Banzais Don't Make Victories - Anachro (A) vs John 3rd (J) BTS 5.7

[Anachro]

I'll have to do a full accounting in terms of changes. As far as I'm aware, other than the plane replacements buyout mod, there are no changes to the Allied air force. Changes to the navy include a slightly strengthened Dutch navy, French ships and submarines (2 BCs, DDs, CAs, Surcouf SS with a float plane, etc), an additional British BC in Force Z, CV Wasp is a Yorktown-class CV, CV Ranger, ability to upgrade 4 CVL/CA hybrids to CVLs, maybe 1 more British CV. I'll look into it more later. Not insignificant, but probably not commensurate with Japanese improvements.

[AcePylut]

Check your tankers/oilers - I believe a number of AO's have a 6 month conversion to CVE's.

[Anachro]

@AcePylut I believe some AVs can be upgraded to CVEs.

August 6 1942

A series of air sweeps in India where I come off slightly better against John's Tojos. The real news here is that John seems to be prepping for a push or feint east but is keeping heavy reserves around Asanol where he seems to have 3 divisions there, 3-4 divisions in the hex east of Asanol, and 3-4 tank regiments just south of those divisions. Recon has picked all of this up. Meanwhile he is moving artillery and some units west.



The real news is in the South Pacific where John's carriers can clearly be seen heading for Truk. As such, I speed up operations and the amphibious task forces begin loading for assaults on Canton and Baker Islands. The goal is to get in, land, bombard, take, and move out. There's about 150-200 AV earmarked for each operations and I hope to take the islands quickly based on recon showing small garrisons. Surprise won't be strong here as John has heavy recon, but I should be able to get in before his carriers can make an entrance. Someone asked how I'm seeing these carriers; I believe it's because John's planes are passing over empty Allied dot hexes as he sails and getting 4/8 or 5/7 DL on them. I believe this is causing me to get DL on his carriers.

Given that John's carriers have been operating together mostly and that I haven't seen them for awhile. I'm going to assume most of them will be coming to the South Pacific.

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart
Also, do you have a spy with a radio aboard that KB fragment traipsing through the DEI? I've never seen anything like it.

They are lighting up every turn, eh. Like someone planted a GPS tracker... And with no any DL mentioned in the popup box. It is disturbing for any JFB to observe this
Edit: ah, yeah, DLs are not mentioned in those kinds of popups over enemy TFs

I'm sure John is checking DLs over KB, but asking him about those would be OpSec breaching I guess. Very interesting indeed, I wonder what gives.

[Canoerebel]

John has a long history of not checking detection levels for his carriers. He may be working on addressing that hole in his game, but I bet he isn't.

[jwolf]

Trying to rationalize this sort of detection on the KB -- not in terms of the code, but in the sense of modeling what really did or could happen.

Could we assume that coastwatchers see a lot of carrier planes coming from a particular direction? And if there are multiple such reports, from distinct locations, that a pretty good triangulation could be done to get an approximate fix on the KB?

[Canoerebel]

The Allies had an abundance of information from all kinds of sources but especially signals/radio intercepts. As a result, they usually new where enemy carriers were. When they didn't know, they usually knew where they weren't, which could be just as valuable. The game probably undermodels the amount of SigInt but sometimes compensates partially in other ways. Overall, I'd say the Allied player has far less information to work with than in the war.

[Anachro]

August 6-9 1942

Been a bit slow with the updates as I've been traveling the last few days (back in the west coast now for a few days).

SoPac and the Aleutians

I've done a re-evaluation of my ops and and given the location of part of the KB a few days ago and the fact that a good portion of my carriers are in port repairing, upgrading, and the rest are divided between Sydney and Pearl, I'm not confident in having a preponderance of available airpower to protect whatever comes my way. 2 British carriers are repairing at Sydney, 3 US carriers are there too but available, 2 US Carriers upgrading at Pearl. All I have for air power right now around Palmyra are 2 US carriers, 1 British carrier, and 2 CVLs.

My units had not even begun loading when we spotted carriers outside of Truk and it's actually not that far from Truk to my target islands - and my transports are not fast enough in my mind. Landings at Canton and Baker Islands were partly called off two turns ago and fully last turn, but I still move forward with my carriers to get the riffraff Japanese surface forces that have been roving around the area. This wasn't easy for my as I like to remove the recon eyes John has so near to my LoC, but I did some serious evaluation of priorities and to be honest Canton and Baker aren't necessary since I plan to have everything going by way of Tahiti -> New Zealand (hub for supply/fuel to Australia and Suva/Noumea). I finally have some subchasers around Tahiti that should help with subs there.

4 DDs took significant damage at Canton despite being max range for bombardment - John must have a LOT of mines there. 1 sank from a roving DD and 3 more are slowly moving away covered by decently strong surface forces.

The landings at Lunga, Ndeni, and various other islands are still planned. Ndeni will be first. My DDs should have intercepted transports at Lunga last turn, but the enemy successfully moved away without intercept. I got the "Allied ships are approaching" message. John has various DDs/CLs moving around Ndeni and I am sending my US carriers there to see if I can hit anything. Really miffed my destroyers didn't hit the transports and Lunga and I can only assume there are 2 divisions there now and do doubt forts. I have 2 Marine divisions prepping for it, but I'm considering taking all the islands around it first and isolating it to wear it down. This can be done quickly before Japanese carriers can move in if well-executed.

Amphibious forces move on the Aleutians to take some green dots near Adak, John seems to have anticipated my movement against Seguam Isand and took it the last few turns.

Liberators are now on Australia and I have airbases that are in range of Rabaul. Perhaps we will see what's there.

India

No movements here to report. John seems to be holding steady, but sigint shows construction engineers moving to Calcutta so maybe he's planning to build his defenses. There are 6 or so divisions around Asanol so I can't move southeast. My various allied divisions hiding north of Asanol will be moved west towards Jamshedpur, which John is no longer recon'ing, and will potentially move south to quickly take the hex base across the river from Calcutta before moving directly on the city. Meanwhile, airpower and bases are building and when I do this I will concentrate all my fighters/bombers in Asanol, Jamshedpur, and Ranchi to sweep Calcutta and bomb with my bombers and heavy bombers. I will of course also slow down his troops at Asanol and east of it from moving down.

[Anachro]

August 10 1942

My carriers hit some of the Japanese riffraff that I have been dealing with around Canton and Baker and manage to seemingly snag a DD and CL. Both are believed to be sunk based on damage sustained and sinking sounds that I heard during the turn (I forgot to check for a/c destroyed on the ground). CL Ayase seems to be an old Sendai-class CL, but I'll take it. Those ~20 VPs will make up for potential loss of 1-4 DDs at Canton Island from mines (where currently 3 are moving slowly back to safer ports). We also sink an xAK at Baker which seemed to have some troops as a gun was lost.

My bombers seemed to do well Ayase. If only they'd done so well against John's carriers.

My carriers will move south this coming turn and see if more riffraff runs around while being set to port/airfield/ground strike on Canton to see what's there and if John has anything in port.



Sigint

Radio transmissions detected at Cagayan (79,89).
Radio transmissions detected at Haiphong (68,57).
79th Garrison Battalion is located at 47,35.
48th/C Division is located at 40,37.
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at Saipan (108,93).
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at 116,85.
99th JAAF AF Bn is located at Mutankiang(111,42).
40th JAAF AF Bn is located at Naga(81,81).
Radio transmissions detected at Shimushiri-jima (132,51).
Radio transmissions detected at Lunga (114,138).
Nimur Naval Fortress is located at Kwajalein Island(132,115).
25406 men are based at Yenki (110,44).
42nd Air Defense AA Regiment is located at Masan(102,54).
36th Division is located at Tangshan(96,41).
5th NCPC Infantry Brigade is located at Peiping(95,39).
6th NCPC Infantry Brigade is located at Tsingtao(95,47).
Radio transmissions detected at Kendari (70,106).
Radio transmissions detected at Baker Island (149,136).
Radio transmissions detected at Kobe (108,59).
6th Mongol Cavalry Division is located at Kalgan(95,37).
Radio transmissions detected at Paramushiro-jima (137,47).
Radio transmissions detected at Cam Ranh Bay (64,72).
12th Air Defense AA Battalion is located at Kobe(108,59).
2nd Border Defense Fortress is located at 111,43.
Radio transmissions detected at Manila (79,77).

[Anachro]

August 11 1942

My carriers move south and find nothing so they do their secondary mission and see what's at Canton. Middling results (but hey at least my dive bombing pilots got some exp) but I wasn't expecting much, but observation gives us a clear insight of what's at Canton and John seems to have a lot more troops than I expected there at ~7k. Anyways, my ships will be retiring this turn with the carriers heading towards Christmas Island before moving up as that seems to be an area where John's recon is lacking.

My damaged destroyers slowly make their way down to bases in the south and unless John brings some surface units in a few days should be fine.



Around Noumea/Luganville, John has had a number of ships, including transports, destroyers, and perhaps some light cruisers sitting at Ndeni for awhile and my carriers that were at Sydney are moving that direction, as is a DD/CL task force. Their path is an area I've noticed John's recon to be a bit lacking at, so they might have an undetected approach. We'll see. The carriers should be able to attack 2 turns from now with a flank speed final run in.

[Anachro]

India

In India, I haven't quite got good enough recon on Howrah yet and will reconfirm tomorrow. 7 units are there right now, however, and could very well be a few divisions. John has 2-3 divisions at Asanol, 3-4 east of it, etc. Depending on how John allocates his forces, I plan to push down to Howrah which is very close to Calcutta and then on to Calcutta. I am building air bases at Asanol, Jamshedpur, and Ranchi - all of which can be made naturally level 7 airfields (and then higher). John hasn't been doing much with his air force here so this has allowed me time to recooperate my fighter (and bomber) wings, which will be employed to mass effect during the offensive if the opportunity arises.

We'll see. Some forces on the outskirts of Bezwada, but nothing too worrying.

[Anachro]

Forgot to mention that a sub at Lunga hit two xAKs and sinking sounds are heard twice, which is nice.

Submarine attack near Lunga at 114,138

Japanese Ships
xAK Mikage Maru, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS S-23

Submarine attack near Lunga at 114,138

Japanese Ships
xAK Santos Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS S-23

SS S-23 is sighted by xAK Santos Maru
SS S-23 launches 2 torpedoes

[Anachro]

August 12 1942

My carrier force off of Canton Island last turn moves back past Christmas Island at flank speed and, as hoped, is undetected by Japanese recon. This is nice as John seems to have doubled the number of reconnaissance planes at Canton Island over the lat turn. These carriers will now retire to Pearl Harbor for refueling and minor repairs, as have most of my surface ships. My damaged destroyers are moving ever-so-slowly away from Canton.

South of Ndeni, my carriers approach John's persistently hanging around transports and surface ships at Ndeni (they've been here for five turns or so) and while getting 3/3 DL will run into attack range tomorrow and see what's there. They will then retire back to Sydney. This feels like bait to me from John, but I have good reconnaissance out of Luganville for any approaching ships and my carriers have a relatively safe path of retreat back southwest.

[Anachro]

Another Japanese cargo ship sinks, this time around Kwajalein Island. I have a large number of submarines operating between Kwajalein, Tabiteaua (or however it is spelled), and Lunga, probably around 25-30 submarines are in the area. Almost none show any form of DL except for those operating around Ndeni and Lunga.

Sub attack near Kwajalein Island at 132,116

Japanese Ships
xAK Eiwa Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS S-47

[Anachro]

August 13 1942

I'm getting very, very frustrated with the poor performance of my naval bombers. Can someone take a look at me and tell me if these guys are badly trained? They have high 50-60s in XP, ~70+ for naval bombing, and decent defense and yet they still can't hit the backside of a barnyard. This does not mesh at all with the performance of my bombers in previous PBEMs and games. What the heck is up? We find a decent number of DDs and CLs at Ndeni with some CAP, but that doesn't account for the paltry performance. I'd guess only the DD sinks. I'm disgusted. Really, the only difference is my adoption of the new 13k altitude setting for my naval strike package. I will go back to 10k where I've had much greater success in the past.

My three CVs had to self-replenish and thus cannot move far. I have ~100 LBA fighters at Luganville. WHAT THE HECKK!? we move to CAP cover and head south.



But hey, we sank another cargo ship? Small victories.

Submarine attack near Jaluit at 134,123

Japanese Ships
xAK Hoshi Maru, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS S-30

xAK Hoshi Maru is sighted by SS S-30
SS S-30 launches 2 torpedoes at xAK Hoshi Maru

[Anachro]

Actually, it seems I can move my CVs farther. We split off low-fuel DDs to join up with a CL/DD fleet nearby in a green dot hex at Lakatoro and my CVs pull farther back towards Brisbane. Can someone please give me pointers on my CV pilots? Should they all be 70+ xp?

[Anachro]

My other carriers have refueled and are on their way back to Pearl. John seems to have subs about the area sporadically.

[Anachro]

In India, Howrah seems weakly defended. Is there a way to tell how much DL I have over a land hex so I can ascertain the veracity of these troop estimates? 5 units could be much more than what is estimated here, could be a few tanks or regiments, could just be engineers. This is of great interest to me as this is a very direct means to push towards Calcutta and John seems to have concentrated troops at Asanol, outside Bezwada, and division or so at Sambalur, last seen heading south. Airfields at Ranchi rise to 4(7), Asanol is 78% to 5(7), Jamshedpur is 70% to 2(7).

[Anachro]

Another one of my divebomber groups...they really shouldn't be doing so badly. I really think the 13k altitude is a big difference. Of course, this is just my bias to look for blame anywhere other than my training. This is really bugging me. I've had a number of engagements in this game now where I should have given John a black nose only to be let down by the very subpar performance of my bombers.

Gallery, what settings do you typically do for your naval strike packages? What is your standard front-line expected XP and training for your bomber units?



In other news...

Remember that nasty little trick where we filled the narrow waterways leading to Palembang with a bunch of mines which caused havoc among like a bazillion Japanese tankers? Today, we get our first confirmed sinking from that event with the TK Meizan Maru listed as going down on June 12th. Perhaps some JFBs can correct me, but I think she's one of the better Japanese tankers.

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: Anachro
I'm getting very, very frustrated with the poor performance of my naval bombers. Can someone take a look at me and tell me if these guys are badly trained? They have high 50-60s in XP, ~70+ for naval bombing, and decent defense and yet they still can't hit the backside of a barnyard. This does not mesh at all with the performance of my bombers in previous PBEMs and games. What the heck is up? We find a decent number of DDs and CLs at Ndeni with some CAP, but that doesn't account for the paltry performance. I'd guess only the DD sinks. I'm disgusted. Really, the only difference is my adoption of the new 13k altitude setting for my naval strike package. I will go back to 10k where I've had much greater success in the past.

Thunderstorms in the hex

ORIGINAL: Anachro
In India, Howrah seems weakly defended. Is there a way to tell how much DL I have over a land hex so I can ascertain the veracity of these troop estimates?

Compare estimates over several turns and pick maximum

ORIGINAL: Anachro
Perhaps some JFBs can correct me, but I think she's one of the better Japanese tankers.

Japan has a bunch of 10-12k volume tankers with 18 speed. This one is slow middle-volume vessel mainly useful for short legged shuttle operations like PB->Singers