Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Chickenboy]

What are your VP levels, CR? Sounds like it's gonna be close...

[Canoerebel]

Right now it's 28,600 to 8,300.

That's close enough to give Brad something to shoot for, but it's too early to know how things will shake out. We still have nearly six months left to play before the 4:1 threshhold kicks in on 1/1/43.

Some of the critical factors: Since Brad recently finished off Bataan, there are no more "easy to bag" Allied troop concentrations. He'll have to go for Bombay or Karachi to have a crack at a big group. But the Allied position in India is beginning to grow stronger with additional reinforcements on the way and the Allied air force better able to lend a hand.

A decisive carrier victory would certainly have a huge impact on points totals.

At the moment, air and sea losses tend to favor the Allies in auto-victory calculations. IE, the losses are much less than the 4:1 ratio that Brad would like to achieve. He probably can't count on gaining ground there, so if he really wants auto victory he's got to shoot for high-value bases and big troop concentrations.

But we have a long way to go....

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

I think the way the game has progressed has been gamey, using the knowledge of the lines which trigger reos to avoid them is, IMVHO, extremly gamey.

JeffK,

Both sides have access to the information about where the 'line of death' is for Indian reinforcements. Both sides have played to the details of this information-on the offense and the defense. Both sides are aware of what VP levels are available for bases held by either side. Both sides know what must be held or taken in order to develop a 4:1 ratio by a certain date. Both sides have been developing strategic plans in accordance with these numbers.

If Q-ball is able to take much of India plus supplement with 'nickel and dime' other bases from which CR has wilfully fled, I see no shame in Q-ball reaping the attendant VPs. It's CR's responsibility (if he wants to avoid auto-victory) to ensure that Q-ball doesn't get there.

I respectfully disagree with your assertions that there's anything gamey going on here. If there is, it's been gamey on both sides, mate. Kind of cancels each other out, IMO.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Paullus, you're exactly right.

As noted at the beginning of the game, the Allies want to engage in a big land/air battle in India or Oz.

Unless Brad halts the reinforcements now on the way to Karachi, I don't think he can close the deal in India.

As for Diego Garcia, the only reason the Allies need the island is to serve as a trip-wire for an invasion of Ceylon or India.  Since Brad invaded four months ago, I have no need for Diego now.  I would consider reinvading, but I don't want to draw his attention to the IO.  I want him focusing upon India, NoPac, Australia, and New Caledonia. 

Actually, later in the game, a built up Diego is a pretty good place to hide forces massing for invasions of Lower Burma or Java. Level 5 port I think.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: JeffK

I think the way the game has progressed has been gamey, using the knowledge of the lines which trigger reos to avoid them is, IMVHO, extremly gamey.

JeffK,

Both sides have access to the information about where the 'line of death' is for Indian reinforcements. Both sides have played to the details of this information-on the offense and the defense. Both sides are aware of what VP levels are available for bases held by either side. Both sides know what must be held or taken in order to develop a 4:1 ratio by a certain date. Both sides have been developing strategic plans in accordance with these numbers.

If Q-ball is able to take much of India plus supplement with 'nickel and dime' other bases from which CR has wilfully fled, I see no shame in Q-ball reaping the attendant VPs. It's CR's responsibility (if he wants to avoid auto-victory) to ensure that Q-ball doesn't get there.

I respectfully disagree with your assertions that there's anything gamey going on here. If there is, it's been gamey on both sides, mate. Kind of cancels each other out, IMO.

Or would you want both players to pretend that the don't know and act accordingly? Sorry but this genie is out of the bottle. Everybody playing the game should know the triggers in all locations by now. Factoring it into your play just can't be avoided. Gamey or not.

[Canoerebel]

Surely there's no thought that there's any gaminess going on - in the sense of something unfair or improper.

Both Brad and I are playing the game (so in that sense there's certainly some gaminess involved!) bound by a certain set of rules. Both of us are aware of those rules and endeavoring to win the game within those boundaries.

This game has morphed into quite a strategic battle which I am enjoying immensely even as I fret a bit over the prospect of an embarrassing and very public loss.

[JohnDillworth]

It might be a bit gamey but so is knowing the reinforcement arrival dates of each and every unit. I think that there is an option where you might randomize the reinforcement a bit but there is nothing that can be done about the trigger points. In this particular case I believe the worm-holes being so close to Karachi more than make up for knowing the line of death. In the best of all possible worlds there might be an increasing chance of reinforcements being triggered when an opponent approaches a point instead of there being an absolute tripwire. In any event, the players both knew these things going in.

and now back to your regularly scheduled AAR...................

[Canoerebel]

Okay, back to the regularly scheduled game.

I'm really struggling to "read the tea leaves" as to Brad's overall intentions. Sometimes I think he's coming full bore for India; sometimes I think he isn't. Whenever I lean one way, I get a piece of information that prompts me to vacillate and swing the other.

My latest musing has been over Brad's deployment of 14th Division to Rabaul (as noted in previous postings about SigInt). If he were coming full bore for India to shoot for auto victory, i would think he would want every possible division he could get. He might even conlcude that anything the Allies could possibly do in the Pacific was irrelevant.

So, his purchase of 14th Division from the Manchurian garrison makes me think India might not be a target.

But then I begin thinking about whether Brad might take a stab at Fiji (those two bases are worth more than 500 points) or even Auckland (worth more than 1,000 points). But both are pretty well defended now and would take a minimum of three divisions, I believe.

So then I get a headache and decide to stop thinking about things for awhile, because I really don't know what's going through Brad's mind.

[JeffroK]

Both sides have access to the information about where the 'line of death' is for Indian reinforcements. Both sides have played to the details of this information-on the offense and the defense. Both sides are aware of what VP levels are available for bases held by either side. Both sides know what must be held or taken in order to develop a 4:1 ratio by a certain date. Both sides have been developing strategic plans in accordance with these numbers.

Many gamey has the wrong connotation to what I mean, but its having knowledge of the system well beyond what happened IRL and using it.

But really, only QBall can do much positive about this knowledge, Allies get to take advantage if and when they hit the Home Islands.
CR can retreat from any base he wants, but QBall doesn't have to advance if he doesn't want to, or until he is ready.
Its like Hitler saying, Dont take St Vith, it will release 51, 53 Br Inf Divisions and Gds Armd Div (In German of course)
I think the major item to sway which way he goes will be the additional points for destroying LCU & Shipping.

Thats my thought. QBall is building up a force which he believes is irresistible, then in a 2 mth (or so) campaign blitz Bombay & Karachi. IFF this gives him enough points for AV. I believe he should have enough flight decks to create a blockading force as well as a strong KB plus Netty would cover the lanes as well. (He might also have secretly moved 5-6 Divs to Truk and about to assault NZ or the East Coast of OZ.

Or else what can he do, what are all the LCU doing sitting in India, this is the time where the japanese player wins or loses the game. Releasing Manchurian units for Rabaul also shows he isnt emptying India in bulk.
In CR's game against Miller the failure to get much past the DEI gave CR a way back, this time it looks like the Central Pacific will be the chosen route.

PS    I think the Central Pacific a better route for the japanese to "offer".  Defensivly you can set up a number of airbase concentrations (I think 7-8 in the Marianas)which the USN has to fight against without much LBA help (just as IRL)  Given the production advantages in AE & Scen 2 the japanese position should be much stronger, plus without a Midway & Solomons to attrit the IJN CV force they should be more capable of interfering with landing forces.  The DEI approach, while it offered more bases for Allied LBA, offered just as many bases for japanese air forces and more bases to be taken on the approach.

Going to leave you in peace and have a read of QBall's side of things.

[Cribtop]

One point I'd like to make, CR. I often make guesses as to Q's intentions. Just so you know, it is my standing policy to only read one side if both players have AARs in order to ensure I can't slip up and give anything away. In this game it's KILLING me not to peek at Q-Ball's AAR, but I'm sticking to my principle.

[Canoerebel]

7/11/43 to 7/13/43

India on the Ground: The Japanese spearhead is advancing from Poona towards Bombay. There is no hex I'd rather have Brad come after if he's going to come. The Allies have 2500 AV behind six forts. I want to see how many units are in the stack, which will tell me how much Brad has in reserve for invasions or end runs. Also received SigInt that 24th Division is prepping for Surat, the port to the north.

India in the Air: Japanese fighters have been winning every engagement, but not in big numbers. Oddly, Brad hasn't tried to hit Bombay's supply.

India at Sea: If Brad is going to try to reduce Bombay, he likely needs to do three things: (a) cut the road to the north [taking Surat will accomplish this]; (b) bomb Bombay; and (c) bombard Bombay from the sea.

India Reinforcements: A big reinforcement TF leaves the Abadan channel tonight and will arrive at Karachi day after tomorrow. I'm holding my breath for this one. Most of the Marine units have now safely transited the stretch of open ocean between Mombasa and Aden.

NoPac: A Japanese TF sighted well to the SE of Attu. This puzzles me. A base force (60 support) just arrived at Adak Island.

CenPac: The Baker Island invasion elements will all be at the staging point - Christmas Island - within three days. I will debark the troops, allow them to recover from disruption, and then reload. D-Day could be 15 days away.

SoPac: A Sea Bee unit recently arrived at Suva, which will allow me to speed up base building.

Brad's Got to Choose: For Brad to have any chance of success in India he'll have to keep his carriers there and impose a blockade on Karachi. Without carriers in the Pacific, I can't see him trying a major invasion close to big Allied airbases (like Fiji or Auckland).

Pay Attention Now, CR: As I typed this, I realized that Surat is almost certainly a near-term IJ target. I have a bunch of units there, including a CD, but I need to send more. There is a small chance that Brad is trying to draw my units forward so that he can hit a weakened Karachi, but I won't fall for that. Karachi currently has 700+ AV with more about to arrive.

[vettim89]

I am not familiar enough with the production advantages the Japanese get in Scenario 2 but am beginning to wonder about what Brad's fuel situation is at this point. He has a lot of shipping a long way from home right now. That has got to be burning his reserves up. Also if the Japanese have increased airframe production in scenario 2, they don't come free. More airframes means more HI which of course means more fuel.

The reason I bring this up is to possibly reinforce the concept that Brad is playing for Autovictory. All this consumption may lead to a point where it won't matter where KB is because he won't have the fuel to move his carriers. I do not know enough about the Japanese Economy to comment with any level of authority. For those that do know: is it possible that Q-Ball is going to burn the Japanese Economy out? I don't know, but if that is true you must make the 1 January 1943 date D-Day as far as where you will be in this game. Just out of curiosity, what were the states of Palembang and the other DEI bases after Brad conquered them as far as oil/refinery capacity?

One comment: I philisophically have a problem with any player putting too much force along a map edge. It is taking advantage of way too much knowledge as to where convoys will appear. A few subs is not a problem in my mind but parking KB off Karachi seems gamey to me.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: vettim89

One comment: I philisophically have a problem with any player putting too much force along a map edge. It is taking advantage of way too much knowledge as to where convoys will appear. A few subs is not a problem in my mind but parking KB off Karachi seems gamey to me.

So is a wormhole the Japanese can't enter.

[Canoerebel]

That's the third time I've seen "wormhole" used in recent days and the first time it's been characterized as gamey.  I take it that this term and the "Karachi/Aden" channel have been much discussed in Brad's AAR.  I do not understand the position that the use of this supply channel is improper or gamey.  I don't have any choice in getting ships to and from Aden and it certainly gives Brad some advantages too.  He knows right where my ships will be and he can position there subs (which he's done often), combat ships (which he hasn't done yet), and the KB (he's done that twice).
 
Cribtop, I know that nobody is giving away info from Brad's AAR, least of all you (since you are a Texan and therefore an honorable man as are all Texans).
 
I should point out that at this point somebody could post Brad's plan in detail and I would be likely to dismiss it as a deception.  And someone could post the exact opposite of Brad's plan and I'd buy it lock, stock, and barrel.  At this point I am so confused, and under so many conflicting pieces of info, that I have no idea what he might be doing.

[Cribtop]

I'm confused too, CR! He seemed all in for India and now he seems to have paused there. A move on Surat re-opens India, however. Who knows?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's the third time I've seen "wormhole" used in recent days and the first time it's been characterized as gamey.  I take it that this term and the "Karachi/Aden" channel have been much discussed in Brad's AAR.  I do not understand the position that the use of this supply channel is improper or gamey.  I don't have any choice in getting ships to and from Aden and it certainly gives Brad some advantages too.  He knows right where my ships will be and he can position there subs (which he's done often), combat ships (which he hasn't done yet), and the KB (he's done that twice).

I was responding to this: "One comment: I philisophically have a problem with any player putting too much force along a map edge. It is taking advantage of way too much knowledge as to where convoys will appear. A few subs is not a problem in my mind but parking KB off Karachi seems gamey to me."

Of course using the off-map system isn't gamey. It's game. But the effect of the Aden to Karachi mechanic designed in is that the Japanese player has no chance to intercept except for the very last bit of the transit. Thus, if he wants to intercept, he has to hang around the edge of the map, with the KB or otherwise. Objecting to placing forces on the edge of the map is nonsensical IMO.

I wonder how AARs would go if the Japanese player could attack CT, Aden, or Abadan? It was certainly possible in RL.

[JohnDillworth]

I was responding to this: "One comment: I philisophically have a problem with any player putting too much force along a map edge. It is taking advantage of way too much knowledge as to where convoys will appear. A few subs is not a problem in my mind but parking KB off Karachi seems gamey to me."

Of course using the off-map system isn't gamey. It's game. But the effect of the Aden to Karachi mechanic designed in is that the Japanese player has no chance to intercept except for the very last bit of the transit. Thus, if he wants to intercept, he has to hang around the edge of the map, with the KB or otherwise. Objecting to placing forces on the edge of the map is nonsensical IMO.

I wonder how AARs would go if the Japanese player could attack CT, Aden, or Abadan? It was certainly possible in RL.

Guess the developers have to abstract somewhere. You can't have the whole globe in the game, nobody would play it....................well, not many people would.........perhaps only a select number of really hard core.......[:D][:D][:D]

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's the third time I've seen "wormhole" used in recent days and the first time it's been characterized as gamey.  I take it that this term and the "Karachi/Aden" channel have been much discussed in Brad's AAR.  I do not understand the position that the use of this supply channel is improper or gamey.  I don't have any choice in getting ships to and from Aden and it certainly gives Brad some advantages too.  He knows right where my ships will be and he can position there subs (which he's done often), combat ships (which he hasn't done yet), and the KB (he's done that twice).

I was responding to this: "One comment: I philisophically have a problem with any player putting too much force along a map edge. It is taking advantage of way too much knowledge as to where convoys will appear. A few subs is not a problem in my mind but parking KB off Karachi seems gamey to me."

Of course using the off-map system isn't gamey. It's game. But the effect of the Aden to Karachi mechanic designed in is that the Japanese player has no chance to intercept except for the very last bit of the transit. Thus, if he wants to intercept, he has to hang around the edge of the map, with the KB or otherwise. Objecting to placing forces on the edge of the map is nonsensical IMO.

I wonder how AARs would go if the Japanese player could attack CT, Aden, or Abadan? It was certainly possible in RL.

I can see your point Mr. Moose. My point is that the Allies have no control over where those units appear once they are dispatched from an off map base. Couple that with the problems some players have had with trying to reverse course of TF's in the off-map movement displays and it can be a distortion of the map. I understand how it could be frustrating to JFB to not be able to get at those units off-map but the Allied player has no control over the hex the TF's enter the map. If KB is commerce raiding in the SoPac (which is happening in my PBEM right now), the Allied player can reroute convoys to at least attempt to flee from KB. KB or worse some SCTF parked off Karachi and the Allied player can do nothing. Several players have had TF's go into "off-map oblivion" when trying to reverse course in the off-map movement tracks.

In this game if Brad goes for Surat, he can place KB right between Surat and Mombasa and any Allied TF that tries to enter the map to intervene is toast. There are two sides to every coin.

BTW, the Japanese couldn't even mount an effective invasion of PM or Noumea in RL. An invasion of Aden or Abadan is pure folly.

[Bullwinkle58]

I have never tested it, but the manual describes the proceedure where a sea hex can be assigned as the destination for a TF in the transit box, and this need not be a base. IOW, you can dump a TF out of the off-map system into open sea as far west of Karachi as you like. It would extend the time at sea by at least a turn (the "automatic" wormhole is the shortest possible time at sea pre-Karachi), but it's possible to mess with the Japanese defender and draw his defensive zone out to a larger radius.

Your point about not turning back in-route is well-taken. However, the flip side of that is the Allied player's option to spin the TF around in one turn if he gets jumped and send it back, unpursuable. He can also place a damaged TF on Cruise speed to minimize flooding without having to weigh that versus running for his life on the open map.

As for the Mombasa to Surat route, CR of course has the option to use his navy to oppose the KB and get those ships to their destinations. Nobody ever said the defense of Asia was going to be cost free. Right?

And I didn't say an invsion of Aden, Abadan, or Cape Town. I meant a raid. Right now in my game I have 37 xAKs/xAKLs, 6 xAPs, and 6 TKs in Cape Town (mostly upgrading), snug as a bug in a rug. Imagine the complexity of my life if the KB could heave into view at any time . . .

[Itdepends]

Just select any ocean hex as the destination for your off map task force- you may even be able to set it as a way point to control your exit point. I normally just set an ocean hex and set "remain on station"- pick the ships up as they enter the map.
 
Daniel