Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Canoerebel]

6/23/42
 
India at Sea:  No landings at Diego, but the KB shows up near Karachi.  ASW ships had reported Vals yesterday, so this came as no surprise.  There's no Allied shipping (except small ASW patrols) anywhere around, so Brad has bored a dry hole.  At this point it suits me very well to have the KB parked at the edge of the map again.
 
India on the Ground:  The Allies have 2000 AV at Bombay and at least 400 more on the way.  The Japanese have 26 units at Poona.  Brad is reconning Bombay and will note the Allies have 36 units there, so he knows the Allies plan to make a stand.
 
India in the Air:  For some reason, all Allied aircraft stood down this turn.  Brad's engineers already have Poona airfield to level two.
 
CenPac:  Confirming that the KB was really, really far away convinvced me that the Allies should commence with the Baker Island campaign.  This island with level one airfield is garrisoned by two units, one of which is a base force.  I expect the other is a Naval Guard of something similar.  The Allies are bringing about 350 AV in the form of 145 RCT, 159 Motorized RCT, 102 Combat Engineers, 4 Field Artillery, 637 Tank Destroyer, two AA units, 255 Base Force, and I Amphibious HQ.  The nearest Japanese airbase is Tabituea - level four at a distance of about 13 hexes.  How effective will Bettys and Nells be at that range?  I won't have much, if any CAP, but I combat loaded the troops on nearly double the needed ships in order to expedite unloading.  The invasion force will depart San Diego in three or four days.  If necessary I can hold things up briefly to permit CVE Long Island to pick up a Wildcat unit to provide some local CAP.

[desicat]

Using CVE Long Island to reveal a few naval air assets could help your fleet in being posture. Imagine what he will be thinking when your first amphibious island invasion hits Baker? Are some of CR's CV's at Baker?

At some point the fleet in being concept ceases to be an immediate threat and becomes an "at anchor" non factor until the stakes are raised to a point where both sides know they will be committed.

Best to keep him wondering that your fleet could be used at any time, and by revealing hints of naval air it will keep him guessing as to your intentions.

[Canoerebel]

6/24/42
 
India at Sea:  KB moves southwest with Vals picking off a picket xAKL.  I don't think there is an immediate threat of major invasion of the NW India coast (that would be a big shock).
 
India in the Air:  Allied bombers and sweepig fighters hit the airfield at Poona.  Losses were about 1:1, which is acceptable at the moment.
 
India on the Ground:  Two more IJ units at Poona bringing the total to 28.  I'm pretty sure (but not positive) that this is the real spearhead.
 
NoPac:  An AA unit is heading for Umnak Island.  Base building continues.
 
CenPac:  The invasion force departed San Diego.  Transports loaded with Wildcats departed SD for Christmas Island, where it will rendezvous with CVE Long Island.  Transports combat loaded with supplies departed Pearl Harbor for Christmas Island.  I don't think use of Long Island will deceive Brad in the least, so I will use only if I think a handful of Wildcats will help fend off Netties from Tabituea.   

[Smeulders]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

6/24/42
 
India at Sea:  KB moves southwest with Vals picking off a picket xAKL.  I don't think there is an immediate threat of major invasion of the NW India coast (that would be a big shock).

India in the Air:  Allied bombers and sweepig fighters hit the airfield at Poona.  Losses were about 1:1, which is acceptable at the moment.

India on the Ground:  Two more IJ units at Poona bringing the total to 28.  I'm pretty sure (but not positive) that this is the real spearhead.

NoPac:  An AA unit is heading for Umnak Island.  Base building continues.

CenPac:  The invasion force departed San Diego.  Transports loaded with Wildcats departed SD for Christmas Island, where it will rendezvous with CVE Long Island.  Transports combat loaded with supplies departed Pearl Harbor for Christmas Island.  I don't think use of Long Island will deceive Brad in the least, so I will use only if I think a handful of Wildcats will help fend off Netties from Tabituea.   

You should be careful about the disruption that accumulates from being on an amphibious TF. Your forces could be in pretty bad shape just from being at sea for such a long time before they get to Baker.

[ny59giants]

If necessary I can hold things up briefly to permit CVE Long Island to pick up a Wildcat unit to provide some local CAP.

Yes, this is needed just to take on the Nell/Betty. Remember that he can use drop tanks on his Zero to a range of 14 hexes. I would form 2 or 3 small SC TF with about 3 or 4 DDs in each that would be placed on the western side of Baker Island. Nell/Betty have trouble hitting them regardless of experience levels of their pilots. Hopefully, they go for them and waste torpedoes on ships that are almost impossible to hit vs your transports.

From west to east would be DDs (3 or 4 hexes to west of Baker), transports at Baker, CVE Long Island (to the east and just within LRCAP range of transports).

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Smeulders
You should be careful about the disruption that accumulates from being on an amphibious TF. Your forces could be in pretty bad shape just from being at sea for such a long time before they get to Baker.

Great tip, Smeulders. Thanks. Perhaps I will unload at Christmas and then reload. Or would they need a good stretch of time ashore to recover from disruption?

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants
Yes, this is needed just to take on the Nell/Betty. Remember that he can use drop tanks on his Zero to a range of 14 hexes. I would form 2 or 3 small SC TF with about 3 or 4 DDs in each that would be placed on the western side of Baker Island. Nell/Betty have trouble hitting them regardless of experience levels of their pilots. Hopefully, they go for them and waste torpedoes on ships that are almost impossible to hit vs your transports.

From west to east would be DDs (3 or 4 hexes to west of Baker), transports at Baker, CVE Long Island (to the east and just within LRCAP range of transports).

Very helpful suggestions, Michael. Thanks.

[ny59giants]

Great tip, Smeulders. Thanks. Perhaps I will unload at Christmas and then reload. Or would they need a good stretch of time ashore to recover from disruption?

This will take a few days to happen. What is the level of base expansion at Christmas?? If you have more than enough support troops at the base and a HQ, it will go faster. If you have to load over a series of days, do the support troops first and the combat troops last to decrease their level of disruption.

[Canoerebel]

6/25/42
 
India on the Ground:  Amphibious invasion of Diego Garcia has commenced.  Things aren't going well for the Japanese, which landed 148 Regiment, 16 Naval Guard, and Yokosuka SNLF.  Shore guns, the usual attrition during a beach assault, and probable lack of preparation (guessing there as I never got any "Diego prep" SigInt) combined with stiffer opposition than I think Brad expected (an Indian brigade).  Assault came off at 1:4, didn't touch four forts, and cursor reveals just one IJ unit remaining in the hex.  The Indian brigade will attack tomorrow.  I think the Japanese also lost at least four transports.  This is one of the few mistakes I've seen Brad make thus far.
 
India in the Air:  Another tough battle over Poona with 1:1 losses of about 25 aircraft apiece.  Since Japan has a seemingly inexhaustable supply of aircraft, while the RAF has nearly no aircraft, I don't know how long I can continue on these terms, but at least another week I think.
 
India at Sea:  KB moved further south and west.  Assuming it returns toward Colombo, I'll send out more picket ships as transports carrying supplies and aircraft are ready to make the run from Abadan to Karachi.
 
Baker Island:  Thanks for the good help, guys.  I will probably unload and re-load the amphbious force at Christmas Island.  Most of my troops, by the way, are 100% prepped.  I'm also transporting an F-4 unit to Christmas Island.  It'll re-base to Canton and fly some missions just prior to the invasion.
 
Sub Wars:  Subs have picked off a few xAKLs - one near Perth, one near Hobart.  Also, I-22 put a TT into BB Idaho west of San Fran.  Damage is light/moderate.  Idaho will proceed to Pearl for repairs.

[Capt. Harlock]

India in the Air:  Another tough battle over Poona with 1:1 losses of about 25 aircraft apiece.  Since Japan has a seemingly inexhaustable supply of aircraft, while the RAF has nearly no aircraft, I don't know how long I can continue on these terms, but at least another week I think.

Have you managed to bring any USAAF fighter squadrons to India? I find this is a good place to use the surplus P-39 Airacobras. They do fairly well against Japanese fighters other than the Zero or Tojo, and thye have good ground-pounding abilities.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, I have six or seven V Corps squadrons including three or four P39 and the rest P-40. These were in a big convoy heading from East Coast to Oz via Capetown early in the war, but I diverted them to India when things began to look hairy.

I have about ten more squadrons - half fighter, half bomber - on the way from East Coast, but it will be a long time before they arrive.

[Canoerebel]

One other thing worth noting.  Brad has the juicy amphibious TF with accompanying two-BB bombardment TF at Diego Garcia while his carriers are way off in the Arabian Sea.  He doesn't know where my carriers are, so I'm very surprised he would leave his BBs unprotected.  That's risky behavior, and he's done it a few times during the game. 
 
For all he knows, I could easily pop my carriers out of the Capetown channel, clobber his BBs, and disappear.  (I actually can't, because two of my CVs are upgrading and need another 17 days in the yards).  But there may come another time when I'll be ready to do so.
 
I can't imagine Brad be incautious - not his style - so does he actually know where my carriers are, or does he really, really think they're far off at someplace like NoPac? 
 
 
 
 

[Smeulders]

Well, look at it from his position, he wants to take Diego Garcia, OK, he wants 2 BB for bombardment, no problem. Now, the danger are you carriers, but the closest they can be is either Cape Town or Perth.

1) If they come from Perth, he can get advance warning, he probably has some subs around the port, air search from Cocos Islands etc. It also at least means 10 or 12 days sailing.
2) Cape Town, no advance warning possible, but again, it take 10 days to go from Cape Town to an on-map position near Diego Garcia.

So if he figures that he will finish the operation in a week, then there is very little risk of you getting your carriers in a strike position before he gets his ships out of dodge again. The main risk is that your carriers aren't in port but already on their way, but that isn't really that likely. (+ Maybe he looked at upgrade schedules and figured some of your CV would be offline now)

[erstad]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Smeulders
You should be careful about the disruption that accumulates from being on an amphibious TF. Your forces could be in pretty bad shape just from being at sea for such a long time before they get to Baker.

Great tip, Smeulders. Thanks. Perhaps I will unload at Christmas an
d then reload. Or would they need a good stretch of time ashore to recover from disruption?

You can always check the embarked troops to see what disruption they've accumulated. Make sure you look at enough to get a sense of the population, as they won't all be the same.

[JohnDillworth]

so does he actually know where my carriers are, or does he really, really think they're far off at someplace like NoPac?

"Loose Lips Sink Ships". If we knew, we couldn't tell. Happy to report operational security has been excellent in both AAR's. Meaning, I don't think anybody has accidentally leaked a single drop of intelligence.

[Capt. Harlock]

For all he knows, I could easily pop my carriers out of the Capetown channel, clobber his BBs, and disappear.  (I actually can't, because two of my CVs are upgrading and need another 17 days in the yards).

Oh, shucks. Personally, I would have collected the carriers I could, and gone for it. Since you know where the KB is, it's not much of a risk. How's the experience of your air groups?

[JohnDillworth]

Oh, shucks. Personally, I would have collected the carriers I could, and gone for it. Since you know where the KB is, it's not much of a risk. How's the experience of your air groups?

I think he then tips his hand as to the location of his carriers and I bet he does not have many extra SBD's and TBF's. Even though he has no combat he probably has just filled out his dive bombers with some reserves and not yet filled out his torpedo bombers. He would take a bunch of AA losses against BB's.

[Canoerebel]

6/26/42
 
India on the Ground:  Brad seems to have withdrawn his ships from Diego Garcia, but the Indian brigade wasn't strong enough to defeat the troops already ashore.  Brad will undoutbedly come back another day with more troops.
 
India in the Air:  Another big engagement over Poona with roughly 1:1 losses of around 20 aircraft each.  That really isn't bad if Japan is using it's best pilots to fly its best aircraft.  However, the airfield there went from level two to four in about two days it seems, so Brad has lots of engineers at work.
 
India at Sea:  All Allied picket ships withdrew to safety, so I didn't pick up any sign of the KB.  I'm sending out a new line of Picket ships from Abadan and Mombassa.  I have some troops, supplies, and aicraft container ships ready to make the run to Karachi.
 
Reading the Tea Leaves:  It's still very hard to determine Brad's ultimate plan.  My guess is that he could build Poona up to max size (can't recall, but it might be level 9) from which to then handle the air campaign against Bombay while also sending in a mass of troops.  If that is what he's doing, such a campaign will take an awfully long time.
 
SoPac:  All Baker Island invasion ships, men, and cargo are on the way to Christmas Island, the pre-invasion point of assembly.  While Baker Island does offer some strategic benefits, the main purpose of this invasion is to draw Brad's attention to southeastern CenPac, lending the appearance that the Allies might well have plans to hit Kwajalein eventually.  IE, this operation is mainly a diversion.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock
Oh, shucks. Personally, I would have collected the carriers I could, and gone for it. Since you know where the KB is, it's not much of a risk. How's the experience of your air groups?

I don't want to commit the carriers there, yet. At the moment, the highest purpose for my carrier groups is to be ready and in place to escort the big reinforcement convoys to Karachi if the need arises. That duty should be complete in about 90 days. Thereafter I would certainly consider offensive action against BBs.

My carrier air groups have been training the entire game. All groups are overfilled iwth pilots. All but two divebomber squadrons have upgraded from the SBD-2. All but three torpedo squadrons have upgraded from the Devastator. All fighter squadrons are equipped with Wildcats - about 1/2 with F43 and the other 1/2 wiht F4F. By the time the carriers move forward toward Karachi, I think all squadonrs will have, as appropriate, SBD-3 and Avengers.

[JeffroK]

When you take Baker Island get any ship capable of laying mines and set up a 'devils garden'. (Plus a tender to maintain it)

I'm sure the IJN will come visiting.