does he have to attack the Allies here, he now has to scramble to seriously reinforce alot of NoPac territory - especially the rest of the Kuriles, Sikhalin Island and Hokkaido. He's going to have to shift what amounts to armies way up here. 

All this is going to tax his logistics and it's going to weaken him elsewhere.  Three weeks ago I was facing the entire KB and eleven Japanese BBs in the DEI.  Now the KB is far away, four Japanese battleships have been sunk, and the DEI is not as heavily guarded.

A significant number of Japanese stronggholds have been rendered irrelevant by the recent Allied action in the eaastern DEI and the Kuriles:  Tarawa, Kwajalein, Milne Bay, Port Moresby, and Lunga are of no importance.  Eniwetok, Rabaul and Wake are of marginal importance.

So despite the tremendous cost paid by the Allies this has been a great strategic success.  Despite the blood-letting on a tactical level, it's also paid dividends there.  The prospect of a massed Japanese counterinvasion has to have taken a hit with the loss of so many Japanese BBs (and CAs, CLs and DDs).

Next invasion?  I don't know. I'm going to have to reestablish my transport fleet and that will take months.  In the short run I'll probably divert alot of British ships currently in the India area to the Pacific.  That's fine, though, as the war is going to be fought in the eastern DEI and NoPac.  By the time the Allies shift ships to the Pacific and allow for replacements to arrive in the ordinary course of the game it will be mid-summer - and by then the Allies have at least four big carriers arriving and a number of CVL and CVE.  At that point we have parity in the Pacific and the Allies can begin to consider where the next big shove will occur.  Until then, it's time to defend and attrit, and since the Japanese have to come to us (or, they had better, because the NoPac bases are potential death to Japan) this favors the Allies.

[aztez]

Good move and very sensible thoughts above!
 
You really don't need to seize whole pacific to get the job done! [:D]
 
Those airbases in north are very nice to have! It will be hard for Miller to dislodge you now that the landings went solid! With an air HQ long legged bombers can visit quite nicely into Japan itself.
 
Keep up the good work! The prize you paid is definately worth when comparing to the gains you made.

[Galahad78]

Cannot recall if you've said anything about it but, have you arranged a good sub patrol line up there to greet KB/Yamato/possible landing forces as they deserve?

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: krupp_88mm
no but seriously wont he just now fortify teh north home island into a super fortress that you can never penetrate? how will you get past now or is this jsut a feint of a feint of a feint and teh REAL STRICK is coming in now somewhere else.. hehehehe

A Japanese player that retreats into the turtle shell of the home islands in 1943 is a Japanese player that loses the game. Quickly. The Japanese player needs to import copious amounts of oil, resources and fuel in order to power its industry. Losing either access to resources and oil (e.g., DEI cut off) or having factories bombed (e.g., Allied strategic bombing offensive against the home islands) will accomplish much the same thing. Canoerebel threatens to do both of these things now. A home islands invasion is absolutely not necessary to win the war (in 1943!) for Canoerebel.

Maybe if the Northern islands had been taken in early 1945 the Japanese player could rest on their laurels and live off of the supply already in hand. In 1943 this is not a practical solution.

Miller is hosed. Canoerebel has him between a rock and a hard place. Shift forces homeward? For Miller, this will mean more rapid advances for the allies in the DEI (=death for Japan). Stay the course in the DEI? For Miller this will mean strategic bombing commences forthwith from capable bases in the Kuriles (=death for Japan). In one motion, Canoerebel has opened that elusive second front against the IJ.

Here's what I would expect:

1. Less pressure in China. This represents the closest source of IJA troops for a counteroffensive. Miller will pull back his troops on endless offensive in China to a defensive position. He'll also move those troops across Korea to Japan and Sikahalin proper.

2. Defensive position in DEI. He'll likely marshall his forces against the greater immediate threat: the Northern islands campaign. I would not expect a massive DEI reinforcement from him at this point. The allies have too much to dislodge.

3. Continuing pressure against the Northern islands. Expect LBA to enter the picture soon from the HI, particularly bases on the NE side of Hokkaido. They can engage in sweeps and airfield attacks to diminish airfield CAP.

If Miller has been training up pilots, he will have a health stable of IJN and IJA pilots and reserve airframes to put them in. I'd expect these to make an appearance soon.