Shattered Vow

[BrucePowers]

There are a lot of risks here. No one ever said this game was easy[:D]

[Q-Ball]

Wow, lots of interesting comments:

AUSSIES: Thanks for the comments from the Aussies on RL situation in Darwin. A bit hard on the brits there jrcar, don't you think? Though I don't know. Certainly, they completely lacked invasion shipping, as the UK had a ton of other priorities for it. And given the situation in Europe, I doubt hardly ANY UK replacements were sent to India after 1942, just locals and commonwealth troops. They were in desparate straits in Europe for manpower, and that was #1 priority.

BURMA in GAME: That is very interesting that Miller is abandoning Upper Burma. Very Strange; I suppose the Open terrain is a huge problem, and Lower Burma is more defensible. Still, interesting. He loses the Oil field at Magwe, but maybe you had bombed it to bits anyway. It's not worth repairing for the Japanese. And with an airbase active at Akyab, it's not easy to pull the Oil out. Also a longer trip; for all these reasons, Burmese Oil isn't that important for Japan.

PARAMUSHIRO: What ground troops are up there at present? You dont' want to get alot of ground units destroyed. If you have fragments pulled out, I would let it go. You are in a bad strategic situation; you are "tethered" to a bad base, and your opponent has better control of the sea and air. I would rather fight somewhere that YOU have better air control, like the DEI. You definitely don't want to loiter awhile with CVEs, that's a good way to get them all killed.

Even if you lose it, you will force Miller to keep in large garrisons there, so it's not all bad. On the flip side, he got a bunch of free units when you landed. This whole thing should make Allied players think twice about a landing up there. It could be the purpose of your AAR is only to serve as a warning to others![:'(]

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball
BURMA in GAME: That is very interesting that Miller is abandoning Upper Burma. Very Strange; I suppose the Open terrain is a huge problem, and Lower Burma is more defensible. Still, interesting. He loses the Oil field at Magwe, but maybe you had bombed it to bits anyway. It's not worth repairing for the Japanese. And with an airbase active at Akyab, it's not easy to pull the Oil out. Also a longer trip; for all these reasons, Burmese Oil isn't that important for Japan.

PARAMUSHIRO: What ground troops are up there at present? You dont' want to get alot of ground units destroyed. If you have fragments pulled out, I would let it go. You are in a bad strategic situation; you are "tethered" to a bad base, and your opponent has better control of the sea and air. I would rather fight somewhere that YOU have better air control, like the DEI. You definitely don't want to loiter awhile with CVEs, that's a good way to get them all killed.

Even if you lose it, you will force Miller to keep in large garrisons there, so it's not all bad. On the flip side, he got a bunch of free units when you landed. This whole thing should make Allied players think twice about a landing up there. It could be the purpose of your AAR is only to serve as a warning to others![:'(]

Burma: I halted strategic bombing in CBI early in the game because I asked Miller to stop in China. Honestly, I think Miller's pulling back in Burma because his imagination - stoked in part by Cuttlefish's dilemma in Burma - has spooked him. There was no way the Alleis were going to accomplish anything here. I pulled a General Sherman! [:D]

Paramushiro: I absolutely agree with Q-Ball on this assessment. I think I need to let Para go in the interest of not getting anhiliated while trying to draw an inside strait. Q-Ball, I have pulled out little fragments of the main units at Para, so that much is done. I've already sent this turn, but when I get it back I'm withdrawing my carriers to Dutch Island or perhaps Kodiak to await further developments.

This war will be won in the DEI. That's where I'll attrit Miller for the next year, and then move forward toward the Home Islands.

[Bullwinkle58]

Just my thoughts; sure to be better ones from others.

1. I would leave your CVs out of it. You're right that him not knowing is better for your DEI efforts.
2. I would risk some/all of the CVEs to get supplies in. Their TBs might get some licks in if he catches them with STFs, and you should further attrit his fighter pilot pool. You get lots and lots more CVEs soon.
3. It's into May. You don't have to hold on but to the cold weather boundary.
4. Can you get any Lightnings up to Attu for LRCAP range?
5. Can you spare ten subs for a one-time supply run in there from Pearl? Won't get the airplanes up, but might help the LCUs slow down their deterioration.
6. Use 1-ship resupply convoys, five at a time, simultaneous. He can't get them all unless he fragments his TFs, and that makes them better sub bait. Waypoint some very far north, to the map edge, and then hug the coast southwest-bound, dash into Para. If five doesn't work, try seven. You'll get more AKs pretty soon too.

[Canoerebel]

05/05/43 and 05/06/43

NoPac:  Good suggestions, Bullwinkle, though P-38s don't have the range to fly LRCAP from Attu to Paramushiro.  And I really don't need to hold it until winter sets in - if I could make it until August the Allies would have carrier parity or superiority.  Over the previous two days there wasn't any sign of Japanese combat ships or carriers.  I have a host of supply ships (mainly LSTs and AKLs with a couple of xAKs) well west of Attu Island and just one to two days from Para.  I'm going to send them to Para in small TFs (each TF a single transport or transport plus an SC or KV).  I've also sent four good fighter squadrons to Para to provide CAP.  Finally, I posted CVE Barnes with F4F-4s well to the north to act as "noise" - sometimes the presence of multiple targets can confuse the enemy.  If I get unlucky and Miller chooses the next two days to commit the KB and/or combat ships, I lose the gamble.  If he doesn't, I could put 20,000 supplies ashore.  Meanswhile, the rest of the Allies carriers are pulling back to Dutch Island.  I feel pretty good about the decision to do things this way.

DEI:  A roll of the dice scores.  The B-24 raid on Kendari managed to score one hit on CVL Chiyoda setting her afire.  The real objective was to persuade Miller that Kendari isn't a safe harbor, and he has indeed pulled his carriers out.  I'm standing most of my 4EB down for a few turns.  In three days, I'm planning to unleash well over 100 at some base - perhaps Ambon, Lautem, or Koepang - as a show of strength designed to "impress" Miller with the number of bombers the Allies can put in the air.  I hope that will keep him cautious in the DEI.

Burma:  Prome looks empty, my ground troops are about three or four days march away, and I have the Indian paratroop unit 100% prepped for that target...but they finished the last turn two miles short of Akyab!  Augh!  Two miles!  I'll have to wait a few days and then if Prome remains empty I should be able to take the base.  If so, I think the Allies will make life most unpleasant for the Japanese around Rangoon, Moulmein, Tavoy and Port Blair.

[Bullwinkle58]

I suggested P-38s because you said F4Fs were getting there. I was also envisioning drop tanks. I didn't do a range check on either aircraft. (I'm referring to Post #780.)

I think your plan to try the sneak-in is good. Holding Para. isn't as important as pinning him down up there as long as possible, although holding for LBA use would be great too.

[Rob Brennan UK]

Just a quickie Conoerebel , I've just caught up and you were worried about over stacking Paramashiro. IIRC flying boats (that you counted towards groups) only count as one group if you have an AV/AVD support ship in port. so you could operate 3 PBY's happily without fear of overstacking the airfields.

PS .. i may be wrong about needing an AV/AVD type and floats just count as one anyway, but the added support from them alieviates the man AV support quite a bit in medium sized fields.

i'll go back to lurking now.

[DW]

I think everyone would agree that the longer Paramushiro-jima holds out the better.

You've been quite clear in your AAR as to your quandary.  You can't run in supplies without air cover and you don't want to provide air cover because it would put your carriers at risk to KB.

I agree.  This isn't the time to place your carriers at risk.

If you're not going to try and run in a resupply convoy, then you don't really need to know where Japanese naval assets are located.  If you don't need to know where Japanese naval assets are located, then you don't need your PBYs flying naval search.

So, put every flying boat you can get your hands on to flying in supplies to Paramushiro-jima.

Strip them away from any place on the map where you could substitute long range LBA to provide naval search and move them north.  I don't know how many squadrons of PBYs you have on the map, but I would think you've quite a few.  All those planes flying in supplies will add up quicker than you think.

If you can get your airfield into shape, and if they have the range, get some Liberators pulling the same duty.  The same with any C-46s or C-47s you might have if they also have the range.

As another poster suggested, perhaps get some of your subs in on the act.  Do you have any APDs that could run in, dump off supplies and get out before Miller can react?  Perhaps some of those small fast 2000 ton APs (or were they AKs?) that I used to use in WITP?  They can both cover the distance and unload quickly.  Maybe you can get the two day turn thing working for you in this respect to get them in and out before Miller knows what happened.

And, as you don't think you can use your carriers in the north, move them out.  There's no sense in keeping them there if you can't risk them.  Are they due for upgrades?  If so, get them done.  Or, perhaps move them back down to the DEI and try and get a shot at mini KB.  Or, just keep them out of sight as you have been doing.

But, I don't think you should leave Paramushiro to wither on the vine, so to speak.  Move heaven and hell to get supplies in.

[Canoerebel]

Latest email from Miller:  "I know from our last game that you are a master when it comes to deception, however your fake invasion of New Guinea is fooling nobody."
 
Wow, Miller is completely misreading the strategic situation if he thinks the Allied landings at Kaimana on New Guinea's southwest coast is fake.  The sooner I can turn that dot hex into a level five port/level eight airifeld the sooner the Allies take control of western New Guinea and the Moluccas. 

[witpqs]

Maybe it's counter-deception from Miller? Miller he plans to hit you hard there and wants you to be unready?

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Maybe it's counter-deception from Miller? Miller he plans to hit you hard there and wants you to be unready?

I'm ALL about counter-deception! Go Mr. Miller. BANZAI!!!

Sorry about my JFB-ness.

Dan,

As you move about in the North, why not use your CVE to protect the convoys? If they are sunk--WHO CARES?! Protect your CVs and use your CVEs to damage the Japanese Naval Air Groups.

My .02...

[Canoerebel]

It isn't counter-deception.  He thinks the New Guinea landings are a ruse. He couldn't be more wrong.

John, when the Allied player loses four CVs in '42, the CVEs can become essential to survival.  I have nine on the board now - that means with CVEs alone I can put 250 aircraft in a hex.  Team them with CVs and it's a potent package.  I understand what you mean - I can sea how sacrificing CVEs to save Para would make perfect sense.  What I DON'T want to do is sacrifice CVEs and lose Para anyhow.

The Allies get Essex this month, three fleet CVs in July, and at least one CVL by July.  If I'm patient and don't fritter my carriers away, the Allies will have a force to reckon with come August.

[Canoerebel]

05/07/43 and 05/08/43

Email Communications:  Following that cryptic email comment, I asked Miller what he thought I was up to and this was his reply:  "Well I think your main thrust will be in the DEI, just like our last game."  He's right on target with that, but apparently he isn't connecting how a big base on New Guinea's southwestern end is a big part of the eastern DEI.

NoPac:  I was wondering where the Japanese subs had gone to?  Well, they were all parked off the Kamchatka coast, so my transport TFs ran into a wolfpack:  I-173 got AKL Maple, I-180 got AKL Susana and LST 454, I-165 got an xAK; I-176 got LST 469; and I-22 got xAK Idaho.  Mind you, most of these ships had an ASW escort, but Allied ASW doesn't do much in this game.  Most of the surviving ships made it to Para, but had barely begun unloading by the end of the two-day turn.  I was lucky that Miller had his Helens set to hit Para's airfield (for some reason none of my fighters flew CAP on the first day, but about 12 got up the second; I have no idea why).  Tomorrow the Helens will be hunting ships, so I don't expect to get much in the way of supplies unloaded.  On a more positive note, this keeps Miller's focus on Paramushiro and I sure like having his subs way off at Kamchatka.

DEI:  The big 4EB raid is set to hit Koepang tomorrow.  Recon shows 24 aicraft (probably patrol) and an AMC in port.  The raid's primary purpose is to give Miller a healthy respect for the number of 4EB the Allies can put in the air.  Bathhust Island's airbase goes to level five tomorrow.  Babar is at two.  Saumlaki is at three and moving slowly.  Aru and Taberfane remain at one.  Kaimana on the New Guinea coast is 10% to both level one for both port and airfield.

Akyab:  50th Indian Paratroops are set to assault Prome tomorrow.  I believe this base is vacant, which amazes me.  Miller has 24 units at Rangoon and many more fleeing that way from Miektila.  If he realized he was running from a bunch of villagers banging pots and beating sticks together he'd be furious.  If I can seize Prome, secure it, and build the airfield, the Japanese will have trouble in the Rangoon vicinity.

[JeffroK]

IFF you have ecided to assume the loss of Paramushiro it becomes more important that it perform a task.

Looks like Miller has sent a substatial sub force there, the fact he got a convoy may make him think you are very serious about holding the place, this drwas heat off your DEI thrust.

In my game against Admiral Abe Imamura I found it easy for they japanese to interdict shipping into Darwin from east and west. Betty regularly hit ships in Broome and rounding Cape York. I solved this by posting some Buff's to Broome and they provided convoy escort(they have good range for this) I also retook Cocos/Keeling Is, this provides cover for convoys from Colombo/Capetown as well as recce into Java/Sumatra.

Occupying it also stops japan from posting Betty or Emily there!

Keep your chin up, you are learning how it plays out just like IRL rather than having played the game to death and know all of the tricks.

[Q-Ball]

Are you using restricted units in Burma, or no?

In my game vs. Cuttlefish, I did initially, I just wasn't thinking they should stay in India. As I advanced, I realized that they were WAY too powerful, and after some research said "Oh, those probably should have to stay in India". I am now pulling all of them out.

If you are doing this with Non-Restricted units, I can't beleive Miller is leaving like that. 24 units in Rangoon? They can't stay there; Rangoon can be isolated by taking Pegu.

If he isn't making a stand in Burma, is he moving all the way back to Moulmein and Siam?

Post a map of Burma when you get a chance, please....

[Canoerebel]

I'll post a map of Burma tonight or tomorrow.
 
I am NOT using restricted units in Burma (except I did use them against Akyab, but Akyab is connected by road only to India, so I felt that was legit).  All units advancing toward Prome are either unrestricted or have been "bought" with political points.
 
I have not told Miller I was restricting myself in this way.  In part, I think it accurately reflects the uncertainties of war.  He's not exactly certain of what he's facing and, as a result, he's ended up evaluating the threat about as accurately as the Pinkerton men did in the Civil War.

[Canoerebel]

The situation in Burma in mid-May 1943 (note: the Allies just took Prome).

[jrcar]

Maybe a bit harsh, but from what I've read the Bits in India were happy to largely do the status quo, and weren't going to risk anymore. I certainly don't blame them for that... but

IMHO if they had had different leadership or intent then they could have made their own shipping (India has had decent ship yards for a LONG time) and if that had of been less risk adverse (again I don't blame them for that, considering what had gone before, and the focus on Europe, and the basically what you have is it from the higher command), then they could have done things more aggresively.

So they did things for good reasons during the war, but those reasons (IMHO) were not that valid so having the Brits conduct amphib ops in the Indian Ocean area is feasible, if you consider the implications of what a bad loss means (the gutting of units that will probably NEVER refill).

That was their quandry, they knew they had one shot, if they lost it then they were in trouble again... so they kept that shot, and the fleet, as a force in being. A cautious approach that largely worked, but one that we don't have to follow

Cheers
Rob

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Wow, lots of interesting comments:

AUSSIES: Thanks for the comments from the Aussies on RL situation in Darwin. A bit hard on the brits there jrcar, don't you think? Though I don't know. Certainly, they completely lacked invasion shipping, as the UK had a ton of other priorities for it. And given the situation in Europe, I doubt hardly ANY UK replacements were sent to India after 1942, just locals and commonwealth troops. They were in desparate straits in Europe for manpower, and that was #1 priority.

[janh]

My preference would be to hold on to Paramushiro.   Have you gotten any intelligence as to a possible counter-invasion?

Making some show with a carrier group in the Solomons or somewhere might be a worthy thing to keep him guess.  If I'd interpret his comments, I say he doesn't quite know what is going on presently, but tries to get some "email response" out of you that can help him evaluate the seriousness of the threats in DEI and New Guinea.   It would look to me like your opponent is a bit paralysed right now and ceding the book to you since he would like to stage something, but knows the risk running into your still potent carrier force.  As Japanese, I'd as quickly as possible "clear" the threat to the Kuriles, and the "safest" time window is already past.  Another 2 months, and you'll have plenty of naval air platforms, and almost all of your BB's back.

I think relocating some fragments from the units in Para is fine.  But I'd indeed try to resupply them (the "Washington Express"...) and even get the airbase back up until you get the carriers.  Even use a couple of CVE for protection.  You'll get plenty of those in the next two years anyway -- at worst, loosing them now will cause you a 3-4 months delay.  But maybe they'll get lucky and score a hit.

The war will be won in the DEI, but it will be won much cheaper if you don't allow him to build centers of gravity, and gain local initiative.  Any plane, man and ship you destroy up there, and any week you hold out on Para, will be well worth it on the long run.   And I am really not convinced you will loose Para if you contest him.  Just don't let him concentrate.  He will probably try to pull a Lee (at Chancellorsville) or a Mannstein and temporarely strip one AO to hit you with superior forces in another, and then relocate.  The Germans mastered this operational technique in WW2 and showed how you can still keep a 4:1 or 5:1 superiority at bay for a considerable while.  Don't allow him that.

[Canoerebel]

5/9/43 and 5/10/43
 
NoPac:  A Japanese combat TF finished off a bunch of the transports at Paramushiro.  A little supply got ashore, but not much.  This reinforces the impression I've had that it will be nearly impossible to resupply Para.  I'm dedicating more patrol aircraft and subs to carry supply, but that'll be about it.  I am keeping the carriers in NoPac for awhile just in case Miller sends the KB down to the DEI.

DEI:  It appears that the Mini-KB is heading toward the eastern DEI - patrol aircraft sighted carriers SE of Kendari on a easterly heading.  Could be a raid; could possibly be providing cover for some kind of counter-invasion.  I've put all of Darwin's 4EB on naval strike and have adjusted CAP percentage for fighters at Darwin, Saumlaki, Bathhurst Island and Babar Island.

Burma:  Indian paratroops take the vacant town of Prome.  The precipitous Japanese retreat to Rangoon continues.  The Allies will try to fortify Prome and build up it's airfield.

China:  Miller might be pulling back from Changteh; he's moved on Hengyang, but he's not going to do any better there than he's done at Changsha and Changteh.  Too easy for the Allies to shuttle troops over interior lines, and with our artillery house rule in effect well-entrenched Chinese units do okay.

Allied Carriers:  The thought of the Allied carriers set to arrive over the next three months is almost intoxicating.