The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[JeffroK]

Thats better.

[JohnDillworth]

Get those search planes up and subs deployed forward fast. You might be able to catch reinforcements or convoys trying to sneak in or out. If you can spare a Fletcher or 2 they tend to get pretty deep without being detected and can wreck havoc on undefended shipping. Pretty hard to hit from the air too. Johns got some pretty good bases around there so you want to make him pay for everything he moves there.

[Canoerebel]

Actually, John's base network is remarkably slim. I think Ternate and Ambon are his only two decent airfields. Just about evertying else is a zero airield, including Sorong, Morotai, Manikwari, Lobolato, Boela (it might have a small field), Babo and a host of others.

Ambon and Ternate are too distant to create real problems early on.

If (always "if") tomorrow goes well at Manikwari, the herd then moves to Sorong, which is the most important Allied target - it gets four engineering regiments so that it can be built as big as possible as fast as possible.

I'll probably need at least two days at Sorong, but as soon as possible I want to move out from there towards the next target. There are two options: (1) move south towards Ambon (a major target) to prevent John from reinforcing; or (2) move to Morotai.

Events may dictate a different decision in a few days, but I'm leaning towards Morotai. I think it's more of a threat to John's inner line of defnese. If Morotai (which is one of my major targets) is taken in strength, then John is going to begin focusing on the defenses of Borneo and Mindanao. If I, instead, move south towards Ambon, then John's focus is more forward, on the Celbes, Moluccus, Borneo, Java.

So I think the more effective tactic is to focus north first.

Once I have Sorong attended to (no more than the second day of landings there) I'll feel comfortable detaching TFs to raid here and there.

[Canoerebel]

P.S. Search planes are already up at Nabire (the dot hex in western New Guinea) and Satawal, so I'm not blind (I hope).

[Encircled]

Us JFBs know we can't defend everywhere, so we try to do the best we can.

I think all of us have got that massive gap in our defences were you go

"I hope he doesn't notice that"

right up to the moment the whole USN turns up at it

[Canoerebel]

Redacted: I just finished running seven miles up a mountain in Georgia heat and humidity. My brain was fried. Part II (Part I to follow, in a sequence that makes sense only to me in my addled state).

[Canoerebel]

Redacted: I just finished running seven miles up a mountain in Georgia heat and humidity. My brain was fried.

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

Re: Sabang. Risking and losing approx. 7 divisions and supporting forces (most of which can be rebuilt) reduced the period of IJ initiative by at least 6 months. Huge win.

I think Alfred's point was that John III turned it into a win by not appropriately exploiting the Allied weakness in LCUs during the period the destroyed units were rebuilding.
I'm not sure I completely understand Alfred's expectations for the IJA after Sabang - they could go after China and Burma/Assam or even press further in SOPAC, but CR has shown that his current moves make all those areas irrelevant.

Except for VP harvesting purposes... don't underestimate LCU VPs. Also, I wonder if it would have been possible to bleed the Allied army device pools even more. That would be a gamebreaker if it got far enough.

LCU are essential for the capture and holding of bases from which to operate LBA and all naval forces. An abundance of LCU enables more flexibility in planning, a higher tempo of operations, and insurance against failed operations. All of those are advantages that allow best use of naval and air superiority.

As for the "disaster" at Sabang, I'd be willing to bet the Japanese would like to have utilized the 3 corps plus of LCUs devoted to Sumatra for the 6 months elsewhere. They would have been used against Allied defenders without the possibility of retreat, so they would have been racking up VPs, and they would have left the Japanese in better defensive positions (at least as far as Japanese choices as to the locations). The window of opportunity for the Japanese in the aftermath of Sumatra was greatly reduced by the time required to repulse the Allies and the concentration of forces necessary. Some of the forces were necessary as a strategic reserve, most had to recover from the effects of the battle and all had to be transported to future use locations. When the victorious Japanese LCU met their next enemies they also would have faced defenders with improved devices with adequate air defenses. I look at Sumatra as the Allies traded 6 months worth of losses they would have been inevitable all over the map for somewhat more losses at one location. The trade off was VPs from LCU for VP from captured territory. A kind of Russian strategy in reverse, sacrifice men for time and territory.

I was hesitant to use the word sacrifice, but that is how it turned out. A better word might have been gamble since there was the possibility of success for the Allied invasion. It was a big bet at odds making it worth risking for the Allies. It left them short stacked temporarily, but they had more chips coming to replace those lost.

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Redacted: I just finished running seven miles up a mountain in Georgia heat and humidity. My brain was fried.

Proof that exercise & sweat is bad for you [:D] I'll just sit here under the A/C & plot the ruin of several major financial institutions

[AcePylut]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

In my Japan AAR game, this AAR made me look at the dot hex. I made a note of it for the future. It's so hard to see unless its pointed out to you! We are all becoming quite paranoid, indeed.

(waves hand all jedi-mind-trick style)

There is no need to tend to green dots... there is no need to tend to green dots... invade the US West Coast... invade the US West Coast...


LOL - turn will come tonite, I was sick last night.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

ORIGINAL: Anachro

In my Japan AAR game, this AAR made me look at the dot hex. I made a note of it for the future. It's so hard to see unless its pointed out to you! We are all becoming quite paranoid, indeed.

(waves hand all jedi-mind-trick style)

There is no need to tend to green dots... there is no need to tend to green dots... invade the US West Coast... invade the US West Coast...


LOL - turn will come tonite, I was sick last night.

I think your mind trick worked on Lowpe ...

[Canoerebel]

11/14/43

Big Tent: D-Day goes without a hitch, which is a rarity in this complex game. The three targeted bases are basically or totally undefended, meaning the Allies indeed achieved strategic surprise. (But not operational surprise, John keeps emphasizing - more about that below).

At Manikwari, 1st Cavalry Div. comes ashore in excellent condition and finds a small pioneer engineer unit (SigInt had disclosed this several months back). The cavalary, with 383 AV, low disruption, low fatigue, should take the base tomorrow. The big USN base force, the army engineering regiment, and the HQ unit are present to begin working on port and airfield facilities.

Biak and Noemfoor are undefended and will fall to the small units landed there (barring an unlikely Japanese spoiling attack).

Japanese subs didn't create problems; no sign of combat ships or carriers (I wish I had a lead on those guys); a small strike comes in from Palau well escorted by Franks and Georges. Death Star's massive CAP handled this with the Japanese suffering 3:1 losses (the only loss to speak of for the Allies was 10 Wildcats).

SigInt reports a division to Balikpapan, two divisions to Ambon (16th, as before, plus 2nd Guards, which previously was heading for Ternate), and Jap regiment to Aitape. These are very interesting. Combined with John's email comment (more about that below), this tells me alot about what he thinks. He thinks this is a fairly localized operation, but we're just getting started.

John does have enough level four airfields to pose some danger to the Allies, but they really don't worry me unless KB shows up. Like I said, I wish I knew it's whereabouts. Soon I'll have alot more nav search, so then I'll feel better. Then, when the first airfields are operational (probably within a week), things will stabilize.

In the meantime, I'm going to do something unusual. Rather than keeping all those TFs at Biak, Noemfoor and Manikwari to unload more troops and lots of supply, all of them are weighing anchor tonight. Death Star is moving aggressively NW towards Morotai. I don't want to leave shipping behind without air cover, so they have to come along. Death Star will take station a few hexes NW of Sorong, to cover landings there tomorrow (the most important target of them all; probably lightly defended, but we'll see) and four hexes from Morotai. If things go well, the invasion of Morotai (5th Indian Div.) will take place in two or three days.

If that's successful, the threat to PI and vicinity becomes more real and imminent. I think John then shifts his highes priority to attending to Borneo/PI/etc., probably rendering some places (Aitape, Boela, Babo, Taberfane, Saumlauki, Merauke, Horn Island, etc) less important. If I'm right, he diverts some troops that otherwise might come into the main target area.

Ambon will be interesting. If he parks two divisions there, I probably don't invade. Instead, I'd use that division for some other likely base that might neutralize Ambon.

At some point, I do have to pull back to establish a viable LOC. I might do this via the north coast of New Guinea, but far more likely I'll go along the south coast, aiming for the Saumlauki/Taberfane complex, Merauke, Horn Island, and Port Moresby. If those are taken, I have a fairly secure route to good ports (but a long way off) and John has a problem on the north end of the DEI that he probably can't remedy. His only option will be to create a new firewall closer to home.

[Canoerebel]

John's email to me:

"This is what I wrote on the November 3rd turn:

"Haven't had a chance to run the run as of yet due to leaving for a Historical Society event this morning.

"Spent part of the night waiting for the turn and am willing to now make some predictions: 1. He shall move past Truk and head for the North Coast of New Guinea. Targets: Biak or others in that area.

"Sometimes I get things right!"

I don't reply to John's comments (to avoid taunting or otherwise giving offense), or if I do reply its neutral about something else entirely. But if I did reply, I'd want to ask: "Why aren't they defended then?"

It's pretty clear that the pre-invasion analysis was on target. The Allies have indeed achieved strategic surprise. John was (understandably) focused on Marcus, the Marianas, Truk and the Marshalls. He's scrambling to throw together a new line of defenses. He's probably a bit chagrined. He might be desperate enough to commit combat ships or carriers thinking that he's got to do something to stop the bleeding.

So things are off to a promising start, but I've got to balance caution against the opportunities to strike deep, establish bases on the cusp of his oil producing centers, and jangle his nerves so that perhaps he doesn't think clearly for awhile.

For instance, in the past he would've jumped all over Satawal and Wake Island by now, since they're isolated at the moment. But I think his equilibrium is off. That will change soon. In fact, I think it's changing now. He's already showing a bit more fight in his emails and his body language.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John's email to me:

"This is what I wrote on the November 3rd turn:

"Haven't had a chance to run the run as of yet due to leaving for a Historical Society event this morning.

"Spent part of the night waiting for the turn and am willing to now make some predictions: 1. He shall move past Truk and head for the North Coast of New Guinea. Targets: Biak or others in that area.

"Sometimes I get things right!"

I don't reply to John's comments (to avoid taunting or otherwise giving offense), or if I do reply its neutral about something else entirely. But if I did reply, I'd want to ask: "Why aren't they defended then?"

It's pretty clear that the pre-invasion analysis was on target. The Allies have indeed achieved strategic surprise. John was (understandably) focused on Marcus, the Marianas, Truk and the Marshalls. He's scrambling to throw together a new line of defenses. He's probably a bit chagrined. He might be desperate enough to commit combat ships or carriers thinking that he's got to do something to stop the bleeding.

So things are off to a promising start, but I've got to balance caution against the opportunities to strike deep, establish bases on the cusp of his oil producing centers, and jangle his nerves so that perhaps he doesn't think clearly for awhile.

For instance, in the past he would've jumped all over Satawal and Wake Island by now, since they're isolated at the moment. But I think his equilibrium is off. That will change soon. In fact, I think it's changing now. He's already showing a bit more fight in his emails and his body language.

I am willing to bet that up till a month or two ago John thought that these bases need not be covered as his superior carrier force prevented this sort of shenanigan. However with events unfolding in the way that they did there was just no plan "B." There should always be a plan B.

I assume the once set up you will backtrack for Manus and Hansa Bay? They will be your closest level 9 airfield and level 7 port until you reach the PI. I can see the reasons for his leaving your present targets without a garrison but Hansa Bay? That is unthinkable. [X(]

The thing is that the Japanese player always has to focus on the Allies most advanced foothold. If you are secure around Biak then everything behind it can be taken at your leisure. Not necessarily easily but it will be hard for him to contest. If I learned anything from your style of play as the Allies is that sometimes if just pays to go ahead and stick your foot into the tar baby and take the lumps that go with it. It is all about denying initiative.

[Canoerebel]

I have troops prepped for Vanimo, Hansa Bay and Manus. Those bases are (I think) undefended at the moment. I'll be busy "forward" for a long time, however, so my best hope is that pressure exerted forwards forces John to neglect what is about to become his rear (just like you're saying).

Tomorrow's targets: (1) Sorong - the most important target in the entire mission. The assault troops include 41st Div., two army construction regiments, a big USN base force, a Brit BF, and an HQ unit. Lots more in the follow up TFs, but that may be delayed while I move on Morotai or Ambon; (2) Sansapor - this dot base beside Sorong can be built into a port and airfield; it gets part of a US RCT and a nice USN base force; should be undefended; (3) Waigeo - this island off of Sorong doesn't have port capablity but does have big airfield capability. It gets only part of a US RCT for now.

All CVLs, CAs and CLAAs replenished fuel today. All carrier TFs can go a long distance now if necessary. I plan to replenish CVs and BBs tomorrow.

My AOs have distributed alot of fuel - most are now between 30% and 70% full - with an average of about 50%. I do have a great deal of TKs and fuel-toting xAKs present.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John's email to me:

"This is what I wrote on the November 3rd turn:

"Haven't had a chance to run the run as of yet due to leaving for a Historical Society event this morning.

"Spent part of the night waiting for the turn and am willing to now make some predictions: 1. He shall move past Truk and head for the North Coast of New Guinea. Targets: Biak or others in that area.

"Sometimes I get things right!"

This sounds like 100% bluster to cause you to be cautious and slow the pace of your operation. Pay no attention to the man behind the screen!

[Canoerebel]

Is the man behind the curtain Bullwinkle wearing nothing but a goat-skin Speedo?

[Flicker]

Taba naba!

Re: KB. How many carriers needed repair after the Marshalls / Wake campaign? Where would they have gone for repair? Do / did you have subs waiting for a shot? It seems to me that the home islands would have the nearest repair yards, which is why I fuss about keeping subs on the roads of the major ports - a damaged ship sinks better with just a little 21" help... How long will it take for them to repair?

I've noticed an ebb and flow in my (AI) games, where at times there is a lull after an action. It seems that you stole a march during what John might have been expected to be a lull. Operation Third Ring looks as if it's shaping up to be more of the same.

[Canoerebel]

I think Akagi needed repairs, but she could be back in action now. The battle was nearly two months ago.

I had subs between Wake and Tokyo but didn't catch a sniff of any retiring ships.

Allied subs are now mainly posted between Tokyo and the Big Tent area, with the largest concentrations clustered just east and just west of the Marshalls.

[Canoerebel]

Big Tent begins to unfold.