OT: Corona virus

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

There's plenty of meat in America — for those who can afford it
1 hr ago


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... li=BBnbfcL



"So while lower-income consumers are finding meat hard to come by -- with Kroger Co. and Costco Wholesale Corp. rationing purchases -- richer Americans have their pick of fancy offerings that often cost twice as much, or more."

The suppliers are different. Amish chickens aren't marched into a factory 20,000 at a time[:D]

I remember slaughtering chickens. Grandpa's dog liked the heads . . .

There are a lot of small stores with their own equipment to cut up larger animals.

[Lowpe]

Pa. officials revoked business waivers the night before publishing list of recipients

https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania ... story.html

More Spotlight PA, a statewide cooperative journalist organisation that is really hitting it out of the park. As reprinted by my old hometown paper the Morning Call (Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton area).

This on the fiasco of essential business.

[Cap Mandrake]

The tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (like Humira) are also being tested. They also are immune modulators. I think there is a good chance Humira might work..but it is pricey to make.

[RangerJoe]

Bars and other businesses quickly reopen in Wisconsin — for now
The sudden reopening following a state Supreme Court ruling has led to a range of local responses.
By Brooks Johnson and Mary Lynn Smith Star Tribune
May 14, 2020

Wisconsin’s statewide shutdown meant to slow the spread of COVID-19 has suddenly turned into a patchwork of regional responses as some bars quickly filled with patrons and local leaders scrambled to come up with their own rules.

The conservative majority of the Wisconsin Supreme Court late Wednesday afternoon ruled that the “safer at home” order from Democratic Gov. Tony Evers was invalid and threw it out effective immediately. The order forces Evers to work with the GOP-controlled Legislature on a new plan, a process that could take weeks; the two sides were meeting Thursday morning.

Thursday afternoon Superior and Douglas County are expected to announce a number of requirements for businesses to reopen, including adopting guidelines the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation recently issued. Tentative plans would limit gatherings to no more than 20 people at a time. If the rules are broken licenses may be at risk, and if outbreaks occur at local businesses they would be publicly identified.
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“I think it’s a start in the right direction — it’s where we need to go,” said Kern, district director for the Wisconsin Tavern League and owner of Jimmy’s Saloon. “We’re going to be able to show the community and people who think we shouldn’t be able to open … that safety is our top concern.”

Some bars, including Gronk’s, opened right away Wednesday.

“We will be taking proper precautions with limited capacity, sanitizing, and social distancing to keep our customers and staff safe,” the bar wrote on Facebook.
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The spread does seem to be slowing, at least: Last week a free testing site was set up in Douglas County that was open to anyone in the northwest part of the state with possible COVID-19 symptoms. Out of 171 tests, none were positive. The county of 44,000 people has had 11 COVID-19 cases and no deaths. Across the border, St. Louis County reported its 100th case on Thursday.
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As of Wednesday, there were nearly 10,100 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Wisconsin and 421 deaths, according to the state Department of Health.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

https://www.startribune.com/wisconsin-b ... 570471942/

I would bet that people from Duluth, Minnesota (not Georgia) which is the largest community in Saint Louis county will head to the bars there! Duluth and Superior are right next to each other.

[Cap Mandrake]

Are they going to have bar peanuts?

[RangerJoe]

As many as 20,000 Minnesota businesses could reopen Monday, but will they?
By Joe Carlson and Jeremy Olson Star Tribune
April 27, 2020

If you’re looking to enjoy the spring weather with a newly assembled pair of Minnesota-made Riedell roller skates, you’ll need to wait a touch longer.

Afforded an early-bird chance along with other select businesses to reopen Monday amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Riedell opted to continue to retrofit social-distancing strategies in its Red Wing plant and resume skate manufacturing as planned on May 4 — the final day of the state’s current stay-at-home order.

“We’re a manufacturer. We need to build a product to sell,” said Riedell President Bob Riegelman, “but we want to do it the right way.”

The decision reflects a truism voiced lately by business and health leaders and Gov. Tim Walz — that no magic number or date is going to reopen the state of Minnesota. The decision to open factories and stores amid the pandemic is more like turning a dial than flipping a switch, Walz said, as some businesses with controlled environments can open sooner than others — but only when they’re sure it is safe to do so.

“I don’t want to be driven by an arbitrary date or arbitrary numbers,” Walz said. “I want to see how Minnesota’s responding.”

Walz announced last Thursday that he would allow earlier reopening of around 20,000 businesses, mostly in small manufacturing and warehousing, putting 80,000 to 100,000 Minnesotans back to work four weeks after a state-mandated shutdown.
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Since recording its first COVID-19 case on March 6, Minnesota has seen more than 3,000 confirmed cases and more than 200 deaths. Walz has issued 45 executive orders related to COVID-19, closing schools and businesses, delaying elective medical procedures and ordering Minnesotans to stay home.

https://www.startribune.com/getting-bac ... fresh=true

[obvert]

Here is the study on Ro being estimated now at 5.7 for Covid.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

I'm a little fuzzy on how Rt is measured, or the numbers we're now looking at everywhere show transmissibility below 1.

Don't all of the systems estimate Rt based on known cases, thus tested cases? So if testing is higher or lower the Rt would be off from actual, right?

This site seems to imply that testing numbers are the starting point to measure effective Ro, labelled Rt.

One thing I'm also wondering is if the estimated Ro of the disease needs to be part of the equation, especially if that is 5.7 now. .

http://systrom.com/blog/the-metric-we-n ... -covid-19/

Bettencourt & Ribeiro’s original algorithm to estimate Rt is a function of how many new cases appear each day. The relationship between the number of cases yesterday and the number of cases today give us a hint of what Rt might be. However, we can’t rely on any one day too much in trying to guess Rt, as daily case counts are imperfect due to changing testing capacity, lags in data reporting, and random chance. However, using Bayes’ Theorem, we can take the new information we get from each day’s case count to adjust our expectation of what Rt is, getting closer to the true value as more daily data becomes available.

I applied this algorithm to the data to produce a model for each state’s Rt, and how it changes over time. But I noticed something strange. Over time, all states trended asymptotically to Rt = 1.0, refusing to descend below that value. Somehow, the algorithm wasn’t reflecting the reality that Rt could be < 1.0 as well.

To fix this, I made one significant change to their algorithm that maintains the integrity of Bettencourt & Ribeiro’s original work while allowing us to see the real-time picture clearly. The change was simple. Instead of considering every previous day of data we have to estimate Rt, I only use the last seven days. Doing so is mathematically sound and produces more accurate results when the model is compared to actual data, but I admit is not reviewed by anyone. While I invite feedback, I’m sharing these results with that disclaimer well in advance.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Lots of technical detail here but if you jump down to the Discussion section the CDC is citing a study that shows Covid-19 with an R0 value of 5.7 which is significantly more infectious than originally though.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

You're right, John. This paper (making some assumptions) identifies the R0 in Wuhan/Hubei at 5.8 (95% CI 3.8-8.5, pretty broad) early in the outbreak there.

This has been brought up here a few times. R0 is not a static measure and can be dialed up in a naive population of unsuspecting individuals at-say for example-a Chinese New Year banquet or down by social distancing, sanitation, PPE wearing, 'herd immunity', etc. Most states are probably below 1.0 on average right now, but if the environment or host subset is right ('alternative' Korean nightclub, meat processing production line, nursing home, chemo wards) the organism can spread much more readily.

ETA: Final para in discussion:

How contagious SARS-CoV-2 is in other countries remains to be seen. Given the rapid rate of spread as seen in current outbreaks in Europe, we need to be aware of the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 once it establishes sustained human-to-human transmission in a new population (20). Our results suggest that a combination of control measures, including early and active surveillance, quarantine, and especially strong social distancing efforts, are needed to slow down or stop the spread of the virus. If these measures are not implemented early and strongly, the virus has the potential to spread rapidly and infect a large fraction of the population, overwhelming healthcare systems. Fortunately, the decline in newly confirmed cases in China and South Korea in March 2020 and the stably low incidences in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore strongly suggest that the spread of the virus can be contained with early and appropriate measures.

[RangerJoe]

Stores at the Mall of America will reopen beginning on June 1, the Bloomington mall announced Thursday.

the decision on whether to reduce hours or close all together up to the stores themselves. (Scott Takushi / Pioneer Press)

Malls are among the Minnesota businesses that can resume in-person sales on Monday, if they operate at no more than 50 percent capacity and have social distancing plans, Gov. Tim Walz announced Wednesday.

The Mall of America has been working for two months to help identify and establish industry-wide reopening safety protocols. Waiting to reopen “will allow us the time to create the safest environment possible for our guests and allow our tenants the time needed to prepare for reopening,” according to a statement from the mall, which noted that not all retailers will reopen at the same time.

Restaurants and attractions at MOA will remain closed until there is further guidance from state officials. Food establishments may still operate through curbside and delivery.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... r-BB145BBF

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Are they going to have bar peanuts?

I don't know, I never went to bars there. They probably will have heavily salted popcorn . . .

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

There's plenty of meat in America — for those who can afford it
1 hr ago


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... li=BBnbfcL



"So while lower-income consumers are finding meat hard to come by -- with Kroger Co. and Costco Wholesale Corp. rationing purchases -- richer Americans have their pick of fancy offerings that often cost twice as much, or more."

The suppliers are different. Amish chickens aren't marched into a factory 20,000 at a time[:D]

The Amish are pretty darn harsh on their animals. [:(]

Man oh man-you ain't just whistlin' Dixie. [:(] Let's just say that they have a different understanding than conventional medicine of the concept of 'judicious use of antimicrobials', responsible breeding practices, 'equine lameness' and animal welfare.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Here is the study on Ro being estimated now at 5.7 for Covid.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

I'm a little fuzzy on how Rt is measured, or the numbers we're now looking at everywhere show transmissibility below 1.

Don't all of the systems estimate Rt based on known cases, thus tested cases? So if testing is higher or lower the Rt would be off from actual, right?

This site seems to imply that testing numbers are the starting point to measure effective Ro, labelled Rt.

One thing I'm also wondering is if the estimated Ro of the disease needs to be part of the equation, especially if that is 5.7 now. .

http://systrom.com/blog/the-metric-we-n ... -covid-19/

Bettencourt & Ribeiro’s original algorithm to estimate Rt is a function of how many new cases appear each day. The relationship between the number of cases yesterday and the number of cases today give us a hint of what Rt might be. However, we can’t rely on any one day too much in trying to guess Rt, as daily case counts are imperfect due to changing testing capacity, lags in data reporting, and random chance. However, using Bayes’ Theorem, we can take the new information we get from each day’s case count to adjust our expectation of what Rt is, getting closer to the true value as more daily data becomes available.

I applied this algorithm to the data to produce a model for each state’s Rt, and how it changes over time. But I noticed something strange. Over time, all states trended asymptotically to Rt = 1.0, refusing to descend below that value. Somehow, the algorithm wasn’t reflecting the reality that Rt could be < 1.0 as well.

To fix this, I made one significant change to their algorithm that maintains the integrity of Bettencourt & Ribeiro’s original work while allowing us to see the real-time picture clearly. The change was simple. Instead of considering every previous day of data we have to estimate Rt, I only use the last seven days. Doing so is mathematically sound and produces more accurate results when the model is compared to actual data, but I admit is not reviewed by anyone. While I invite feedback, I’m sharing these results with that disclaimer well in advance.

I read a English article, I posted it but you were off to the birthing boat, that talked about the Ro a fair bit. It mentioned the Ro as not being a constant number and they were uncertain of what variables effected it. Sure it is a calculated average, but it varies by demographic/environmental and other factors widely.

Oops, Chickenboy gave a better answer.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

There's plenty of meat in America — for those who can afford it
1 hr ago


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... li=BBnbfcL



"So while lower-income consumers are finding meat hard to come by -- with Kroger Co. and Costco Wholesale Corp. rationing purchases -- richer Americans have their pick of fancy offerings that often cost twice as much, or more."

The suppliers are different. Amish chickens aren't marched into a factory 20,000 at a time[:D]

The Amish are pretty darn harsh on their animals. [:(] But I get you point.[:)]

They will have 2 gardens, one they eat from and the other they sell from.[8|]

[MakeeLearn]

Trump says testing may be 'frankly overrated'
1 hr ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... li=BBnb7Kz



"We have more cases than anybody in the world, but why? Because we do more testing," Trump said. "When you test, you have a case. When you test you find something is wrong with people. If we didn't do any testing we would have very few cases. They don't want to write that. It's common sense. We test much more.""

[MakeeLearn]

New coronavirus case counts are going down in almost half of US states. But it's too soon to celebrate
May 14, 2020


https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/14/health/u ... index.html



" (CNN)First, the good news: In 24 states, the number of new coronavirus cases reported each day is generally going down.
In 17 states, the numbers are holding steady, according to an analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University. And in nine states, the numbers of new cases are still rising. "

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Lots of technical detail here but if you jump down to the Discussion section the CDC is citing a study that shows Covid-19 with an R0 value of 5.7 which is significantly more infectious than originally though.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

You're right, John. This paper (making some assumptions) identifies the R0 in Wuhan/Hubei at 5.8 (95% CI 3.8-8.5, pretty broad) early in the outbreak there.

This has been brought up here a few times. R0 is not a static measure and can be dialed up in a naive population of unsuspecting individuals at-say for example-a Chinese New Year banquet or down by social distancing, sanitation, PPE wearing, 'herd immunity', etc. Most states are probably below 1.0 on average right now, but if the environment or host subset is right ('alternative' Korean nightclub, meat processing production line, nursing home, chemo wards) the organism can spread much more readily.

ETA: Final para in discussion:

How contagious SARS-CoV-2 is in other countries remains to be seen. Given the rapid rate of spread as seen in current outbreaks in Europe, we need to be aware of the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 once it establishes sustained human-to-human transmission in a new population (20). Our results suggest that a combination of control measures, including early and active surveillance, quarantine, and especially strong social distancing efforts, are needed to slow down or stop the spread of the virus. If these measures are not implemented early and strongly, the virus has the potential to spread rapidly and infect a large fraction of the population, overwhelming healthcare systems. Fortunately, the decline in newly confirmed cases in China and South Korea in March 2020 and the stably low incidences in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore strongly suggest that the spread of the virus can be contained with early and appropriate measures.

Thanks for the analysis. As you say the R0 factor seems to be a combination of the microbe and the environment it lives in. I’m really impressed that one of the best repositories of information has been this thread. I think many of us have awoken brain cells that have long been dormant or have been busy elsewhere

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Lots of technical detail here but if you jump down to the Discussion section the CDC is citing a study that shows Covid-19 with an R0 value of 5.7 which is significantly more infectious than originally though.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

You're right, John. This paper (making some assumptions) identifies the R0 in Wuhan/Hubei at 5.8 (95% CI 3.8-8.5, pretty broad) early in the outbreak there.

This has been brought up here a few times. R0 is not a static measure and can be dialed up in a naive population of unsuspecting individuals at-say for example-a Chinese New Year banquet or down by social distancing, sanitation, PPE wearing, 'herd immunity', etc. Most states are probably below 1.0 on average right now, but if the environment or host subset is right ('alternative' Korean nightclub, meat processing production line, nursing home, chemo wards) the organism can spread much more readily.

ETA: Final para in discussion:

How contagious SARS-CoV-2 is in other countries remains to be seen. Given the rapid rate of spread as seen in current outbreaks in Europe, we need to be aware of the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 once it establishes sustained human-to-human transmission in a new population (20). Our results suggest that a combination of control measures, including early and active surveillance, quarantine, and especially strong social distancing efforts, are needed to slow down or stop the spread of the virus. If these measures are not implemented early and strongly, the virus has the potential to spread rapidly and infect a large fraction of the population, overwhelming healthcare systems. Fortunately, the decline in newly confirmed cases in China and South Korea in March 2020 and the stably low incidences in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore strongly suggest that the spread of the virus can be contained with early and appropriate measures.

Thanks for the analysis. As you say the R0 factor seems to be a combination of the microbe and the environment it lives in. I’m really impressed that one of the best repositories of information has been this thread. I think many of us have awoken brain cells that have long been dormant or have been busy elsewhere

+1

This thread has been awesome.

A few days ago, I had access to television news for the first time since this started. Conversely, I didn't have access to this thread or to the internet websites I've been consulting many times a day for two months. The experience was unnerving, with a strong sense of being underinformed. The news filtered through major broadcast stations was diluted, too general, lacked underlying data needed to really understand what's going on, and (IMO) is always biased. In this thread you get both sides, access to all kinds of raw data, and fabulous input from people we know who have right-on-point expertise.

[&o]

[Lowpe]

How decisions are made: 3 part time research assistants and a associate professor whip up a Covid model over the weekend that the:

Governor Walz relied heavily on these projections when he made his decision to issue a stay-at-home order on March 27.

https://cse.umn.edu/college/feature-sto ... -minnesota

Modeling COVID-19 for Minnesota

[sPzAbt653]

There are large numbers of cases in many countries, but mortality percentages differ greatly. Why? Tabulating criteria? Quality of medical care? Average age or underlying health conditions of patients? Population density? Environmental conditions (such as pollution)? A combination of these and/or others?

Different strains of the virus, some more deadly than others. Last I heard there were 30 different strains identified. New York City most likely had the most deadly strain, unless the Chinese or Russians are hiding a secret.

[Lowpe]

TIME BOMB ‘Trump Death Clock’ showing US coronavirus toll in real-time is beamed onto massive Times Square billboard

https://archive.fo/r9F8W archive of The US Sun

Almost like Philadelphia Sports fans...we are infamous for booing our best players.[:)]