OT: Corona virus

[Canoerebel]

Congratulations, Eric. How does Miss V like being a sister?

ORIGINAL: obvert

Just a quick post on this OT event. Sebastian was born on May 11 at 21:53 in London. Everyone is now home and healthy, napping actually. [:)]

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Frightening thought. What of all the deferred Confessions for Catholics? There is going to be a serious backlog of sins to deal with. And what if you get hit by a truck while you are waiting? Can a Governor give you some kind of waiver like a no eviction order until July or something?

Just get a dispensation from the bish. Wasn't a big deal during the black death, won't be a big deal now.

ORIGINAL: obvert

Just a quick post on this OT event. Sebastian was born on May 11 at 21:53 in London. Everyone is now home and healthy, napping actually. [:)]

Congrats!

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

These are the questions that need answering I think. I tend to think it is a combination of factors, but then which of those factors is most meaningful? For example CR mentions density:

Interestingly, Seoul's population density is almost twice that of New York City, four times higher than Los Angeles and eight times higher than the density of Rome.

I was just reading abut this in the article posted about the meat-packing industry from WIRED.

It is more about density of living situation, transport and specific workplace. So a construction worker who is outside, lives alone, rides a bike to work or drives a car is much less likely to catch or pass the virus than a guy who works inside, rides the tube or a bus to work and lives with his entire extended family in a two bedroom flat. It was mentioning that even in these rural settings where there were meat-packing plants, a lot fo the workers ride a company bus, they all work long hours with protection that often comes off, or is insufficient, and live in densely packed home environments.

Basically, poor environments, with density in communities, are going to get hit harder, and of course if vitamin D deficiency is happening due to darker skin color and winter and it's all compounded by other factors like bad diet and stress, it's gonna be worse.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Congratulations, Eric. How does Miss V like being a sister?

ORIGINAL: obvert

Just a quick post on this OT event. Sebastian was born on May 11 at 21:53 in London. Everyone is now home and healthy, napping actually. [:)]

She's involved and happy about it now. I'm sure there'll be ups and downs.

[Nomad]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Just a quick post on this OT event. Sebastian was born on May 11 at 21:53 in London. Everyone is now home and healthy, napping actually. [:)]

Congrats sir. Happy wishes for all.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

If there really are 50 primary cases from the "curious" guy in South Korea that is an R0=50

What the heck was the guy DOING?

Are you asking from a professional point of view or from a personal interest?

Just "curious"[:)]

It does occur to me that in order to "successfully" infect 50 others in 3 hrs it might require actual INTENT to do so. I wonder if it is some kind of self-loathing rage or even hatred of gays.

These kinds of reports make me think it's very clearly aerosolised.

Clubs are packed, but you're really not touching a lot of other people's hands or wiping your hands on much, usually. Sure, at the bar, and I guess a bunch could have gone to the same bar to order and put their hand on his sweat spot, but probably he was just breathing it out into the air.

I think the report was he went to about four bars though too.

This makes me think the recent uptick in tube usage isn't going to go well here.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... down-eased

A bunch of idiots without masks too.

The UK government just released a figure that said there is still too much community transmission (148,000 new cases in two weeks) to open anything else beyond the moves that happened this week to get manufacturing, construction and the more physical industries back online.

The Roche anti-body test was approved here, which means soon we'll all get to find out if we've had it or not (and most likely get a "wellness pass" biometrics card as well. Being a key-worker (teacher) I and my family would be in line to get this somewhat soon.

[Lowpe]

Congratulations!

Were you able to be in the room for the birth...a lot here in the states are forbidding it.

[Canoerebel]

Early in this thread, there was a chart posted showing transmissibility (Ro) vs. lethality of Covid-19. It showed the same rates for other infectious diseases, including the 1918 Spanish flu-type. My recollection is that the chart (this is at least two months ago) indicated Covid-19 was more transmissible but less lethal than the 1918 flu.

At that time, Covid's Ro was estimated, I believe, at around 2.5 or 2.8. Lethality was then above 1%.

I assume the Ro has remained the same, but through countermeasures the "manipulated" Ro has dropped below 1.0 for about 90% of the states and for the country as a whole and for most other nations. And lethality is somewhere closer to 0.1%, much less than estimated early on.

I'd be interested to see that chart again and any analysis into how the estimated rates might've changed since. How does it compare to 1918 now?

Overall, we met the early objective of flattening the curve. The Ro rate has proven susceptible to countermeasures. We've begun easing them, in some cases as much as a month ago. And thus far the results are very promising. The main problems continue to be confined to limited areas, in many cases in jurisdictions that haven't begun easing. In those that have, flare ups have been limited.

[Encircled]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Just a quick post on this OT event. Sebastian was born on May 11 at 21:53 in London. Everyone is now home and healthy, napping actually. [:)]

Congratulations!

Always better to have two!

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Congratulations!

Were you able to be in the room for the birth...a lot here in the states are forbidding it.

Thanks Lowpe (and all).

I was there, and we changed our birthing plan after the lockdown due to this.Hospitals for a while were prohibiting partners joining. It turned out to be the better option anyway, a stand-alone birthing centre on the Isle of Dogs called "The Barkentine." Which of course is a type of sailing ship. I like that connection.

All midwives there, and they were fantastic.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Congratulations!

Were you able to be in the room for the birth...a lot here in the states are forbidding it.

Thanks Lowpe (and all).

I was there, and we changed our birthing plan after the lockdown due to this.Hospitals for a while were prohibiting partners joining. It turned out to be the better option anyway, a stand-alone birthing centre on the Isle of Dogs called "The Barkentine." Which of course is a type of sailing ship. I like that connection.

All midwives there, and they were fantastic.

My god! I read the highlighted part to my wife, here over my shoulder, and she vehemently disagrees that it could be "a better option."[:D] However, she did sound a bit like a sailor in her disagreement.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Just a quick post on this OT event. Sebastian was born on May 11 at 21:53 in London. Everyone is now home and healthy, napping actually. [:)]

warspite1

Congratulations

[Lowpe]

Wisconsin Gov. Says State is 'Wild West' After Stay-at-Home Order Ruling

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/wisco ... spartanntp

Just saying not everything has to carry a criminal penalty, there is team building, communication, leadership, consensus.

[Lowpe]

I don't think anyone has posted anything about Iceland, so it is about time someone did.

Shipment of Antimalarial Drug Has Arrived

https://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/news ... s_arrived/

Quick read, interesting for side effects in some areas, and drug availability.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Congratulations!

Were you able to be in the room for the birth...a lot here in the states are forbidding it.

Thanks Lowpe (and all).

I was there, and we changed our birthing plan after the lockdown due to this.Hospitals for a while were prohibiting partners joining. It turned out to be the better option anyway, a stand-alone birthing centre on the Isle of Dogs called "The Barkentine." Which of course is a type of sailing ship. I like that connection.

All midwives there, and they were fantastic.

My god! I read the highlighted part to my wife, here over my shoulder, and she vehemently disagrees that it could be "a better option."[:D] However, she did sound a bit like a sailor in her disagreement.

It's not actually a Barkentine, just in name. It's a state of the art medical centre with the Birthing Centre on top.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

France has 14.6% mortality (total cases divided by mortality, Worldometers). Italy, UK, Belgium, Sweden and Netherlands are over 10%. Spain is right at 10%. The US at 6%. Germany at 4.4%. South Korea 2.5%. Japan 4/10ths of a percent.

There are large numbers of cases in many countries, but mortality percentages differ greatly. Why? Tabulating criteria? Quality of medical care? Average age or underlying health conditions of patients? Population density? Environmental conditions (such as pollution). A combination of these and/or others?

One possibility: 3.6% of Japanese are obese (BMI over 30). The correlation doesn't hold well among western nations, however, where the rate is 39% of Americans, 29% UK and 23% Germany (figures limited to adults for these three nations).

These are the questions that need answering I think. I tend to think it is a combination of factors, but then which of those factors is most meaningful? For example CR mentions density:

Interestingly, Seoul's population density is almost twice that of New York City, four times higher than Los Angeles and eight times higher than the density of Rome.

Diet? Past experience with viral outbreaks? How about effectiveness of local govt? Life cycle of the virus?

Here is a study from Canada:

Canadian study finds temperature, latitude not associated with COVID-19 spread


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 083551.htm

A new study finds that temperature and latitude do not appear to be associated with the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but school closures and other public health measures are having a positive effect.

--
BTW, This is the 3rd source I have seen that mentions closing schools to have a positive effect.

The gold standard of mortality won’t be available for a year or two. At that time you will be able to determine a simple number. Using years and years of historical records you determine two numbers. How many people were expected to die in 2020 In a a world without Covid, against how many actually did. Subtract one from the other and you have “excess mortality”. That is how many were killed, by all causes, from Covid. All causes: Covid, suicide, delayed medical care, people that should have gone to a doctor but didn’t, ect

With all due respect, that number you cited-the 'excess mortality' number gleaned in the future won't directly address COVID deaths alone. As we are all finding out, deaths caused by suicide, depression, alcohol or drug abuse, physical abuse, delayed surgeries, etc. aren't directly attributable to COVID, but our response to COVID. It is entirely possible that our overzealous response may have put more people in harms' way than it has saved. We need to be able to suss this number from the COVID-specific deaths to have meaningful insight into how to deal with these things in the future. Assigning our self-wrought troubles (and ALL 'excess mortality') to COVID would be too simplistic.

[obvert]

As we all look around for good examples of how to battle this virus, and what seems to be working in different areas, this situation seems to have flown under the radar.

A state in India, Kerala, has had a surprising success in the organization and preparation necessary to keep cases low, treat infection, track and isolate. All due to it's Health Minister, a former teacher. The connection between health goals and education is mentioned several times in this, which among other things, caught my interest.

Test, Trace, Isolate and Support. This support part is sometimes missed in other places.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... m-covid-19

On 20 January, KK Shailaja phoned one of her medically trained deputies. She had read online about a dangerous new virus spreading in China. “Will it come to us?” she asked. “Definitely, Madam,” he replied. And so the health minister of the Indian state of Kerala began her preparations.

Four months later, Kerala has reported only 524 cases of Covid-19, four deaths and – according to Shailaja – no community transmission. The state has a population of about 35 million and a GDP per capita of only £2,200. By contrast, the UK (double the population, GDP per capita of £33,100) has reported more than 40,000 deaths, while the US (10 times the population, GDP per capita of £51,000) has reported more than 82,000 deaths; both countries have rampant community transmission.

As such, Shailaja Teacher, as the 63-year-old minister is affectionately known, has attracted some new nicknames in recent weeks – Coronavirus Slayer and Rockstar Health Minister among them. The names sit oddly with the merry, bespectacled former secondary school science teacher, but they reflect the widespread admiration she has drawn for demonstrating that effective disease containment is possible not only in a democracy, but in a poor one.

How has this been achieved? Three days after reading about the new virus in China, and before Kerala had its first case of Covid-19, Shailaja held the first meeting of her rapid response team. The next day, 24 January, the team set up a control room and instructed the medical officers in Kerala’s 14 districts to do the same at their level. By the time the first case arrived, on 27 January, via a plane from Wuhan, the state had already adopted the World Health Organization’s protocol of test, trace, isolate and support.

--------------------

In late February, encountering one of Shailaja’s surveillance teams at the airport, a Malayali family returning from Venice was evasive about its travel history and went home without submitting to the now-standard controls. By the time medical personnel detected a case of Covid-19 and traced it back to them, their contacts were in the hundreds. Contact tracers tracked them all down, with the help of advertisements and social media, and they were placed in quarantine. Six developed Covid-19.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Frightening thought. What of all the deferred Confessions for Catholics? There is going to be a serious backlog of sins to deal with. And what if you get hit by a truck while you are waiting? Can a Governor give you some kind of waiver like a no eviction order until July or something?

They should fit a taxicab with multiple cameras and have a socially gregarious priest driver extract confessions from the riders. Faces could be airbrushed in post-production for privacy concerns. Call it, "Taxicab confessions" and air it on HBO?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: Lowpe



These are the questions that need answering I think. I tend to think it is a combination of factors, but then which of those factors is most meaningful? For example CR mentions density:

Interestingly, Seoul's population density is almost twice that of New York City, four times higher than Los Angeles and eight times higher than the density of Rome.

Diet? Past experience with viral outbreaks? How about effectiveness of local govt? Life cycle of the virus?

Here is a study from Canada:

Canadian study finds temperature, latitude not associated with COVID-19 spread


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 083551.htm

A new study finds that temperature and latitude do not appear to be associated with the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but school closures and other public health measures are having a positive effect.

--
BTW, This is the 3rd source I have seen that mentions closing schools to have a positive effect.

The gold standard of mortality won’t be available for a year or two. At that time you will be able to determine a simple number. Using years and years of historical records you determine two numbers. How many people were expected to die in 2020 In a a world without Covid, against how many actually did. Subtract one from the other and you have “excess mortality”. That is how many were killed, by all causes, from Covid. All causes: Covid, suicide, delayed medical care, people that should have gone to a doctor but didn’t, ect

With all due respect, that number you cited-the 'excess mortality' number gleaned in the future won't directly address COVID deaths alone. As we are all finding out, deaths caused by suicide, depression, alcohol or drug abuse, physical abuse, delayed surgeries, etc. aren't directly attributable to COVID, but our response to COVID. It is entirely possible that our overzealous response may have put more people in harms' way than it has saved. We need to be able to suss this number from the COVID-specific deaths to have meaningful insight into how to deal with these things in the future. Assigning our self-wrought troubles (and ALL 'excess mortality') to COVID would be too simplistic.

Although, few are looking for the lives saved by lockdowns. I posted two separate studies a while back on lives saved due to pollution reduction and less traffic on the roads and fewer accidents. In CA alone fatal accidents were halved over the period measured. In the study on pollution in Europe an estimated 11,000+ lives were saved/extended during the month of study due to lower pollution rates, and other health conditions like asthma and early term births were lessened as well.

There are possibly more reasons people might be less vulnerable to certain causes of death in lockdown. Those should all be part of the count too.

So far worldwide suicides are tracking normally, as I posted in the same area.

Due to the connection between Covid and heart conditions that one is going to be hard to sort out in the end. Possibly also other underlying conditions where someone never was tested for Covid but died of another cause, yet had the virus.

It's all a big mess, but very complex.

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Frightening thought. What of all the deferred Confessions for Catholics? There is going to be a serious backlog of sins to deal with. And what if you get hit by a truck while you are waiting? Can a Governor give you some kind of waiver like a no eviction order until July or something?

Catholics can give “general absolution” to large groups. Seems a cop out but if you have strayed for a long time you can get back on the right road to heaven pretty quick