The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: witpqs


You might think twice about bombing that army stack until it is closer. Make it harder for his fighters (further from their bases).

Yes, actually i was exactly thinking about that...however that stack there is really calling for a carpet bombing[:D]
Anyway, now i'm really curious to see which will be Rader's timing.
The intel says that he's bringing all his forces that conquered Manila to Singapore...that means he's sending 4000 more AVs to India...will he wait for them or he will cross the LOD before their arrival?
Will Rader wait to completely destroy my Indian Air Force or will he cross the LOD even if i still have nails and fangs?
The presence of that Army stack left alone far away from its precious AAs may mean he won't wait any longer...i hope he doesn't wait...if i get those 144 spits and hurris now i'm pretty sure i can contest the air supremacy during the summer

[Rapunzel]

Very good and entertaining AAR. Keep up the good work. Time is on your side.

[GreyJoy]

July 25,26 1942

Another 2 days of violent and horrible air battles. Rader doesn't give up and sends wave after wave against the bastions of Karachi.
Today losses are 134 against 280 with a slaughter of Kates from the KB...
Lost 28 more pilots today but again the problem remains the one connected to A/C pools. I'm down to 200 fighters now. The more i think of it the more i hope Rader crosses the LOD. Those 140 planes could rapresent my salvation cause, in the meanwhile, i'll start producing 65 more P-40Ks and 40 P-38Gs per month...and those guys could really save my butt!

The KB should be now really really harmed in terms of pilots and planes. Think about prepping an ambush for the allmighty KB[;)]

Anyway...today Rader sent in again the best he could efford. 10 high altitude sweeps of A6M3a, followed by a wave of bombers lead by 180 Oscars...Rader said he's surprised by the numbers of fighters i still have operative...but he probably doesn't know how bad my pool situation is...
however the KB sent sweeps and naval attacks against my ships docked at Karachi...the bombers got really mauled despite the escort did a good job in shooting down my CAP fighters...and finally my Flak started to hit something...4 helens shot down today over Karachi...UH-AH!

In two days all my US CVs will be operative again, then i'll have to take a decision about how to use them

[jeffk3510]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

July 25,26 1942

Another 2 days of violent and horrible air battles. Rader doesn't give up and sends wave after wave against the bastions of Karachi.
Today losses are 134 against 280 with a slaughter of Kates from the KB...
Lost 28 more pilots today but again the problem remains the one connected to A/C pools. I'm down to 200 fighters now. The more i think of it the more i hope Rader crosses the LOD. Those 140 planes could rapresent my salvation cause, in the meanwhile, i'll start producing 65 more P-40Ks and 40 P-38Gs per month...and those guys could really save my butt!

The KB should be now really really harmed in terms of pilots and planes. Think about prepping an ambush for the allmighty KB[;)]
Anyway...today Rader sent in again the best he could efford. 10 high altitude sweeps of A6M3a, followed by a wave of bombers lead by 180 Oscars...Rader said he's surprised by the numbers of fighters i still have operative...but he probably doesn't know how bad my pool situation is...
however the KB sent sweeps and naval attacks against my ships docked at Karachi...the bombers got really mauled despite the escort did a good job in shooting down my CAP fighters...and finally my Flak started to hit something...4 helens shot down today over Karachi...UH-AH!

In two days all my US CVs will be operative again, then i'll have to take a decision about how to use them

How do you plan on ambushing them?

[Andy Mac]

Make sure your AA units are in combat mode for max Flak damage.

Looks like he has bled KB dry - weird - could this be a double bluff and go for Autovictory by hitting somewhere like Oz or New Zealand ?? Just seems strange that he would give you this much time to fort up

6,000 in an urban hex with lvl 9 forts is a tough nut to crack

Doable yes but its very tough and he is suffering a lot

[Nemo121]

Don't forget though that Greyjoy has penny-packeted out his force. So Rader may well be betting he can isolate it and prevent that 6,000 AV forming up in Karachi - given how this has gone so far he's probably right.

[GreyJoy]

Jeff, if he remains there i could send my RN CVs to engage them, hoping the KB will react and get closer to Karachi so that, with the LBA torpedo bombers and fighters i think i could hurt the tiny CAP shield that is left over the Kb after the slaughters of the last days...
 
Andy, yes, all my AAs have always been on combat mode. The results of the brit heavy AA are nevertheless amazingly horrible, even when the AA units are massed in the same hex. Exactly the opposite that is happening with the jap AA that can slaughter a 60 B-17s formation flying at 22k feet...
 
A double bluff? well, if it's so i cannot imagine how can he plan to do that. I am pretty sure of the presence of his best units in india. My recon spotted 40 units massing at 44,19 and those are all first line elite combat units (10 tank regiments, all his guards regiments and several experienced artillery regiments)...No, i think he's going for Karachi.
 
Nemo, my disposition should (i hope) allow me to react and decide, after seeing which are his prime vectors, what to do (if dig in in Karachi or not).
It's sure that those 6 divisions will be very very helpfull in this process...

[GreyJoy]

Just for the records...at the 30th of May Allied had lost 1200 airframes, while japs 1500. Now, after 2 months of battles over Karachi, Allied total air losses are 2469 against 4109 japs...meaning that in less than 2 months i've lost nearly 1250 planes and Rader 2600[X(][X(]

[Andy Mac]

Oh I assumed the 6,000 was back at karachi prepping rapidly for that base is it all spread out in that case grey you need to consolidate pronto and you may need to ship those Divs to karachi if he can destroy you in detail or worse yet isolate and force surrenders thats a baaad thing

[Nemo121]

Andy,

It isn't worth saying. It has been said before ( by myself among others ). Greyjoy will say he hears, he'll even say he listens but his dispositions remain the same.

I don't think Greyjoy will win this one but I think Rader will lose it... just as I first said a few weeks ago.

[Andy Mac]

Well I take a look at the map on the previous page of the AAR and IMO I would scuttle back and considate the best thing that can happen from your POV is that Radar crosses the LOD and that you get your garrison set with a command HQ and good Corps HQ both with good leaders set and ready to defend at karachi fully prepped the only units forward deployed should be Armoured Car units that you dont mind losing to act as trip wires and to act as raidwers in his rear you get several fast moving AC Bns use them to screen your front and to raid deep cutting lines of comm and closing down railway lines.

Also if 50th Indian Para Bde is on map push that deep behind the lines for the same reason.

Small Bn sized forces wont be any good in the slugging match to come these and only these should be left behind to harass and defend with inflated unit counts and to get into his rear and cut railway lines and take bases back once he is set.

Also Indpt Inf Bns everything Bde or higher should be consolidating as fast as you can on the Karachi front.

[Andy Mac]

based on map below I would have small Bn sized anti para units in every base on a rail line to slow down the "para sieze rail head and then strat move in the army" move so scatter c 500 AV of Bn sized units all over the place but everything else should be back in karachi with maybe a couple of armoured Bdes at Hyderabad screened by a couple of AC Bns basically withthe intention of running for karachi as soon as he gets close

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

.

[Andy Mac]

ps I would be seriosly wary of a coup de main straight at Karachi by sea thats the only reason for KB getting involved that makes marginal sense right now.

Thats a damned slow route he has chosen for his main Line of Advance - suspiciously slow........

Even armour will take weeks to cross that desert out of strat mode and strat mode cannot be used if you hold Hyderabad - thats a mix of Desert (fast) and Desert (Rough) VERY SLOW hexes this looks like a bluff to be

[witpqs]

Yeah, I also thought the 6,000 AV was already at Karachi. Greyjoy - Andy is giving you great, specific advice in those last few posts. The rest is up to you!

[Nemo121]

witpqs, Andy,
No, Greyjoy was very specific that he was penny-packeting his forces out in order for them to be defeated piecemeal. I've asked about it repeatedly ( as have some others ) but the dispositions remain.


This would, IMO, be the best route for the IJA to take:

1. Red = STrategic railing supported by para drops.
Small forces offshoot westward to take Delhi and other roads heading west in order to prevent Allied troops from cutting the LOCs.


2. Green = line of march ( not strategic movement ) which dislocates ALL Allied defences outside of Karachi and renders them useless. Without actually having to engage any of the defences Greyjoy has built up the Japanese can easily arrive in Karachi. It also forces the Allies to shock attack across a river to get back to Karachi - which will destroy them as a combat capable force ere they reach it.


As re: Rader. I truly don't think we need to worry too much about anything sneaky similar to what I've posted above/below. I think that the "hey diddle, diddle, right up the middle" approach we see is what we're getting. The indirect approach would negate positions which Rader will bypass but would negate them much more cheaply and keep more of his combat power available at the tip. I don't think he has done the right analysis here though so he won't see that. I think Greyjoy's analysis is even more spotty so it'll still work out reasonably well for Rader - although he hasn't the killer instinct needed to guarantee a victory here.

[String]

Hear what the gentlemen are saying here, get back to Karachi and dig in, losing the rest of the bases in India right now is pretty irrelevant.

[GreyJoy]

Guys, i think you didn't understand (or better: i didn't well explained) my plans. Karachi is already guarded by 3000 AVs (the bulk of my forces) fully prepped, so a landing directly there doesn't scare me a lot. The rest of my forces are at Hyderabad now, with only 500 AV light troops at Jodpur in order to negate him a paradrop. All the other indian bases are defended only by small BNs, like Andy suggested. Whatever he does i have plenty of time to decide when to retreat towards Karachi. In the meanwhile, keeping Hyderabad and Jodpur operative, i negate him the chance of grabbing large AFs for free and threat him with the presence of my bombers that can carpet his advancing troops.
 
...leter on i'll reply more deeply to your comments and suggestions.
In the meanwhile: thank you all

[obvert]

While it seems everyone is offering great advice here, and much of it is saying the same thing, it is important to realize that even a beginner should play their own game. It seems GJ is taking it in, and possibly making mistakes by not following it exactly, but this is how we learn. As a teacher by profession, I would encourage those giving the advice to keep doing so, (as all of us newer players and probably many vets will learn from it as well), but not to be too frustrated or impatient if it isn't put into practice exactly or right away.

This is his game. Analyze it for him, for you, for us, but let him play it.

While many were critical of GJ keeping many units past withdrawl dates earlier and accumulating negative PPs, the recent air advantage and ability to keep supply coming into Karachi has proven devastating to the IJA and even the IJN. This seems to have surprised everyone, and shows how a beginner can come up with something useful by NOT knowing what should be done.

[modrow]

GreyJoy,

there are one or two things that keep going round in my mind, even though a wise man may be in possession of intel/insight that may be suited to rule out my concerns...

You stated several times that KB's air wings must be hurt and it is his elite pilots that die. May I ask what positive intel you got that this is the case ?

You definitely know that waves of planes are taking off from KB's flight decks. It acts as an additional air base that can be moved to suitable positions.

But that does not necessarily mean anything - remember that a lot of groups are carrier capable (and that carrier capable groups may be trained to carrier trained).

In principle, KB's elite groups may be sitting somewhere in India and other groups fly from KB. As a matter of fact, the sustained attacks from KB in might indicate that rotation of groups is taking place.

Thus the elite may just have been rotated out/swapped against some more expendable assets and KB may be very quickly as deadly as it was before.

Even if you got positive ID that carrier squadrons are used, the elite pilots may have been moved to other daitais.

Do you see any indication of changing squadrons operating from KB ?

As always, just my 2cts.

Hartwig

[GreyJoy]

Have very little time to answer and to update the AAR...

however, 2 more turns and 4 more days have passed and things are turning bad again.

Rader sent 2 SCTF, composed each of 2CAs, 2 CLs and 4 DDs to smash my navy at Karachi. I had there 3 SCTFs composed each of 2 CLs and 4DDs. My admirals, despite being the best i could efford to buy, displayed, for unknown reasons, a strange behaviour moving in and out of Karachi hex during the night phase, ending 5 times "surprised" by the japanese Navy (despite the radar that every leading ship had...).
I've lost 2 CLs and 7 DDs against 1 CA and 2 DDs of his own...with more several ships damaged on both sides (mines, however, were the most badly damaged...)
Then, on during the morning phase, Rader attacked Hyderabad, hoping to find my 4Es that have moved away the day before... he went in for nothing and that lasted two days...so i could breath for two days at Karachi...

The KB in the meanwhile moved back to Bombay to refill and refuel.

The next turn Rader sent to Karachi only sweeps...and the results were again bad... 700 jap fighters engaged 200 allied ones and we lost 90 against 138...we're now close to 1-1...but, which is worse, our air defence is getting thinner and thinner every day.

The KB moved back north again and i'm sure this time will be the end for my Indian Air Army. I'll have to wait for him to cross the LOD before having again a decent air cover...and in the meanwhile he'll be able to smash everything and burn my supplies.

We're now at July 31 1942...so August is beginning...will be a damned bloody and tough summer...


Hope to have time during the day to update in detail and to reply to the usefull and proficient comments you all made (of which, i anticipate, i'm really gratefull about)

Thanks

GJ