OT: Corona virus

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

industry can grow back and the economy can be fixed

In the long run, but then again in the long run we are all dead anyhow.

[JohnDillworth]

Thanks for providing the source.
[/quote]

So, this source is spot on with the current mortality in Georgia (and may have used it in modeling) and is somewhat more optimistic about the future for the state than IHME is.

Thanks for providing the source.

I just hope those numbers hold. Once they get above 1.0 you are heading in the wrong direction. Watch it day to day. They are creeping up. If you take NY State out of the countries total numbers things are not as good as I would like. It took a while but it got to the rural areas, who are probably not prepared to deal with it. Terrible whats happening in some of the meat packing towns. This thing loves lots of people crowded into small spaces.
Family is good. Got 3 students working out of the house so the Internet had to be upgraded to 400MPS. I live in a village in the suburbs on Long Island Sound so at least we have beaches to walk around. Had a couple of antibody tests. My wife and I are both negative, which is actually a bit disappointing but I guess if I got Covid I wouldn't think so
City is still figuring out how to come back to life. 911 calls are now back down to pre Covid levels but we have a 311 system that takes all non emergency calls for any services or City services. With everything shut 311 is getting slammed. We have added 200 call takers and are trying to keep up with capacity. We had them all over the City but just signed an emergency lease for 2 floors in lower Manhattan. No idea what comes next. We are installing plexiglass between desks at some locations with low cube walls. Didn't take long for he HR police to correct my language. They are not "Plexiglass" They are "Hygienic Barriers". What ever. We might try and bring a small percentage of folks back starting June 1 but that remains to be seen. The transit system is a mess NY isn't designed for everyone to drive to work. Crazy stuff. They can't keep up with the bodies so they fill up a trailer and move it to lot in Brooklyn. Every day another couple of trailers. I think they are freezing some of them. Can't get a cremation or burial for up to 6 weeks. I'm back to split shifts so I'm only on site every other day. It's been cold and wet here so people are generally staying inside but on the sunny warm days every one gets out. Glad I don't live in the inner city any more. Say safe

[obvert]

I'm posting this not as an attack but because I feel based on all of the evidence over the past nearly four months, South Korea is the model to follow until a vaccine is developed (if that ever does get developed successfully).

It's simply a coincidence that the first known case in the US was nearly at the same time as the first in South Korea. From what I've heard now about cases being active in France in December and in NY in January. I think many more cases were active in the US in these early months than we now know, growing fast and with stealth in less vulnerable populations.

The difference in the US and Korean methods of reaction are not due to just a difference in the situation or the populace and habits. We've know this for a while from our local there Commander Cody. This means though that every country could do what they're doing. We just have to do it.

This article expounds on their methods and the reason they were so ready for this pandemic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... et/611215/

In the time that South Korea righted its course, the United States veered into disaster. In mid-March, the U.S. and South Korea had the same number of coronavirus-caused fatalities—approximately 90. In April, South Korea lost a total of 85 souls to COVID-19, while the U.S. lost 62,000—an average of 85 deaths every hour. That the U.S. population is approximately six times larger than South Korea’s does little to soften the horror of the comparison.

Juxtaposing the South Korean response with the American tragedy, some commentators have chalked up the difference to an ancient culture of docile collectivism and Confucianism across the Pacific. This observation isn’t just racist. It also exoticizes South Korea’s success and makes it seem like the inevitable result of millennia of cultural accretion, rather than something the U.S., or any other country, can learn from right now. The truth is that the Korean government and its citizens did something simple, admirable, and all too rare: They suffered from history, and they learned from it.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Obvert isn't in the room, at the moment. He may be mowing the grass or painting a wall, but he mentioned Tuesday that Mrs. Obvert is due any minute now. Continued best wishes to the family.

Thanks. Still waiting. Fingers crossed it's soon.

[Lowpe]

I believe I found the owner of the worldometer website. I am looking for more confirmations, so far I have two but they site the same source.

https://dadax.cn/en/about-dadax/

which is far different than their website says...I don't know where the truth lies, probably somewhere between?

Worldometer is run by an international team of developers, researchers, and volunteers with the goal of making world statistics available in a thought-provoking and time relevant format to a wide audience around the world. It is published by a small and independent digital media company based in the United States. We have no political, governmental, or corporate affiliation. Furthermore, we have no investors, donors, grants, or backers of any type. We are completely independent and self-financed through automated programmatic advertising sold in real time on multiple ad exchanges.

I am just not sure I can trust this:

Worldometer,[2] formerly Worldometers (plural), is a reference website that provides counters and real-time statistics for diverse topics. It is owned and operated by data company Dadax[3][4] which generates revenue through online advertising.[5]

[Canoerebel]

Ugg. Not very impressed with The Atlantic's analysis.

I haven't seen a single report associating Korea's success with some kind of racially negative analysis. Every report in here, and every thing I've seen outside, has associated its success with early detection and quick countermeasures. The insertion of racism allegations undermines the message and the author's credibility.

More than that, the author seems to draw flawed conclusions. The focal point of Korea's early outbreak was the church service in Daegu, as noted in The Atlantic story. That happened in February (see another version here: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... s-outbreak). If that was the origin or the main point of genesis, the outbreak in Korea possibly happened later than in the US and may have had one primary point of ignition (the congregation in Daegu), facilitating efforts to contact trace, isolate and treat. By mid February, countries were much more on guard than in January and earlier. Primed to react. Not so in January. Heck, in January, nobody may have looked for Covid, thus completely missing diagnoses.

In contrast, the virus may have arrived in America at multiple unknown points earlier - January or perhaps before that. The arrival wasn't noticed, there was little if any chance that early to identify and contact trace, etc.

Very, very different scenarios. Korea has done well and is the envy of most every western nation. We should emulate, if possible. But comparing the genesis of the pandemic in the US to Korea, and tossing in racism allegations to boot, doesn't seem to have merit.

Captain Beefheart will hopefully weigh in with his thoughts.

ORIGINAL: obvert

I'm posting this not as an attack but because I feel based on all of the evidence over the past nearly four months, South Korea is the model to follow until a vaccine is developed (if that ever does get developed successfully).

It's simply a coincidence that the first known case in the US was nearly at the same time as the first in South Korea. From what I've heard now about cases being active in France in December and in NY in January. I think many more cases were active in the US in these early months than we now know, growing fast and with stealth in less vulnerable populations.

The difference in the US and Korean methods of reaction are not due to just a difference in the situation or the populace and habits. We've know this for a while from our local there Commander Cody. This means though that every country could do what they're doing. We just have to do it.

This article expounds on their methods and the reason they were so ready for this pandemic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... et/611215/

In the time that South Korea righted its course, the United States veered into disaster. In mid-March, the U.S. and South Korea had the same number of coronavirus-caused fatalities—approximately 90. In April, South Korea lost a total of 85 souls to COVID-19, while the U.S. lost 62,000—an average of 85 deaths every hour. That the U.S. population is approximately six times larger than South Korea’s does little to soften the horror of the comparison.

Juxtaposing the South Korean response with the American tragedy, some commentators have chalked up the difference to an ancient culture of docile collectivism and Confucianism across the Pacific. This observation isn’t just racist. It also exoticizes South Korea’s success and makes it seem like the inevitable result of millennia of cultural accretion, rather than something the U.S., or any other country, can learn from right now. The truth is that the Korean government and its citizens did something simple, admirable, and all too rare: They suffered from history, and they learned from it.

[JohnDillworth]

A very interesting site. I like the presentation. The predictions are scary.

Curious to see what these look like in 2 or 3 weeks. If places that reopened have to lock down again it's not going to be good for morale.

[Canoerebel]

Right. That will be very hard.

That's one reason I've been following Denmark, Austria and Germany closely. Those countries began easing countermeasures as early as mid-April, thus far with no apparent serious problems. No nationwide spikes in deaths or new cases.

Georgia began easing countermeasures two weeks ago tomorrow. Thus far pretty much the same thing.

[JohnDillworth]

It's simply a coincidence that the first known case in the US was nearly at the same time as the first in South Korea. From what I've heard now about cases being active in France in December and in NY in January. I think many more cases were active in the US in these early months than we now know, growing fast and with stealth in less vulnerable populations.

As I said for NYC, "We thought we had 2 weeks only to find it had been here for a month already". It was everywhere before we knew what hit us. We didn't stand a chance. I think when we get a good count of things we will find out it was here in late 2019. Many fatalities were probably written off to the flu. Starting to see it from the nursing homes. Hundreds if not thousands were dead and they were not counted as Covid. Hope that is not true across the country. As a society we did not do well with the nursing homes.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: obvert

I'm posting this not as an attack but because I feel based on all of the evidence over the past nearly four months, South Korea is the model to follow until a vaccine is developed (if that ever does get developed successfully).

It's simply a coincidence that the first known case in the US was nearly at the same time as the first in South Korea. From what I've heard now about cases being active in France in December and in NY in January. I think many more cases were active in the US in these early months than we now know, growing fast and with stealth in less vulnerable populations.

The difference in the US and Korean methods of reaction are not due to just a difference in the situation or the populace and habits. We've know this for a while from our local there Commander Cody. This means though that every country could do what they're doing. We just have to do it.

This article expounds on their methods and the reason they were so ready for this pandemic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... et/611215/

In the time that South Korea righted its course, the United States veered into disaster. In mid-March, the U.S. and South Korea had the same number of coronavirus-caused fatalities—approximately 90. In April, South Korea lost a total of 85 souls to COVID-19, while the U.S. lost 62,000—an average of 85 deaths every hour. That the U.S. population is approximately six times larger than South Korea’s does little to soften the horror of the comparison.

Juxtaposing the South Korean response with the American tragedy, some commentators have chalked up the difference to an ancient culture of docile collectivism and Confucianism across the Pacific. This observation isn’t just racist. It also exoticizes South Korea’s success and makes it seem like the inevitable result of millennia of cultural accretion, rather than something the U.S., or any other country, can learn from right now. The truth is that the Korean government and its citizens did something simple, admirable, and all too rare: They suffered from history, and they learned from it.

Yes, Freedom comes with consequences and risks.

I, for one, hope we never become obedient drones.


and p.s.....if you felt the need to qualify up front that your weren't engaging in an attack then you probably were......

[Cap Mandrake]

The South Korean response was very good and should be applied to every geographically small country surrounded by freezing water on 3 sides and 1 million land mines on the 4th side and everyone speaks the same language.

[22sec]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

It's simply a coincidence that the first known case in the US was nearly at the same time as the first in South Korea. From what I've heard now about cases being active in France in December and in NY in January. I think many more cases were active in the US in these early months than we now know, growing fast and with stealth in less vulnerable populations.

As I said for NYC, "We thought we had 2 weeks only to find it had been here for a month already". It was everywhere before we knew what hit us. We didn't stand a chance. I think when we get a good count of things we will find out it was here in late 2019. Many fatalities were probably written off to the flu. Starting to see it from the nursing homes. Hundreds if not thousands were dead and they were not counted as Covid. Hope that is not true across the country. As a society we did not do well with the nursing homes.

If it did arrive and go unnoticed in December through February what does that imply about the measures implemented starting in March? If we make the presumption that it was here then we functioned just fine - the healthcare system barely noticed, and we didn’t force millions to suddenly become unemployed.

[Cap Mandrake]

Much of the original outbreak in South Korea was specific to one large church, which lent itself to effective contact tracing. The leader of the church was forced to apologize on live TV. [:D] To say there are no cultural reasons for their success is idiotic.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-a-sout ... 1583082110

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: obvert

I'm posting this not as an attack but because I feel based on all of the evidence over the past nearly four months, South Korea is the model to follow until a vaccine is developed (if that ever does get developed successfully).

It's simply a coincidence that the first known case in the US was nearly at the same time as the first in South Korea. From what I've heard now about cases being active in France in December and in NY in January. I think many more cases were active in the US in these early months than we now know, growing fast and with stealth in less vulnerable populations.

The difference in the US and Korean methods of reaction are not due to just a difference in the situation or the populace and habits. We've know this for a while from our local there Commander Cody. This means though that every country could do what they're doing. We just have to do it.

This article expounds on their methods and the reason they were so ready for this pandemic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... et/611215/

In the time that South Korea righted its course, the United States veered into disaster. In mid-March, the U.S. and South Korea had the same number of coronavirus-caused fatalities—approximately 90. In April, South Korea lost a total of 85 souls to COVID-19, while the U.S. lost 62,000—an average of 85 deaths every hour. That the U.S. population is approximately six times larger than South Korea’s does little to soften the horror of the comparison.

Juxtaposing the South Korean response with the American tragedy, some commentators have chalked up the difference to an ancient culture of docile collectivism and Confucianism across the Pacific. This observation isn’t just racist. It also exoticizes South Korea’s success and makes it seem like the inevitable result of millennia of cultural accretion, rather than something the U.S., or any other country, can learn from right now. The truth is that the Korean government and its citizens did something simple, admirable, and all too rare: They suffered from history, and they learned from it.

Yes, Freedom comes with consequences and risks.

I, for one, hope we never become obedient drones.


and p.s.....if you felt the need to qualify up front that your weren't engaging in an attack then you probably were......

Right on cue.

Your national stereotyping quickly confirms the need for this report. And my qualification of why I dared post it here.

Thanks again for sharing your self-proclaimed "correct" view, Hans. [;)]

[Cap Mandrake]

What the South Koreans did right:

1) Well organized game plan and DEDICATED, trained personnel ready on day 1

2) Effective testing roll-out

3) Top-down authoritarian measures not questioned

4) Tremendous geographic advantages

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Much of the original outbreak in South Korea was specific to one large church, which lent itself to effective contact tracing. The leader of the church was forced to apologize on live TV. [:D] To say there are no cultural reasons for their success is idiotic.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-a-sout ... 1583082110

Who said there are no cultural reasons for their success? Or are you saying other countries are incapable of doing what they're doing because of a lack of these "cultural reasons?"

South Korea has some very dense cities, a lot of international travel and is next door to China, with a lot of trading connections.

The only thing that led the church infections to not lead to larger populace infections was their prepared system of contact tracing and extensive testing. There have been many single instances of large know centers of infection in other countries which were not contained in the same way.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: 22sec

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

It's simply a coincidence that the first known case in the US was nearly at the same time as the first in South Korea. From what I've heard now about cases being active in France in December and in NY in January. I think many more cases were active in the US in these early months than we now know, growing fast and with stealth in less vulnerable populations.

As I said for NYC, "We thought we had 2 weeks only to find it had been here for a month already". It was everywhere before we knew what hit us. We didn't stand a chance. I think when we get a good count of things we will find out it was here in late 2019. Many fatalities were probably written off to the flu. Starting to see it from the nursing homes. Hundreds if not thousands were dead and they were not counted as Covid. Hope that is not true across the country. As a society we did not do well with the nursing homes.

If it did arrive and go unnoticed in December through February what does that imply about the measures implemented starting in March? If we make the presumption that it was here then we functioned just fine - the healthcare system barely noticed, and we didn’t force millions to suddenly become unemployed.

NY functioned just fine? You're responding to a frontline worker fro NYC in case you weren't aware. He can probably relay a lot more about how NY was not just fine.

[Canoerebel]

A few tidbits about things re-opening, here and there:

1. Schools in Montana can re-open. I heard a CBS News radio broadcast about a Willow Creek Elementary that's planning to do so. 74 staff and students. Montana has been one of the least-impacted states. The principal commented that getting just a few weeks in will help them better prepare for autumn. It'll be helpful elsewhere to see how things go.

2. Great Smoky Mountains National Park is re-opening roads and trails Saturday.

3. Our local mall food court re-opened today, after about six weeks. I resumed my tradition of eating a home-packed sandwich and store-bought drink while reading. There are only about eight open tables in the entire space, with a good 25-30 feet between each. Only one other table was occupied. (Previously it was possible to access the restaurants, but only for take-out.)

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Much of the original outbreak in South Korea was specific to one large church, which lent itself to effective contact tracing. The leader of the church was forced to apologize on live TV. [:D] To say there are no cultural reasons for their success is idiotic.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-a-sout ... 1583082110

Who said there are no cultural reasons for their success? Or are you saying other countries are incapable of doing what they're doing because of a lack of these "cultural reasons?"

The author of The Atlantic article you cited said exactly that.

It is absolutely true they had superior contact tracing. No doubt about it. As I understand it they had a war room like set-up dedicated to respond to viral outbreaks and had clearly rehearsed and trained for it. If you ask me, THAT is the lesson. You have to spend the money to maintain a trained, full-time, substantial infrastructure in the years BEFORE the outbreak that can be unleashed on day 1. I think they had a wake-up call with SARS-1 in HK and Taiwan.

[22sec]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: 22sec

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


As I said for NYC, "We thought we had 2 weeks only to find it had been here for a month already". It was everywhere before we knew what hit us. We didn't stand a chance. I think when we get a good count of things we will find out it was here in late 2019. Many fatalities were probably written off to the flu. Starting to see it from the nursing homes. Hundreds if not thousands were dead and they were not counted as Covid. Hope that is not true across the country. As a society we did not do well with the nursing homes.

If it did arrive and go unnoticed in December through February what does that imply about the measures implemented starting in March? If we make the presumption that it was here then we functioned just fine - the healthcare system barely noticed, and we didn’t force millions to suddenly become unemployed.

NY functioned just fine? You're responding to a frontline worker fro NYC in case you weren't aware. He can probably relay a lot more about how NY was not just fine.

Has New York functioned fine sine March? No. I was posing the general question about how things functioned prior to the March shutdowns, and if the virus was here prior to that, was the lockdown necessary?