OT: Corona virus

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Just a quick post on this OT event. Sebastian was born on May 11 at 21:53 in London. Everyone is now home and healthy, napping actually. [:)]

Outstanding and congratulations! Yeah, sometimes they lay low for the first 2 weeks. Once you think this ones going to be easy they perk up. Great news in tough times. All the best to you and your family

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: Lowpe



These are the questions that need answering I think. I tend to think it is a combination of factors, but then which of those factors is most meaningful? For example CR mentions density:

Interestingly, Seoul's population density is almost twice that of New York City, four times higher than Los Angeles and eight times higher than the density of Rome.

Diet? Past experience with viral outbreaks? How about effectiveness of local govt? Life cycle of the virus?

Here is a study from Canada:

Canadian study finds temperature, latitude not associated with COVID-19 spread


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 083551.htm

A new study finds that temperature and latitude do not appear to be associated with the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but school closures and other public health measures are having a positive effect.

--
BTW, This is the 3rd source I have seen that mentions closing schools to have a positive effect.

The gold standard of mortality won’t be available for a year or two. At that time you will be able to determine a simple number. Using years and years of historical records you determine two numbers. How many people were expected to die in 2020 In a a world without Covid, against how many actually did. Subtract one from the other and you have “excess mortality”. That is how many were killed, by all causes, from Covid. All causes: Covid, suicide, delayed medical care, people that should have gone to a doctor but didn’t, ect

With all due respect, that number you cited-the 'excess mortality' number gleaned in the future won't directly address COVID deaths alone. As we are all finding out, deaths caused by suicide, depression, alcohol or drug abuse, physical abuse, delayed surgeries, etc. aren't directly attributable to COVID, but our response to COVID. It is entirely possible that our overzealous response may have put more people in harms' way than it has saved. We need to be able to suss this number from the COVID-specific deaths to have meaningful insight into how to deal with these things in the future. Assigning our self-wrought troubles (and ALL 'excess mortality') to COVID would be too simplistic.

Overzealous is the wrong word by far.

From Scotland's data that I posted earlier, Covid is accounting for almost all (96%) of the 400 or so excess deaths for this current time of year.

I think it's too early for insight into the wider effects just quite yet, as I suspect they'll be tied to the economic ramifications of C19 more so the health ramifications.

[USSAmerica]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Just a quick post on this OT event. Sebastian was born on May 11 at 21:53 in London. Everyone is now home and healthy, napping actually. [:)]

Many congratulations, Eric!

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Early in this thread, there was a chart posted showing transmissibility (Ro) vs. lethality of Covid-19. It showed the same rates for other infectious diseases, including the 1918 Spanish flu-type. My recollection is that the chart (this is at least two months ago) indicated Covid-19 was more transmissible but less lethal than the 1918 flu.

At that time, Covid's Ro was estimated, I believe, at around 2.5 or 2.8. Lethality was then above 1%.

I assume the Ro has remained the same, but through countermeasures the "manipulated" Ro has dropped below 1.0 for about 90% of the states and for the country as a whole and for most other nations. And lethality is somewhere closer to 0.1%, much less than estimated early on.

I'd be interested to see that chart again and any analysis into how the estimated rates might've changed since. How does it compare to 1918 now?

Overall, we met the early objective of flattening the curve. The Ro rate has proven susceptible to countermeasures. We've begun easing them, in some cases as much as a month ago. And thus far the results are very promising. The main problems continue to be confined to limited areas, in many cases in jurisdictions that haven't begun easing. In those that have, flare ups have been limited.

Looks like Covid R0 value has been upgraded to 5.7. https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nou ... er#meaning. If this number is correct Covid is significantly more contagious than the Spanish

[JohnDillworth]

Lots of technical detail here but if you jump down to the Discussion section the CDC is citing a study that shows Covid-19 with an R0 value of 5.7 which is significantly more infectious than originally though. Hopefully someone smart like Chickenboy can take a look at this and render an opinion.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

[Canoerebel]

Our mall is just a couple of miles down the road. For many years, I've routinely taken my lunch there, purchased a large unsweet ice tea, and read while eating. I resumed doing so last week, after a six-week Covid-hiatus. At first, there was next to nobody in the food court or in line at the vendors. Today was noticeably, remarkably more busy. People are definitely much more active. As best I can tell, there remains a wariness and caution about the wheels possibly coming off. Set against that feeling is an increasing confidence in returning to a more active work- and lifestyle. People are careful and polite in maintaining social distancing and being courteous. All restaurant employees wear masks. Only a few customers do - probably less than ten percent. Nursing homes and assisted living facilities remain on lockdown.

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Our mall is just a couple of miles down the road. For many years, I've routinely taken my lunch there, purchased a large unsweet ice tea, and read while eating. I resumed doing so last week, after a six-week Covid-hiatus. At first, there was next to nobody in the food court or in line at the vendors. Today was noticeably, remarkably more busy. People are definitely much more active. As best I can tell, there remains a wariness and caution about the wheels possibly coming off. Set against that feeling is an increasing confidence in returning to a more active work- and lifestyle. People are careful and polite in maintaining social distancing and being courteous. All restaurant employees wear masks. Only a few customers do - probably less than ten percent. Nursing homes and assisted living facilities remain on lockdown.

I hope I’m wrong and leaving politics aside I honestly feel that there is a strong current of “ contrary for the sake of being contrary” in this country. Folks may put a patriotic face on it but I am truly afraid that said contrary streak is going to get us in an awful lot of trouble this time. This microbe is heartless, mindless, unrelenting and doesn’t give a fig if you are blue or red or white or brown or what courts or Governors or TV pundits or newspapers say. It will stop when the virus says it stops and if we do nothing or little we will reap the whirlwind. Time will prove me right or wrong. I sincerely hope I am wrong

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Our mall is just a couple of miles down the road. For many years, I've routinely taken my lunch there, purchased a large unsweet ice tea, and read while eating. I resumed doing so last week, after a six-week Covid-hiatus. At first, there was next to nobody in the food court or in line at the vendors. Today was noticeably, remarkably more busy. People are definitely much more active. As best I can tell, there remains a wariness and caution about the wheels possibly coming off. Set against that feeling is an increasing confidence in returning to a more active work- and lifestyle. People are careful and polite in maintaining social distancing and being courteous. All restaurant employees wear masks. Only a few customers do - probably less than ten percent. Nursing homes and assisted living facilities remain on lockdown.

You are in Georgia, you don't have to call it unsweet, it is assumed.

The lockdown can't continue much longer. You know why. No study, no models. Simply that my wife's Bible Study group (met over Zoom today) wants to go to the hairdresser and quite frankly that is a demographic group that you don't want to mess with.

The lockdown, at least here in Pennsylvania, was never really a lockdown. Heck, Karate clubs got labelled essential. Or there is footage of the press dutifully social distancing and wearing masks during televised press activities, and once the cameras are presumed to be off, the masks come off and they are backslapping each other virus be damned.

The two week experiment at flattening the curve, not over running the medical system, turned into a two month experiment in getting the testing numbers up, and now, according to WHO will take 5 years to control the virus. I am reminded of the Vietnam era saying, to save the village, we had to destroy it and that is what is happening to the medical system.

It is the Wild West out there! I am waiting for Human Sacrifice to resurface.

Wisconsin bars flooded with patrons hours after state Supreme Court strikes down coronavirus stay-at-home order

https://www.foxnews.com/us/wisconsin-ba ... oronavirus

[Canoerebel]

To John D: That feeling is probably influenced heavily by location. I think the situation in NYC is so vastly different than what it is here that we'd have difficulty comprehending what you're dealing with and how it shapes your feeling about things. And vice versa. That's one advantage of letting governors make decisions, rather than implementing one-size-fits-all decisions. There's never been a sense in my region (nor, as best I can tell, in my state) of people being contrary. My community responded early and pretty enthusiastically to countermeasures. Bear in mind that we closed our schools about ten days or more before NYC. The press is probably misrepresenting the situation, at least as it exists here.

[MakeeLearn]

Vitamin D appears to play role in COVID-19 mortality rates
May 8, 2020

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05- ... ality.html



"After studying global data from the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, researchers have discovered a strong correlation between severe vitamin D deficiency and mortality rates. "


"This is exactly where Backman believes vitamin D plays a major role. Not only does vitamin D enhance our innate immune systems, it also prevents our immune systems from becoming dangerously overactive. This means that having healthy levels of vitamin D could protect patients against severe complications, including death, from COVID-19."


""Our analysis shows that it might be as high as cutting the mortality rate in half," Backman said. "

[MakeeLearn]

Estimating The Infection Fatality Rate Among Symptomatic COVID-19 Cases In The United States
May 07, 2020

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/ ... 2020.00455

"Knowing the infection fatality rate (IFR)...."

"The IFR-S in the US was estimated to be 1.3% (95% central credible interval: 0.6% to 2.1%). County-specific rates varied from 0.5% to 3.6%. The overall IFR for COVID-19 should be lower when we account for cases that remain and recover without symptoms."

[MakeeLearn]

SO..... ~98% of people will not die from CV19?!

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Our mall is just a couple of miles down the road. For many years, I've routinely taken my lunch there, purchased a large unsweet ice tea, and read while eating. I resumed doing so last week, after a six-week Covid-hiatus. At first, there was next to nobody in the food court or in line at the vendors. Today was noticeably, remarkably more busy. People are definitely much more active. As best I can tell, there remains a wariness and caution about the wheels possibly coming off. Set against that feeling is an increasing confidence in returning to a more active work- and lifestyle. People are careful and polite in maintaining social distancing and being courteous. All restaurant employees wear masks. Only a few customers do - probably less than ten percent. Nursing homes and assisted living facilities remain on lockdown.

I hope I’m wrong and leaving politics aside I honestly feel that there is a strong current of “ contrary for the sake of being contrary” in this country. Folks may put a patriotic face on it but I am truly afraid that said contrary streak is going to get us in an awful lot of trouble this time. This microbe is heartless, mindless, unrelenting and doesn’t give a fig if you are blue or red or white or brown or what courts or Governors or TV pundits or newspapers say. It will stop when the virus says it stops and if we do nothing or little we will reap the whirlwind. Time will prove me right or wrong. I sincerely hope I am wrong

I heard, by which I mean you should question, on the radio hourly news update that 50% of Americans are tapping into their retirement savings because of Covid. In addition that 1/3 of credit card holders are getting their allowable credit reduced.

I kind of give credence to this considering my background. A small business owner is ineligible for unemployment. Their business value (if impacted by lockdwon) is now approaching 0 if not badly into the red.

It simply seems to me that they are damned if they do and certainly damned if they don't. The rational decision is to open up and face the uncertain virus and govt reaction over the certain economic death.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: CanoerebelThe press is probably misrepresenting the situation, at least as it exists here.

Ya think.[:D] I guess they can't understand offering hearts to the Sun God, those heathens.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn



SO..... ~98% of people will not die from CV19?!

Which would make it much more deadly than influenza.

However the death rate for influenza is calculated much differently.

[Canoerebel]

A few weeks ago, there were reports that the mortality rate for Covid would end up at 0.1% or thereabouts. That's roughly in line with seasonal flu and means that one out of a thousand infected patients would be expected to die (that's what I think it means, anyhow). That information is a few weeks old, so there may have been adjustments. But nobody's been talking 2% after about April 1.

[Canoerebel]

Small businesses account for 49% of jobs in America, so how they're faring is critical to the economy.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth



The gold standard of mortality won’t be available for a year or two. At that time you will be able to determine a simple number. Using years and years of historical records you determine two numbers. How many people were expected to die in 2020 In a a world without Covid, against how many actually did. Subtract one from the other and you have “excess mortality”. That is how many were killed, by all causes, from Covid. All causes: Covid, suicide, delayed medical care, people that should have gone to a doctor but didn’t, ect

With all due respect, that number you cited-the 'excess mortality' number gleaned in the future won't directly address COVID deaths alone. As we are all finding out, deaths caused by suicide, depression, alcohol or drug abuse, physical abuse, delayed surgeries, etc. aren't directly attributable to COVID, but our response to COVID. It is entirely possible that our overzealous response may have put more people in harms' way than it has saved. We need to be able to suss this number from the COVID-specific deaths to have meaningful insight into how to deal with these things in the future. Assigning our self-wrought troubles (and ALL 'excess mortality') to COVID would be too simplistic.

Although, few are looking for the lives saved by lockdowns. I posted two separate studies a while back on lives saved due to pollution reduction and less traffic on the roads and fewer accidents. In CA alone fatal accidents were halved over the period measured. In the study on pollution in Europe an estimated 11,000+ lives were saved/extended during the month of study due to lower pollution rates, and other health conditions like asthma and early term births were lessened as well.

There are possibly more reasons people might be less vulnerable to certain causes of death in lockdown. Those should all be part of the count too.

So far worldwide suicides are tracking normally, as I posted in the same area.

Due to the connection between Covid and heart conditions that one is going to be hard to sort out in the end. Possibly also other underlying conditions where someone never was tested for Covid but died of another cause, yet had the virus.

It's all a big mess, but very complex.

They are all good points, with the last, that they are very complex being best. It is also very early.

You could argue that the lack of automobile accidents (and resultant savings in life) is partially offset by a reduction in the supply of organ transplants. Certainly suicide in two years from now from despair whatever the reason but linked to covid is certainly not counted.

Or the delay in scheduled operations causes many problems those surgeries would have found to be delayed. Conversely in the short run there will be less medical mistake deaths because those operations are delayed.

In the best of times, at least here in the US, you can't get reliable suicide numbers for two years and at least 1/3rd of all causes of death are incorrect.

We did however, have two very good petri dishes to look at early in this. The Diamnond Princess and the American warship.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I hope I’m wrong and leaving politics aside I honestly feel that there is a strong current of “ contrary for the sake of being contrary” in this country. Folks may put a patriotic face on it but I am truly afraid that said contrary streak is going to get us in an awful lot of trouble this time. This microbe is heartless, mindless, unrelenting and doesn’t give a fig if you are blue or red or white or brown or what courts or Governors or TV pundits or newspapers say. It will stop when the virus says it stops and if we do nothing or little we will reap the whirlwind. Time will prove me right or wrong. I sincerely hope I am wrong

One way to look at John, is that every day the lockdown continues subtract x% from your pension, and imagine you have 0 income coming in. You are looking at either tapping your pension for money (with early withdraw penalties) and or re-mortgaging your house.

Oh, wait. You can't re-mortgage your house because all of sudden you have no income. Selling your house, and praying that you will be able to find an apartment where you can pass a credit check.

Add to this formula, that you happen to live in an area where 66% of deaths are in nursing homes with an average age of 79 and a median age of 84 with severe comorbidities.

A lot of people are acting very rationally on all sides of this.

[Cap Mandrake]

If preventive health care actually works, there will be downstream consequences from delayed or missed preventive measures (colonoscopy, mammograms, cervical exam, diabetes checks, eye checks for diabetes, blood pressure management, preventive vaccinations etc. etc)

You won't see these problems in two months.