Shattered Vow

[veji1]

I don't think he was implying that it wasn't fair play, but that he thought it happened too early. I agree with you that it would have been feaseble in WW2 had it not been properly protected, and that the fact that you were able to do it in your game is a direct consequence of Miller's failure to put a few bought Kwantung Rgts on this strategic islands + invading just the first islands of the aleutians.

Nevertheless he probably just meant that seing this + your successful invasion of the DEI+ Q-balls+AdmSpruance+other AARS seems to indicate that although the japanese can attack fantastically efficiently to begin the game, defending is made a lot harder in AE than in WITP, which in the long run is worse for the jap player...

Many dot bases, less air groups to cover weakesses, less troops, all in all it seems that defense lines are thinner, with less reserves and therefore any side on the offensive finds it easier.

Basically just wandted to say that there is no need to take offense, I don't think there was any malice in his comment.

[aztez]

Oh, nothing wrong by going into offensive in the Kuriles.
 
Absolutely nothing and you should ignore those kind of comments. They belong to waste basket.
 
The game models winter in the northern pacific, etc etc. There are way more important things "wrong" in the game. (Not saying this isn't a great game)
 
As for the offensive itself I think it is far from over yet. If he gains air supremacy than things might become quite "hot" in the north.
 
Good move seizing Kuriles. I wohn't go into details where I might/will hit for obvious reasons. I will let my beloved opponent find this out from the actual game! [:D]
 
Pretty much what stldiver said. The game moves on and will need tweak or two before "finished" product.
 
This is one of the early PBEM's so I pretty much know what you have went though to get this far. As said good job and leave those comments where they belong to.
 
 
 
 
 
 

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: stldiver

That fact that route was not defended adaquetly, is not your fault, think of the consequances if it was! You would be seriously hurt, and unable to advance till much later in 43. As it stands now your position is still tenous, and by no means a slam dunk. Kudo's on the ability to take the plunge.

AE is still in the early stages where people are testing the boundaries of what can and cannot go well. There are campaigns that are going well for Japan early in these wars, and there are campaigns where the allies have seemed to turn the tables early in the war. Just like Witp its to early to call play balance issues, give it another 6 months to year.

I'll make a comment using the quote above as a springboard. It will be hooted down. There is less than a 5% chance of it happening (maybe .01%.) But I present it just for thought and perhaps discusison, because it is an option for Miller.

Activate the USSR now.

In early 1943 the USSR has recieved few reinforcements, and the air force is lame. Miller has internal rail lines to pull out of China--especially arty death stars--and redeploy to the border quickly. He knows you're getting carriers in the next six months. He needs bases in range of your current possessions in the Kuriles, and to stop you getting more down the chain, to hit from the flank from bases you can't easily put OOC or out-of-supply. He has to know that he's lost unless he can stop the coming strat bombing. Taking out the USSR in April 1943 is probably impossible, but it's 100% impossible a year from now. If he dumps China and the VPs there, does he have enough to at least secure the Asian coast to east of Vlad. (Olga, a 5(7) air base) and the two huge air bases on northern Sahhalin Island?

Start hooting now. (But John III would go for it.[:)])

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: stldiver

That fact that route was not defended adaquetly, is not your fault, think of the consequances if it was! You would be seriously hurt, and unable to advance till much later in 43. As it stands now your position is still tenous, and by no means a slam dunk. Kudo's on the ability to take the plunge.

AE is still in the early stages where people are testing the boundaries of what can and cannot go well. There are campaigns that are going well for Japan early in these wars, and there are campaigns where the allies have seemed to turn the tables early in the war. Just like Witp its to early to call play balance issues, give it another 6 months to year.

I'll make a comment using the quote above as a springboard. It will be hooted down. There is less than a 5% chance of it happening (maybe .01%.) But I present it just for thought and perhaps discusison, because it is an option for Miller.

Activate the USSR now.

In early 1943 the USSR has recieved few reinforcements, and the air force is lame. Miller has internal rail lines to pull out of China--especially arty death stars--and redeploy to the border quickly. He knows you're getting carriers in the next six months. He needs bases in range of your current possessions in the Kuriles, and to stop you getting more down the chain, to hit from the flank from bases you can't easily put OOC or out-of-supply. He has to know that he's lost unless he can stop the coming strat bombing. Taking out the USSR in April 1943 is probably impossible, but it's 100% impossible a year from now. If he dumps China and the VPs there, does he have enough to at least secure the Asian coast to east of Vlad. (Olga, a 5(7) air base) and the two huge air bases on northern Sahhalin Island?

Start hooting now. (But John III would go for it.[:)])

Bullwinkle 58: A provocative post-in a good way.

Miller would be nuts to allow that and certainly nuts to instigate that. If the USSR is activated, the allied player immediately has large numbers of high quality bases within easy bomber range of ALL JAPANESE HOME ISLANDS. As an Allied player, I would not permit myself to be hamstrung with nonsense about not using B-24s from Vladivostok just because Stalin and Roosevelt weren't bosom buddies. Again, because B-17s and -24s weren't based there IRL before the end-game Soviet activation doesn't mean that Canoerebel should be bound by history if the Soviets enter the war a year and a half earlier than IRL.
Miller also stands to lose a large number of resource centers, supply points and replacements when the Bear surges into Manchuko, regardless of whether or not the IJA defense holds in China proper. I could argue that Miller has more to lose from the threat of closing Port Arthur alone than he would from Paramushiro under allied control.

As Canoerebel said, it will be a LONG time before he can consider strategic bombing from Paramushiro. Paramushiro without strategic LR bombing is (with all due respect to Canoerebel) strategically inert. Miller is responding to the POSSIBLE long-range future strategic bombing from Paramushiro this vehemently. How do you think he'd feel with a whole mess of those airfields in range of the home islands on the North?

[Canoerebel]

Miller attacked Russia in our WitP game and it turned out badly for him.  No way he'll do it in this game.
 
Update:  Onnekotan Jima just fell to the Japanese.  I'm very puzzled and, to be honest, pretty ticked off.  The Japanese seemed to get ashore quickly and in great shape despite two Marine CD units and two big arty units.  And my garrison held for a grand total of two attacks.  Meanwhile, Japanese subs sail around sinking everything in sight while American subs serve as target practice.
 
If Onnekotan fell that easily I think Paramushiro is very vulnerable.  I'm not sure it's worth proceeding with the game if all that effort (and all those losses) end up being pretty much for naught.
 
This is something I'm going to mull over as we move forward over the next few days.
 
I do think I'm making progress in the DEI and there are some promising possibilities there, but overall I'd say this game (the one between Miller and I, not AE in general) is a lopsided pile of manure.  Japanese subs, nuclear artillery, ineffective Allied fighters, and my bungling of the invasions of Luganville and (apparently) the Kuriles has left me temporarily demoralized.
 
Part of the problem has been my own mistakes, part is due to us playing Scenario Two, which I guess gives the Japanese a noticeable bump, but alot of it is the game itself.  Too, very little has gone right for the Allies since they won the big carrier battle in the DEI, but had to "re-do" it because Miller experienced big bug during the replay. 
 
Vent over. 

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: stldiver

That fact that route was not defended adaquetly, is not your fault, think of the consequances if it was! You would be seriously hurt, and unable to advance till much later in 43. As it stands now your position is still tenous, and by no means a slam dunk. Kudo's on the ability to take the plunge.

AE is still in the early stages where people are testing the boundaries of what can and cannot go well. There are campaigns that are going well for Japan early in these wars, and there are campaigns where the allies have seemed to turn the tables early in the war. Just like Witp its to early to call play balance issues, give it another 6 months to year.

I'll make a comment using the quote above as a springboard. It will be hooted down. There is less than a 5% chance of it happening (maybe .01%.) But I present it just for thought and perhaps discusison, because it is an option for Miller.

Activate the USSR now.

In early 1943 the USSR has recieved few reinforcements, and the air force is lame. Miller has internal rail lines to pull out of China--especially arty death stars--and redeploy to the border quickly. He knows you're getting carriers in the next six months. He needs bases in range of your current possessions in the Kuriles, and to stop you getting more down the chain, to hit from the flank from bases you can't easily put OOC or out-of-supply. He has to know that he's lost unless he can stop the coming strat bombing. Taking out the USSR in April 1943 is probably impossible, but it's 100% impossible a year from now. If he dumps China and the VPs there, does he have enough to at least secure the Asian coast to east of Vlad. (Olga, a 5(7) air base) and the two huge air bases on northern Sahhalin Island?

Start hooting now. (But John III would go for it.[:)])

Bullwinkle 58: A provocative post-in a good way.

Miller would be nuts to allow that and certainly nuts to instigate that. If the USSR is activated, the allied player immediately has large numbers of high quality bases within easy bomber range of ALL JAPANESE HOME ISLANDS. As an Allied player, I would not permit myself to be hamstrung with nonsense about not using B-24s from Vladivostok just because Stalin and Roosevelt weren't bosom buddies. Again, because B-17s and -24s weren't based there IRL before the end-game Soviet activation doesn't mean that Canoerebel should be bound by history if the Soviets enter the war a year and a half earlier than IRL.
Miller also stands to lose a large number of resource centers, supply points and replacements when the Bear surges into Manchuko, regardless of whether or not the IJA defense holds in China proper. I could argue that Miller has more to lose from the threat of closing Port Arthur alone than he would from Paramushiro under allied control.

As Canoerebel said, it will be a LONG time before he can consider strategic bombing from Paramushiro. Paramushiro without strategic LR bombing is (with all due respect to Canoerebel) strategically inert. Miller is responding to the POSSIBLE long-range future strategic bombing from Paramushiro this vehemently. How do you think he'd feel with a whole mess of those airfields in range of the home islands on the North?

It would be well night impossible on the ground, but I'm not sure the Allies, in April 1943, can mount the LBA campaign you think. First, the units themselves are small and many are still restricted. Second, they're all over the world right now. It would take time to marshall them back east, either by slow boat or by island-hopping (Canoerebel doesn't have any Mid-Pac bases such as Kwaj.) then north, with lots of op loses and maintenance. By the time they got ready to land in the USSR a lot of those air fields might not be in Allied hands. Third, the HI still have very good air defenses in early 1943, and industry does not lack for capacity. Fourth, have you looked at the Soviet OOB in April 1943? It's not the powerhouse it is by August 1945. It's also spread out, and fairly under-supplied/under-forted.

Taking the USSR wold need a successful blitzkrieg with very specific objectives, and careful weighing of risks. Also a total commitment and abandonment of China proper. It would almost certainly fail. But it would 1) test the limits of the engine in a game neither player may be that happy to continue right now, and 2) be fun.

[krupp_88mm]

hmm looks like the jig is up, i was seriously wondering if the allied could really loose 400+ transports and tankers so fast and still prosecute a war effort, i mean didnt they produce one liberty ship  a day, and how many transports do you really need to get supplies to the front line??, surely the entire merchant production capacity of the US cant be allocated to the  pacific some has to be used for the Atlantic, how on earth are you going to supply enough troops and planes without so many transports considering you have to deal with kamikazees and the like? ( remember the US commanders screaming they needed tankers!!, how can they fight a war loosing so many more than in RL? is all the supply requirements modeled correctly?, something tells me its not, particularly i think using blanket term "supply" isnt accurate, as supply can be used for anything when in real life bread cant provide ammo for artillery, as i believe it seems to do in game)

also the historical reality of it all, the US was freaking out over just the possibility of loosing a couple dozen transports in the solomons, (so much so, they almost lost the battle to save them) i think if the US really took these loses so early in the war, the reality is an armistice would be negotiated.. most likely, just think of what this would have done to the US pyschy especially considering they now have 3+ years of bitter death ahead of them at this rate anyways, there were alot of anti's during ww2 as well, the fact just inst publicized as much as it is today

im sorry if im super noob and super rude, but at this point in the war i just have to hand the technical victory to the japs, speaking of witch how do those VPs look?

heres what i would love to see in a game update as unlikely as it may be.. more detailed supplies.. IE ammo / food / equipment / and also some sort of national modifier for morale.. even if its very subtle.. such as bombing Tokyo might give the US national morale modifier +"1" for such and such amount of time, and also a modifier for will.. as such if will drops to low also with national morale, a random chance for either peace treaty with Australia, other countries and USA.. im sure if in RL that fighting tooth and nail in the pacific would have meant the possibility of defeat in Europe they would have agreed to cease fire with japan.. most likely.. but japan would really have to put a serious hurt on allies.. really serious hurt, as seems to be the case

by my rough calculations you've alredy lost about 80-90% many merchants and tankers against the japanese, as was lost in all ww2

Alaska 48 ships
Indian-Red Sea (Indian Ocean - Red Sea) 49 ships
Okinawa 30 ships
Pacific includes Hong Kong and Shanghai 130 ships
Philippines 128 ships
Westcoast (Pacific coast of U.S.) 27 ships
Region unknown (92 ships (~1/2 pacific?) = (46?)

409 total lost transports and tankers


i mean im thinking you've got over 100,000 casualties already just from navy, this early in the war.. i think the effect on the moral is quiet devastating, commanders will be fired, and tactics will be changed offensive operations would likely be forbidden .. in the very best case scenario.. the US would limit all commanders to defense only operations for a year

[Altaris]

Canoe, there's some postings on issues with CD guns not firing on the amphib transports. It seems against large amphib TF's, the CD guns mostly just splurged their ammo against escorts, then the amphib ships simply skirt by and land safely and quietly. Only seems to be an issue against large amphib's with loads of escorts. I think this is not WAD, and might be why you are seeing such skewed results.
 
Any way going, no way should a massive amphib operation be possible with un-prepped troops, even against relatively unfortified defenses. Imagine what would happen if D-Day had been planned in 3 weeks...

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Altaris

Canoe, there's some postings on issues with CD guns not firing on the amphib transports. It seems against large amphib TF's, the CD guns mostly just splurged their ammo against escorts, then the amphib ships simply skirt by and land safely and quietly. Only seems to be an issue against large amphib's with loads of escorts. I think this is not WAD, and might be why you are seeing such skewed results.

Any way going, no way should a massive amphib operation be possible with un-prepped troops, even against relatively unfortified defenses. Imagine what would happen if D-Day had been planned in 3 weeks...

Do we know they were un-prepped? Miller knew about the Kurile threat from the posts he read during "the pause" in the game. They might not have been 100%, but they probably weren't near zero either.

[Canoerebel]

1. I agree that there's no way the USA would have tolerated massive loss of ships. But this is a game. Even more problematic, we're on two-day turns, meaning that once you've stepped into a booby-trap you can't extract yourself for awhile. A zillion ships got hit by Paramushiro's CD guns and then by a series of bombardment and combat TFs and then by the KB. It wasn't pretty and I don't score any points for the lack of ability I showed in handling things.

2. Miller didn't have any troops prepped for Onnekotan (or Paramushiro). He says he got a bunch of garrison troops when I stepped foot on "Japan" (IE, the Kuriles). Miller says he lost 30-40 ships to the invasion, but I doubt it's that high. It appeared to me he had vast numbers of TFs with lots of embedded E and PB escorts. My CD guns only attacked one transport per TF. Whatever it was he managed to have a much less bloody invasion than did I and reclaimed the island too easy.

3. Here's an email I sent to Miller yesterday: "How badly were your ships hit during the invasion? I'm scratching my head that two Marine CDs did very little and Allied subs are just targets while Japanese subs sink everything in sight. A Japanese fortress sinks everything in sight but two Marine CDs seemed to do very little. I am so frustrated with the game that I don't know what to do."

4. Here's his reply, which he requested that I post here:

"To be honest I am looking at around 30 ships, 20 transports plus 10 escorts going down to your CD guns, so they were effective. Perhaps my bombardments kept their heads down somewhat. Your subs are still cursed with duds until Sept 43, then I am in trouble......

"Re the game as it stands (In my opinion)

"Burma - I "got out of jail" to a degree in Akyab. My supplies had run out long before your troops cut off the supply line. I had plenty of supply in Rangoon but for some reason the draw supply button to Akyab was not working. All I could do was launch a mass air-evac effort. Luckily for me you did not bomb the airfield until I got the bulk of the Infantry out. Most of the support troops and Artillery will die there but I got fragments out so hopefully they will rebuild.

"China - If it were not for "uber" Art I would own a few less bases then I do now. However, what have I gained in real terms? A few extra VPs in exchange for a lot of units tied down when they are needed elsewhere. Changteh would fall sooner or later, but then what? The survivors would regroup at Chihkiang and another tedious long seige would begin. Changsha is a no-no, as is Chungking. I could capture a few more of your northern bases, but whats the point? I am busy withdrawing units to areas where they are really needed, like the DEI...........

"Kuriles - Once you landed I got eight or so "free" garrison units in Japan, I put these to good use retaking Oki-Jima. I will re-take Para-Jima regardless of cost, I cannot afford to have B24s pounding my resource centres in 43! I figure I have 3 months to do it, before your replacement CVs arrive on the scene.......it will an interesting battle.

"New Guinea/Cenpac - I doubt you will make any moves in the near future, I see you turned back a Baker Island invasion for some reason.........

"DEI- My weak area. If Timor falls my southernmost resource bases will be in danger........rest assured you will have a harder time taking it than in our last game!

"Overall - I have to admit I have had most of the luck up to now, and I will need plenty more.......It has been both an exciting and tedious game at times.......lots of bugs to be sorted out but the game is still worth a hundred times what we paid for it. Please post the above in your AAR so your readers can get my opinion on the game so far."

[LoBaron]

Very interesting. To me it seems like you are both operating close to the limit of your forces.
Many of the weird situations you are experiencing now probably had their root cause in the earlier versions,
the patches just can´t wipe out the effect of more than two years in game time.
 
Still with retaking Burma as early as ´43 and DEI with much less to worry because Miller cannot risk failure
when he tries to retake the Kuriles you will be able to open one frontline after another.
I understand your frustration because if Miller is able to launch a counteroffensive all the work seemes to be
only temporary relief.
 
But don´t forget that he is going to have some serious problems soon:
He has to collect major combatants from all over the pacific to stage the counterattack, burning loads of
fuel he can´t replace with Burma Oil soon, he can´t set a high percentage of pilots to train for the ´44 battles
when he will take more and more serious beating, he lost a high percentage of his IJN air arm (ouch 200 betties and the likes),
he will worry about a secind invasion of the kuriles so he has to get them back in shape,...
 
To me this looks like the perfect time to plan on hurting him everywhere else as much as possible. The time is gone where
he holds the initiative. You know where hes going to attack and this presents many options.
 
Btw. can you fly in reeinforcements to Paramushiro by air? Not sure about the ranges there. This could tip the balance
if its a close call. Also losing 20-30 transports is a pain when he needs those to keep the empire running also...
 

[Canoerebel]

LoBaron, those are excellent observations.

I was just in the process of typing a request for advice from readers, but deleted it as I think I know what I'm going to do.

I'm going to try to advance as far as possible and as fast as possible in the DEI.  LBA can provide some cover, so I won't be risking total devastation even if Miller is able to orchestrate some LBA ambushes and has the Mini-KB in the area.  Miller is focusing on Timor, but I'm going to head north, instead, probing toward the wesern tip of New Guinea, eastern tip of Flores, and into the Celebes.

I think I will keep the Allied carriers (Wasp, Lexington, Victorious, eight CVEs, and two arrive at Tacoma soon) in NoPac, and make a show of force on the periphery to try to hold Miller's full attention here.  Meanwhile, I'll try to use sub transports to evacuate a cadre of the units on Paramushiro so that they can be rebuilt.

After the Allies take Akyab, I'll send a stack of troops in Burma, but that will be more feint than anything.  I've already moved all Brit units to Australia (to feed into the DEI) and I may follow with some Indian units.

As previously noted, I have taken devastating losses in the game.  The current score is 29,700 (Japanese) to 17,100 (Allies).  That's actually not that bad a spread at this point in the game, I think.

[Chickenboy]

Canoerebel,

[inserts tongue firmly into cheek] Have you considered an alternative hypothesis for the nature of your plight in this game? You may wish to consider the possibility that you just plain suck at this game. Therein lies the root of your problems, no meta-analysis required! [silly mode off]

Alright, sorry, I'm trying for some comic relief. Forgive my cheekiness, I certainly don't believe that you are a poor player-I hope you haven't convinced yourself of this...

I think your DEI-focused proposal is sound. Keep Paramushiro around as as abscess for him as long as you can and make him pay dearly for it if / when he wants to come get it.

There's several good bases in the region of the Vogelkop / N. New guinea and Moluccas that you are considering as a focus for your next thrust. Personally, I've always liked Morotai as a major base (just like IRL). You can threaten Mindanao and you are in LBA bombing range with your heavies of Balikpapan, Samarang and Tarakan. All are, interestingly, 18 hexes (extended for B-17E, between 'normal' and extended for B-24). Southern Borneo's oil (not insubstantial) will be very much threatened.

Obviously, with Baldeboap only 12 hexes away from Morotai, this major base of his will be threatened and made untenable once the heavies start their port attacks. Normal range for your p-38s with drop tanks is 13 hexes, so you can get escort that far, at least. Davao is only 10 hexes from Morotai too. Again, I really like the central location of Morotai (and Ternate is nothing to sneeze at either).

The following bases in this region can be built to these Max AF/ Max Port sizes:

Morotai: 6/5
Sorong: 8/5
Ternate: 6/5
Ambon: 6/4
Boela: 8/4
Namlea: 6/4

There's others as well that can be built to ~6 AF in this region. I was surprised particularly by Boela-it's also got some oil production and resources-it would be nice to start the resource denial as soon as possible whilest stealing a nice airfield.

I like that he's interested in defending Timor. Good. Let him reinforce it. Turn right at or around Ambon and head up the Vogelkop and deep into the moluccas. Unless he's going to use Timor as a springboard for a counteroffensive (unlikely), you can continue your move up into the DEI and maximize your strengths in doing so. I see your strengths as: supply, construction, support and LBA (heavy bombers and plethora of fighter types). Building your own impregnable mutually reinforcing (KEY!) multiple bases in and around the moluccas does maximize your advantage in each of these areas.

Stick an AS into Sorong and use this as a forward base for your subs. One AS here could permit your submarines extensive and deep access into the DEI oil and resource transportation areas. This close to the front your submarines can stay on station longer and shoot even more of their worthless torpedoes ([8|]) ad infinitum!

Alright, 'nuff said already. Keep up the good fight, Dan. Don't get discouraged. Give 'em hell and make 'em pay! [&o]

[Canoerebel]

And on further thought, I believe I'll just keep my carriers out of sight right now.  That way Miller has to assume they could show up in either theater.  So my carriers will sit quietly and await reinforcements.

...and this reminds me of one of the micromanagement headaches of AE.

I had eight CVEs involved in the invasion of the Kuriles.  Following the landings, I sent these CVEs to the Aleutians, then on to Prince Rupert where they awaited the arrival of the fleet CVs steaming up from SWPac.  I had forgotten that at some earlier point in the game I had set these ships to upgrade.  When my fleet CVs arrived and I was ready to move all my carriers to Kodiak, I discovered that five of my CVEs are upgrading and won't be available for 15 days. 

This kind of thing can really bite you in the butt and there's plenty of it in AE.

Another example - early in the war I had a transport convoy carrying supplies to Tahiti.  They were to refuel there for the trip home to Los Angeles, but in the meantime another TF sucked Tahiti dry.  The transports sailed low on fuel, reached mid-ocean, ran out of fuel, and would have sunk had I not caught on through ops reports. 

[Canoerebel]

Chickenboy, good advice and thanks for the friendly (and humorous) nudge.

Boela, Babo and Sarong are on my short list (these will be targets as soon I take Babar [lightly held] and unoccupied Kai-something and Ari [islands near Saumlaki]).  If and when I take and bulid up Boela, Babo, and Sarong, I'll look to Namlea, Ternate, and Morotai.  I doubt I'll try for Ambon as it is heavily garrisoned - his main base in that region at the moment.

Troops are pouring into Darwin both via sea (from Townsville, Auckland, Noumea, etc.) and by land (rail from Perth, Sydney, and Brisbane). Many of these have long been prepping for points in the mid-DEI.

[Q-Ball]

This is very interesting and catching up on this.

KURILES: I think a landing is completely kosher there. The encouraging thing, though, is that Miller is showing why the Allies still have to think twice about a landing there.

First, I didn't know you get the Home Islands bonus units if the Kuriles are attacked. I think this makes sense, as a landing there would certainly set off the alarm bells at Imperial HQ. This changes the equation for Allies.

Second, in game terms, Miller showed why it's risky early-on. It's so close to Japan, there are going to be plenty of transports and troops to mount a quick counterattack. In addition, the entire IJN can be there in about 2 weeks, if not sooner.

Nevertheless, a good Japanese player will give the Kuriles alot of attention. I think Para Jima should be the largest base, because the CD guns there make any landing expensive. Mines and trenches are needed at Okenn Jima or whatever that is. Kushiro should be built into a large airbase, as Home-bound Betty/Zero units can operate from there, and assist in the Lower Kuriles. Either way, I kind of glad Miller showed a good reaction (sorry, Dan).

CRSUTTON: In answer on the tanks, the Australian units seemed to round out quickly with Matildas; the Indian Units, on the other hand, are STILL looking for Grant/Lee tanks in late 1942. I have a couple up to strenght, but some are still waiting. I would turn the replacements on for the Indian Tank units one at a time only, and wait for them to fill-up. Note, I never bothered turning replacements on for the restricted Australian Tank units.

BURMA: Dan, not sure if you have a HR in place, but I think using Indian Army restricted units in Burma is no longer kosher.

[Canoerebel]

I'm going to have to think about the Indian unit thing since our game has gone so deep:

1)  I don't think it's ever wrong to use the restricted troops against Akyab, since that city is only connected by road to India - it's almost more an Indian city than a Burmese city.

2)  I've got to be able to keep up the appearance of pressure in Burma by advancing my units.  However, I have no intention of making Burma a primary theater (if I did I wouldn't have moved all the Brit units to Oz).  So I think I'll advance a bit, beat the drums, rattle the cages, bang sticks together, and make lots of noise without actually making a move on Rangoon.  I'll have to think a bit about Myitkina, Schwebo, and Mandaly.

3) I agree that we should pay PP before using the units further into Burma than Akyab.

[Bullwinkle58]

It looks like this thread has already moved past the Kuriles and onto other things, but . . .

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

2. Miller didn't have any troops prepped for Onnekotan (or Paramushiro). He says he got a bunch of garrison troops when I stepped foot on "Japan" (IE, the Kuriles). Miller says he lost 30-40 ships to the invasion, but I doubt it's that high. It appeared to me he had vast numbers of TFs with lots of embedded E and PB escorts. My CD guns only attacked one transport per TF. Whatever it was he managed to have a much less bloody invasion than did I and reclaimed the island too easy.

Curious about this, I started a new game just to check the Japanese side of CD-land. (This is by-the-boards in your game, as the Para. Japanese CD is now sleeping with the cold-water fishes.) Para. has a decent, not great, CD installation at the beginning of the game. But better than any of the mobile Marine Defense Bns by a long shot. Curious, I then looked at the TOEs of these Marine Defense Bns and discovered (I'd never looked) that they vary a huge amount from each other. Some have tanks, some have 6 155s, some have a dozen Long Tom 155s, etc. There are many variants. (I'm in October 1943, so perhaps some of these havi't appeared yet in your game, or perhpas they have TOE changes in 1943 I didn't notice. But there are a lot of types.)

Reading AARs, and by now haivng fought scores of battles in my game, from half-million-man Asian mainland battles to 1200 man mini-island invasions, I think that, very much more so than in WITP, the device mix matters in the new algorithm. Andy was fanatical about the OOB, device by device, and similar sized units can really perform differnetly. In you AAR you use AV vs. AV ratios a lot to figure odds, but I'm not sure that has the same utility as it had in WITP. I also (without any rigorous statistical analysis) think that disruption plays less of a role than in WITP, supplies about the same, and LCU leadership and HQ proximity a lot more. The latter is a factor I have trouble managing. The HQ always seems to arrive in time to help with the rebuilding of the units, but I never seem to have time to get them there in advance.

Anyway, on the CD issue, I think he should have done more damagge to you than you to him on that single factor. But I'm interested to know which type of Marine CD units you had there?

3. Here's an email I sent to Miller yesterday: "How badly were your ships hit during the invasion? I'm scratching my head that two Marine CDs did very little and Allied subs are just targets while Japanese subs sink everything in sight. A Japanese fortress sinks everything in sight but two Marine CDs seemed to do very little. I am so frustrated with the game that I don't know what to do."

4. Here's his reply, which he requested that I post here:

"To be honest I am looking at around 30 ships, 20 transports plus 10 escorts going down to your CD guns, so they were effective. Perhaps my bombardments kept their heads down somewhat. Your subs are still cursed with duds until Sept 43, then I am in trouble......

"Re the game as it stands (In my opinion)

"Burma - I "got out of jail" to a degree in Akyab. My supplies had run out long before your troops cut off the supply line. I had plenty of supply in Rangoon but for some reason the draw supply button to Akyab was not working. All I could do was launch a mass air-evac effort. Luckily for me you did not bomb the airfield until I got the bulk of the Infantry out. Most of the support troops and Artillery will die there but I got fragments out so hopefully they will rebuild.

"China - If it were not for "uber" Art I would own a few less bases then I do now. However, what have I gained in real terms? A few extra VPs in exchange for a lot of units tied down when they are needed elsewhere. Changteh would fall sooner or later, but then what? The survivors would regroup at Chihkiang and another tedious long seige would begin. Changsha is a no-no, as is Chungking. I could capture a few more of your northern bases, but whats the point? I am busy withdrawing units to areas where they are really needed, like the DEI...........

"Kuriles - Once you landed I got eight or so "free" garrison units in Japan, I put these to good use retaking Oki-Jima. I will re-take Para-Jima regardless of cost, I cannot afford to have B24s pounding my resource centres in 43! I figure I have 3 months to do it, before your replacement CVs arrive on the scene.......it will an interesting battle.

"New Guinea/Cenpac - I doubt you will make any moves in the near future, I see you turned back a Baker Island invasion for some reason.........

"DEI- My weak area. If Timor falls my southernmost resource bases will be in danger........rest assured you will have a harder time taking it than in our last game!

"Overall - I have to admit I have had most of the luck up to now, and I will need plenty more.......It has been both an exciting and tedious game at times.......lots of bugs to be sorted out but the game is still worth a hundred times what we paid for it. Please post the above in your AAR so your readers can get my opinion on the game so far."

Wow. He sure does give up the OPSEC, doesn't he?[:)] If he's truthful this e-mail is the crown jewels of intel. Just . . . wow.

[LoBaron]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

LoBaron, those are excellent observations.

I was just in the process of typing a request for advice from readers, but deleted it as I think I know what I'm going to do.

I'm going to try to advance as far as possible and as fast as possible in the DEI.  LBA can provide some cover, so I won't be risking total devastation even if Miller is able to orchestrate some LBA ambushes and has the Mini-KB in the area.  Miller is focusing on Timor, but I'm going to head north, instead, probing toward the wesern tip of New Guinea, eastern tip of Flores, and into the Celebes.

I think I will keep the Allied carriers (Wasp, Lexington, Victorious, eight CVEs, and two arrive at Tacoma soon) in NoPac, and make a show of force on the periphery to try to hold Miller's full attention here.  Meanwhile, I'll try to use sub transports to evacuate a cadre of the units on Paramushiro so that they can be rebuilt.

After the Allies take Akyab, I'll send a stack of troops in Burma, but that will be more feint than anything.  I've already moved all Brit units to Australia (to feed into the DEI) and I may follow with some Indian units.

As previously noted, I have taken devastating losses in the game.  The current score is 29,700 (Japanese) to 17,100 (Allies).  That's actually not that bad a spread at this point in the game, I think.

Canorebel thanks for the compliment but in fact I was only summing up things you already said yourself.

Your initial focus looks great.

Going for DEI with a grain of salt while keeping a percieved pressure everywhere else. I like that.
Just be very carful.
Miller mentioned he thinks an advance through DEI unlikely...that would make me suspicious as hell,
more so as it is a juicy target. He simply can´t lose it ´43 or game over. [;)]

If you see restistance is mounting or he got a nasty surprize waiting you could always switch to the next front.
The nice thing about a fake is if you got something to back it up its not a fake anymore. [:D]

[crsutton]

Couple of observations.

One, you must continue. Your game is not only a good AAR but also a test of the pbemail campaign. We are all discovering faults with the game. No surprise there but because you and a few other players are way ahead of the rest of us, you observations are allowing for fixes that will benefit all of us who are coming up behind you. Sounds silly, but you are doing us all a great service even if you get "pimped slapped" in the end.

1. I don't think China is as broken as we all supposed. It needed some fixes and an HR or two but in my game, my excellent opponent knifed right through China. He was eating up my inexperienced units and spitting them out. You think you have it bad. I had lost Chansha, Sian, Kwiellan all by March of 1942 and was back on my heels. However, now my surviving untis are seeing experience in the 45 to 50 range with a few closing in on 60. My troops are taking replacements and units that come back to Chunking are stronger and have decent morale. I am now defending a line that is no longer in open terrain but jungle rough and mountains given me a 2X and 3X bonus. The end result is that the Chinese attack has bogged down and I don't see him getting any futher anytime fast. He is complaining about the supply that China is eating up.

2. Your invasion of the Northern Isles was daring and risky. You have shown me that perhaps it was too early to try it. This actually makes some sense historically. I might do the same but not until mid to late 1943. Your losses have been high and somewhat unlucky but win or lose you are forcing him to react and will have an opportunity to attrit his ships and aircraft more-and I really think it will affect his overall fuel and supply situation. You got a tough fight but it is not the end of the war for you as I think at this stage he will just exhaust himself fighting you in both the DEI and up north. I don't think he can throw you out of both and personally, I think an early advance in the DEI will kill him just as quickly because of the oil situation. You have traded massive losses for early footholds an interesting gambit. The Japanese side needs time to rest and prepare for the upcoming onslaught in 1944. I don't think Miller is going to get the rest he needs.

3. I am not too happy with the uber Japanese subs but you have at least killed so many of them. I have not seen the problems so much in my game but perhaps Miller is a Japanese sub genius. Eventually, you are going to get 100 million DEs and DDs. That should help some.

Go too it cowboy...[:D]