cap_and_gown(j) v witpqs(a) - no witpqs

[Canoerebel]

As an Allied player, my impression is that this is a decisive Japanese victory in all senses of the word. The damage inflicted was one-sided and great. Also, Allied damage control isn't nearly as robust in the game as I think some folks are making it out to be. As others have noted, the pilot losses will have little impact on Japan. This was a huge Japanese victory - one of the biggest I've ever seen in AE if not the biggest.

[veji1]

Janh to achieve a warchanger for japan against a half competent allied player is impossible. Here there are 4 CVs dead for sure, possibly 1 to 3 more... 3 CVLS are dead and 6 CVEs as well... add to that 2 BBs minimum.. All this for no CVs or CVLs lost on japanese side so far, give or take one or two in case subs pull a nasty.

Now yes he may hae get a bigger victory, killing 2 or 3 CVs and 2 or 3 BBs more. But by going in the zone between Kusae and Ponape, he would have been very vulnerable to LBA attacks from Kusae and the Marshalls, Surface intercepts, Subs and then the turn after possibly LBA attacks from Ponape as well. All of this with very tired pilots and lots of damaged planes and CVs... With the frailty of japanese CVs, that could have easily led him to lose a fair number of flattops ( 2-4 being a real possibility). Now the trade off is quite significant.. The KB will be almost at full readyness in 6 weeks, with just a couple of flattops really injured. For the allies, the 3 or 4 CVs that survive are badly damaged and will probably need an extensive yard time. I believe therefore that the gain available in going for it was a lot less than you thought.

[Chickenboy]

Major victory.  Nicely done, CNG.
 
What are the next plans for that little pustule in your interior lines now?  The island formerly known as "Ponape"?

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: janh

ORIGINAL: castor troy

Castor, see above. To me it presently looks more like a major tactical victory, and several ships may be out for several months. Perhaps C&G can exploited this success now and make it a strategic victory, a "war-changer".

After all, the degree to which this is a victory will lastly be defined by the capabilities that witpqs and C&G still have left, and how the game will continue now. It could be possible that witpqs will be defeated by auto-victory conditions if C&G can exploit his situation now, while witqs is ripped of the initiative. Then, of course, it also will be a strategic victory.

yeah, sorry. Answered to your first post and just read the next one after answering the first one.

[Canoerebel]

I don't know what the point situation is, but I cannot believe there would be even a remote chance of a Japanese auto victory in late October of 1943.

I also can't see any way to construe this other than as a major IJ strategic victory. I'm not sure what "war changer" means - I doubt anything could change the outcome of the war once the auto-victory opportunity passes, but I'll guarantee this seriously changes how the war proceeds for the next nine months to year, maybe longer.

[veji1]

Indeed, by "war changer" I meant a victory such that the USN is permanently crippled and therefore, even with submarine doing there job, Japan as an island couldn't be threatened ever, or at least before soviet activation. But this would require something like 3 major naval victories for Japan in CV vs CV battles... Close to impossible.

This is at this stage the very best position imaginable for a japanese player. This victory gives ample time for the japanese to fortify their defenses and be able to accomodate the massive june 44 reinforcements while under limited pressure from the allies (basically only the Burma theater...).

[CapAndGown]

Well, we will see how this turns out in the long run. I do feel we have severely blunted the allied spear head and I plan on running deep interdiction raids with my superior carrier force as soon as possible.

I will say, though, that it will take quite some time to make up the losses. For torpedo bombers I should be OK if I downgrade some Jill units to Kates. I have 200+ Kates in the pool, but only 62 B6N2 and 34 B6N1. For dive bombers (which I really like because they seem to get more hits) I am in trouble. I have 95 Judy's in the pool by need 245 reinforcements. And I can't downgrade to Vals since I had already upgraded everyone to Judy's, meaning the Vals were recycled. Zero's are not a problem, though I will probably need to downgrade some from more advanced models. I am not sure on the pilot situation yet. The Navy has 450 pilots in reserve, so we are probably somewhat OK. I also have about 80 TRACOM Pilots for the Navy, and I may draw on those guys. But we will never have the quality edge we enjoyed in this battle again. As far as skills and experience, the USN and IJN will be fighting on even ground, which is a loser for the IJN.

My estimates for allied shipping losses are
CVs Enterprise, Saratoga, Wasp, Lexington and probably Bunker Hill
CVLs Independence, Cowpens
CVE Breton, Copahee, Santee, Corregidor, Anzio, Natoma Bay, Altamaha, Nassau
BBs South Dakota, Indiana and 2 of Oklahoma, Colorado, West Virginia
7xDD
1xDMS
1xDE
1xAKA

This would leave the allies with 5-6 CV, with only one undamaged, and several severely damaged; 2 CVL both with some degree of damage, though the Princeton may be fixed shortly; and 2 CVE. CVE's though are a) plentiful; but b) very, very poor carriers.

Over the course of the last three days, the Japanese score has shot up by 3,752 points, of which 659 points is due to allied plane losses and base point changes, leaving 3096 points for ships.

[veji1]

well pretty impressive anyway... Now to make sure your ships survive, and then what next ?

[krupp_88mm]

if you can send some subs to watch the entrances to the major repair yards, thats a lot of ships to repair, maybe youll bag one or at least see the cripples going in and help confirm what youve sunk

[CapAndGown]

I just realized it was possible for third parties to view the replays of the battles fought in this AAR, so I am providing a link to the combat replays for the first two days of the Battle of Ponape. Many readers of this AAR may find it interesting to actually see what the condition the ships being bombed are in both before, during and after the airstrikes.

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=2603535

[CapAndGown]

I finally finished issuing orders for next turn. In looking at the KB, I saw the idiots decided to refuel. Doh! So now the cripples will still be in range of Ponape next turn, covered by the rest of the KB. Although the allies don't have aviation support on Ponape yet, they may still fly in fighters and dive bombers anyway since witpqs has shown his willingness to move in aviation ahead of the support before. To fend off this threat, I am sending 1 TF with 1 BB, 2xCA, 1xCL and 9xDD to bombard the place tonight. I am also moving another BB TF into range to hit the place tomorrow. This other bombardment TF will provide an additional target for any Ponape based bombers besides the KB. We really need to stay on our toes here to keep Ponape suppressed. I imagine the allies will be flying in aviation support starting tomorrow. I would like to contest that, but I am afraid trying to LRCAP a base with Corsairs is a losing proposition.

At any rate, this battle is still not quite over. I need to get the KB out of LBA range of Ponape and then get clear of the subs, then it is off to the Home Islands for the cripples while the rest of the KB starts to restock and rearm, probably in the Mariana's.

[CapAndGown]

Oct. 29, 1943

As the KB makes it way back to port to rearm, refit and repair, I have been trying to prevent the airfield at Ponape from being activated. Unfortunately, I am not allowed to tell my bombardment groups what they should be firing at. Instead, that is left to the AI to decide, which, according the AFBs, is the way it should be because after all the Japanese navy was incapable of hitting anything with it ships. I suppose this works both ways, except the allies have their "destroy button" (kinda like Office Depot's "easy button") that they push and hundreds of 4E bombers fly in and destroy everything in sight and so never need to shut down an airfield using their navy. So for two turns now, and for three different bombardment groups, I have been totally unable to even so much as scratch the airfield at Ponape. Instead, all my ship captains happily lay down their artillery on the allied ground units. So AFBs, a word advice: if you find your self in a Guadacanal situation, all you need to do to defend your airfield is have a division or two worth of land troops at the base and the Japanese will never even bother shooting at the airfield.

Well, at least this turn one of TFs was able to break up an allied mining attempt:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Ponape at 119,113, Range 5,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
BB Nagato, Shell hits 3
BB Mutsu, Shell hits 1
CL Sendai
DD Kishinami
DD Okinami
DD Shiratsuyu
DD Shigure
DD Murasame
DD Harusame
DD Yudachi, Shell hits 1
DD Samidare

Allied Ships
DM Gamble, Shell hits 2
DM Montgomery, Shell hits 4, and is sunk
DM Ramsay, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
DM Breese, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DM Tracy, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
DM Preble, Shell hits 5, and is sunk
DM Pruitt
DM Sicard, Shell hits 3

Look at this:
Reduced sighting due to 0% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Overcast Conditions and 0% moonlight: 4,000 yards

So why is this?
CL Sendai engages DM Sicard at 5,000 yards
Range increases to 6,000 yards
shoot . . . shoot . . . shoot
Range increases to 8,000 yards
shoot . . . shoot . . . shoot
Range increases to 12,000 yards
shoot . . . shoot . . . shoot

I suppose they could be shooting at each others' muzzle flashes. [&:]

Oh well. Still need to get the KB past the subs, back home, reloaded, and then it is hunting we go. Already the "slow KB" (CVEs, Hiyo, Ryuho) are heading to Sorebaja in preparation for hunting in the Indian Ocean.

Our doctrine now is to fight enemy carriers at any and every opportunity. No more hiding. If they show up, we fight. Reaction is going to be set to 6. We have at least parity and likely superiority. We need not shy away from any fights. Any even exchanges right now will mean the allies will be running a carrier deficit all the way into 1945. So the main KB is going to sit on the allied LOC between PH and the Marshalls and blockade those islands until the allies come out to try to open up their supply lines. Time for some serious tanker support.

[Xxzard]

Our doctrine now is to fight enemy carriers at any and every opportunity. No more hiding. If they show up, we fight. Reaction is going to be set to 6. We have at least parity and likely superiority. We need not shy away from any fights. Any even exchanges right now will mean the allies will be running a carrier deficit all the way into 1945. So the main KB is going to sit on the allied LOC between PH and the Marshalls and blockade those islands until the allies come out to try to open up their supply lines.

Direct confrontation eh? It could help you greatly with the Marshall's operations, but if there is a carrier clash, I would still be very worried about losing ships. The Allied air strike gets through with such ease. But by all means, do what you have to do.

[PaxMondo]

Thanks for sharing the replays.  VERY interesting. 

[Djordje]

I am not sure seeking direct confrontation with USN CVs is good idea. While I agree you should do some raiding patrols in the following month or two after that you should maybe consider reverting to the "Fleet in being" tactic. If you manage to keep your CVs safe your opponent would have to be very careful with his future operations, to avoid another battle like one you just had. Having 20 USN CVs covering just one landing at a time will take too long for him to even get close to Japan anytime before mid 1945.

[rader]

I htink blockading the Marshalls with your CVs is a fantastic idea! You must have superiority now for at least several months. Make his troops starve!

[CapAndGown]

Oct. 31, 1943

The sound of another sub sinking this turn, not mine.

I sent a cruiser force to bombard Ponape. Forgot to set "retirement allowed" so they were still there during the day phase. [X(] Fortunately, the allies did not attack. They seem more intent on defense now than attacks.

As in the previous 3 bombardments, the airfield was not touched while the ships concentrated on shooting at the land units there. This has risen to the level of a bug now and I am going to have to report it no matter what the AFBs say. Basically, this inability to specify a target for bombardment forces makes the entire Guadacanal campaign look silly.

The Tojo IIc became available today. I will be cranking out this model in very large numbers: 240 a month, 8 per day. Finally, a fighter with decent speed, decent armament (though not the best), OK durability, a great service rating, and armor. It may not be as good as the allied planes, but at least it should put in a better performance than anything I have had up to this point.

[veji1]

So what happens now, have you had time to think through your strategy for the next few months ? What is the situation in areas where the Allies could still apply strong pressure with a combined land force / LBA offensive ?

[CapAndGown]

Nov. 6, 1943

Today saw the last of the damaged carriers make port in the Home Islands. So the battle of Ponape did not cost us any ships, not even any subs. (assuming nobody blows up while under repair.) Several of the carriers will be out of action for a while. Shokaku looks like she will need 2 months in dry dock. I am going to let most of the others fix up their sys damage before putting them in dry dock. The Shoho is going to take some time to fix. The Junyo is in the repair yard at Tokyo.

My other carriers have been restocking with planes and pilots. Unfortunately, I have run through my reserves of both. The only pilots left if the IJN pilot pool are patrol and transport reserves. All the fighter and bomber pilots, even some not so good ones, have been doled out to the carrier squadrons. And this does not even touch the squadrons on the damaged carriers which I have not yet begun to fill out. It looks like I am going to have to take some front line squadrons and turn them into a training squadrons while their veteran pilots are put into the pool for use by the carrier squadrons.

Not only pilots, but plane reserves have been exhausted. This is not so bad for TBs, since I can use Kates if I get desperate. But I have totally run out of DBs without even being able to fill out the squadrons on my undamaged carriers. So it looks like we are going to have to put to sea with less than full deck loads.

The carriers begin their next mission starting tomorrow. One contingent, made up of 5 Unryu's, will sail tomorrow for Marcus Island and then past Wake to a position between Johnston Island and the Marshalls. I expect that another group of carriers, including the Soryu/Hiryu and Akagi/Kaga pairs, as well as the Zuiho and Ryujo will be able to sail the day after to join up with the Unryu's. The goal here is to interdict the supply lines between Hawaii and the Marshalls. I am hoping that fuel/supply usage by the allies in the Marshalls is very high and requires a constant input of new stocks. Interdicting these supply lines can then slow down an allied build up here. It may also bring out the allied carriers. At most I would expect to face the equivalent of 5-6 fleet CVs (the Intrepid arrives in December and at least 3 CVLs can be added to the allied OOB between Oct. and Dec.). I believe our 9 CVs and 2 CVLs could take them on and at least manage a draw.

I am also prepping some ground units for an invasion of Johnston Island. It is about time the allies started looking over their shoulders and securing their rear areas instead of concentrating everything up front. (I probably should start prepping folk for Baker Island as well.) An operation against Johnston would enhance my attempt to interdict allied LOC between Hawaii and the Marshalls by providing a search base for the IJN while denying it to the USN.

The slow carriers, including the Hiyo, Ryuho, and CVEs are now at Sorebaja and are restocking. I am afraid I do not have enough planes to completely restock all of them, so at least one CVE will lay up at Sorebaja. The rest of the group will head off into the Indian Ocean. Their job will be to interdict allied supply lines between Australia and Capetown.

The allies have been building up in the Arufura Sea. It seems to me that their bombing of the bases of northern New Guinea has had as its objective suppressing any Japanese attempts to interfere with shipping moving through the Torres Strait. I am now starting to get significant ground reinforcements. Most of them are destined for bases in the eastern DEI. It looks to me like the allies may be contemplating a thrust through this region as one of the main spearheads. Indeed, a move into this region looks even more likely now that the CentPac thrust has received something of a setback.

Speaking of which, the allies continue to reinforce Ponape and there is not much I can do about it. I have been sending in bombardment forces almost every night, but none of them are able to actually hit the airfield. Instead, they shoot at the ground units. In addition, the allies have an unlimited number of barges and PTs they can throw into this effort and eventually, my forces would be worn down by sys damage, if nothing else. This is another reason to try to interdict the allied LOC to the Marshalls, since a head on effort aimed at slowing down the build up of Ponape seems doomed to failure.

[veji1]

Pretty impressive en result then ! I wonder what is the end result of interdicting his supply line to the Marshalls. Yes he might not be able to developp the area for a while for lack of supplies, but his troops won't starve, he certainly has enough for that. All he will have to do is wait until he has a strong enough USN to go for a big resupply run. Basically that means that he can resupply again when he is strong enough to go on the offensive again in the area... Which might mean that you are blockading him at a time when he wouldn't want to venture there anyway. Is that the best use of your KB dominance ? Just wondering..