Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

9/4/44

Battle of Shikuka: A colorful, messy, confusing map.

[jwolf]

Kudos to both of you for a thrilling game here. Erik is doing exactly the opposite of your previous opponent, deducing rightly IMHO that this is the time for all forces to be committed. I'm anxious to see your carriers return, as no doubt all your e-troops on Sakhalin are as well. Good luck!

[BBfanboy]

From that picture I'm guessing the CVE TF at Ominato is replenishing aircraft and maybe pilots.

I take the CVs south of Etorofu to be in a safe blocking position where your CVs or SCTFs should not be able to surprise them and subs are not so plentiful. At the same time it can sprint E or NE to intercept your merchant TFs if they flee.

Seems like overall he is re-gathering his strength for another run at Shikuka, or preparing to escort troops to Toyohara.

Are you sure about that CD unit on the little island E of PJ? In stock there is no base there and your map does not show even a dot there?

[Canoerebel]

I don't see Eric invading in the short-term. I have 2,300 AV at Toyohara behind 7 forts in wooded terrain. I have 9,000 AV on Shikuka behind 8 forts in clear terrain.

He doesn't know exactly how much I have, but he can make some good deductions.

The only way he could counterinvade would be to destroy supply and have unfettered access to bombard for a long time. He's not there yet, and my carriers will be ready before he could really take meaningful steps to that end.

Perhaps I'm misreading things, as I've done before, but I don't foresee him doing that unless he's able to neutralize the threat posed by my carriers.

[witpqs]

I take the CVs south of Etorofu to be in a safe blocking position where your CVs or SCTFs should not be able to surprise them and subs are not so plentiful. At the same time it can sprint E or NE to intercept your merchant TFs if they flee.

They are expecting a flock of egress but there are no more egress! [:D]

[Canoerebel]

9/5/44

Battle of Shikuka: After four days of mayhem and carnage, today was remarkably quiet. Allied ships sink a bunch of MTBs and enemy fighters down a fair number of Allied fighters, but suddenly the "radar screen" shows no enemy activity threatening Shikuka.

It was a taut, low-scoring game. Where are the enemy big boys?

[Canoerebel]

9/5/44

CVE Upgrades: Can they finish in time to lend a hand?

[Reg]

I am picturing the Harbour Master trying to arrange fifty pier side upgrades (that's a lot of dock space....) with the CiC yelling at him over the phone wanting his boats back........ [X(] [:D]

[Canoerebel]

The situation with, and timing of, the CVE upgrades is remarkable. Newcomers may wonder, "What the heck? Why put them all into upgrades at the same time?" That's what Ross was getting at a page or so back.

But it actually made sense to get them into the yards as soon as possible so that I could get them out as soon as possible. Four damaged CVs were in various yards, three of which would be repaired on or around September 20. Another reinforcing CV would arrive from Balboa at about the same time. I had previously decided Death Star wouldn't go into action until those four additional CVs were available. So it made sense to get all the CVEs upgraded at once. Then, voila!, both CVs and CVEs would be ready at the same time.

I think these upgrades double AA for each ship by 400 points or so - an aggregate of some 20,000 AA points. Since I forsaw the possibility of Death Star taking on KB supplemented by massed LBA at and around the Kuriles, this seemed essential. And Erik hadn't shown any indication of attacking in the past three months. If he attacked in a week or two or three, all the better to get those upgrades behind me.

But he attacked the very day they went into the shipyards.

[witpqs]

There are so many variables it's always easy to second guess those upgrades, but they are massive, critical upgrades for the CVE's and should make a big difference.

[Canoerebel]

9/6/44

Battle of Shikuka: Totally quiet day; no enemy air, sub or naval attacks. A day for the Allied air force fighters to come back online, recovering from that bombardment on the 1st. I'm pulling each bomber that comes online out.

Whither Erik? He's got me by the short hairs; he was just a hair from overwhelming my defenses; we both took heavy losses; the kindest, most helpful thing he could do to me is call the op off. He's not given to kindness to his enemy, nor of pulling his foot off the gas peddle. He'll be coming back with everything.

There is a chance, though, that he took enough damage that he doesn't want to lose more. That's my fondest hope.

But the days remaining until the CVEs complete their upgrades is dwindling - slowly but steadily.

Having the Allied carriers on scene won't guarantee anything. In the first place, Erik has plenty of LBA and I've lost alot of the 4EB I was counting on to suppress them. In the second, getting Death Star into the Sea of Okhtosk will require alot of thought and some risk - narrow passages, mines, subs, shore guns, combat ships, etc. I think I have a handle on how to deal with that. And I think the number of subs, DDs, CLs, and riff-raff that Eric lost means something in that particular equation.

[Canoerebel]

9/6/44

Accidental War: Erik dropped some shore guns on this nameless, faceless island. Is it Japanese territory, as I assumed...or not? If it's Japanese territory, why did landing guns on his own island trigger messages in the Combat Report?

[BillBrown]

That island is country code 100, so it is Japanese, not Soviet. The guns should fire at TFs passing through the hex. I don't know why you got
messages in your combat Report, probably because there is no base there.

Since there is a rail line between Toyohara and Shikuka I would guess he was trying to sever it so you could not rail your damaged aircraft
from Shikuka to Toyohara. You could not move them so they had to endure a second day of possible Naval Bombardment.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Bill, for the country code info.

Regarding the SHikuka to Toyohara line, that was my first guess (railing aircraft). But he's still paying the space attention, making me wonder if he didn't have bigger plans. Landing a detachment would've severed overland supply flow would make Toyohara much more vulnerable.

[BillBrown]

I assume that when you say he is paying attention that you are seeing Recon aircraft over those hexes. He could be like some of us and forgets to re-purpose them, or
he has no other place to sent them and they gain experience reconing a non CAPed hex.

[Canoerebel]

On the turn of the 5th, he had Zero fighters ground attack two of the hexes. It's possible that he hoped to draw and shoot down LRCAP, but it seems more likely that he was trying to identify the units via Combat Report.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/4/44

RO-110: He's losing a lot of subs, mostly to mines but also some to ASW TFs, plus a couple to USN sub attacks.

I think Erik still has a ton of subs left, but this battle is reducing the muster roll in a measurable way. Erik is very good with subs vs. combat ships and carriers, so the attrition may prove useful later.

It's only been a little over a week in my game with him, but he's being very aggressive with the USN subs in that game, too. It would just seem to be his style (throwing all assets into the fray). Hopefully the ASW air umbrella is making them unhappy.

For the IJN, there aren't actually that many subs. At least as far as capable subs are concerned. Many of the late-war builds have smaller and fewer torpedoes, as well as crappy range (and I think terrible fuel economy).

[Lokasenna]

Landings at non-base hexes always trigger something (usually very embarrassing) in the combat report.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the info, gents. I always read what you guys write.

[Canoerebel]

9/7/44

NoPac: A post of a non-annotated map, just for the sake of clarity. An annotated map to follow in the next post.