The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Bullwinkle is the Great Oz? And what exactly is the Moose doing behind that curtain?

Magic tricks. "Nothin' up my sleeve! Presto!"

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I wouldn't have pulled the trigger on Big Tent if KB was still intact. Not even close. I'd be content to work closer to home. I might've targeted the Ellice Islands (Funafuti, etc.) or perhaps tried to hit Kwaj or Roi or Tabituea. But I wouldn't be venturing deep.

Incredibly valuable information for any JFB playing in 1943 time frame, and probably early 44 too.

Absolutely no reason for Japan ever to go gallivanting across the globe in 1943.

[Canoerebel]

Until the Allies win the decisive carrier battle, they have to strike with total surprise (Sumatra campaign, Aleutians campaign, first Marshalls campaign) or in fairly friendly waters (second Marshalls campaign). At least that's the case in '42 and '43.

Big Tent couldn't have achieved total surprise (John has been following the herd since French Frigate Shoals in October!), nor was it aimed at friendly waters. Can you image a massive carrier battle near Truk in which John had equal or greater numbers and Allied wounded and cripples had no viable vectors to get home?

No, Big Tent wouldn't have happened had there not been a Great Naval Battle of Wake Island from September 19 to September 23, 1943.

[Canoerebel]

11/15/43

Today was an exceptionally eventful and good day for the Allies leaving many opportunities (and decisions to make) for tomorrow.

Big Tent: Amphibious assaults at Sorong, Sansapor and Waigeo go without a hitch. Only Sorong is defended, and that's by a fragment of 1st Raiding Regiment probably airlifted in. 41st Div., two naval BF, two construction regiments and an HQ are ashore. All three bases will fall tomorrow.

Manikwari and Biak fell today and Noemfoor will fall tomorrow (I ordered an attack there, I swear, but apparently I didn't).

Manik and Sorong were the heart of this operation. They were the first major targets and this op can succeed even if no other major targets are taken. John will have something to say about that, but so far so good. Sorong will get four construction regiments so that it can be built big as fast as possible.

Jap subs were present, sinking a AK, an SC, and damaging an APA. One of the subs was badly damaged by ASW. But John had vectored the subs on Manikwari even as I was moving everything to Sorong and vicinity. So John seemed to evaluate this as a slowly unfolding op limited to a fairly restricted area. He may be drawing different conclusions now.

DD Jupiter detached and patrolled Ambon (this was a notion given by one of you readers yesterday) and struck gold. It found and tore into a big and defenseless merchant convoy carrying troops. Jupiter sank ten ships and destroyed something like 75 squads before running out of ammo.

In possibly the most important development, patrols find KB at Manus. John's probably moving them to the Big Tent AOO, but they can't arrive for a couple of more days. This provides some latitude to move more boldly. John had his reasons, of course, but for his Kongos and KB to be down in the Solomons while the herd was lumbering slowly across CenPac is, I think, devastatingly counterproductive for him.

Now I have an important decision to make: the herd can roll west and invade Morotai (probably weakly defended) and an adjacent base or two tomorrow, or it can move WSW, invade a few targeted dot hexes, but take control of the skies and sea lanes around Ceram.

Morotai, Ambon and Boela are all major targets. I'm leaning towards a split - invading Morotai but detaching a few Fletchers to patrol at Ambon.

With what happened today, John might fear Death Star moving on Ambon or other dangers to his divisions (assuming that's what's being carried), so he may divert his TFs south.

Indeed, the SigInt reporting 2nd Guards bound for Ternate and then for Ambon now reports it is headed for Soerabaja.

And what happens in three days when (and if) KB arrives in theater? What if Death Star moves south towards Ceram or east from there, keeping New Guinea between the two carrier forces. I'm not necessarily afraid of KB, but I don't want to take it on amidst a nest of supporting enemy airfields. But since Boela and Babo are important targets, I could attend to them and them move into a no-man's-land where I'd gladly meet KB head on.

Of course, my newly taken bases are then on their own for awhile, but the major ones will have divisions well prepped. No way John can retake them short term. And it shouldn't be too long before the Allies get airfields of their own. John may try to suppress via bombing, but what if he has ten or fifteen targets to deal with?

The number of variables involved in the equation is immense. It's challenging and very exciting. There is danger, but great opportunity. And knowing where KB is makes all the difference.

[obvert]

Hard to believe from an IJ perspective that all of these bases are empty?? [X(]

Funny to see that the KB is SE of your forces! Easy pickins. [:)]

[Canoerebel]

Sorong is closer to Sabang than it is to Wake Island. John booted me out of Sumatra just four months ago. At the time, I never thought I'd be back by November.

A small but important event a month in the making just happened at Wake Island. The Canadian brigade couldn't upgrade from Militia to '43 Infantry because a cadre of it's motor support was at San Fan. Three xAKs departed there about three weeks ago and managed to make it and unload. Today, the Canadians upgraded. The brigade is 100% prepped and is behind 3.81 forts (should go to four in about five days).

Enemy TFs are active in CenPac. One is approaching Wake from the NW. Another approached a few days back from the south. John's going to raid. But there's not a lot out there.

[obvert]

You're gutting his position and he's going to raid Cent Pac ...

[Canoerebel]

Well, I mean he's raiding with DDs, which might be an effective use of small detachments.

But your larger point is on target. The Kongos were bombarding Tarawa and KB was somewhere in the Solomons or Coral Sea while the herd did what it did.

[Canoerebel]

One major impact of knowing where KB is (or enough of KB to make all the difference) is that my carriers can attend more efficiently to defense. I'll probably set most of my fighter squadrons to zero range; I will, that is, unless I decide to target any enemy shipping at Ambon.

[Cap Mandrake]

Seems like the IJN carriers are covering the landing of troops at Aitape.

Also the apparent emergency landing of troops at Ambon despite the proximity of your forces was quite desperate. I think you can infer the base is poorly guarded. Forget what I said about going North. This is a great opportunity. [:)]

Also the emergency air transport of elite 1st landing regt to Sorong is pretty desperate. He is really caught flat footed here. Defintely makes me wonder what he has at Manado and even Kendari

[Lokasenna]

He can run the carriers at flank from Manus and strike the Biak area on the same day. Beware.

Edit: Assuming 8-hex full speed for him, he can actually reach all the way to Sansapor with an 8-hex strike.

[JohnDillworth]

(this was a notion given by one of you readers yesterday

I do believe that was me although I did not specify targets. I had recommended a Fletcher or two, working torpedoes , good radar, long range and fast. These things are murder in 1944 [:)]

[DW]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Until the Allies win the decisive carrier battle, they have to strike with total surprise (Sumatra campaign, Aleutians campaign, first Marshalls campaign) or in fairly friendly waters (second Marshalls campaign). At least that's the case in '42 and '43.

Big Tent couldn't have achieved total surprise (John has been following the herd since French Frigate Shoals in October!), nor was it aimed at friendly waters. Can you image a massive carrier battle near Truk in which John had equal or greater numbers and Allied wounded and cripples had no viable vectors to get home?

No, Big Tent wouldn't have happened had there not been a Great Naval Battle of Wake Island from September 19 to September 23, 1943.

Sorry... I should have been more clear.

I was actually after Capt. Mandrake's thoughts. He's done an number of advances along that axis, snatching poorly defended Japanese bases one after another with minimal forces and covered by minimal naval power.

To an observer like myself, his advances seem as magical as his nom de guerre would imply, and the Japanese player seems absolutely helpless to do anything meaningful to slow him down.

But, I don't recall him ever attempting such and advance with KB as strong as it currently is in your game.

Still, the Death Star is likely powerful enough to keep KB at bay if you did attempt such a move.

I was just wondering if he thought such an advance was still viable considering the balance of power in your game (that he's encouraging you to try it indicates he thinks it is) and what his reasoning is.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
He can run the carriers at flank from Manus and strike the Biak area on the same day. Beware.

Edit: Assuming 8-hex full speed for him, he can actually reach all the way to Sansapor with an 8-hex strike.

Yeah, he could, but I don't hink he will due to SYS damage. But even if he did it wouldn't have a material effect because nearly all ships are weighing anchor again as the herd will lumber NW to Morotai or SW to Ceram.

I'm not sure which to do yet. I think now I'm leaning just a bit towards Ceram, to take control of that region temporarily. Even if it turns out Ambon is strongly defended, I think Boela may be vacant and I think Namlea is fairly lightly defended. The latter (as another forumite - Cap? - mentioned yesterday offers a level two airfield.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: DW

Sorry... I should have been more clear.

I was actually after Capt. Mandrake's thoughts. He's done an number of advances along that axis, snatching poorly defended Japanese bases one after another with minimal forces and covered by minimal naval power.

To an observer like myself, his advances seem as magical as his nom de guerre would imply, and the Japanese player seems absolutely helpless to do anything meaningful to slow him down.

But, I don't recall him ever attempting such and advance with KB as strong as it currently is in your game.

Still, the Death Star is likely powerful enough to keep KB at bay if you did attempt such a move.

I was just wondering if he thought such an advance was still viable considering the balance of power in your game (that he's encouraging you to try it indicates he thinks it is) and what his reasoning is.

Heh. I thought your description of my games didn't quite match my memory of my games, but I went with it thinking, "Well, he's entitled to his perception."

[Canoerebel]

It's been seven weeks since the Naval Battle of Wake Island. Since then, John has used KB to raid the sea lanes near Wake (a month ago - that came up empty) and now it's at Marcus (and possibly has been in the Solomons per a sighting of a CVL awhile back). So John is remaining aggressive with the use of his carriers, not risking them against Death Star (yet), but not hiding either.

But for the past three weeks or longer I didn't know KB's location. It was forcing me to keep the cattle grouped carefully and to act with enhance caution. I'm not letting my guard down - LBA is out there and enemy carriers could be too - but I do feel like I have at least a two-day window to move strongly to invade.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: DW

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Until the Allies win the decisive carrier battle, they have to strike with total surprise (Sumatra campaign, Aleutians campaign, first Marshalls campaign) or in fairly friendly waters (second Marshalls campaign). At least that's the case in '42 and '43.

Big Tent couldn't have achieved total surprise (John has been following the herd since French Frigate Shoals in October!), nor was it aimed at friendly waters. Can you image a massive carrier battle near Truk in which John had equal or greater numbers and Allied wounded and cripples had no viable vectors to get home?

No, Big Tent wouldn't have happened had there not been a Great Naval Battle of Wake Island from September 19 to September 23, 1943.

Sorry... I should have been more clear.

I was actually after Capt. Mandrake's thoughts. He's done an number of advances along that axis, snatching poorly defended Japanese bases one after another with minimal forces and covered by minimal naval power.

To an observer like myself, his advances seem as magical as his nom de guerre would imply, and the Japanese player seems absolutely helpless to do anything meaningful to slow him down.

But, I don't recall him ever attempting such and advance with KB as strong as it currently is in your game.

Still, the Death Star is likely powerful enough to keep KB at bay if you did attempt such a move.

I was just wondering if he thought such an advance was still viable considering the balance of power in your game (that he's encouraging you to try it indicates he thinks it is) and what his reasoning is.

Well, one can't sail around with 100,000 troops and 200 ships deep in injun territory without superior carrier forces because the cost of defeat is catastrophic but one can grab empty bases with paratroops and small detachments using APD's and LCI's and LST's with small escorts. In this case, because the KB has been spotted, CR can use the Deathstar as a bulwark to cover the backside of the operationb near the NW corner of New Guinea and run wild West of that point. It is a great position. CR has stated he prefers to be cautious which is a perfectly sensible option. he is already taking some considerable risk with this much stuff this deep into enemy territory.

[DW]

Heh. I thought your description of my games didn't quite match my memory of my games, but I went with it thinking, "Well, he's entitled to his perception."

Lol...

Thought I was losing it, eh?

Your claim to fame is more akin to the deep forward pass, while Capt. Mandrake likes the broken field run.

[Canoerebel]

Cap summarizes it neatly, though I think I have 150,000 troops and 700 ships.

Of that number, two divisions are now completely ashore, along with some support units.

But I have to be a bit careful until I secure a base or two in or near Ceram. Once that's done, I do have a possible route of egress to Normanton in Oz. But that's not purely defensive thinking - Boela, Ambon, Babo, and possibly Namlea are also strong offensive position in the heart of the eastern DEI.

[jwolf]

Naive question from a beginner: suppose you are successful with Big Tent, and maybe Third Ring to follow. How much longer would it take to be able to shut down most or all oil and fuel imports to Japan? I'm trying to get a sense of just how desperate is the Japanese position or how might it become relatively soon?