See you in Tokyo Bay - Apbarog(A) vs Walker(J) DBB-B Scen28

[apbarog]

12 Nov 42

Northeast of Ontong Java, north of Tulai, US sub Trout finds a big task force with CV Hiryu, BBs Haruna and Kongo, 2 cruisers, a CS, and 6 DDs. The sub lines up Hiryu and gets a torpedo hit! But it's a dud.

This task force shows up in daylight 2 hexes due east of where Trout attacked. Hard to say where this carrier is heading. Either to the Tabiteuea area, or it is swinging around my search coverage at Tulagi. Or it's just patrolling.

US carriers are south of the Solomons refueling from AOs today. They will stay where they are as long as they aren't spotted.

B-17s from Charter Towers bomb Milne Bay. Some hits are achieved on the port, airfield, and the 86 Naval Guard unit that is there.

Recon shows more troops at Port Moresby now. I'm seeing 27800 men/179 guns/46 AFVs. This looks like 2 divisions there now instead of one. Bettys did move here today from Rabaul. My small surface group popping up near Milne Bay got the enemy's attention.

Recon of Buna shows 16800/106/37, about the same as before. Still seeing movement west to Kokoda. I'll be very happy if troops keep going to Port Moresby, as I still want to do my Buna landing.

I begin my sneaky plan of moving troops to Tagula Island, next to Rossel Island, east of Milne Bay. Cats are moving the engineer unit that does have combat value. I have transports dropping supply.

I can officially close the book on the first battle of Tabiteuea. All of my ships are out of the area now. My CVE task force, including 2 moderately damaged CVEs, are refueling from AOs now, and will head to Pearl Harbor on an indirect route.

[apbarog]

13 Nov 42

Today had a combat report that was completely empty. Very unusual, maybe a first for this game. Notable, though, is the Allies are reconquering Mindanao! Well, not really, but my small infantry unit and base unit fragment that had moved out of the mountains into unoccupied Butuan now both move further northeast into the jungle and conquer the next base. A little bit of supply may have been captured. Fuel remains at Butuan, and Butuan is now unoccupied but still Allied. It could flip back to the enemy at any time.

If I had a sub that could transport troops, I'd get that base unit fragment out, like I wanted to originally. But I didn't convert any of my US sub miners to troop transports, so it's not possible.

I'll just continue to be a nuisance with these units and force the enemy to spend some time cleaning them all out. It is November '42 after all!

The Hiryu task force that was spotted north of the Solomons and eastbound disappeared today. The only spot that I have high sub detection levels today was just north of Buin/Shortlands.


My carriers remain unseen. They will stay where they are until they are spotted, needed for an ambush, or to support the next operation.

And the next operation is a scaled-down version of the New Guinea landings. I will invade Milne Bay and Rossel Island, and possibly Goodenough Island. I will wait on Buna. This will let me keep my carriers south of Milne Bay and a bit further away from danger. Loading for these landings has now started.

[apbarog]

14 Nov 42

Ships continue to load for New Guinea. US carriers are still not seen. My troops on Tagula that were flown in on Cats are immediately spotted. Helens from Buna bomb them, doing minor disruption. Lilys are now in the Shortlands area are now doing ASW.

Besides the upcoming landings, I'm now loading a small Aussie AAA unit for Tagula Island.

[apbarog]

15 Nov 42

The discovery of Allied troops on Tegula Island has apparently stirred up the hornets nest. Today the part of the 1st Raiding Regiment dropped onto my island, and almost defeated the part of the 2/3rd Pioneer Battalion.

At Buna, a large surface group is spotted, probably lots of cruisers and destroyers.

I decided to commit the Allied carriers, and move them to a point 5 hexes southeast of Tegula Island. This won't stop a night bombardment, but if ships carrying men show up, we'll have some targets. My carriers had not been spotted for about a week, so I may get surprise here.

I continue to tranport more of the 2/3rd Pioneer unit to Tegula. I also start to transport in another small unit from the Solomons on Cats. 2 squadrons of C-47s continue to drop supply. Bombers from Rennel Island will bomb the enemy paratroopers. B-17s from Charter Towers will bomb Milne Bay. B-24's will bomb Torokina. And I start loading an Australian regiment at Sydney for Tegula. It isn't prepped, so it will land only if I still control the island.

My Milne Bay/Rossel Island invasion task forces start to leave port.

There are more enemy planes forward deployed now. Port Moresby shows 66 fighters/33 bombers/15 others, while Buna shows 76 fighters/28 bombers/14 other.

I now see 2 subs at Milne Bay. I'd really like to now what the deal is with the deployment of 2 subs at forward bases. The enemy does this all the time, and the subs stay there for extended periods of time. Maybe it is to help rescue downed pilots. That or just to defend possible invasion targets. Don't know, but I've seen this in many places.

Elsewhere, I just mined the eastern exit of Darwin with a dozen mines. An enemy DMS has already found them. My opponent is very meticulous with this kind of thing. I haven't been lucky at all with offensive mining.

So it looks like we're going to have action off the tip of New Guinea very soon.

[BBfanboy]

Those subs are likely mini-subs on harbour defence duty. Foolish to put a full sized SS in a port in range of LBA.

[apbarog]

That could be. I don't see the subs actually in the port, just in the hex. Always 2 of them. It's some kind of strategy, that I am sure of.

One oddity. Awhile ago I got SigInt of something way down at the bottom of the map, southwest of Tanzania. Today my search planes at the southern tip of New Zealand spotted "5 ships" at 95, 201, which is at the bottom of the map. I didn't get a task force icon to show here, so this is undoubtedly a sub looking for edge-running task forces (I have none). So my earlier paranoia was justified!

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: apbarog
Tanzania

Tasmania?

Anxiously awaiting news from the Tagula/Rossel area. [8D]

[apbarog]

Yes Tasmania. I was only off by a continent.
Anxiously awaiting the next turn...or two.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: apbarog

Yes Tasmania. I was only off by a continent.
Anxiously awaiting the next turn...or two.

[:D]

And some history - since Tanzania was Tanganyika and Zanzibar back then! (Oh-oh, I think I'm dating myself.)

[jwolf]

It's all part of apbarog's diabolical disinformation plot. The Jap subs will be cruising the East African coast, completely oblivious to major shipping throughout the Pacific. [8D]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

It's all part of apbarog's diabolical disinformation plot. The Jap subs will be cruising the East African coast, completely oblivious to major shipping throughout the Pacific. [8D]

Why didn't I think of that? Gotta work on my diabolicals ...

[apbarog]

16 Nov 42

I dropped a few mines between Rabaul and Torokino, on the islands there. They are found today by local minesweepers. No luck again.

Near Tavoy, Dutch sub KXVII finds a big xAK and xAKL task force, but is spotted before firing. The sub is lucky to escape here in the shallow water.

US sub Gurnard is patrolling near Sapporo, but is spotted also before firing, and also escapes undamaged.

12 B-17s bomb Milne Bay's airfield. Moderate damage done. No enemy aircraft there but it is a size 1 airfield.

At Torokino, 36 F4F-4s from Guadalcanal sweep. There don't appear to be any fighters at Torokino itself, but there's plenty at adjacent bases. 45 Zeros and 7 Oscars are on CAP. Losses are 16 Zeros and 3 Oscars for 12 F4F-4. Next B-24s arrive, and do very minor damage after tangling with about 20 fighters. 2 B-24s are ops losses.

At Tagula Island, some B-26s and B-25s bomb the enemy paratroopers. Then it appears that more enemy paratroopers arrive, with another shock attack, but it goes badly for the Japanese, with a 1 to 99 attack. Lack of supply hurt, as did leaders, disruption, and fatigue. I continued to bring in my unit, and started to add a new unit from the Solomons. Both are pioneer engineer units with combat value.

Today I attack at Tagula. I have supply for one attack. An APD will try to fast transport in some supply tonight.

My carriers were spotted 5 hexes southeast of Tagula, and no enemy ships arrived. In fact, today I don't see any ships closer than Rabaul. I do see high detection levels on my subs near Milne Bay, to the northeast. This could be unobserved ships inbound.

I decided to move my carriers southwest, back towards Australia. They will stop just a few hexes from my invasion task forces coming north. It would be nice to disappear for a day but this is not a sure thing, with the Emilys looking for us, as well as the many subs.

[apbarog]

17 Nov 42

Near Rockhampton, I-22 takes a depth charge from ASW forces. Damage, but not enough to sink it.

Then nearby I-30 finds the task force including BB New Mexico. It fires on DD Sims, and sinks it with one torpedo. The task force looks like a surface group from the combat report. It's actually the big invasion task force for Milne Bay.

North of Japan, SS Gurnard gets a hit on an xAK, but it's another dud. Gurnard is RTB with system damage.

APD Colhoun dropped off some supply at Tagula Island, and got a minor depth charge hit on I-25 on the way home.

Zeros from Buna swept Tagula. Since 4 Tinas were ops losses today, the enemy is surely dropping supply to the isolated paratroopers on Tagula. Or transferring to the area.

My troops on Tagula are bombed by Helens escorted by Nicks from Buna. Minor disruption is done.

Ledo is swept by 23 Tojos. It goes poorly for the Japanese again. Losses are 18 Tojos, while the Allied losses are 4 P66s, 3 P43As, and 2 P40s. Most of the planes lost are Chinese. Only 2 Allied pilots are KIA today on the entire map.

At Tagula, the Allies attack deliberately, getting 14-1 odds. 4 Japanese squads are destroyed with a couple of Allied squads disrupted. I rest today.

At Deboyne Island, which is between Tagula and Milne Bay, I started to fly in a combat unit yesterday. Today I switch to an air support unit. I want to place a few search planes there tomorrow, since the big battle is coming very soon.

I'm bombing Ontong Java, north of Tulagi, as a diversion today.

The invasion task forces move northeast today, splitting up slightly, as they move toward the targets of Milne Bay and Rossel Island.

US subs are highly detected in this area. Petes are spotted near Woodlard Island. Could be from ships, could be from Woodlark Island.

Very high detection levels are seen north of Ontong Java, well north of Guadalcanal. That's where I think KB is right now.

[jwolf]

Looks nice, a lot of fun for the spectators. [8D]

OT: Does anyone else try to move the mouse on the maps in these AARs, looking for mouseover text for bases and TFs? [:o]

[apbarog]

18 Nov 42

Some sub action with my task forces. No torpedo hits, but just minor damage done to the subs. They are everywhere! The enemy knows that I am coming and is throwing as many subs as possible at me. I used one squadron of SBDs for ASW duty and they lit up all the subs shown. I will keep them on ASW today.

The enemy ships northeast of Milne Bay are interesting. I see 4 CAs and 4 DDs, which matches what was used against me so successfully at Tabiteuea. They seem to be just hanging out there waiting for me to make my move. My carriers will move much closer to Milne Bay today, and will be only 5 hexes from the ship's current position. Could they be carriers? Could be, but I doubt it. Being on a dot base would make them fly only 1/2 of their CAP, I think.

Then there are the ships that I see at Rabaul. I'm guessing there's battleships and cruisers, which means maybe carriers too.

There's going to be a fight.

Today I'm bombing Buin with B-24s. Hopefully Buin will be swept first with fighters from Lunga and Tulagi.

And I'm doing a risky operation, sending all of my Australian B-17s to bomb Buna. I'm seeing about 100 fighters there, but I don't think they are all on CAP. Some will be escorting bombers, I think. I will sweep Buna with P-38s from Australia, flying at long range.

CVE Langley is moving up the coast of Australia to escort an invasion task force to Horn Island. The transports are starting to load for this now. With all of the fireworks about to occur to the east, I hope to slip up the coastline and take Horn Island.

I don't have as many fighters in Australia as I would like. The 2 bases in the far northeast of Australia, on the trail road, are now airfield size 2 and 3. I want to start sweeping Horn Island and bombing it after, but I can't strip my base defenses within range of Port Moresby. I'll have fighters up here in a few turns. I won't invade Horn Island until the air operations begin.

If the next turn isn't a disaster, the Milne Bay and Rossel Island invasions could occur the next day.

Of course, if the enemy holds back but looks menacing (like where is KB?) I may not move in to invade immediately, and let my opponent play his hand sending in surface groups or whatever.

We'll see.

[apbarog]

19 Nov 42

My Rossel Island invasion task force runs over I-25. The destroyers, including Aaron Ward, are very determined, and their attacks go on longer than usual. 2 good hits are achieved on I-25, and the sub is forced to surface. The destroyers are less skilled with the gun action, and the sub fights back, firing 4 or 5 torpedoes at destroyers (fortunately), then the sub sinks.

To say that there are lots of subs in this area is an understatement. I think that every hex is occupied.

Near Umboi Island, Seawolf sights battleships Kirishima and Hiei, a cruiser, and a few destroyers. This is probably part of a bigger task force, and could include carriers. During the night replay, I saw a line of enemy task forces near Umboi and to the east toward Rabaul. Inbound or outbound, I don't know, but inbound is my guess. The surface group that was northeast of Milne Bay yesterday is gone today.

Near Deboyne Island, I-4 gets a torpedo hit on slow-going battleship Mississippi. It doesn't show fires or damage, so I'm hoping that the damage is minor. I won't get my turn until tomorrow. All I got was the replay for tonight.

At Buin, near Shortlands, 18 F4F-4s sweep, finding 35 Oscars and 8 Zeros. The US planes take the worst of the fight. Then 18 F4F-3s sweep, finding 27 Oscars and 5 Zeros, and again, the US plane losses are higher. I figured this might happen, due to the size of my squadrons. But I wanted to soften up the defenses for my bombers, which would arrive unescorted. 26 B-24s arrive. None are reported lost. Airfield damage is low, with 20 runway hits, 1 airbase hit, and 4 supply hits.

I then sweep Buna on New Guinea with P-38Es flying from Australia at long range. Losses appeared to be about even. I estimate about 6 planes downed for each side. Then 66 B-17Es arrive, against about 37 enemy fighters. The combat was short before the bombing, so the warning was probably low. And the fighters didn't perform well. Some or all of the fighters may have been flying out of Port Moresby. In this large first wave, no bombers are reported lost. 19 airbase hits, 11 airbase supply hits, and 49 runway hits are achieved. Only one plane destroyed on the ground, but lots were damaged. There were followup fragment B-17 attacks after this. Results were minimal as were losses.

I make a nuisance bombing of Ontong Java, hitting the 7th Indpt SNLF Coy there, in the clear terrain. 127 casualties reported, with most being destroyed squads. I could bomb this unit out of existence if I wanted to.

Then a large air attack goes after my Milne Bay task forces, including my carriers. 28 Nells attack escorted by 10 A6M2 Zeros and 46 A6M3 Zeros. Planes came from both Port Moresby and Buna. It was nail biting, with the large number of fighter escorts. But my CAP performed well. I put up 27 Fulmars and 108 F4F-4s. All bombers were destroyed before they could attack shipping. I estimate that 15 enemy fighters were lost, and about 10 friendly fighters downed.

Since I won't get the turn until tomorrow, I can't say what I'll do next. I can expect enemy surface ships, probably the big boys, at Milne Bay during the night phase, as it has to be expected that I will land there. The way things have played out so far, I don't expect to see enemy ships in range of my carriers during daylight tomorrow. My opponent just hasn't taken those risks. But carriers could very well show up, and if they do, they will standoff to the north of Milne Bay to hit my invasions shipping, not my carriers. That's my prediction based on previous play by my opponent.

I could back everything off to the south for a turn and see what happens. I could back off my transports and jump forward with my carriers, hoping to find something north. Or I could stick to the plan and invade. Decisions...

[jwolf]

You've got some real nail biting action, good stuff. [:)] Your raid on Buna seems to have worked pretty well, but he presumably has plenty of air from other bases such as Lae and Port Moresby which can cause you some trouble with the landings -- to say nothing of possible surface or carrier threats as you noted. Also at Shortlands even though your B24s didn't land a really crushing blow, the damage to the facilities might be enough to keep damaged enemy fighters from being repaired -- well, that's the optimistic take on the combat results there. I really don't know if it would work like that. I'm anxious to see what happens next. Good luck!

[apbarog]

19 Nov 42

The die is cast. This will be one of those very important turns in a long war.

My invasions are on.

Rossel Island will be invaded. My task force movement, along with the fact that we are already engaged on Tagula Island, will hopefully make the enemy think I'm coming there, when I'm really landing on Rossel. There will be no fighter protection for this. I will have a small surface group there for protection. It's a risky move, but it's my more minor objective.

The big move is to Milne Bay. There can be little doubt that I'm coming there. I expect battleships to make a high speed run during the night, then run away. Battleship Mississippi just took a sub torpedo, and will retire south at high speed, hoping to avoid more of that. I'll have a surface group led by another slow battleship, as well as a big cruiser force. I am not bombarding with them. My recon has consistently showed a relatively small force at Milne Bay.

During the night part of the replay, I saw many task forces along the north coast of New Britain. No carriers were spotted, but I have to think that they were there. Battleships and cruisers were spotted by a sub.

I thought long and hard about what I thought the enemy would try. I feel that my opponet will be very careful, and will not risk KB with a bold move. I also feel that KB will be heavily LR CAPPED from land bases. My first thought was that KB would move south and set up adjacent to Buna, using Buna for LR CAP. But yesterday's B-17 strike did a good deal of damage at Buna, and now I'm seeing far fewer planes there.

My guess is that KB will setup to the north by Umboi Island. The hex that I think is likely is circled in orange on the map. This hex is 7 hexes from Milne Bay, which is a safe move for the enemy, and still within range to crush the transports. He has to think that I won't charge north with my carriers, but will stay south of Milne Bay.

I decided to move northwest to the shallows 2 hexes southeast of Port Moresby. This hex is 6 hexes from my guess of where KB will be. I want a carrier battle. The enemy will be ready, but will probably not expect this move. I can hit anything along the eastern New Guinea coast here.

It's just an educated guess. And a risk. But so is anything at this point. Just landing at Milne Bay is a big risk, with surprise lost many turns ago.

If KB stays east, it could be within range of Rossel Island and out of my carriers range. If KB stays north of Woodlark, it could get lucky and be 7 hexes from me.

B-17s will bomb Port Moresby's airfield today, with no sweep or escort. My P38 group lost 12 aircraft and is not combat ready. This unit (with PDU off in our game) upgrades to the P40K, so with no planes as reinforcements, I upgraded the unit. Hopefully it will be defending Milne Bay soon.

B-24s will hit Milne Bay's troops and Rossel Island's troops.

Cats are now at Deboyne Island helping with search.

The Horn Island invasion shipping is hugging the Australian coast as it goes north. Langley and a dozen fighters will CAP. Bombers will start to hit Horn Island tomorrow.

I'm invading Goodenough Island also. The odds of this actually happening are small. I'm using 3 APDs and a tiny unit. I believe that Goodenough is occupied. I half expect the APDs to run into enemy ships coming south to Milne Bay. If that happens, that is ok too. It will use up their ammo and may send them back home afterwards, depending on their task force settings.

Air losses yesterday from the attack on my carrier task force and my sweeping and bombing of Buna and Buin were:

29 Nells
24 A6M3 Zeros
15 A6M2 Zeros
5 Oscars

I lost:
14 F4F-4s
12 P38Es
8 F4F-3s
5 Fulmars
2 B17s

I lost 13 KIA. This was a good performance, I think. No Nells got to the ships, and Buna was moderately damaged, forcing most of the planes out today.

So, here we go. Anything can happen.

[jwolf]

Love the map, really great job showing where everything is (or where you think it is [;)] ) and your planned moves and landings. Won't the Rossel TF be at risk from air attack from the Solomons? Where is your Horn Island group now? I can't tell where they are on the map (or maybe they're too far south to show). I would be really nervous about all those Jap subs; hope your ASW is in top form.

[apbarog]

Thanks jwolf. Yes, the Rossel task forces will be at risk of air attack. I did bomb Buin, but damage was not great. For that matter, Shortlands and Torokino could have bombers. Rabaul too. So yes, it's a lot of risk, but I couldn't protect everything without putting my carriers in a position between Milne Bay and Rossel Island, and that would be just too predictable. And my carriers would have less CAP for themselves. I decided to take the most risk with my lesser objective.

The Japs subs are excellent. Some of my destroyers have pretty good ASW, but often the ASW kicks in after the damage is done to my ships. I don't expect as much enemy sub activity where my carriers are now headed, for one turn anyhow. My slow battleships are just so vulnerable though.

I fear Japanese battleships and cruisers more than anything else for my landings. They could run in, hit me, and run out at full speed and avoid any air activity. For this reason, it's possible that KB doesn't show up even if it is very close. Why risk it if my opponent thinks the land based planes can do the job. Just a thought though. I honestly think everything is coming. Will be very interesting tomorrow.