TOP SECRET ORM + WARSPITE ONLY (Reverse AAR)

[Orm]

At least our joint U-boat campaign hurts the CW war effort.

[warspite1]

Suggested German orders for Nov/Dec EoT

2 x defensive chits – move one to defence

Prelim Saving 3 oil (in addition to the 2 Trade received being saved in Berlin).
Prague (Synth) in place
Austria (resource) in Lodz
Germany (resource) in Lodz
= 13 build points

Expend 2.4 oil on all units except naval and naval bombers.

Production
INF
ARM
MIL
SUB (1st Cycle)
(Save 1 BP in Berlin)

Reinforcement
FTR to Aachen
NAV to Bremen

[Orm]

I thought that the German U-boat program was scrapped.

[warspite1]

To be honest its all a bit difficult to recall when there is o big a gap between phases - let alone turns.

Happy to swap for a pilot instead.

[Orm]

Indeed. It is easy to forget with the slow pace and multiple games going. [:(]

A pilot instead of a sub it is then. [:)]

[Orm]

Do not forget to move the updated end of turn instructions for Germany to the main thread.

[warspite1]

Suggested Moves

Germany Land. -2 on land attacks and no air so turn used to position.

Rail Movement: Two MIL in Germany to Warsaw. GARR from eastern France to Konigsberg
Land Movement: Move 1-5 MOT and 9-4 INF to (56,28) Swap PARA and MECH southwest of Paris.
Rebase: BF-109 Aachen to Reims; Bf-109 (56,32) to (56,28) Bf-110c Metz to (56,32) Bf-110C (56,33) to (54,33)

Condor for Italian use as they see fit.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Suggested Moves

Germany Land. -2 on land attacks and no air so turn used to position.

Rail Movement: Two MIL in Germany to Warsaw. GARR from eastern France to Konigsberg
Land Movement: Move 1-5 MOT and 9-4 INF to (56,28) Swap PARA and MECH southwest of Paris.
Rebase: BF-109 Aachen to Reims; Bf-109 (56,32) to (56,28) Bf-110c Metz to (56,32) Bf-110C (56,33) to (54,33)

Condor for Italian use as they see fit.

This impulse should indeed be used for preparations. I suggest that Germany create a Paris pocket. With supply help from Graziani it can be closed. I also think that the German armoured division should join the main army. It is to expensive to risk against a low odds French attack.

France has not much air left. I think rebasing the German ATR closer to the paratrooper should take priority over fighters. The Italian ATR can not be used this turn.

[Orm]

Any chance we can rebase the Condor to the Mediterranean front during this impulse?

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

Any chance we can rebase the Condor to the Mediterranean front during this impulse?

warspite1

Yes, as per post 727, I am assuming the naval air is effectively under Italy's control.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Orm

Any chance we can rebase the Condor to the Mediterranean front during this impulse?

warspite1

Yes, as per post 727, I am assuming the naval air is effectively under Italy's control.

Yes. I was thinking of the German air moves and what might have priority.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Orm

Any chance we can rebase the Condor to the Mediterranean front during this impulse?

warspite1

Yes, as per post 727, I am assuming the naval air is effectively under Italy's control.

Yes. I was thinking of the German air moves and what might have priority.

warspite1

Ah okay, there will be a space for this move set aside.

[Orm]

Land Movement:

Suggestion: Move the Italian HQA two hexes West to put German units in supply. Although you can move it as you like.

Debark:

Japan debark two land units; MTN to Haichow, and CAV to Canton.

Air Rebase:

Germany:

Italy suggests and requests that the Condor rebases to hex 74, 39 on Sicily.

Italy:

The LND3 rebase to hex 63, 30 on the Riviera. Unless, of course, that Germany has some other use for it, then it rebases to the hex that Germany wants it in.

Japan:
ATR in Sasebo -> Haichow
FTR2 (4 strength Ki 27) -> Shanghai
FTR2 (4 strength Ki 27) -> Shanghai
FTR2 (Ki 27) in Chihkiang -> hex 86, 135

[warspite1]

Not much to be done in this weather. I was thinking about completing the circle around Paris by moving up to the river - and then moving the MTN into the forest to stop the MIL from moving south.

This would mean few land moves so I could do a combined to get the subs out? Thoughts?

[Orm]

Weather isn't all that bad. At this point I think snow is better than rain.

I think two or three attacks should be considered. To begin clearing France up and to close the Paris pocket.

1) The attack on the Dakar MIL should be automatic before air support.
2) The attack on the Metz MIL is 4:1 before air support and can be made automatic with most of German air used, and possible French support is aborted. Although French HQ support may reduce the odds. There is a possibility to add the PARA to this attack although that reduce the odds. The downside is that there is no good loss unit available.
3) The attack on the force East of Paris is 2.2:1 or something like that before support. One Stuka could be sent to see if any of the defenders are disorganized. If two defenders become disorganized, then I think this hex should be attacked as well.

With the destruction of the Dakar MIL we threaten to take all the French Major Ports in the next turn. If we do that, and take all minor ports except Bayonne, then France will not have enough bases for their battleships and that would benefit us during Vichy creation. Maybe even to the point that France will consider surrendering. remember that France must consider this point one entire turn at a time. Note that CW forces in a port has same effect as we capturing the port.

[warspite1]

I thought we weren't taking chances so I didn't look too closely at that. I suppose we don't have to advance on the 3-3 MIL hex so that would work.

But if we can get a high odds attacks on the Dakar MILs then fine.

[Orm]

I should have explained the main point of the low odds attack on the hex East of Paris. If the Metz MIL is destroyed. Or forced to retreat to Boulogne. Then the full sized units east of Paris have no retreat path. That is if German units ZOC the relevant hexes. The three remaining French hexes all have two full sized units. A retreat result destroys two units and it is 50% chance to get a retreat result, or better, on a 2:1 blitz attack.

Hence I think all three attacks should be made even if getting the best odds on all 3 is impossible.

[warspite1]

Well I've looked at this and maybe (probably) I'm missing a trick but I think the odds are too risky.

Happy to take out the Sengalese MIL but I am not keen on the other two attacks.

[Orm]

I think we have a decent chance of hurting the French now. The weather might be worse than this for a long time. Rain, or storm is way worse than snow. So it can be until summer before there are better odds in France. And they might rectify their mistake of leaving a 3 strength MIL alone in a important hex. They certainly will if we threaten to attack from two hexes.

The odds I mentioned was without air support. And Germany has loads of air to throw in support of attacks. And lots of fighter to stop French support or see that German support gets through. Since all the attacks are blitz the chance of losses are fairly low and HQs are available to reorganize all the attacking forces. And the snow will affect Allied counter-attacks adversely as well.

The more I look at the blitz combat charts, the more I am in favour for all three attacks. Average dice rolls would be 4 lost French units and 1 German division. (Only 5s rolled on 2:1+1, 4:1, and 5:1) and the odds should be higher than that with average luck.

[Orm]

Also. If the attack next to Paris succeeds then we have a shot at Paris. Maybe even this turn.