Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Canoerebel]

1/18/44 to 1/22/44
 
Sumatra:  The British Empire troops arrived at Kuala, 120 miles east of Sabang, and imediately launched a shock attack against more than 40,000 Japanese troops.  I was somewhat pessimistic since the Japs have had the entire game to build forts, and some weeks to prep troops, but with 2200 AV to 600, the Brits overcame the three forts and took the base on a 12:1 attack.  This gives the British a second base on Sumatra.  They will move out immediately for the next base to the east - Medan - which John is reinforcing heavily.  He's trying to wipe out the three Chinese units before help arrives, but I doubt he'll be able to do so (mainly because the Chinese are about 70% prepped for Medan while I doubt any of John's troops began prepping more than a few days ago).  However, it is clear now that John is heavily reinforcing his garrison on Sumatra - more than 120,000 Japanese troops are scattered across the NW coast.  I'll send my guys to beseige Medan, but if things look to tough I'll settle for a protracted seige there while the Brits make a second amphibious assault somewhere else.  That the Japs are devoting alot of ships and troops to this area is important, because it takes some of the pressure off other areas.

Vietnam:  The Chinese troops at Haiphong are resting.  John shifted two divisions there from Hanoi, leaving just a lone division to garrison that post, so a second Chinese army crossed the river to besiege Hanoi.  The crossing auto-shock attacks weren't too bloody, and now the Chinese will rest a few days before attempting an assault.  I think the Allies will shift some LBA from Burma up this way to lend a hand and see if the Chinese can crack the defenses at either one of these cities.

North Pacific:  There is a ton of Japanese shipping (merchant, mainly) around the northern end of Honshu and southern Hokkaido, but I'm not sure yet what John has in mind.  At the moment, the Allies are content to allow the Sikhalin Island garrison units to rest and gain strength (which they are doing nicely), and to work on airfields and port facilities.  I feel pretty confident that by the time winter effects end for the season, the Allies will have brought in massed reinforcements, supplies, and fuel that will eliminate any hope that the Japs might have of reclaiming this island.  Until then, those winter effects pretty much assure that any Japanese effort to land would be futile.  Further east, Adak Island is about to go to level six airfield and the Army division posted there is also gaining strength nicely.

CenPac:  The Allies are concentrating on moving reinforcements to forward bases while awaiting arrival of new carriers.

SoPac/SwPac:  The Allies will soon probe a few Jap bases to determine whether conditions are favorable for amphibious operations.  More about this later.

Australia:  Both sides are heading for Alice Springs, with a smaller Aussie army on the road toward Kalgoorlie and Perth.  In about a week, the Aussie's should reach Alice and the next phase of the battle for Australia will begin.  The Aussies reclaimed Whyalla on the 20th.

Summary:  As long as the Allies hold Sikhalin Island, I really like my position.  Everything else pales in comparison, although I'm not neglecting those other regions.  But it's Sikhalin Island that puts the Allies in a position to close the points gap in a big way and to dramatically effect the Japanese ability to wage war.  So for now, the American carriers remain posted at Shikuka to defend this Arctic outpost.

[ny59giants]

What about a move on Padang on the west coast of Sumatra??
If Kuala was that lightly defended, this might be too. [;)]

[Canoerebel]

Padang is a possibility.  I have several units prepping for that base and they are currently loaded on transports.  When they arrive closer to Sabang, I'll begin reconning Padang to see if it is lightly held.  I don't think it will be, though.  I suspect John has take measures there.  So it's more likely that the Allies will be focusing on the north coast of Sumatra and/or Malaya.

[Canoerebel]

1/23/44 and 1/24/44
 
Sumatra:  Advanced elements of the British Empire army have arrived a hex west of Medan and will attack tonight.  I think the "joint control" of this hex protects the three Chinese units at Medan.  IE, if the Japanese successfully attack, I think the Chinese can now withdraw to the west rather than facing the threat of elimination when they were isolated.  I'm still not positive whether John intends to evacuate northwestern Sumatra or fight to the death.  His total troop numbers are fluctuating wildly - one turn 120k, the next 105k, the next 115k.  The Brits now have a base force at Kuala, with two fighter squadrons and a PBM Mariner squadron posted there.  The recon aircraft from here and Sabang can cover the map as far east as western Java.

Vietnam:  Quiet as the Chinese rest.  In a few days, I'll try a probing attack at Hanoi, where the Chinese outnumber the Japs about 1600 AV to about 450 AV.

North Pacific:  The Japs have alot of ships and men in northern Japan and Hokkaido.  John has had a LONG time to figure out whether and how to conduct a counter-offensive, so I may have my hands full sooner or later.  Eventually, reinforcements will come this way, but for now my defenses are based upon Arctic winter conditions, carriers, LBA, and a fairly stout garrison.

South Pacific:  Elements of a U.S. tank regiment landed at Raratonga and found the base unoccupied.  It has a level four airfield.  During the height of Japanese expansion and conquest, John built up every base he took, which I thought was a mistake.  It used up alot of his supplies and and now it gives me weakly defended or vacant bases at low cost (plus I don't have to spend supplies to build them up). There are also alot of points to be had - little Raratonga was worth 55 points to the Japs and there are dozens of bases like this in SoPac, Australia, and other regions.  If I can build up Raratonga with a base force and some aircraft , it should isolate John's Society Islands bases (Papaete and Bora Bora).

Australia:  The Aussies are moving down the roads toward Alice Springs and Kalgoorlie, about a week away from reaching the former. 

[Canoerebel]

1/25/44
 
Sumatra:  Both sides attacked and the Allies came out ahead each time.  First, the growing Japanese army at Medan launched a shock attack in hopes of driving out the Chinese defenders.  Although the Japs outnumber the Chinese something like four to one, the adjusted AVs rendered the odds 0:1 (the Chinese are more than 70% prepped while the Japs are probably less than 10% on average).  Japanese losses: 3383/100/ 2; Allied losses:  226/5/0.  Sixty miles to the west, the advancing British Army attacked the Japanese stack recently driven out of Sabang and Kuala.  This attack came off at 14:1 and cost the Japs about twice as many casualties (640 to about 360).  To John's chagrine, his units retreated into the coastal jungle hex to the north rather than to Medan to the east.  From my point of view, that isn't unreasonable - the Chinese units landed at Medan and took up a defensive position blocking the road into Medan from the west.  So when the Japs from Kuala were defeated, they found the route to Medan blocked and had to scatter into the jungle.  Sounds like a plausible scenario to me, but I think it has John spitting nails.  From here, the Brits will advance into Medan and see if they can wrest control of the base from the enemy.
 
Vietnam: Japanese reinforcements from the south are about to reach Hanoi.  The Chinese are putting some pressure on the Japs here and at Haiphong, but I don't think either base will change hands short of an all-out commitment by the Allies (including a protracted bombing campaign).
 
North Pacific:  No changes here.  The Allies continue to entrech and rest troops while casting a wary eye on the massed Japanese shipping, ground units, and aircraft stationed on Hokkaido and points south.
 
Australia:  The forward Aussie unit is 480 miles SE of Alice Springs.
 
Jungle Love Reference:  The title to this post comes from the old Steve Miller Band ballad:  "Jungle love, it's drivin' me mad, it's makin' me crazy..." 
 

[ny59giants]

Jungle Love Reference: The title to this post comes from the old Steve Miller Band ballad: "Jungle love, it's drivin' me mad, it's makin' me crazy..."

I have his greatest hits CD.

Now along that theme, start sending your Recon planes to each of his bases on the west coast of Malaya. Make John think you are getting ready to land there soon. [:D]

[Canoerebel]

1/26/44 and 1/27/44
 
Sumatra:  I still can't tell whether John is reinforcing the northwest coast (Map Note:  I'm using "real" directions here, not game map directions) or pulling out.  Most of my army has arrived at Medan, but I'll wait one more day before attacking to give the stragglers time to join.  Recon reports that Padang and the base to the east (both on the SE coast of Sumatra) are lightly held.  This is a pleasant surprise.  Ships carrying troops prepped for Padang are at sea and the green light has been given to an amphibious assault.  Padang is just a few hexes south of Palembang and can be built up to level five airfield (currently a level one), so John can't afford to leave it lightly guarded.
 
Vietnam:  With Jap reinforcements in place, I expect nothing more than protracted seiges at Hanoi and Haiphong.  A big Allied B-25 squadron and two Brit fighter squadrons have moved to the base to the north (Lungchow?).  Allied 4EBs from Rangoon hit Saigon for the first time, knocking out 30 resources.
 
North Pacific:  John has posted his entire submarine fleet one hex SE of Shikuka, hoping to get a crack at my carriers.  Fortunately, I don't plan on sending my carriers to sea any time soon.  I am, however, sending two ASW TFs to that hex.  There continues to be a great deal of Japanese activity in northern Japan, but the Allies feel warm and cozy thanks to the Arctic winter conditions and its effect on amphibous operations.
 
South Pacific:  The Allies landed and took an unoccupied Ha'apai, just a hex or two from Tongatapu.  It has a level one airfield.  Next I'll take a crack at Wallis Island in hopes that it too might be unoccupied.
 
SWPAC:  Transports heading from NZ towards Koumac to scout that base were hit by Kates flying from Noumea.  I'm going to try to get one AK to Koumac to land a detachment of a Marine raider batallion to try to get a feel for how strongly this base is held.
 
Australia:  Advance elements of the Aussie army are now just 360 miles from Alice Springs; the vanguard of another Aussie army is still some 900 to 1000 miles from Kalgoorlie.

[Canoerebel]

Gentlemen (and ladies, if there be any),
 
Military censors have released the first combat photographs of the war.  They would have done so earlier, only the enemy had so pressed Allied forces that every inch of every ship was devoted to evacuating men and material, and then trying to reclaim some territory.  We will release about five photos in short order.
Commander, Allied Armies

[Canoerebel]

This photograph was taken near Medan, Sumatra, after Allied troops liberated a piece of "heavy enemy artillery" from one of the Japanese units that just fled into the jungle after suffering defeat near Kuala.

[Cap Mandrake]

Please say you were kidding about Steve Miller [:)] The truth has come out. his 4 year old daughter wrote his lyrics.

looking forward to the fotos

[Canoerebel]

This photograph shows Essex-based Navy Corsairs and TBMs hitting Hakodate on the island of Hokkaido during the December 1943 Allied invasion.

(Disclaimer - This National Archives photo does show Essex-based Corsairs and TBMs hitting Hakodate, but the raid took place in February 1945. I had NO idea the Allies actually hit Hokkaido in the "real" war!).

[Canoerebel]

Lonely elements of a U.S. armored detachment approach the island of Ha'apai (near Tongatapu) in January 1944 only to find the island unoccupied much to their relief.

(Disclaimer - this National Archives photo shows a Marine "water buffalo" approaching shore during the invasion of Tinian in July 1944)

[Canoerebel]

This photograph captures a laid-back Marine Raider batallion coming ashore at Koumac on New Caledonia in late January 1944.

(Disclaimer - this National Archives photo actually shows 165th RCT coming ashore at Makin Atoll in November 1943).

[Canoerebel]

1/28/44 and 1/24/44
 
Sumatra:  It's clear now that the Japanese are vacating the northwest coast of Sumatra.  This area is "land-locked" (IE, there isn't any road to eastern Sumatra), so John has to pull a Dunkirk.  It appears that he's trying to shuttle his troops across the Straits of Malacca to Kuala Lumpur and perhaps Malacca.  The Allies have taken three of the four bases (Sabang, Kuala, and Medan) in this region and are on the road to Bankha.  I have base forces set at Sabang and Kuala with one on the way to Medan.  Once I have the fourth set to go, I'll work on building these up (Kuala, Medan and Bankha can each be built to level four) and that will make it tough on John anywhere on the southern Malay peninsula, including Singapore.  Meanwhile, the Royal Navy carriers are escorting an amphibious TF towards Padang on Sumatra's south coast.  I don't think John's recon has picked up this force (and I hope so, because that would seriously reduce the chances that he might commit the KB to get a crack at the British CVs).  This force is perhaps four days away from Padang, which seems to be held by just 6,000 troops spread over two units.
 
Vietnam:  The Allies have transferred additional British fighters (several Thunderbolt squadrons and one Spitfire squadron) to China to lend a hand.  A massed strike from Rangoon agains the airfield at Hanoi destroyed more than 75 aircraft on the ground and John has at least temporarily pulled his aircraft out.
 
North Pacific:  Oops, the Allies lost the western-most Kurile base (Kunashiri) to a Japanese shock attack.  John had just reinforced his troops here, but I still thought they would be so badly disrupted that my guys would hold out.  I sent a CL/DD TF to try to interdict John's transports, but only managed to tangle with a TF of small craft, sinking four PC and an MSW.  The Allies continue to work frantically on the airfield (and to a lesser extent other facilities) at Toyohara and Shikuka on the assumption that they will be needed in a big way sooner or later.
 
SoPac:  The intrepid detachment of an armored unit landed at Wallis Island and took that unoccupied base.  That gives the Allies three bases (the other two being Ha'apai and Raratonga).
 
SWPac:  The detachment of Marine raiders landed at Koumac and found it fairly lightly held, but there is enough Japanese air on New Caledonia to discourage me from invading without air cover, at least for awhile (Jap bombers sank an AK or two and an MSW over the past few days).  John's garrison isn't all that strong, but I don't have carriers available down this way right now.  So in the short term I may sniff around and see if there are any ungarrisoned bases available.  I might be able to establish a base that will sort of neuter the Jap defenses on New Caledonia.
 
Australia:  Lead elements 240 miles from Alice Springs and about 600 miles from Kalgoorlie.
 
Points:  The point spread recently dropped below 15,000.  Still a LONG way to go, but there are ALOT of points to be picked up for bases, and in a few months the Allies should be in a position to unleash heavy bombers in a non-stop strategic bombing campaign.  I think the Allies can pull even and earn a draw.  Whether I can accomplish more than that I have no idea.  But give the hole I was in a draw would be awfully sweet.

[DW]

Assuming you can keep the game going, I think you can do better than a draw. You've still more than two years of game time left.

I know you're not ready for your strategic bombing campaign, but have you given any thought to what form it will take when the time comes?

[Canoerebel]

The Allies have tried a few probing strategic attacks already (mainly the airplane factories at Gumma) mainly to rattle John a bit - get him thinking about the danger and force him to employ CAP all over the Home Islands.
 
When the campaign begins in earnest - probably in April or May - I hope the real damage will come from B-29s flying from Shikuka and Toyohara.  Secondary attacks may come from B-24s and/or B-17s from Iwo Jima.  The primary target will be the airplane factories and resources.  Secondary targets may include heavy industry and port strikes.
 
By then, RAF units in Sumatra, Burma, and China should be able to contribute by striking resource centers and possibly oil production.
 
The key to the Allied position is holding Sikhalin Island.  I had better NOT let John retake the bases there. 

[Canoerebel]

I just realized that most of the Kuriles do NOT lie within the zone covered by Arctic winter conditions.  So I spent a month of game time under the impression that my garrison at Kunashiri was pretty much assured of surviving any invasion since the Japs would be badly disrupted by those winter conditions.  Talk about alert!  That means the rest of the Kuriles (except Onnekotan or whatever the name is of the base south of Paramushiro) are similarly vulnerable.  I'll have to be a little more vigorous in their defense by employing carriers and combat ships.

[anarchyintheuk]

I kinda assumed the same thing. Still learning after all these years.

[Canoerebel]

1/25/44 to 2/3/44

A brief note as I'm short on time but wanted to mention a few important matters:

Sumatra:  The British army just finished taking the four bases on the NW coast (the last, Bankha, fell on the 3rd).  The Japanese have been executing a Dunkirk.  The Allies are trying to get base forces and fighters distributed.  The British amphibious TFs are heading toward Padang (southern Sumatra) and recon just sighted what appears to be a carrier force far to the southwest (in fact, due south of Sabang near map's edge).  This force could be raiding toward Ceylon (that would suit me fine) or it could be the KB cutting off the path of retreat of my RN carriers (but if so, missed the prime chance to move in and strike a day or two ago before the Allies got more forward bases at Medan and Bankha which offer hopes of LRCAP).  So, the transports will head into Pabang tonight, covered by two squadrons (one Spitfire VIII and the other P-38Js) giving LRCAP.  The rest of the Allied land-based fighters will fly LRCAP for the carriers, which will move west, hugging the south Sumatra coast, hoping not to get ambushed.  Padang remains lightly held (about 7k troops) though John seems to be augmenting via air transport.  I have enough Navy Corsairs and land-based CAP to offer decent protection to my carriers, but I'm pretty nervous as I wait to see what tranpires.

Updates from elsewhere later.

[Canoerebel]

Continuing last post:
 
Sumatra:  On the 3rd, Japanese land-based bombers sortied from Palembang against the RN carriers, but none made it through the CAP (consisting of 90 Corsairs, 13 Hellcats, and some P-38s flying from Medan).  I have transferred several reconnaissance squadrons to Medan and they will begin flyovers of Singapore and Palembang.  Some British shipping that was heading to or from Sabang has been diverted to the NW until I figure out what the Jap's have and where they are going.
 
Jap Carriers:  I have been operating under the assumption that the Japanese could move the KB south to hit the British carriers.  While I do not want to lose these ships, I have continued my operations on the assumption that if the Japs do send enough carriers to overwhelm my ships, that in turn will leave unprotected the sea lanes between Hawaii and both Iwo and Sikhalin Island.  I believe that would be a signficant strategic benefit to the Allies no matter what happens down around Sumatra. So, the British carriers have been providing CAP to important operations that have made big gains at Sumatra, and if in so doing they turn out to be bait sufficient to draw the attention of the KB, it will have major benefits elsewhere.  And if the Japs have less than the full KB, the Royal Navy + LBA should be able to manage.
 
North Pacific:  A lone tanker is sprinting toward Shikuka from Midway and will near the Kuriles tomorrow.  Some P-38s from Shikuka will begin flying LRCAP tomorrow.  I want this oil, but another purpose is to draw John's attention to this area too.  I just know he won't like any kind of commerce between Sikhalin Island and Midway.  Shikuka is about 50% to a level 6 airfield and level 5 port.
 
South Pacific:  John used a FT convoy to recapture Wallis Island from the tiny garrison that took it a few days ago.  He may try the same at Ha'apai and Raratonga. I don't have strong garrisons at either place and the hope is to continue giving John places to worry about.
 
Australia:  The Aussies are just 120 miles from Alice Springs.  I think the Jap garrison will retreat, but if not I have enough to take the base by force.  Next stop will be Tennant Creek.