OT: Corona virus

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: fcooke

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy



Just called my mortgage broker yesterday after receiving her 'remember us?' card in the mail. Nationally, business is gangbusters for mortgage companies-about 85% of it is refinancing operations. The Spring market is actually strong in areas that are allowing 'house hunters', so that's a positive too.

I think that the rationale for mortgage interest deduction on one's taxes has abated in the last three years. The standard deduction is usually higher for couples filing married (joint) than mortgage interest. Combined with SALT caps for high-tax states (e.g., New York, Mass, NJ, CA), this augurs against the value of property for tax deductibility more recently.

Fair enough. I was doing volunteer tax returns as part of the AARP program this year before we got shut down. The newer 'higher deduction' helps many people but the elimination of a bunch of legacy deductions hurts a few. All that said, if you can borrow at 3ish% there could be decent returns in other areas - not fixed income or annuities IMO. Real estate up here seems to be getting stronger as NYC folk are thinking they don't want to live in the petri dish.

The other thing I learned as a tax volunteer is that the tax code is even more screwed up than I thought beforehand.....

Charitable donations still work well.....so if you are so inclined you may want to give earlier this year - a bunch of those organizations are really hurting.

The mortgage interest deduction was to encourage people to purchase their own home. For some people that makes sense but for others it does not.

I noted before that I don't bother to file income taxes. But yes, I will give to charities and help others directly. Especially young boys and girls with candy and toys. No, this phat man will not wear a red suit.

All of those deductions are for special interests, eliminate most of those and a lot of lawyers and accountants will have to find real work. Business executives will have to learn to run a business instead of milking the tax code. Those things do not sound like a bad idea.

You can now claim up to $300 charitable donation even if you take the standard deduction, thanks to the CARES Act.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Alfred


Heard on the radio today an economics reporter sate that March year on year sales of new automobiles fell 90% in France and 98% in Italy. Those two countries experience will not be friendless.

Alfred

There was a similar chart for Chinese auto sales in December/January that showed sales basically falling off a cliff.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The press and those medically and/or politically opposed to re-opening predicted surges in new cases and morality when shelter-in-place ended in some states. But the Ro rates remain level or close thereto, including: Colorado, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Montana, Mississippi, Kansas and Idaho (source: https://rt.live/). The rates in each of those states is below 1.0, meaning the pandemic continues to decline. It's possible that the wheels may come off here or there, but to this point sky-is-falling assertions have been wrong.

It hasn't been a disaster, no.

But the jump in IHME modeled fatalities (up another 10k today, to 147k by August 4th) is a direct result of the easing of countermeasures.

On the very day that the first gaggle of states announced they were going to end their lockdowns early, the IHME updated their numbers - from ~70K to >100K. That's a pretty big effect. We'll pass 100K confirmed dead in about another week.

But aren't you presuming that that 'big effect' on predicted (and actual) numbers is from the ending of state lockdowns early? That hasn't really been the case. Mortality in the last two weeks has been the 'usual suspects' (MI, NY, NJ, MA) and a smattering of other states backfilling in the difference. You haven't got that 30,000 from Texas or Georgia or Montana or other states reopening earlier than others.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'll start looking now, but it shouldn't take long. The press isn't into owning up. [:)]

That's not fair.[:)] Meet the Press admitted their hatchet job last weekend. Still waiting for 60 Minutes to admit to their hatchet job.

For those not aware of what transpired, both deliberately edited out full answers provided by the Foreign Secretary and the A-G. The edited "answer" broadcast was one which allowed cheap shots at the integrity of the officials.

Alfred

I agree.

The big outlets do frequently own up to mistakes - they care about maintaining their credibility, or what they see as their credibility.

It is very common to see notations about edits/corrections, as well as what it said before, at the bottom of news stories and columns in the NYT, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, LA Times, Financial Times, and so forth.

Bigger, more respectable magazine outlets like The Atlantic also practiced this (back when I actually visited their site), so I would expect that all one would have to do to check up on an edit or correction (or retraction) would be to go to the original story's URL and look for the notation. If they made one, it will be on that page.

Alternatively, you could compare the present version of the story on the URL with a cached version on Google or archives.org (if it is there).


Edit: it's worth noting that every outlet I mentioned above is print, while those that are being maligned for not correcting stories are video. Video news is far less likely to admit a retraction, if only because doing so would take time away from their real-time "reporting" on future updates.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: fcooke


Fair enough. I was doing volunteer tax returns as part of the AARP program this year before we got shut down. The newer 'higher deduction' helps many people but the elimination of a bunch of legacy deductions hurts a few. All that said, if you can borrow at 3ish% there could be decent returns in other areas - not fixed income or annuities IMO. Real estate up here seems to be getting stronger as NYC folk are thinking they don't want to live in the petri dish.

The other thing I learned as a tax volunteer is that the tax code is even more screwed up than I thought beforehand.....

Charitable donations still work well.....so if you are so inclined you may want to give earlier this year - a bunch of those organizations are really hurting.

The mortgage interest deduction was to encourage people to purchase their own home. For some people that makes sense but for others it does not.

I noted before that I don't bother to file income taxes. But yes, I will give to charities and help others directly. Especially young boys and girls with candy and toys. No, this phat man will not wear a red suit.

All of those deductions are for special interests, eliminate most of those and a lot of lawyers and accountants will have to find real work. Business executives will have to learn to run a business instead of milking the tax code. Those things do not sound like a bad idea.

You can now claim up to $300 charitable donation even if you take the standard deduction, thanks to the CARES Act.

Good to know. I had scaled back my cash charitable contributions of late since they were no longer deductible for me.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

This tactic is really go viral across the United States, I hear even states are adopting it.

Portland Public Schools plans to furlough teachers, principals, other staffers 1 day a week -- but they’d make more money not less

https://www.oregonlive.com/education/20 ... -less.html

I think that the program should be modified to stop this.

Also, will they have a reduced workload or will they be expected to have the same work output.

Well, their outputs don't really change (it's not like 20% of the curriculum is being chopped off) - but they have to work 4 days instead of 5, so either they're unofficially working on a 5th day or they have to get more done in the 4 days that they are working.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Alfred


Heard on the radio today an economics reporter sate that March year on year sales of new automobiles fell 90% in France and 98% in Italy. Those two countries experience will not be friendless.

Alfred

There was a similar chart for Chinese auto sales in December/January that showed sales basically falling off a cliff.

I think I remember reading that figures for American manufacturers were >48% drop YOY. Not as crazy as Italy, but certainly sizable and probably not sustainable for the industry's long-term health.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The press and those medically and/or politically opposed to re-opening predicted surges in new cases and morality when shelter-in-place ended in some states. But the Ro rates remain level or close thereto, including: Colorado, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Montana, Mississippi, Kansas and Idaho (source: https://rt.live/). The rates in each of those states is below 1.0, meaning the pandemic continues to decline. It's possible that the wheels may come off here or there, but to this point sky-is-falling assertions have been wrong.

It hasn't been a disaster, no.

But the jump in IHME modeled fatalities (up another 10k today, to 147k by August 4th) is a direct result of the easing of countermeasures.

On the very day that the first gaggle of states announced they were going to end their lockdowns early, the IHME updated their numbers - from ~70K to >100K. That's a pretty big effect. We'll pass 100K confirmed dead in about another week.

But aren't you presuming that that 'big effect' on predicted (and actual) numbers is from the ending of state lockdowns early? That hasn't really been the case. Mortality in the last two weeks has been the 'usual suspects' (MI, NY, NJ, MA) and a smattering of other states backfilling in the difference. You haven't got that 30,000 from Texas or Georgia or Montana or other states reopening earlier than others.

Well, I can't time travel back to the day of the widening of the error bars and the jump in projected fatalities. I didn't have time then to dig more into it, and I wasn't planning to prepare an argument on it with evidence, so all I can do is note that the jump in projected fatalities occurred in the very next update after the governors announced a loosening of restrictions.

I agree with the observation that in the last couple of weeks the deaths are largely driven by big states and a couple of others.

It's worth noting that it's worth looking at the US-minus-NY if we want an idea of what is going on in the country as a whole, but there are few charts out there for that. I only saw one, and I think the person whose page I saw it on put it together on their own in Excel. That was more than a week ago, but NY still had a pronounced curve shape at that time for daily deaths. The US-minus-NY numbers showed a curve that was still increasing.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe




The mortgage interest deduction was to encourage people to purchase their own home. For some people that makes sense but for others it does not.

I noted before that I don't bother to file income taxes. But yes, I will give to charities and help others directly. Especially young boys and girls with candy and toys. No, this phat man will not wear a red suit.

All of those deductions are for special interests, eliminate most of those and a lot of lawyers and accountants will have to find real work. Business executives will have to learn to run a business instead of milking the tax code. Those things do not sound like a bad idea.

You can now claim up to $300 charitable donation even if you take the standard deduction, thanks to the CARES Act.

Good to know. I had scaled back my cash charitable contributions of late since they were no longer deductible for me.

Here's a citation: https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia ... s-act.html

[Canoerebel]

Lokasenna, we must be looking at different charts and information.

The IHME increase was yesterday. Georgia's projected toll dropped from 3,500 to 2,000 (and one day earlier it was at 4,900). Clearly, IHME doesn't foresee problems with the easing in Georgia. Ditto many other states, but not all.

As for the RT rates, there's nothing on any of the charts I see indicating a margin of error for Ro at or above 1.0 for Georgia. We must be looking at different charts.

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The press and those medically and/or politically opposed to re-opening predicted surges in new cases and morality when shelter-in-place ended in some states. But the Ro rates remain level or close thereto, including: Colorado, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Montana, Mississippi, Kansas and Idaho (source: https://rt.live/). The rates in each of those states is below 1.0, meaning the pandemic continues to decline. It's possible that the wheels may come off here or there, but to this point sky-is-falling assertions have been wrong.

It hasn't been a disaster, no.

But the jump in IHME modeled fatalities (up another 10k today, to 147k by August 4th) is a direct result of the easing of countermeasures.

On the very day that the first gaggle of states announced they were going to end their lockdowns early, the IHME updated their numbers - from ~70K to >100K. That's a pretty big effect. We'll pass 100K confirmed dead in about another week.

[fcooke]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna




You can now claim up to $300 charitable donation even if you take the standard deduction, thanks to the CARES Act.

Good to know. I had scaled back my cash charitable contributions of late since they were no longer deductible for me.

Here's a citation: https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia ... s-act.html

And if you don't like paying taxes, using appreciated stock (if you have it), means you don't pay taxes on the gain if you donate it to charity but get the full value of the donation on your tax write-off. And most financial firms won't charge you a penny for the transfer to the charity

[Canoerebel]

Regarding yesterday's revision to IHME projections for mortality, much of the increase that bumped US mortality to 147k came from New Jersey, where the projection is now 14.5k deaths.

[RangerJoe]

Related to this situation, bewware when you are day trading:

He started the day with $77,000 — by midnight, he owed $9 million
Published: May 11, 2020

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he-st ... ARKETWATCH

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Today is a milestone date for my state. Georgia began easing countermeasures 19 days ago, to much fanfare and criticism. Then, 14 days ago, the governor allowed many other restrictions, including shelter in place, to expire. Local and national media predicted terrible things, as typified by that Atlantic headline "Georgia begins Experiment in Human Sacrifice." John Dillworth noted (correctly) that Georgia was effectively serving as a bellwether for the rest of the country.

So far, so good. Numbers have been trending positive for a month and continue to do so. None of the calamities predicted by the press or the political opponents. Lots of things remain closed, including those who have the option of re-opening, but many people are back to work and things are ramping up gradually, which seems like a sensible way to do it. All medical systems have plenty of capacity to handle the occasional hotspots (there has been one - in Hall County, reportedly tied to a poultry-processing facility).

Indeed, things look promising. I've heard anecdotal evidence that while business are open, attendance at some restaurants was down considerably from mothers day last year. I've been unable to get any evidence either way. Not trying to make any point but Georgia has been hit harder than most on the lost jobs front. Don't know why Georgia lost so many jobs so fast. Anyway, see if you can find any info on actual attendance at places. I also understand bars are still closed. That seems wise because as soon as they opened them in Korea and Germany that is where the spikes were. Easy for us non-drinkers to say stuff like that I suppose but I understand that our fellow forum participants might modestly partake from time to time [:)]

Bars are also a place where people like to socialize, play darts, pool, and do other things.

The problem that I see is if a 60% alcohol solution is enough to kill the corona virus, how can a person consume that much?

60% would be 120 Proof. Very few beverages sold with that high an alcohol content. Moonshine might get there but most commercial distilleries want their patrons to consume more instead of going blotto on drink 3.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

A California county telling Tesla they can't open an assembly line is exactly the kind of idiocy that WILL bring on a 1930's style disaster.

They didn't tell Tesla they could not open, they gave them a set of conditions for opening and asked Tesla how they would be meeting them. Musk chose to ignore that and reopen.

[Lowpe]

In major reversal, Wolf administration says Pa. will begin weekly testing of nursing home residents, employees

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/05/i ... oyees.html

Many thumbs up to Spotlight PA journalists.[:)]

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

BROADWAY WON’T REOPEN IN 2020. NOR WILL THE MET

https://slippedisc.com/2020/05/broadway ... l-the-met/

Thats me. NYC Ballet and the Philharmonic will not happen until at least the Fall. The Ballet was always my wifes birthday present. Now I got a week to figure something out. Not good. A long time ago Leonard Bernstein used to rehearse the Philharmonic Friday mornings and allow college students in for $4. Best education I ever got

[RangerJoe]

Why Meatpacking Plants Have Become Covid-19 Hot Spots
Frigid temperatures, cramped conditions, and long hours put meat processing workers at higher risk for contracting the novel coronavirus.

https://www.wired.com/story/why-meatpac ... y-uplift-1

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'll start looking now, but it shouldn't take long. The press isn't into owning up. [:)]

That's not fair.[:)] Meet the Press admitted their hatchet job last weekend. Still waiting for 60 Minutes to admit to their hatchet job.

For those not aware of what transpired, both deliberately edited out full answers provided by the Foreign Secretary and the A-G. The edited "answer" broadcast was one which allowed cheap shots at the integrity of the officials.

Alfred

Basically, (unless I got this backward) NBC blamed CBS. Said they used a quote from the other network without checking for themselves, which is 1) hardly complimentary, and 2) we know they have all been doing for a long time.

[Lowpe]

Wisconsin Supreme Court strikes down Tony Evers' stay-at-home order that closed businesses, schools to limit spread of coronavirus


https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/pol ... 179205002/

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel