FITE Chambers vs Fulkerson

[larryfulkerson]

Here's an updated loss chart showing the Axis losses in HRS's. As you can see I'm loosing about 1100 HRS's per turn and the number on hand is barely enough to hold the front lines. It won't be long before huge gaps start showing in the front lines where Curt will be punching holes and pushing my dudes back.

[larryfulkerson]

Here's the updated movie showing the differences between the positions on turn 220 and turn 229. There is a slow steady compression of the front lines. What you can't see from this movie is the condition of the front line Axis troops. They are tired and down to 1/2 strength and I'm not sure they can take much more. It's not going to be pretty when the gaps start appearing in the lines.

[Da_Huge_D]

Could you post some close up shots? [8D]

[larryfulkerson]

How about I post some close-ups? Anybody want to see some close-ups? Did somebody say close-ups? I'm going to start at the northern coast and work around clockwise in a series of shots so you guys can cut and paste and put them together to see what the whole thing looks like. Here's the first shot:

[larryfulkerson]

Here's the second shot. This is before very much has moved during my turn 231. I've just disembarked all the guys that were embarked on the railroad but haven't moved very much so far.

[larryfulkerson]

Here's the third shot going clockwise: [ there are going to be eight shots total]

[larryfulkerson]

Here's shot number 4:

[larryfulkerson]

And here's shot number 5:

[larryfulkerson]

Here's shot number 6:

[larryfulkerson]

Here's shot number 7:

[larryfulkerson]

Oops....I forgot to take shot number 8. It's just about three hexes wide at the southwest corner of the front lines and you're not missing much. Meanwhile Curt tried to execute an invasion during his turn 230 and he didn't quite get ashore so now I have some cleanup to do. I plan to attack his ship-borne troops with my ships and the airborne troops that he dropped with my paratroops using ship's guns as arty. Maybe I can clean-up this without too much trouble. I'll give you guys a full report on the results of my attacks.

[larryfulkerson]

Here's the differences between the front lines in turns 220 and 233. You can see how the Soviets have pushed the lines inward and especially the southwest part has been pushed northward. I expect Curt to make a breakthrough any turn now and then it's the beginning of the end. My dudes are tired, down to about 1/2 strength and don't have much fight left in them.

[larryfulkerson]

Here's a picture of the breakthroughs that the Soviets made in turn 235 as it looks like to the Axis side at the beginning of Axis turn 236. There are at least three places where there have been serious breaches of the Axis line: the western edge, the southern edge and the northwest edge. I will post a close-up picture of those three areas to give you a better idea of what they look like.

[larryfulkerson]

Here's a picture of the western edge breakthrough. It's the only place where I think maybe the Axis can block the hole(s) ( temperarily ).

[larryfulkerson]

Here's a picture of the southern edge hole. I'm not at all sure that the Axis forces can block this hole meaningfully. This rip through the lines is permanent I'm afraid. I expect the winter '43 mud season to start approx. in turn 240 and the Soviets probably can't capture Berlin in the four or five turns that are left from now until then so I'm thinking that I might, I say might, be able to pull back everybody that can move and build another series of front lines around Berlin. I have no hopes of holding out very long after that.

[larryfulkerson]

Here's a picture of the northwest edge breech. This hole too, is probably permanent. I haven't started moving very many Axis units yet but as you can see, there aren't many that could be moved that would help out very much. Fortunately, this section of the front lines is furtherest from Berlin and there is lots of room to fall back here. That's my intention for these folks. Curt's aim for this section of front lines is to, probably, isolate these Axis units by surrounding them and letting them wither on the vine, or maybe destroying them in place. Either way they are doomed if I can't pull them back far enough to avoid being surrounded where I can't use them after the winter '43 mud season ends.

[larryfulkerson]

Here is a big part of the reason why the breeches are being seen already: The number of HRS's is very low and decreasing at an increasing rate. That is, I have less HRS's now than ever and I'm loosing them faster than I ever have before. This is the start of the end of this game I guess.

[Veer]

RETREAT TO THE ODER! RUN LIKE THE WIND!

Wow... that's about 50% of your HSR's destroyed in 20 turns or so.

[LLv34_Snefens]

That is a tricky one. One thing is sure. You can't afford any more withdrawals south of Berlin.
IF you make it to the cease-fire I would only pull all the way back to the Oder (red line) if you really don't have any units to form a line, or he is within 5-10 hexes from Berlin from the south anyway.

The light green line gives good fortified positions up north, but will have it's south eastern corner need to run through op land.
Dark green line is behind river, but I still think it will be a waste to try to defend so far east if he is close to Berlin from south anyway.
Yellow is my personal favorite. It might not have the best terrain (mostly just rivers), but it is short and has two obvious fall back lines (orange and red) before Berlin.

[larryfulkerson]

Here's the final positions of the Axis units at the end of turn 236. By some miracle I managed to cover all the holes in the lines....but most of the units are mearly tired low-strength roadbumps. Curt will have no problemo pushing them out of the way in his turn. Which means that I'll have more holes to try to plug in turn 237 when it's my turn to move again.

I think you guys for all your suggestions, but I have no illusions that this is the end of the line for this game. I was thinking of just giving the game to Curt and ending it.....but that would mean he would have no joy in taking Berlin. I couldn't do that to a fellow Vietnam vet. Getting spit on at the airport was all the dissappointment needed for one lifetime.

So this game is going all the way to the end.