The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

Yes, probably so.

I think I have strategic surprise (I won't know for certain until the main landings take place; but I think so). But I won't have full operational surprise, of course. John'll be watching me all the way to the beaches.

Over the past month it seems that John's been concentrating on the areas he felt were most likely targets:
1. the Marshalls islands, mostly with 6k limits, are way overstacked to the point of bursting. Bigger islands like Ponape and Kusaie are heavily garrisoned.
2. Truk of course, is heavily garrisoned.
3. I know that Lunga is heavily garrisoned, and I suspect that other islands in the Solomons and New Georgia are also.
4. He's especially been attending to the Marianas and Marcus, with heavy concentrations and, in the case of Marcus, overstacking.

But to some extent he's been looking elsewhere. In recent weeks, Iwo and Yap airfields both went to level one. And, as reported yesterdays, there were "heavy signals" at Wolei.

But unless he has a mobile reserve pre-loaded aboard ships position near the targets, I am as certain as I can be that many of them are undefended.

I just hope my fleet remains intact so that I can confirm all of this. Subs, darn them. Subs are my biggest worry.

[jwolf]

Subs, darn them. Subs are my biggest worry.

Point taken -- but shouldn't it work the other way, too? I mean, by this time, maybe your subs should be his greatest worry.

[Canoerebel]

In the past week, my subs sank three xAK and one TK and damaged one AO. They're working, and I'm satisfied with how I'm using them. And if this op succeeds, the sea lanes available to John's oil and resource TFs will become considerably more limited, with more obvious choke points, so I'll be able to assign patrols more effectively.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Commander Cody, Death Star was in the same hex (131,100).

Thanks, Loka, for the suggestions. I had already bumped up CAP to 50%. Next turn, I'll remove the 10% rest. Then I'll divide my fighters into two groups: some at a high percentage with range zero (CAP) only [this will include the Corsairs, as NYGiants suggested several days ago) the rest at 0% CAP with range 6 (these to escort bombers).

For what its worth, the settings during the Great Naval Battle were 50% CAP, no rest %, and range 6 for all fighter squadrons (except those few squadrons with lower ranges).

I would not set cap to zero. Depending on DL and radar CAP will extend out quite a few hexes and then can protect stragglers or damaged ships that detach and head for home. I always leave fighters on CAP at normal range. Assuming that you have VR squadrons along for spares and considering your abundance of carrier fighters you should look for the opportunity to shoot down any Japanese aircraft that flies near you. Your radar would have probably scrambled more fighters if they were needed. They were not. Don't fret it. %40 Cap is fine but as you close boost it to 50% or %60. But if your ships are all upgraded with the latest air search radar you should be fine.

I can't believe how pitiful your anti sub results have been You should be sinking 3-4 of his subs when you run into a flock of them like that. Considering the ASW assets you now possess with the new MK 9 DC and your DC laden DEs. DW is right about it in his earlier post. He may be a Matrix Trooper but you should listen to what he says. One 18 plane avenger squadron set to 4 hexes and 80% ASW (make sure the pilots have decent skills) will totally reverse your losses. You will get multiple air attacks on his subs with lots of hits reported (most are not) and it will raise the DL of the Japanese subs to the point where many will not attack, and your ASW ships will react to them like dogs to a cheeseburger and smack the snot out of them. You can afford at this point to spare an attack squadron. After all, a couple of torpedo hits on a CV will reduce you by 90 aircraft. Usually, I prefer using a squadron on a CVE for the ASW job Do this and you can thank us later.... "There is no off position on the genius switch." That is why we are here..[8D]

Also, many Japanese bomber commanders have very high aggression ratings. This will at times cause them to act (wait for it) in an aggressive manner. Not necessarily in their best interest.

[BillBrown]

Keep in mind that in the DBB and derivative scenarios, the MK-9 ASW device does not have any more accuracy that the MK-6.

[BBfanboy]

Good to hear that your opponent is overstacking, using precious supply that Japan would otherwise have for the Home Islands. [:)]

[JohnDillworth]

One 18 plane avenger squadron set to 4 hexes and 80% ASW (make sure the pilots have decent skills) will totally reverse your losses. You will get multiple air attacks on his subs with lots of hits reported (most are not) and it will raise the DL of the Japanese subs to the point where many will not attack, and your ASW ships will react to them like dogs to a cheeseburger and smack the snot out of them

^^^^^What he said^^^^^^ and maybe what I said. You are not SEEING his subs so you can't attack them, only react to them after the fact. Look at real life. That's what the CVE's were for. to escort things and have the Avengers look for subs. You brought along plenty of "killer" but you are not using your "hunter". Total up all your ship losses in the the last 3 operations. What got them? Operation Drumbeat was in early 1942, not late 1943.

[Canoerebel]

I've got some CVE TBFs flying ASW now. I switched them out before I sent John the turn this a.m. But I forgot to check pilot ASW skill levels. I'll do that next turn and see if I can draw enough highly-skilled pilots to allow three or four of the CVE TBF squadrons to do the job.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

Keep in mind that in the DBB and derivative scenarios, the MK-9 ASW device does not have any more accuracy that the MK-6.

Thanks, I was not aware of this. I always thought it was godly....

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've got some CVE TBFs flying ASW now. I switched them out before I sent John the turn this a.m. But I forgot to check pilot ASW skill levels. I'll do that next turn and see if I can draw enough highly-skilled pilots to allow three or four of the CVE TBF squadrons to do the job.

Most at start carrier avenger pilots and those arriving on fleet carriers come with fairly good ASW skills as well as all other skills. Really, anything in the 45-60 range is good enough. Nobody really knows the best altitude but I just keep them at 5,000k and they work just fine.

[DRF99]

It certainly is a black art.

In JocMeister's AAR there was a big discussion on combating the IJN's nuclear sub force.

In particular, MrKane wrote:
Personally I am using directed forward night search to anti-subs protection. Sub hunting is different story. Actually the best results I am getting with dive bombers used at mass. Standard is 50% ASW 50% SEARCH for each squadron on each carrier. In case of USN carriers it gives 41 planes looking for subs around for each flattop. Result is usually clean ocean in 1 or 2 turn with 2 - 5 sunk all other heading port to fix damage.

[JohnDillworth]

I go a bit lower but that will work too. You can experiment with this on the West cost. use your ASW place 40% search, 40% ASW, not full range, tight search arc and associated ASW ships. the planes get the detection and the ships "sighed sub sank same"

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Most at start carrier avenger pilots and those arriving on fleet carriers come with fairly good ASW skills as well as all other skills. Really, anything in the 45-60 range is good enough. Nobody really knows the best altitude but I just keep them at 5,000k and they work just fine.

[JohnDillworth]

good luck. short range and low alititude

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've got some CVE TBFs flying ASW now. I switched them out before I sent John the turn this a.m. But I forgot to check pilot ASW skill levels. I'll do that next turn and see if I can draw enough highly-skilled pilots to allow three or four of the CVE TBF squadrons to do the job.

I've got some CVE TBFs flying ASW now. I switched them out before I sent John the turn this a.m. But I forgot to check pilot ASW skill levels. I'll do that next turn and see if I can draw enough highly-skilled pilots to allow three or four of the CVE TBF squadrons to do the job.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Commander Cody, Death Star was in the same hex (131,100).

Thanks, Loka, for the suggestions. I had already bumped up CAP to 50%. Next turn, I'll remove the 10% rest. Then I'll divide my fighters into two groups: some at a high percentage with range zero (CAP) only [this will include the Corsairs, as NYGiants suggested several days ago) the rest at 0% CAP with range 6 (these to escort bombers).

For what its worth, the settings during the Great Naval Battle were 50% CAP, no rest %, and range 6 for all fighter squadrons (except those few squadrons with lower ranges).

I would not set cap to zero. Depending on DL and radar CAP will extend out quite a few hexes and then can protect stragglers or damaged ships that detach and head for home. I always leave fighters on CAP at normal range. Assuming that you have VR squadrons along for spares and considering your abundance of carrier fighters you should look for the opportunity to shoot down any Japanese aircraft that flies near you. Your radar would have probably scrambled more fighters if they were needed. They were not. Don't fret it. %40 Cap is fine but as you close boost it to 50% or %60. But if your ships are all upgraded with the latest air search radar you should be fine.

I can't believe how pitiful your anti sub results have been You should be sinking 3-4 of his subs when you run into a flock of them like that. Considering the ASW assets you now possess with the new MK 9 DC and your DC laden DEs. DW is right about it in his earlier post. He may be a Matrix Trooper but you should listen to what he says. One 18 plane avenger squadron set to 4 hexes and 80% ASW (make sure the pilots have decent skills) will totally reverse your losses. You will get multiple air attacks on his subs with lots of hits reported (most are not) and it will raise the DL of the Japanese subs to the point where many will not attack, and your ASW ships will react to them like dogs to a cheeseburger and smack the snot out of them. You can afford at this point to spare an attack squadron. After all, a couple of torpedo hits on a CV will reduce you by 90 aircraft. Usually, I prefer using a squadron on a CVE for the ASW job Do this and you can thank us later.... "There is no off position on the genius switch." That is why we are here..[8D]

Also, many Japanese bomber commanders have very high aggression ratings. This will at times cause them to act (wait for it) in an aggressive manner. Not necessarily in their best interest.

This is a fair point - and one that I just approach as the cost of doing business with an exceedingly effective CAP in a single hex. Since I often move my ships their full allotment on the turn of battle, escort TFs are typically still in that hex. The exception would be when a sub picks one off.

The aggression is also a fair point, but I suppose my air combat climate is a bit different than CR's. If you use CAP with a range setting, then it may cause Japanese units to attempt to strike at scattered TFs and get shot down by CAP. However, my experience with "ranged" CAP is also that the initial strike on hex(es) that are not the "home base" hex get let off easy as the CAP is late to arrive - or doesn't arrive at all.

For the ASW, it's not 1944 yet. 1943 Allied ASW is good, but not yet great.

[Canoerebel]

11/4/43

Big Tent: A busy day but a good day in that the herd had no hostile encounters. The lagging TFs are drawing close now. The armada will juke WSW four hexes tomorrow - a last chance for the laggards to draw close. Then the armada speeds up to five hexes per day until it hits the first beach, which is 22 hexes distant.

John is using aggression, partly to distract/unnerve and partly to find victims. He won't succeed in the first objective. He may in the second, but the jury's out on whether the expense will be worth it. Is he blunting and dispersing assets he could use better to hit the herd? Massed enemy air hit Tarawa to little effect. Another well-escorted strike hit Maloelap port, where badly damaged BB Washington has been hiding for months. He lost 30 Franks and Georges (I lost 10 or so Warhawks and Lightnings). He might come for Washington, but I doubt he has BBs stuck down here. He also has a raiding force south of the Aleutians. I admire his tactics here, but they shouldn't have any real effect.

Recon continues to show the immense buildup in the Marianas. A well-thought-out and effective strategy on John's part, but they aren't the target. I wouldn't come after a nest of atolls unless I had a decent naval base nearby to replenish BBs. But he wouldn't know that. Too, the fall Wake and other atolls, and Allied carrier superiority (if not now, previously) undoubtedly raised concern about security closer to the Home Islands. That's natural and what I was hoping for/counting on.

D-Day 1 should take place in five days. Eldorado will be implemented in about three days. All signs continue to lead me to believe that the soft underbelly is indeed that.

Lion Tamer: Tanna switches to the Allies. Another small landing takes place tomorrow at the dot hex to the north.

Third Ring: This is the follow up operation to follow Big Tent. Fuel and troops are prepositioned. If Big Tent goes well and doesn't incur heavy losses, the Allies can follow on it with another major operation.

The Enemy: John will attack the herd at some point, but I do think he'll take offensive action in the "vacuum" created by the Allies committing so much offensive power to Big Tent. I wouldn't be surprised if Wake falls. That I will lament, because I'll have to retake it later. But action in the Marshalls or Aleutians would be essentially irrelevant. Action against Midway would also be a real problem, but John might be reluctant to take on a base that the Allies have held and built up since 12/7/41.

[Flicker]

Hmm. Satawal is 22 hexes away AND it's an atoll.

For carrier CAP I usually use 30 Escort / 10 Training / 20 Rest in friendly water, then 50/10/20 when in unfriendly, then 80/20 in bandit country, then 100% in expected action / action. It seems to work OK but what do I know - I've never played a human.

[JeffroK]

After your landing, have an alternate line of retreat for your TF so that your TF arent picked off.

Though thats how JIII got beat up last time??

[Canoerebel]

There is an alternate route of retreat (actually two, but one is highly preferred). The preferred route has tankers waiting and lots of combat troops ready to board assault ships for Operation Third Ring.

There could be many reasons Third Ring can't go forward, the main one being if Big Tent gets beat up. But if Big Tent is successful at acceptable cost, assets are in position for the next op. The only thing lacking is PP to buy out a few important units, but PP are accumulating now (after spending a lot swapping out Big Tent ship captains). 1166 PP on hand. By the time Big Tent wraps up, there should be plenty.

[Canoerebel]

11/5/43

Big Tent: Yesterday all ASW assets replenished, so the main body of the herd only moved three hexes. This allowed all TFs to rendezvous (some are actually a hex ahead now). So the "sprint" to the beach commences tomorrow. The herd is 19 hexes away and should move at 5 or 6 hexes per day (I'll try for 6 tomorrow and see how it goes).

There were a few altercations with enemy subs today, with one TK lost to sub gunfire. Allied ASW sank one sub and badly damaged another. It may well be that the changes made after your tutoring yesterday made the difference.

Interesting intel on IJN combat ship deployment as three BBs are sighted between Nauru and Ocean islands, well to the east of the center of attention. Those sighted are Kirishima, Haruna and Mutsu (the latter was out of the war for more than a year after being hung up at Tavoy with heavy damage throughout the Sumatra campaign). Beautforts sortie against meager CAP but miss. One IJN DD is hit by a bomb-toting TBF at long range. The BBs show an easterly heading and might be tasked to bombard Tarawa (or hunt BB Washington at Maloelap). There's a chance John has amphibious plans in the Marshalls. But if these BBs continue east, that's good no matter what they're up to.

Japanese strike aircraft again sortie vs. Tarawa airfield (little damage) and Malaoelap (coming out short again in the fight against good Allied CAP).

John may have gracious plenty air and naval assets in the Marianas and vicinity to handle what's coming, so I don't know if he's taking the edge off the massed force he might otherwise employ. I hope so.

A scouting YMS has nearly completed a circuit of the Marianas undetected. John's nav search must be vectored to the SE, and KB must not be right here.

USN combat TFs are inbound to Maloelap from Pearl to help extract Washington. I'm debating whether to send the damaged BB east. She's done as much repairs as she can (her speed was 5 knots when she arrived, it's 8 now and all minor damaged is fixed). If she leaves now, she might be able to rendezvous with the USN TFs out of harm's way. But at only 8 knots, she'll go about 4 hexes a turn and will be too close to enemy air at Roi for a few turns. Flee the enemy BBs or wait for the USN? The latter, I think. Let John have a target so that he is looking to the east and blunting his airforce, tiring his pilots.

Lion Tamer: Landings at two dot hexes around Tanna underway, as I'm doing away with enemy dot hexes to avoid John using them for search aircraft. Eventually he'll deploy something down here that takes out an xAK/xAP or two.

[Encircled]

BBs down near Ocean and Nauru, after all the action recently?

That seems to be er "interesting play"