OT: Corona virus

[fcooke]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Pa. officials revoked business waivers the night before publishing list of recipients

https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania ... story.html

More Spotlight PA, a statewide cooperative journalist organisation that is really hitting it out of the park. As reprinted by my old hometown paper the Morning Call (Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton area).

This on the fiasco of essential business.

wife wanted take out last night so I went out and fetched. the nail salon was open. But I am guessing Lafayette College won't be having a reunion this year, where I got my degree back in the day. And the CA fall semester shutdown for their UNI system seems a bit premature to me.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: fcooke

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Pa. officials revoked business waivers the night before publishing list of recipients

https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania ... story.html

More Spotlight PA, a statewide cooperative journalist organisation that is really hitting it out of the park. As reprinted by my old hometown paper the Morning Call (Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton area).

This on the fiasco of essential business.

wife wanted take out last night so I went out and fetched. the nail salon was open. But I am guessing Lafayette College won't be having a reunion this year, where I got my degree back in the day. And the CA fall semester shutdown for their UNI system seems a bit premature to me.

The California shutdown is probably a cost saving measure for the state. They can still collect full tuition but have lower costs. Also, by giving some employees fewer hours they can collect unemployment including the extra coronavirus money which can then lead to more money for the workers. They have more money to then spend in the local community.

[fcooke]

Hope that is not the case. I am very involved with my high school, and all this discussion of remote education leaves me cold. but I seem to be a Luddite.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

My buddy at Asia Times finally finished up his big East vs West piece (actually, it's just Part 1--Part 2 tomorrow). He may be a bit soft regarding China's numbers, but his macro points hold up I think. There's a lot of food for thought in there. Here it is: Why East beat West on Covid-19

No happy hour this evening as my sister-in-law's father-in-law passed away today (cancer, not Covid). I only met him at our wedding, but he seemed a nice chap. I later heard he was big in the Esperanto world, of all things.

Cheers,
CB

Speaking of that, if anyone in the US tried to use the measures used in the SK gay bar outbreak there would be an ACLU lawsuit filed in a IXth District court in 2 1/2 minutes, a restraining order in 10 and a Michelle Obama Netflix documentary with Oprah narrating in a week. The guilty officials would be gone in 4 hrs and would have to shut down their Twitter accounts, move out of town and wear Groucho sunglasses

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

How decisions are made: 3 part time research assistants and a associate professor whip up a Covid model over the weekend that the:

Governor Walz relied heavily on these projections when he made his decision to issue a stay-at-home order on March 27.

https://cse.umn.edu/college/feature-sto ... -minnesota

Modeling COVID-19 for Minnesota

This is another good article about people with expertise stepping up to work through the day and night to help figure this out. Hats off to them for this work.

I also love that this is going these reserchers a chance to continue to work with new inputs and a better understanding as this develops to fine tune the tools they've created.

That is certainly one way of looking at it.[:)] Another might be to look at the relationship between ICU patients and confirmed cases.

Mid April there were 100 COVID patients in an ICU status with approx. 1,800 confirmed cases. A month later there are 200 COVID patients in ICU with 13,000 confirmed cases. With more testing the relationship between positive cases and ICU cases is likely to drop. Yet they are now projecting an increase to 3,600 ventilator cases over the next 8 weeks.

They are predicting 1700 deaths by end of May, 29,000 deaths for 12 months. They are according to worldometers at 672. Interesting to note, and sad, nursing home deaths account for 80%.

Also interesting that the model assumed an 80% compliance rate with the lockdown, but they just reported that there is about a 36% compliance. How that is measured I don't know...cell phone tracking perhaps? 36 is an awfully specific number.

I will give kudos to MN for releasing the model publicly, but it took them until yesterday to do it..

[MakeeLearn]

Quarter of Covid-19 deaths in English hospitals were of diabetics

NHS’s first breakdown of underlying health conditions also finds 18% had dementia
14 May 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... d-diabetes

"That was the most common illness found in an analysis of what existing conditions patients had. The other commonest comorbidities were dementia (18%), serious breathing problems (15%) and chronic kidney disease (14%). One in ten (10%) suffered from ischaemic heart disease."

[MakeeLearn]

Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters
May 05, 2020.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20054361v2



"The absolute risk of COVID-19 death for people ≥80 years old ranged from 0.3 (Florida) to 10.6 per thousand (New York).

The COVID-19 death risk in people <65 years old during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the death risk from driving between 13 and 101 miles per day for 11 countries and 6 states, and was higher (equivalent to the death risk from driving 143-668 miles per day) for 6 other states and the UK."

"People <65 years old without underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.7-2.6% of all COVID-19 deaths (data available from France, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Georgia, and New York City)."


"CONCLUSIONS:

People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic."

[MakeeLearn]

Illegal Speakeasies Are Popping Up in New York Amid Lockdown
May 14, 2020


https://www.insidehook.com/daily_brief/ ... k-lockdown



"Page Six reports at least two Manhattan establishments have begun serving guests in secret. In typical Page Six fashion, details are scarce, but rumors point to secret speakeasies operating out of an unnamed “famous Upper East Side bar and lounge” as well as a “trendy downtown hotel.” But if you want to get in, you have to know somebody. The exclusive underground bars are reportedly open to “discreet friends of the owners and managers” only."

[Lowpe]

I have seen that comparison to driving before. I think it is absolutely a worthless comparison. YMMV.[:)]

[MakeeLearn]

Nationwide Lockdown Sparks Plunge In Local Govt Tax Revenues; Cuts In Services Strike As Demand Soars

05/15/2020
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/loc ... na-carnage


""Local governments are preparing to cut services, idle employees, raise taxes and sell assets," the report continues. "As a last resort, those burdened by excessive long-term debt and pension obligations could file for bankruptcy, although so far investors and analysts haven’t predicted a wave of insolvencies and not every state even allows it.""

[durnedwolf]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: fcooke

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Pa. officials revoked business waivers the night before publishing list of recipients

https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania ... story.html

More Spotlight PA, a statewide cooperative journalist organisation that is really hitting it out of the park. As reprinted by my old hometown paper the Morning Call (Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton area).

This on the fiasco of essential business.

wife wanted take out last night so I went out and fetched. the nail salon was open. But I am guessing Lafayette College won't be having a reunion this year, where I got my degree back in the day. And the CA fall semester shutdown for their UNI system seems a bit premature to me.

The California shutdown is probably a cost-saving measure for the state. They can still collect full tuition but have lower costs. Also, by giving some employees fewer hours they can collect unemployment including the extra coronavirus money which can then lead to more money for the workers. They have more money to then spend in the local community.

I work at a community college in California.

Regarding labor - naw - most of the college staff/faculty are union so going to virtual campuses is not an attempt to save coin off of the employees. Governor Newsome, in the May Revised Proposed State Budget, is planning on all state employees taking a 10% pay cut for 1 year - so that's where the labor savings are planned.

Instead, the reason for closing campuses and doing the fall semester on-line (virtual campus is kind of the nice catch-phrase) is the mandate to maintain that 2 meters of separation and not have "crowds" in the hallways and along major paths, people would take to get to and from their classes. No one is really prepared for how education is expected to look within the K-12 system or the college system.

If we are still driving towards herd immunity then the intent is to continue to try and avoid confined gatherings of people that are in close proximity (like a classroom). At least for the short-time future.

I'm interested to see if, when winter comes upon us, there is an increase in severe cases. My WAG is that, as long as this COVID virus doesn't start ramping up in the winter, most of our pandemic concerns will fade and masks will cease to become a norm.

I expect that the college campuses will re-open to students for the Spring 2021 semester.

[MakeeLearn]

Gavin Newsom’s $203.3 billion California budget cuts school funding, spends reserves

Updated 11 hours 50 minutes ago
https://www.modbee.com/news/california/ ... 26681.html

"California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s updated $203.3 billion budget proposal would cut school funding, cancel a planned boost in public pensions spending and draw down reserves to make up for a projected $54.3 billion budget deficit brought on by the coronavirus pandemic."

"The budget includes a significant decline in K-14 education funding, from $81.1 billion in last year’s budget to a projected $76 billion. The minimum amount required by California law would be $70.5 billion, but Newsom wants to add $4.4 billion from federal stimulus money the state has already received and use money that would have gone to extra pension payments to lessen the blow to schools."


"His revised 2020-21 budget plan would also reduce wages by 10 percent for California state workers and cut Medi-Cal services, including some dental and vision benefits."

[MakeeLearn]

Coronavirus live news: China marks one month with no Covid-19 deaths as virus pushes Germany into recession
May 2020


https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... st-updates

[Canoerebel]

My son, a senior at the University of Georgia, came home for spring break and simply stayed, since the rest of the term switched to online. Now he's doing a serious May-mester online. I was close enough to overhear the lectures over the computer. Terribly boring, with the instructors teaching in monotones. I commented to that effect. My son agreed, but noted he'd had one of the professors before and that he was a much better lecturer in a classroom.

I know an instructor of art at Emory University. She says it cannot be taught online. Ditto an acquaintance teaching in construction and engineering. Remote teaching in music? Veterinary medicine? Pharmacy?

Remote learning is a necessary stopgap measure but not a long term solution. My son (and his fiance, an art major in South Carolina) fervently hope the classrooms will be open come fall.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My son, a senior at the University of Georgia, came home for spring break and simply stayed, since the rest of the term switched to online. Now he's doing a serious May-mester online. I was close enough to overhear the lectures over the computer. Terribly boring, with the instructors teaching in monotones. I commented to that effect. My son agreed, but noted he'd had one of the professors before and that he was a much better lecturer in a classroom.

I know an instructor of art at Emory University. She says it cannot be taught online. Ditto an acquaintance teaching in construction and engineering. Remote teaching in music? Veterinary medicine? Pharmacy?

Remote learning is a necessary stopgap measure but not a long term solution. My son (and his fiance, an art major in South Carolina) fervently hope the classrooms will be open come fall.

Are they recording the lectures and then editing them? That might make it better and quicker for the lectures. Then a student could go over any part that they might have trouble with. This would also help high school students in smaller schools which don't always have some of the more technical courses. Links could also be provided where students could get more information as well as any pictures and charts needed.

[Canoerebel]

I'm not sure about editing, but I doubt it. The lectures are pretty long and editing takes a long time. They are necessary at the moment, and could have other uses (as you note), but IMO will never come close to the classroom environment. I've been teaching in classrooms for more than 30 years and love it. I can't imagine that remote learning could ever replace the old-fashioned way. It's a necessity (or convenience) of this modern world, but yuck.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

How decisions are made: 3 part time research assistants and a associate professor whip up a Covid model over the weekend that the:



https://cse.umn.edu/college/feature-sto ... -minnesota

Modeling COVID-19 for Minnesota

This is another good article about people with expertise stepping up to work through the day and night to help figure this out. Hats off to them for this work.

I also love that this is going these reserchers a chance to continue to work with new inputs and a better understanding as this develops to fine tune the tools they've created.

That is certainly one way of looking at it.[:)] Another might be to look at the relationship between ICU patients and confirmed cases.

Mid April there were 100 COVID patients in an ICU status with approx. 1,800 confirmed cases. A month later there are 200 COVID patients in ICU with 13,000 confirmed cases. With more testing the relationship between positive cases and ICU cases is likely to drop. Yet they are now projecting an increase to 3,600 ventilator cases over the next 8 weeks.

They are predicting 1700 deaths by end of May, 29,000 deaths for 12 months. They are according to worldometers at 672. Interesting to note, and sad, nursing home deaths account for 80%.

Also interesting that the model assumed an 80% compliance rate with the lockdown, but they just reported that there is about a 36% compliance. How that is measured I don't know...cell phone tracking perhaps? 36 is an awfully specific number.

I will give kudos to MN for releasing the model publicly, but it took them until yesterday to do it..

That's one way, however the most common is just a random sample asking about intentions to comply. If it's as low as 36% - eek!

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not sure about editing, but I doubt it. The lectures are pretty long and editing takes a long time. They are necessary at the moment, and could have other uses (as you note), but IMO will never come close to the classroom environment. I've been teaching in classrooms for more than 30 years and love it. I can't imagine that remote learning could ever replace the old-fashioned way. It's a necessity (or convenience) of this modern world, but yuck.

I think it depends both on the teacher and the learner. I've seen some great online lectures (Tim Pychyl springs immediately to mind), and what is engaging in person should also be engaging online.

To my mind the problem is that you've significantly less control over the learning environment with online classes, and interaction is much more of a challenge.

It is, however, something I would like to see become the norm. Bricks and mortar learning establishments have a role to play but we often forget that not everyone is in a position to attend bricks and mortar establishments.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not sure about editing, but I doubt it. The lectures are pretty long and editing takes a long time. They are necessary at the moment, and could have other uses (as you note), but IMO will never come close to the classroom environment. I've been teaching in classrooms for more than 30 years and love it. I can't imagine that remote learning could ever replace the old-fashioned way. It's a necessity (or convenience) of this modern world, but yuck.

As my Mother use to say to us when we were kids...

"If you want to talk to me, come to where I am. Don't talk to me from another room, we are not Yankees!"

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My son, a senior at the University of Georgia, came home for spring break and simply stayed, since the rest of the term switched to online. Now he's doing a serious May-mester online. I was close enough to overhear the lectures over the computer. Terribly boring, with the instructors teaching in monotones. I commented to that effect. My son agreed, but noted he'd had one of the professors before and that he was a much better lecturer in a classroom.

I know an instructor of art at Emory University. She says it cannot be taught online. Ditto an acquaintance teaching in construction and engineering. Remote teaching in music? Veterinary medicine? Pharmacy?

Remote learning is a necessary stopgap measure but not a long term solution. My son (and his fiance, an art major in South Carolina) fervently hope the classrooms will be open come fall.

Philadelphia announced a 50% attendance level of online High School and lower education despite a huge push of donated chromebooks by concerned parties.

My duaghter is in a PHD program in Biomedical Engineering. She previously worked as a virologist on AIDS. Her education is ongoing, over zoom or the equivalent. When she took a final recently, she has to stand up and rotate her laptop around whenever asked by the Prof...to show no cheating. Below Phd level it is pass/fail, but she is still graded.

She also teaches undergrads online, well everything online. There is not enough time to edit the classes...just free form over Zoom.

[Cap Mandrake]

Even though I am at risk at work I have to admit I am getting damn tired of some slicked-back-hair guy in Sacramento telling me what beach I can walk on.

I am flying up to Bozeman, Montana in 2 weeks for some float trips on the Madison and maybe fish in Yellowstone too. And I'm not going to wear a mask standing hip deep in a river. I predict I will not be arrested in Montana.