The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[bradfordkay]

Hey Dan,

My long term game with Chez ended with his surrender (May '45) a couple of years ago. I had to talk him into dragging it out that long because I figured that neither of us would ever see the 1945 toys again... Since then I have been dabbling in a DBB solitaire game, but it isn't quite the same as a PBEM (as we all know). The problem is that life doesn't give me the time that most PBEM players want to dedicate to the game (2-3 turns a week is my limit).

Chez has been playing War in the West versus the AI, last I chatted with him. I am thinking of using my Matrix Anniversary 41% discount on a copy of that game, but I don't think that any other game will ever satisfy me the way this one has.

Outside of that, I sold my boat a few years ago and have been concentrating on cycling and hiking. They are less expensive activities that help keep these old bones in better shape.

[Canoerebel]

Brad,

Thanks for the update. It sure is good to see you around these parts again. I know what you mean about no other game being able to live up to this one. I agree.

Over the years, I too have morphed away from boating (in my case, canoeing) and spent much more time mountain biking and hiking. Canoeing wasn't expensive, but it does take a lot more logistics and time to set up shuttles. Hiking is now my favorite thing by far. In a world that seems kinda looney these days, the woods are the same. 98% of my hiking is solo and long distance. But in a few weeks, me and my two boys will hit the AT again. We have 51 miles to Damascus, VA. When we arrive, we'll have done Springer to Virginia over the course of nine years.

You take care, ya' hear?

Dan

[bradfordkay]

When you finally get up to northern Virginia, you will see Dick's Dome Shelter on the AT. It was built by my old Athens Roommate Sky George, his twin brother Everett and their dad Dick George (for whom it was named). Dick was hiking the AT a couple of weeks each year like you are doing but cancer has ended that trip. I think that he made it into New York but not Vermont.

East of Damascus is my favorite hiking are in the whole Southeast US - Mt Roger's National Recreation Area. I did several multiday hikes there - and even a bicycle trip from my dad's (post retirement) home in Boone up to Grayson Highlands State Park with Sky back in the early 80s.

I used to say that I wanted my ashes scattered at Rhododendron Gap (junction of Wilburn Ridge and the AT) in that section. Now I want them scattered in the Goat Rocks...

[Canoerebel]

11/16/43

Big Tent: See map for detailed explanation of a good day for the Allies with one fly in the ointment.

Landings go without a hitch at Morotia, a major targets, and a handful of minor targets.

Death Star sorties against hodge-podge shipping and stout LBA CAP cost me a bunch of Hellcats. This is a problem. I think Death Star can still stand vs. KB, but things are getting a bit more dicey.

KB is moving up the New Guinea coast. How fast will John come? Does his success in the air today embolden him?

The US Navy has done a fine job following on the RN (Jupiter) by keeping enemy transports at bay at Ambon and Boela. I'm going to try a snap landing at Boela tomorrow. It seems undefended. I'd like to keep Babo open too.

Just in case there are further problems tomorrow, I'm moving in a direction that will allow egress to Gulf of Carpenteria if necessary. As part of that plan, CVEs and combat ships are moving from Sydney to Cairns. And big 4EB strikes ordered tomorrow for Port Moresby.

Airfield at Manikwari on day one went to 29%. Since that field is a 0(3) with just one engineer regiment, and since Sorong is a 0(5) with two regiments, I'm hoping things will really start off well at Sorong tomorrow.

Very interesting chess match going on here. Very interesting. Big Tent is off to a good start, but stakes are high and the enemy is baring its fangs.

[paradigmblue]

Have you thought about temporarily disbanding all of your amphibious TFs not covered by the Death Star to prevent naval attack on them? I can see the butcher's bill being deadly tomorrow as your TFs south of Sarong are exposed without cover if you move the Death Star into the Ceram Sea.

[Canoerebel]

Only a few scattered TFs won't rendezvous with the carriers. East of Sorong is nothing except perhaps three or four xAK that are moving for Sorong.j

Some of the TFs over near Morotai might not catch up with Death Star, but they won't be far behind.

Tomorrow will be interesting if KB moves fast and far. After tomorrow, I think the bulk of the Allied shipping will be distant enough from any enemy LBA that the exposure begins to go down quickly.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Only a few scattered TFs won't rendezvous with the carriers. East of Sorong is nothing except perhaps three or four xAK that are moving for Sorong.j

Some of the TFs over near Morotai might not catch up with Death Star, but they won't be far behind.

Tomorrow will be interesting if KB moves fast and far. After tomorrow, I think the bulk of the Allied shipping will be distant enough from any enemy LBA that the exposure begins to go down quickly.

You should still be fine down those 65 Hellcats. With the previous cull of the KB you know he doesn't have at least a few CV and CVL that he did, and you've added to your flotilla since then. The faster you can get some bases built and move on to do it again the less he'll have in place farther on. Let him rattle bones and bang symbols around the edges of the Tent. He can only get in if he pays the ticket price, and I'm not sure he'll be willing or able to do that this time.

So. The question is now, once the tent is fully pitched, the shows put on, the audience entertained, to what location will the troupe go next? Maybe pick-up a few new hairy attractions in the jungles of Borneo? A lithe trappese artist on the streets of Manila?

[Canoerebel]

11/17/43

Big Tent: All four days of Big Tent have gone very well, but Day 4 goes much better than Day 3. I was very concerned that KB would charge, making things stressful and messy. But the enemy carriers pulled back just a bit to Aitape. Now I'm nearly certain I'll have enough time to consolidate gains, get airfields operational, do some housework (including possibly replenishing), and prepare to execute a few contested landings. All of these are possible if John doesn't commit KB. And each day he doesn't will make things that much harder for him once Allied airfields get going.

The day opened with an IJN sub taking a shot at a USN carrier and missing (that's two days in a row - yikes!). A IJN CL/DD TF raided near Morotai and sank one ship. And some Japanese LBA sank an xAK and xAP. But that was about it for damage on the day

To counter, USN DDs hit a transport TF hard at Ambon, and naval air followed. There was another encounter that chased away a TF over near Boela. A bunch of enemy LBA strikes ran into Death Star CAP and got chewed up. Today was kind of the mirror image of yesterday, when Allied carrier strikes did the same thing.

Boela, a level 2 port, will fall tomorrow and will get a beefier garrison and USN base force. I'm also going to test Babo with a snap invasion. I'll send more if needed.

SigInt reports division fragments at Namlea and Babo with divisions or fragments heading to Taberfane and Balikpapan. Some of these reports are the same divisions changing destination every day for two, three, four consecutive days.

John is trying to put things together and has landed a few punches, but overall it seems that Big Tent caught him unprepared and has caused some confusion/undertainty.

It was a good turn. If KB loiters another day...well, Big Tent will be hard to stop at that point.

Third Ring: Massive Allied build up in NE Oz. Third Ring is ready to go if and when the carriers and empty transports (lots of those already) come this way.

4EB and SBDs hit Port Moresby fairly effectively. 2EB hit Horn Island less effectively. These raids continue until John puts up a fight.

One reasn for Big Tent was to create a front where 4EB can contribute. I've essentially sat on these for most of 1943. They're ready to go. Bit Tent/DEI is a great place to use them.

[Canoerebel]

oops, redacted duplicate

[JohnDillworth]

subs, subs, subs. much greater danger than the KB

[ny59giants]

subs, subs, subs. much greater danger than the KB

Agree!! Where are all your 18 plane FP groups?? I would be moving them forward to do ASW work at some of these bases.

[JohnDillworth]

Agree!! Where are all your 18 plane FP groups?? I would be moving them forward to do ASW work at some of these bases.

all the CVE's should be doing TBF search and ASW at low altitude and short range. Dan , you get dozens and dozens of DE's in the next month couple of months. more than enough to start creating hunter killer groups. Right now subs are a much bigger threat than the KB. Got extra Catalina? low altitude ASW. Find em and kill em

[Canoerebel]

Relax. Why are you assuming these things haven't been done?

Most of the CVE TBFs are flying only ASW duty along with a few other squadrons of various types. I'm getting decent detection on these subs and there have been numerous ASW attacks the past two turns. I think one sub was hit pretty hard today.

John will flood the zone with subs, so there is danger.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Relax. Why are you assuming these things haven't been done?

It's the looming bulk of the cold steel beasts and the ephemeral and ghostly susurration when heard on sonar. It makes everyone jumpy

[Canoerebel]

It's the eldritch threnody as a Force 7 gale passes through the rigging of the old four stackers, ululating ungraciously 'midst the hale men of Ol' Alabamy.

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's the eldritch threnody as a Force 7 gale passes through the rigging of the old four stackers, ululating ungraciously 'midst the hale men of Ol' Alabamy.

Those are definitely shades of deep purple (sorry, couldn't resist the opportunity of referencing an early album by my favorite band).

As for the KB holding around Aitape, I think that is the IJN protecting inbound shipping from the possibility of marauding by the Death Star or SCTF. I think it is a sign he has LCU reinforcements arriving there that need cover.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, I agree that he seems to be protecting his own shipping.

One of the challenges all of us face in AE is trying to put ourselves in the shoes of our opponents rather than over emphasizing our own worst fears as to what the enemy might do. John is dealing with his own concerns, limitations (fuel?) and perceptions of opportunity.

My biggest concern has been that he would be desperate (or bold) enough to send KB racing into the Big Tent AOO. While he might not win the clash, there is a chance he could. But most definitely that would impact my ability to attend to my new bases and ensure the important ones can withstand a strong counterattack in the near term.

But what is John thinking? His AAR posts and force disposition suggest that he does not yet realize (or consider) Big Tent as isolating and rendering almost irrelevant his more forward positions. I think he does look at Big Tent as the wagon train surrounded by hostiles.

So is he building up bases like Aitape to cut off the wagon train? Does he counterinvade Wake and Midway? I know in the early stages he focused on Biak..and I think that's still a priority for him.

He made a big deal of predicting that the invasion was aimed at Biak, Manikwari and Sorong. Does the expansion to Morotai and now towards Ceram affect his view and make him more anxious? I thought so and expected him to deploy KB ASAP, and perhaps he will.

There is great danger out there for both of us, but especially me early in these confined spaces close to enemy bases. But I do think this campaign is won or lost early. Each day KB dawdles is a dagger in John's hopes, to my way of thinking.

[BBfanboy]

You were able to interdict his landings at Ambon three days in a row? To me that says he expected you to go NW toward Manado rather than hook southwest into the eastern DEI. He does not yet realize that you can make a corridor back to Oz, and move your thundering herd out of range of KB. New Guinea makes a nice bulwark!

If you can get Ternate and Ambon you will have nicely isolated their islands from uncontested landings and I doubt he has the wherewithal to put together invasions any time soon. Steam on, errant knight!

[Canoerebel]

I probably won't be going for Ternate - at least in the near or medium term. John had it garrisoned already and had two divisions heading there a week ago, though both of them have since been diverted. But he has lots of air there and clearly that's central to his thoughts. I perceive most of my time being spent attending to what I have and eventually getting my carriers replenished before I can go venturing into Japanese-controlled waters. That will give him weeks to reinforce Ternate.

Is that a bad thing? I don't think so. The Big Tent challenge was/is to take a lot but not too much - to take and build enough bases to really hurt Japan, but not to overextend and end up frittering away my advantage through dilution.

If I can hold and build Manikwari, Morotai, Sorong, Boela, Babo, Taberfane (and/or Dabo and/or Saullauki) and then possibly add Namlea/Ambon and Horn Island/Port Moresby, that is defensible and, I think, pretty devastating to John.

I'm not in a position to go after Kendari, Ternate, Manado, Davao. Eventually it may happen, or perhaps I pick up all my ships and go somewhere easier.

I'm my "Shattered Vow" game with Miller back in '09-'10, I was in exactly the same place in late November 1943 - trying to take Ambon. I'd come the hard way, though, and repeatedly beat my head against his bulwarks. Eventually I tired of it, created a new amphibious armada, sailed into the South China Sea, and invaded China.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's the eldritch threnody as a Force 7 gale passes through the rigging of the old four stackers, ululating ungraciously 'midst the hale men of Ol' Alabamy.

I've only heard "ululating" to mean that wailing some Islamic women do to express deep sorrow, as when a child dies. May be there in other cultures, but I've seen it in video from the Middle East.

Always thought it came from use of the uvula. (Look it up if needed. [:)])

I guess ululating means rapid frequency shifts?