OT: Corona virus

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says ‘enormous evidence’ for Wuhan lab coronavirus origin
May 03, 2020


https://www.oregonlive.com/business/202 ... rigin.html


"WASHINGTON — U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said “enormous evidence” shows the novel coronavirus outbreak began in a laboratory in Wuhan, China, and that Beijing has refused to give international scientists access to learn what happened.

“I can tell you that there is a significant amount of evidence that this came from that laboratory in Wuhan,” Pompeo said on ABC’s “This Week,” broadcast Sunday. “These are not the first times that we’ve had a world exposed to viruses as a result of failures in a Chinese lab.”"

Interesting. You picked this from The Oregonian, my hometown rag. [;)]

A headline search showed a story on this ran in virtually every paper.

I prefer the take of the Guardian. It shows some real teeth instead of simply reporting the quote, making sure to mention he did not provide any of the evidence he claimed he had seen and also showing the part where he got a bit confused about whether the virus was manmade in origin.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... laboratory


The US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, claimed on Sunday there is “enormous evidence” the coronavirus outbreak originated in a Chinese laboratory – but did not provide any of the alleged evidence.

Pompeo’s claims, made in an interview with ABC’s This Week, represented an escalation in rhetoric. He had previously said the US was looking into the possibility the virus came from a lab in Wuhan, China.

On Sunday, Pompeo said: “There is enormous evidence that that’s where this began,” later adding: “I can tell you that there is a significant amount of evidence that this came from that laboratory in Wuhan.”

At one point, the secretary of state appeared confused over whether he was claiming the Sars-CoV-2 virus (which causes the Covid-19 disease) was deliberately engineered or escaped as the result of a lab accident.

“Look, the best experts so far seem to think it was manmade. I have no reason to disbelieve that at this point,” he said.

But when he was reminded that US intelligence had issued a formal statement noting the opposite – that the scientific consensus was that the virus was not manmade or genetically modified – Pompeo replied: “That’s right. I agree with that.”

I think that the US Govt had knowledge of a virus escaping from there, might have led to the shutdown. If you remember, places like NYC were saying they weren't going to shutdown, and then changed their minds seemingly overnight.

That the virus is not man made, but originates from that lab doesn't seem to be mutually exclusive to me at least. I can't fathom a country that would release a virus among their own population...but there are troubling experiments I can think of: radiation in salt for snow in St Louis, studying syphilis another. Perhaps I am an innocent still.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
I can't fathom a country that would release a virus among their own population...

Lowpe, you don't have to go back very far in Chinese history to see woeful treatment of the people for any number of reasons, some political, some otherwise. "Great Leap Forward", "Cultural Revolution", "Tianamen Square massacre" as a sacrifice for their politics.

The great Yellow River flood of 1938, which killed 900,000-3.4MM Chinese was an experiment in irrigation designed to hold off Japanese troops during their offensive. It didn't work. Chang-Kai-Shek shrugged his shoulders. Meh.

A country whose leaders are authoritarian, with no representation of the average individual is ripe for this sort of 'experiment' means to further their ends. Particularly if they don't really care about any ideas or ideologies other than their own narrow view. I wouldn't put anything past them.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


I can't fathom a country that would release a virus among their own population...but there are troubling experiments I can think of: radiation in salt for snow in St Louis, studying syphilis another. Perhaps I am an innocent still.

Not testing viruses and done with consent (at least that is the official line) but some of the experiments carried out by the UK at Porton Down are definitely in the category I'd describe as 'troubling'

https://www.theguardian.com/science/200 ... e.research

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
I can't fathom a country that would release a virus among their own population...

Lowpe, you don't have to go back very far in Chinese history to see woeful treatment of the people for any number of reasons, some political, some otherwise. "Great Leap Forward", "Cultural Revolution", "Tianamen Square massacre" as a sacrifice for their politics.

The great Yellow River flood of 1938, which killed 900,000-3.4MM Chinese was an experiment in irrigation designed to hold off Japanese troops during their offensive. It didn't work. Chang-Kai-Shek shrugged his shoulders. Meh.

A country whose leaders are authoritarian, with no representation of the average individual is ripe for this sort of 'experiment' means to further their ends. Particularly if they don't really care about any ideas or ideologies other than their own narrow view. I wouldn't put anything past them.

In terms of death tolls I think the Yellow River Flood you are talking about is the 1931 flood. The 1938 flood is thought to have a ceiling of 800k deaths.

800k is still a frightening number.

[Canoerebel]

Big sea change in projections today. I saw a few reports hinting at it this a.m., then more on CBS radio news around noontime. Then got home and found dramatic changes in the Univ. Washington (IHME) projections for the US, the states, and some other countries. These are major, troubling alterations that will have all kinds of ramifications. A few examples:

US death toll projected to increase from about 72k to about 133k (by the end of August). Georgia death toll from 2k to 5k, remaining basically level for the entire summer (this after IHME dropped Georgia by 25% late last week). UK up several thousand or more.

Major changes were made in the models, assumptions, and/or data input. I haven't seen the breakdown yet (we'll probably hear all about it from warring politicians and talk show hosts in coming days), but it had to come from some major shift in viewpoint - presumably the easing of countermeasures (Georgia increased 2.5x while states like NJ and NY rose more modestly) but possibly other factors instead or too. Perhaps information that warm weather won't have a salutary effect. What is clear that there doesn't seem to be a perceived 2nd round in the fall - these projections seem to call for a more or less steady fight in many jurisdictions throughout the summer.

As noted, projections for NJ and NY, among others, do continue to drop. One wonders how. If others states are spiking, would these states close their borders?

I hope these new projections are wrong. There is some hope for that. IF we've learned one thing it's that protecting the elderly/sick is paramount. Nobody's eased those measures yet, to my knowledge. Also, in just a short time we've learned how to impose restrictions, abide by them (more or less) and get by. And we flattened the curve so that most medical communities aren't currently overwhelmed.

There may or may not be other things going on here. It can't be dismissed out of hand because this has become so politicized. There's so much at stake. I don't think many Americans will tolerate extensive further lockdowns unless and until raging flare ups occur. Politicians who relaxed countermeasures will pay a heavy price...on the flip side, if things don't deteriorate, the popular uprising against restrictions may flip key states another way entirely.

In America, I think we're about to see the left and most of the media (all but a few broadcast outlets and nearly all major daily newspapers) aligned against the right and its fewer outlets (few broadcast, fewer major dailies, but lots of radio and internet).

I remain mostly optimistic for my region and similar non-urban regions, but this has been a tough booger.

[Canoerebel]

Here's another glimmer of hope. These new projections call for the US to have 2,205 deaths today (with a much broader margin of error). Deep into the day, with most states reporting now, Wordlometers shows the US with 896. On the day, the nation will likely report less than 1/2 what is projected.

[Canoerebel]

An other - at this point, 16 states have reported no deaths today. That's a huge increase over one week ago.

Right now, mortality and new cases are on the decline in the US. If there is going to be a covid resurgence due to easing of countermeasures, soon we should see a big rise in new cases, followed not long thereafter by mortality. Georgia began easing countermeasures 10 days ago. Thus far, no marked increases in either category. It could be too soon, but we're nearing the point where we should see things, if they're going to happen. I haven't picked up any sign that the non-urban population is concerned. We'll have a better sense of things in a week or two.

I've been fixed on IHME projections for nearly five weeks now. It always tantalized with the prospect of the pandemic basically ending or drastically tailing off...soon, soon, soon! Now suddenly it's presenting the prospect of a never-ending battle. Arg. I don't think I want to watch this day by day for week upon week. I think I'd rather disappear for three weeks on the Appalachian Trail, come back home and find out what happened after all. But no can do.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Big sea change in projections today. I saw a few reports hinting at it this a.m., then more on CBS radio news around noontime. Then got home and found dramatic changes in the Univ. Washington (IHME) projections for the US, the states, and some other countries. These are major, troubling alterations that will have all kinds of ramifications. A few examples:

US death toll projected to increase from about 72k to about 133k (by the end of August). Georgia death toll from 2k to 5k, remaining basically level for the entire summer (this after IHME dropped Georgia by 25% late last week). UK up several thousand or more.

Major changes were made in the models, assumptions, and/or data input. I haven't seen the breakdown yet (we'll probably hear all about it from warring politicians and talk show hosts in coming days), but it had to come from some major shift in viewpoint - presumably the easing of countermeasures (Georgia increased 2.5x while states like NJ and NY rose more modestly) but possibly other factors instead or too. Perhaps information that warm weather won't have a salutary effect. What is clear that there doesn't seem to be a perceived 2nd round in the fall - these projections seem to call for a more or less steady fight in many jurisdictions throughout the summer.

As noted, projections for NJ and NY, among others, do continue to drop. One wonders how. If others states are spiking, would these states close their borders?

I hope these new projections are wrong. There is some hope for that. IF we've learned one thing it's that protecting the elderly/sick is paramount. Nobody's eased those measures yet, to my knowledge. Also, in just a short time we've learned how to impose restrictions, abide by them (more or less) and get by. And we flattened the curve so that most medical communities aren't currently overwhelmed.

There may or may not be other things going on here. It can't be dismissed out of hand because this has become so politicized. There's so much at stake. I don't think many Americans will tolerate extensive further lockdowns unless and until raging flare ups occur. Politicians who relaxed countermeasures will pay a heavy price...on the flip side, if things don't deteriorate, the popular uprising against restrictions may flip key states another way entirely.

In America, I think we're about to see the left and most of the media (all but a few broadcast outlets and nearly all major daily newspapers) aligned against the right and its fewer outlets (few broadcast, fewer major dailies, but lots of radio and internet).

I remain mostly optimistic for my region and similar non-urban regions, but this has been a tough booger.

There is an extended explanation for their revised estimates at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

Extended enough that I'm a little bit hesitant of attempting to summarise. If I was going to have a go at picking out three major points of explanation for the large increase it would be
1) That the states that have been worse affected are not seeing the sharp drop in deaths after their peaks that was originally projected. That would be consistent with what has been seen in Italy/Spain where daily/weekly deaths have stubbornly refused to fall away.
2) That in national terms even the modest drops in daily deaths in the worst affected areas are being counterbalanced by increases in deaths elsewhere so that the overall numbers have remained roughly stable - the 'table-top' effect discussed a few days ago.
3) This is the most disputable I think - they are linking increased population mobility (both observed and predicted) to increased numbers of deaths.

That would be my reading of it. I would say that I've just an undergraduate level of statistical understanding. Zilch level of epidemiology/medical expertise. I'd be interested to hear the thoughts of those far better qualified than me.

It's worth remembering that they have been significantly wrong in both directions so far. But the more data they get (at least with the first two points) you'd imagine the more accurate their projections will be.

[MakeeLearn]

Nearly every Mass. coronavirus death was patient with underlying medical condition, data shows
April 28, 2020


https://whdh.com/news/nearly-every-mass ... ata-shows/


"Data from deaths following completed investigations indicate 98.1 percent (1,289) of people who died after contracting the disease had an underlying condition, such as chronic lung disease, serious heart ailments, obesity, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, or liver disease."

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Sammy, for offering that.

The one thing that stands out is that so many deaths have been in the elderly. We're handling that much differently now, so I would be surprised to see the same level of mortality going forward. But the modelers may see other things that give them pause.

On the other hand, these modelers once had the US at 100k to 240k, then as low as 60k, and now back up at 95k to 240k. Hopefully history repeats itself, with another sharp decline.

[MakeeLearn]

The number of Coronavirus deaths may need to be expressed algebraically:


X= pre-existing condition

Y= age

[:'(]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
I can't fathom a country that would release a virus among their own population...

Lowpe, you don't have to go back very far in Chinese history to see woeful treatment of the people for any number of reasons, some political, some otherwise. "Great Leap Forward", "Cultural Revolution", "Tianamen Square massacre" as a sacrifice for their politics.

The great Yellow River flood of 1938, which killed 900,000-3.4MM Chinese was an experiment in irrigation designed to hold off Japanese troops during their offensive. It didn't work. Chang-Kai-Shek shrugged his shoulders. Meh.

A country whose leaders are authoritarian, with no representation of the average individual is ripe for this sort of 'experiment' means to further their ends. Particularly if they don't really care about any ideas or ideologies other than their own narrow view. I wouldn't put anything past them.

In terms of death tolls I think the Yellow River Flood you are talking about is the 1931 flood. The 1938 flood is thought to have a ceiling of 800k deaths.

800k is still a frightening number.

Yeah, you're right. 900,000 seems to be the coalesced number of deaths for the intentional 1938 Yellow river flooding. My earlier citation of 3.4MM was the (low) estimate of refugees (some estimates say as high as 10MM). Many of these refugees, of course, perished on the forced migration from the Yellow river area between Wuhan and Shanghai to Chungking and other parts West of Wuhan.

But I trust my point is not lost?

[MakeeLearn]

Heart Disease Was Underlying Condition In 60% Of Oregon's COVID-19 Deaths April 30, 2020

https://www.opb.org/news/article/covid- ... se-oregon/



"All those who died in the state from the coronavirus had underlying health conditions, said health authority spokesman Jonathan Modie. Almost 60% had cardiovascular disease, according to a table published by the Oregon Health Authority late Tuesday. The data, based on case interviews and medical records of 73 people who died, marked the first time the agency specified what the underlying conditions have been."

[MakeeLearn]

Coronavirus: patterns of illness and death mainly mirror what was already happening before the pandemic April 30, 2020

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus ... mic-136572

"Given the variation in deaths, can we determine whether more people are dying in the UK from COVID-19, compared with the number of deaths from all causes that normally occur?

At the end of March 2020, the pattern of deaths was normal, but in early April the number of respiratory disease deaths (including COVID-19) climbed above the number expected based on historical rates. "


"Death rates due to COVID-19 are highest in older people and serious illness and mortality are more common in men. It would be easy to conclude that COVID-19 is a problem mainly in old people and men, yet early information on deaths from this disease suggests that patterns of illness and death mainly mirror what was already happening before the pandemic.

Most deaths (84%) occur in people over 65 years of age and two-thirds (68%) in people over 75 years. When it comes to gender, men die earlier and have a shorter life expectancy at birth (79 years) than women (83 years). The tricky area is understanding the underlying reasons some people die or become more severely ill from COVID-19. To understand what makes certain people more susceptible to this disease, we need to examine the other things that make us ill in the short and long term. "

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've been fixed on IHME projections for nearly five weeks now. It always tantalized with the prospect of the pandemic basically ending or drastically tailing off...soon, soon, soon! Now suddenly it's presenting the prospect of a never-ending battle. Arg. I don't think I want to watch this day by day for week upon week. I think I'd rather disappear for three weeks on the Appalachian Trail, come back home and find out what happened after all. But no can do.

This is really tough - I agree and empathise. You've spoken previously of your optimism - I think that is a commendable trait. With that in mind I'd suggest you hold onto what happened a month (is it that long?) ago where initially high projections started dropping precipitously as more data came in. Hopefully that pattern will repeat itself.

My entirely uninformed prediction would be that the US death toll by August will be at c.100k. That is awful but not apocalyptic. c.600k people died of cancer in the US last year.

On the other hand, for me the great unknown is still what happens in the autumn/winter. If all of the 'informational dice' come up 1s it could be really dreadful. If everything comes up 6s then it could be burnt off by October - either through climate or though large numbers of unrecorded infections. If they come up 3s then maybe the US will see another 200-300k deaths in that period - still well below cancer deaths.

I think we are in this for the long run for the time being. With that in mind my suggestion if it is starting to take its toll would be to try and 'ration' your involvement in the day-to-day data/political controversies.

[Edit - the 600k figure for cancer deaths last year is a predicted figure. Going by what I can see from the CDC the most recent 'actual' figure was in 2016 - also roughly 600k)

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy




Lowpe, you don't have to go back very far in Chinese history to see woeful treatment of the people for any number of reasons, some political, some otherwise. "Great Leap Forward", "Cultural Revolution", "Tianamen Square massacre" as a sacrifice for their politics.

The great Yellow River flood of 1938, which killed 900,000-3.4MM Chinese was an experiment in irrigation designed to hold off Japanese troops during their offensive. It didn't work. Chang-Kai-Shek shrugged his shoulders. Meh.

A country whose leaders are authoritarian, with no representation of the average individual is ripe for this sort of 'experiment' means to further their ends. Particularly if they don't really care about any ideas or ideologies other than their own narrow view. I wouldn't put anything past them.

In terms of death tolls I think the Yellow River Flood you are talking about is the 1931 flood. The 1938 flood is thought to have a ceiling of 800k deaths.

800k is still a frightening number.

Yeah, you're right. 900,000 seems to be the coalesced number of deaths for the intentional 1938 Yellow river flooding. My earlier citation of 3.4MM was the (low) estimate of refugees (some estimates say as high as 10MM). Many of these refugees, of course, perished on the forced migration from the Yellow river area between Wuhan and Shanghai to Chungking and other parts West of Wuhan.

But I trust my point is not lost?

Not at all - I agree with the general gist of your argument.

[MakeeLearn]

Tightly-packed protest outside State House pushes for reopening economy
2 hrs ago


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/tight ... li=BBnb7Kz


"A large crowd of protesters gathered Monday afternoon on Beacon Street outside the gate of the Massachusetts State House to push for a reopening of the economy and an end to the restrictions imposed because of the coronavirus outbreak."

"Some of the protesters carries signs with slogans saying "End shutdown" and "Tyranny is not leadership." While some of the attendees wore masks, many others did not."

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Coronavirus: patterns of illness and death mainly mirror what was already happening before the pandemic April 30, 2020

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus ... mic-136572

"Given the variation in deaths, can we determine whether more people are dying in the UK from COVID-19, compared with the number of deaths from all causes that normally occur?

At the end of March 2020, the pattern of deaths was normal, but in early April the number of respiratory disease deaths (including COVID-19) climbed above the number expected based on historical rates. "


"Death rates due to COVID-19 are highest in older people and serious illness and mortality are more common in men. It would be easy to conclude that COVID-19 is a problem mainly in old people and men, yet early information on deaths from this disease suggests that patterns of illness and death mainly mirror what was already happening before the pandemic.

Most deaths (84%) occur in people over 65 years of age and two-thirds (68%) in people over 75 years. When it comes to gender, men die earlier and have a shorter life expectancy at birth (79 years) than women (83 years). The tricky area is understanding the underlying reasons some people die or become more severely ill from COVID-19. To understand what makes certain people more susceptible to this disease, we need to examine the other things that make us ill in the short and long term. "

There is a lot of sense in that article. Potentially in 5 years time you'd be able to look at the 2020-2025 numbers of deaths and not discern any significant difference in that 5 year period compared to previous ones - but with the deaths 'front-loaded' in the first year and a half. But I think it is very difficult for politicians to make that kind of 'bargaining' explicit though. In the UK at least that is made even more difficult (quite rightly in my opinion) in the face of the evidence suggesting that BAME populations are being hit disproportionately.

[Cap Mandrake]

Pre-existing conditions:

BMI>26...anyone? Anyone?

High blood pressure...anyone?

Neither of these I find comforting. [:)]

[Cap Mandrake]

It can't simply be your pressure is at the "target goal"...you still have a pre-existing conditions. Now, if you have to be weighed on a veterinary scale when you go in to see the doctor....well....never mind.