The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[paullus99]

Marcus would definitely be a thorn in John's side, but Canoe would need to bring 100% prepped troops & be prepared for a sharp response (since John's carriers would be relatively close by).

[obvert]

Big tent is big, I'd think. Marcus is not big.

[Jellicoe]

I reckon it's the Carolines and maybe hollandia as well - cuts off Swpac and Truk, avoids fortress Mariana and threatens Southern Philippines. Would have wanted Gilbert's or Ponape to secure LOC a bit more for this though

[AcePylut]

It's going to be an invasion of Marcus "as Canoe is passing by" on his way to the Marianas.

[paullus99]

I think the Marianas would be a victim of "linear" thinking - obviously they are now vulnerable due to the recent carrier battle, success in the Marshalls, and the fall of Wake....they are too "obvious."

I expect Canoe is going to employ more dynamic thinking & hit somewhere John hasn't had months to reinforce.

[Flicker]

paullus99 - I don't disagree, however there is value in the 'linear' route. The Marianas are the next point in a straight line to Luzon and Manila. I don't know how developed the Marianas are, but I suspect CR has an idea. If they do not have interlocking airbases now, they would after CR takes them.

crsutton IMO rightly says: "Late game play really demands a major advanced ship yard. Manila, Hong Kong or Singapore. One of them must be taken." Manila it is then.

Perhaps the Death Star can do it and make it costly for the probably-not-totally-emasculated KB.

[AcePylut]

Manila is too far to support as there are too many IJ bases that can interdict at the present time. It's the Marianas!

[Encircled]

I'm an JFB, but just how many divisions can Canoe have fully prepped for Big Tent?

He lost a few in Sumatra, and has used units in the Aleutians, Marshalls and Wake.

Will he have enough for the Marianas?

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

I'm an JFB, but just how many divisions can Canoe have fully prepped for Big Tent?

He lost a few in Sumatra, and has used units in the Aleutians, Marshalls and Wake.

Will he have enough for the Marianas?

I don't think he has enough to capture all of the Marianas at once. But I think he has enough to capture the Marianas in stages. If CR can capture Tinian and Pagan, the battle for control of the Marianas will come down to who can keep their bases in supply and operational. My money is on the USN.

[KenchiSulla]

Before Okinawa comes the Marianas...

[JeffroK]

Marcus is a dot in the sea, stacking of ???, totally unsupported and so easy to isolate. The Marianas makes more sense.

IMVHO JIII hasnt been hit so hard as to try something too "out there"

[JohnDillworth]

not yet me thinks. not the Philippines. With the KB at heel (for now) the advantage lies with attacking places that do not have interlocking airfields

[Flicker]

JohnD - lol, I would think that NOW is the time to attack a place with interlocking airfields (like the Marianas) because now is when they are most vulnerable (without KB). Maybe by the time KB shows up, they'll be CR's interlocking airfields with US fighters and the Death Star. I wonder about the numbers for the ports / airfields / forts in the Marianas.

I think the Marianas (and Marcus in passing) then Manila (as in Luzon in Spring 1944), with supporting operations to clean up the flanks in the Marshalls, Solomons, and Carolines.

I might even start with a big Marshalls op to pull the Japanese that way...

[JeffroK]

JohnD - lol, I would think that NOW is the time to attack a place with interlocking airfields (like the Marianas) because now is when they are most vulnerable (without KB). Maybe by the time KB shows up, they'll be CR's interlocking airfields with US fighters and the Death Star. I wonder about the numbers for the ports / airfields / forts in the Marianas.

How damaged is KB????

2 or 3 confirmed sunk.

Most of the losses were aircraft and CVE/CVL.

Given a few weeks to rebuild aircraft numbers, and maybe rearrange pilots, it should be as string as pre "The Battle of Wake"

There is insufficient action around the map to divert resources so everything is focused on the Central Pacific.

Maybe time is past for small steps, but far from ready for giant leaps into the Gorilla Cage.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Marcus is a dot in the sea, stacking of ???, totally unsupported and so easy to isolate. The Marianas makes more sense.

IMVHO JIII hasnt been hit so hard as to try something too "out there"

Lots of good posts since I last checked in - too many to reply to. But JeffK hits the nail on the head with regard to Marcus - I don't think it's particularly hard to take but it's would be hard to hold unless part of an "umbrella" of Allied objectives, such as Shokaku, Kyushu, Okinawa and/or the Bonins.

Whether that's the plan, I won't reveal in detail. But I can offer that a US Army division has been prepping for Marcus.

Marcus's value is greater than it might first seem because it further unhinges John's entire perimeter - take it and suddenly the Marshalls seem irrelevant as John has to fully attend to the places I just listed. If he's not prepared, he has to scramble.

I agree that KB isn't gutted, but I think Death Star can go where it wants to as long as it doesn't venture into waters where KB can join with multiple big interlocking airfields.

So, is Marcus on the agenda? Stay tuned.

[Canoerebel]

There are problems with nearly any target: Hokkaido is now well defended, Shokaku and Kyushu are within the umbrella of Home Island airfields, Okinawa is within the main perimeter, the various Philippines groups have major interlocking arifields and will have the Marianas to their back unless I first attend to those, the Marianas are tough nuts and I don't have a good port to replenish from (as I did in the campaign vs. Wake, which limits bombardments, so that's a big concern), and so it goes as I continue to evaluate potential targets. Some of those are still high-priority targets under consideration, but there are others out there also, ranging as far away as Timor and Java.

[JohnDillworth]

BTW, how was vacation? Got some terrible weather. hope you made the best of it.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for asking, John. We got rain one night and some light rain part of one day. That was it for "foul" weather.

I like rain at the beach and usually spend as much time in the water then as when it's sunny. The humidity was pretty low most of the week, which made the breeze seem too cool (evaporative effect).

We returned home today, where it was 97 degrees and humid. Ouch! It's summertime in Georgia.

How're things on Long Island these days?

[JohnDillworth]

How're things on Long Island these days?

humid today but in general a cool wet spring. It can get pretty hot and humid in this part of the world in the summer. 97 and humid is not rare. Been too busy at work to notice.

[Bif1961]

Since you are entertaining ideas about where to go next, I will suggest Southern Java puts you astride most oilfields with 4E bombers and then allows you to go into Borneo, Southern PI or Malaysia. There would be plenty of airfields to take and support your initial landings and future plans plus it avoids and avenges your recent loses in Northern Sumatra.