The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

I'm trying to get a handle on what KB might look like today. Doing that requires a guesstimate as to which carriers might be expedited for early delivery. Some of you will know better than I. (Bear in mind this is Scenario 70, in which John gets some extra CVs, so some of these names might not be familiar to you):

Here are carriers due in later '44 and '45. Do you think any of these could conceivably arrive this early?

1. Unryu (11/44)
2. Amagi (11/44)
3. Katsuragi (9/45)
4. Aso (6/45)
5. Ikoma (6/45)
6. CVL Ibuki (10/44)
7. CVL Kurama (12/44)

I'm thinking these puppies aren't available, but if there's any chance, please let me know. In that case, please email some Pepto Bismal.


If I'm correct that those ships are not available, then KB might have as many as 750 aircraft:
1. Akagi (75) - she was damaged, but I have to assume she's available.
2. Hiryu (69) - ditto
3. Soryu (63)
4. Shokaku (72)
5. Junyo (58)
6. Ryukaku (81)
7. Taikaku (81)
8. Renkaku (81)
9. CVL Ryuuo (48)
10. CVL Shoho (31)
11. CVL Zuiho (31)
12. CVL Ryuo (31)
13. CVL Nisshin (31) (she might've been sunk, but I'm not sure yet)

I need to count Allied carrier aircraft, but I think the total is about 1100. That's a lot, but it's not a big enough disparity to take liberties. If John times a KB pounce right to coincide with LBA the contest could be one to one.

So Big Tent is turning into a Big Gulp. I'm going, but this is no lark.

[Canoerebel]

Death Star (including CVEs) will have about 1285 aircraft.

If I'm right about the '44 carriers not being available, then allowing for all damaged IJN CVs to be present, John will have 750 carrier aircraft. He's outnumbered by 500. That's enough to make him cautious, but if he gets lucky in weeding out some carriers (subs, LBA) then things become dicey.

The Allies do have a few things going for them. First, John will have to be careful not to allow Death Star to get a whack at KB away from LBA. Second, any large enemy strikes might get chewed up by flak or might get distracted by the target rich environment.

[BillBrown]

The first 3 CVs could be available.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Bill.

I wonder if I'm taking too long a chance? Should I be content to gang up on closer targets like Marcus and Eniwetok rather than steaming into the jungle, where there is a wounded but still dangerous lion?

[JohnDillworth]

I wonder if I'm taking too long a chance? Should I be content to gang up on closer targets like Marcus and Eniwetok rather than steaming into the jungle, where there is a wounded but still dangerous lion?

You do realize yo get like this before every big operation don't you?[&:][&:][&:]

[ny59giants]

1, 2, 6, 7 ARE built, IMO. John loves to bring in his big boys in pairs, if possible. The other 3 CVs are probably close to completion.

[Flicker]

Welcome to the jungle!

For all I know you have a good plan, adequately resourced. You are looking for trouble and you're not only prepared for it, my guess is that you'd like to find some - but not too much.

"Let's go, boys! We've got the damn Yankees on the run ..." - Joe Wheeler (makes as much sense now as when Fightin' Joe supposedly said it)

[Canoerebel]

Really? Geez! I don't mind a one on one matchup if it's in the open, but it's tough to envision a big battle close by some Japanese level seven airfield where I have no safe route of egress.

It would be tough to cancel at this late date...but yikes!

Is there any way of pinning this down more precisely? In order to expedite carriers, does he have to forego other building? IE, is it relevant that some of his other carriers were expedited and BBs Yamato and Musashi appeared on schedule?

I'm grasping for straws.

[Canoerebel]

Fightin' Joe had a pretty mediocre record but a great nickname. He let down the army commanders pretty often, failing to scout, deploy skirmishers and pickets, and report properly. Darn it.

[Flicker]

Aw, Wheeler wasn't that bad. Wheeler graduated from the USMA in 1859, then the 'War Child' resigned his commission as 2nd Lieutenant of dragoons and returned to Georgia when the Civil War started. He distinguished himself at Shiloh, and then in Kentucky, Tennessee and Georgia. After the war he was elected to Congress from North Alabama and then served in the US Army again, as Cavalry Commander in the Spanish American War. He was good to his men, but tough on the 16 horses shot out from under him.

Wheeler lived in Courtland Alabama about 45 miles west of me (Huntsville). His house is preserved as an historic site.

IMO stick with your plan. Maybe send some fellows to the Marianas (or equivalent) to secure your egress - how many divisions are in your garrison corps at Pearl? Can you find enough shipping to get one of those divisions afloat?

[Canoerebel]

I'm toying with a number of possibilities, ranging from "stick to the plan" to "modify the plan in fun ways."

The trouble with taking on a newly-selected strongly-garrisoned target (like an island in the Marianas) is that I don't have prep and my BBs won't be able to replenish. So I think that particular variation is a no go.

But there are a number of different ideas that I'm exploring. One thing's for sure - I won't just be sitting around twiddling my thumbs waiting for something to happen. The Allies are resuming the offensive one way or the other, somewhere or another.

P.S. Wheeler was a distinguished officer and I love his role in the Spanish-American War, but he fouled up badly during the Chickamauga and Atlanta campaigns.

[crsutton]

The first three carriers are glass cannons. They don't carry enough planes and their durability is not that great. With a 2-1 advantage in aircraft and the advanced state of your AA armament, I would not fear Japanese air power that much. However, the real problem with driving into the hornet's nest is how quickly your supply of AA ammo can be depleted. You got enough for a couple of major battles though and that may be enough to crack his air power. I would definitely have a replenishment TF standing by with VR squadrons. They are a real force multiplier.

[Canoerebel]

10/21/43

When I started backpacking the Appalachian Trail with my (then) young boys, planning for a trip was intense. It was a complicated undertaking - what clothes? what food? what gear? shopping; packing; how far to go? who would pick us up when we finished? where? how would we contact them (I don't have a cell phone)? As the date of departure neared, the uncertainties and risks would weigh on me - poisonous snakes, bears, wild boars, ticks, and the occasional roaming lunatic. But above all, I worried about being caught on an exposed ridge during a thunderstorm. I wouldn't sleep well a night or two before leaving. Then the morning of departure would arrive and bring blessed relief. It was no longer a matter of planning or worrying. From that moment forward it was a matter of putting one step in front of another - remaining vigilant and responsible. We have indeed encountered poisonous snakes, bears, ticks, biting flies, thunderstorms, cold rain, and even the occasional wandering curmudgeon. But we took them one at a time while experiencing the magnificent adventures that have come to mean so much to us.

Big Tent: I spent a troubled, restless evening fretting over the potential strength of KB and the audacity and risks of this plan. I weighed the options - proceed? cancel? modify? go with an alternate?

Ultimately, I decided to proceed for now with the plan, though also adding a alternative that I liked and which helped ease my mind. Enough good APAs, AKAs and AKs just arrived so that I loaded a division for a closer, safer (but very toughly defended) target. That way if something goes wrong while Big Tent rolls towards its objectives, I can divert to this secondary target that has clear routes of egress to nearby Allied bases.

A tremendous number of transports are already at sea, moving towards the first rendezvous point. Most of the other transports will depart Pearl tomorrow. A few will be a day further behind but can catch up as the massive armada will undoubtedly move slowly. The bulk of the carriers and combat ships will depart Pearl in two or three days, though a covering CVE TF and a combat TF are accompanying the transports, mainly against the threat of a wandering raiding DD TF.

Part of the planning involved pre-positioning quantities of fuel at far-flung islands (Midway, Christmas, Suva, Auckland) to serve in the case the armada has to retire short on fuel. But one of these will also serve the combat ships as they head out, topping off fuel so that they're flush.

Support ships (AD, AS, AE, AKE) are included in the invasion, both others are pre-positioned at some of these bases - again, just in case the combat ships run short during the operation and need to replenish while egressing.

I've noticed that John has been surprisingly engaged over the past few weeks. I say "surprised," because I had expected demoralization after the Great Naval Battle of Wake Island. At first, I attributed his energy his carrier raid against the LOC between Wake and Midway (which drilled a dry hole). Now I wonder if he's received carrier replacements and feels like he is ready to stand up to Death Star. That's what rattles my nerves.

SigInt still looks very good. There has been some small activity on the periphery of the Big Tent area of operations, but nothing of concern. I'm reconning Marcus and Pagan, Truk and Ponape. John is reinforcing Marcus and Pagan and there is lots of activity in the Marshalls. Those are logical targets that have been undergarrisoned and therefore at risk, so I think he's probably most concerned about them and the associated islands chains (Carolines, Bonins).

Bearded Lady: Lots of enemy activity at Ro-Namur. Eniwetok, Ponape, and Kusaie are also strongly garrisoned. Enemy CAP keeps downing half a dozen PBYs each turn, so I'm going to try using search vectors.

Lion Tamer: My amphibious TF commander will be court-martialed. He's putting only support troops ashore at Koumac, an open IJ base, while the combat troops remain aboard ship.

[Canoerebel]

The biggest change over the 24 hours is this: Previously the plan was to set sail and focus solely on arriving at the objective, secure in the knowledge that the armada was far too strong for John to take on. Now it's this: keep the armada tightly gathered, and at all times look for opportunities to strike enemy carriers or combat ships.

[ny59giants]

Were you able to get some of your carrier capable Corsairs aboard a few CVs? If so, how many?

[Canoerebel]

The carriers haven't left town yet. I have two small Marine squadrons with F4U-1As (I didn't have quite enough to swap out a big Hellcat squadron). Before the carriers leave, I'll configure them so that each carriers the optimal number of aircraft - in the case of the fleet CVs, 100 planes each. In doing so, I'll make sure that two CVs get the Corsair squadrons.

[jwolf]

I've noticed that John has been surprisingly engaged over the past few weeks. I say "surprised," because I had expected demoralization after the Great Naval Battle of Wake Island. At first, I attributed his energy his carrier raid against the LOC between Wake and Midway (which drilled a dry hole). Now I wonder if he's received carrier replacements and feels like he is ready to stand up to Death Star. That's what rattles my nerves.

Historically, one Midway debacle doomed the IJ fleet. In this mod, it looks like it will take 2 or maybe even 3 such defeats to do the job.

[Canoerebel]

I really like one tweak to the plan. At Pearl, there was an Army RCT 100% for an atoll not involved in Big Tent. It is slated for withdrawal in 41 days. But that atoll became the "alternative target" referred to two posts above. If I don't divert to that target, and I hope I don't, then this RCT will be used to scout the only atoll involved in Big Tent. If in landing it shows the atoll isn't strongly garrisoned, I won't have to expend BB ammo in bombardments. If it is strongly garrisoned, I can then weigh whether it's worth invading (the atoll is an important base but not one of the five major targets - I'd like to have it, but not at the expense of getting bogged down in a major and protracted amphibious assault). That landing will take place in roughly 25 days, meaning the unit goes "poof" two weeks later. That's one of the few times I can use the idiosyncrasies of this game effectively (unlike the ship withdrawal rules that frequently crop up in the strangest circumstances and most inconvenient times - like when the ship has 75 FLT damage and can't withdraw).

[Canoerebel]

10/22/43

Big Tent: Pearl is emptying. Troop numbers down from 270k to 95k. Ship numbers down from 700 to 200 (100 more - combat ships mostly - will depart tonight). Supply down from 1500k to 1000k. Fuel down from 900k to 700k.

Two carrier TFs and a big Fletcher TF will depart tonight. The final carrier and combat ships will move out tomorrow (thee last ones are all schedule to complete repairs then).

Three carriers squadrons got F4U-1As - two 18-plane squadrons and one 23-plane squadron. The carriers are weighted towards fighters. Offensive action is possible against KB (John may throw caution to the wind), but defense against LBA will almost certainly be needed.

John got lots of sightings of TFs in the vicnity of French Frigate, probably from a Glen-equipped sub. This came surprisingly early, making it more important that I give him reason to believe the targets might be Marcus, Pagan or the Carolines. I've been reconning the first two for a few days. Tomorrow, Saipan is the target (having Wake is very helpful from this standpoint too).

The armada will be following the Big Tent vector for the next week to 10 days. Eventually, I'll reach the point where I have to choose: either commit fully to Big Tent or divert to the alternative (simpler, closer, better route of egress) target. I won't divert unless I've encountered major setbacks or something highly alarming has taken place. So, "commitment day" is probably about 10 days away. In the meantime, Allied ships will steam into enemy waters.

The first targets are about two weeks away. One is a dot hex that should be vacant. The other is the atoll that may or may not be defended (which I will "test" per my previous post).

Tense. Fun.

Bearded Lady: John is reconning in the Marshalls - specifically Jaluit. I don't foresee him engaging in amphibious assaults against hardened targets here or anywhere, but it's remotely possible.

Lion Tamer: Finally the captain sees fit to land some infantry at Koumac. The base will probably auto-flip tomorrow.

[Lokasenna]

I think I've got it. At least, I think I know what the atoll is.