The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[Miller]

Going from memory I dont think Japan has many land based Kate and Val units at this stage of the game, certainly not enough to more than half fill the KB.

Another thing is IF these are mainly land based "Carrier capable" units he is employing from the KB, what is he using to train his next generation of pilots back home???

Assuming GreyJoy manages to get the bulk of his units back to Karachi (Say 5000AV), how on earth can Rader ever hope to capture it?

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

witpqs, Andy,
No, Greyjoy was very specific that he was penny-packeting his forces out in order for them to be defeated piecemeal. I've asked about it repeatedly ( as have some others ) but the dispositions remain.


This would, IMO, be the best route for the IJA to take:

1. Red = STrategic railing supported by para drops.
Small forces offshoot westward to take Delhi and other roads heading west in order to prevent Allied troops from cutting the LOCs.


2. Green = line of march ( not strategic movement ) which dislocates ALL Allied defences outside of Karachi and renders them useless. Without actually having to engage any of the defences Greyjoy has built up the Japanese can easily arrive in Karachi. It also forces the Allies to shock attack across a river to get back to Karachi - which will destroy them as a combat capable force ere they reach it.


As re: Rader. I truly don't think we need to worry too much about anything sneaky similar to what I've posted above/below. I think that the "hey diddle, diddle, right up the middle" approach we see is what we're getting. The indirect approach would negate positions which Rader will bypass but would negate them much more cheaply and keep more of his combat power available at the tip. I don't think he has done the right analysis here though so he won't see that. I think Greyjoy's analysis is even more spotty so it'll still work out reasonably well for Rader - although he hasn't the killer instinct needed to guarantee a victory here.

Thx Nemo. I've already stated that he had 3 different possible advancing vectors. Probably the one you analyzed is the best choice for him. However i do think that he wants to get first a decent AF closer to my defensive positions (in order to be able to put his Tojos in the arena) and that's why i think he wants to march to Jodpur first. Having Jopur first will give him the chance of advancing along the route you suggested without caring about the threat posed by my bombers on his advancing columns.
My defences are not "penny-packeted" (don't know what it means exactly but i guess is something like "divided into pieces")...at least i don't see this in that way. I have 3 strongholds, all of them connected by railways. I can easily move inside my defensive perimeter according to his moves but i don't want to give him the advantage of knowing what i'll be doing. Karachi is well defended and all my troops are fully prepped for it. So, if i see him coming en masse with an allmighty army with the risk of being cut out from Karachi, be sure that i will run for it and this time he won't have the chance of cutting my retreat path. But before doing that i want to keep my mobility (interior lines) as long as possible, so to be able to be flexible to any possible changement of the situation. Digging right now everything in Karachi won't change anything strategically. Karachi forts are already building fast enough, having there all my engeneers (8 and 20% right now) and the supplies are already stocked there, so that's why i'm not changing my defensive positions....
I think these are sound motivations...for sure i may be wrong but i don't see any real flaw in this strategical defensive plan.
If Rader makes a mistake in his advance i want to be able to exploit it. And this disposition of my troops is exactly motivated by that. If he doesn't cover his flanks correctly i could (that doesn't mean i WILL...but it's a chance i have and have to consider it) use Hyderabad and his fortifications as a fixed strongpoints and rotate on his right flank using my armoured units.... if i dig in Karachi i will spoil immediately any chance like this one of turning the cards...
Off course, if i see that he advances with good disposition and under a tremendous air umbrella, i'll be the first one who recognize the need to rush back to Karachi and wait for the final siege.

Hope this clarifies my strategical POV

Thanks again

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Miller

Going from memory I dont think Japan has many land based Kate and Val units at this stage of the game, certainly not enough to more than half fill the KB.

Another thing is IF these are mainly land based "Carrier capable" units he is employing from the KB, what is he using to train his next generation of pilots back home???

Assuming GreyJoy manages to get the bulk of his units back to Karachi (Say 5000AV), how on earth can Rader ever hope to capture it?

with the last Bde arrived the amount of AVs that can sit into Karachi si now 6500.

And no, i have no intel about the fact that those Kate and Vals or Zeros were the original pre-war pilots...but i think there's, statistically speaking, a little chance that Rader is using only his carrier capable aircrafts...he's using so many daitais of zeros from Surat that i really do think he's sending almost the 80% of his global fighter forces into this meatgrinder.

Will surely be interesting to see how much Japan, after the fall of India, will be hurt by this long and bloody campaign and how his air forces will be able to resume their supremacy in the rest of the map!

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Andy Mac

Thats a damned slow route he has chosen for his main Line of Advance - suspiciously slow........

Even armour will take weeks to cross that desert out of strat mode and strat mode cannot be used if you hold Hyderabad - thats a mix of Desert (fast) and Desert (Rough) VERY SLOW hexes this looks like a bluff to be

Andy, that's exactly why i chose to defend Jodpur, Hyderabad and Karachi. Having Jodpur is essential for him in order to estabilish a strong AF closer to Karachi. At the same time he cannot march from Jodpur directly to Hyderabad and Karachi so the presence of a strong allied garrison at Jodpur will force him to invest this location first, thus slowing down the advance to the main objective (Karachi)

[terje439]

I agree with what was said about GreyJoy being the one that should play it, and also that alot of good avdice has been offered here.

What I want to ask GreyJoy is this;
you have forces present in Jodpur to defend that base, relying on your railroads to get you out when the time comes.
What will you do if the enemy goes up to Jodpur and then starts to make flanking moves on the city towards the "west"?
By making such a move your opponent will force one of two conditions on you;
-keep your troops in Jodpur and let them die there, or
-use the railroads to move out before he has even entered the city

Is this something you keep in mind?


Terje

[DOCUP]

Whats Oz look like? Do you control the norther part? How does the rest of the map look also?

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: terje439

I agree with what was said about GreyJoy being the one that should play it, and also that alot of good avdice has been offered here.

What I want to ask GreyJoy is this;
you have forces present in Jodpur to defend that base, relying on your railroads to get you out when the time comes.
What will you do if the enemy goes up to Jodpur and then starts to make flanking moves on the city towards the "west"?
By making such a move your opponent will force one of two conditions on you;
-keep your troops in Jodpur and let them die there, or
-use the railroads to move out before he has even entered the city

Is this something you keep in mind?


Terje

In that case i will evacuate only the precious units (Indian bdes) and leave the rest there to sacrify themself behind the walls (6 forts) slowing down the enemy advance. however this time i don't think he'll try to flank...not here at least!

thx for your support since the first days terje[:)]

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: DOCUP

Whats Oz look like? Do you control the norther part? How does the rest of the map look also?

Northern Oz is back in my hands after the inital japanese conquest but he strongly controls Timor (with an Air HQ and an Army HQ present there i think he's ready to move his Netties to smash any attempt of mine) and the islands north of Darwin...and considering that northern Oz can be supplied only by sea that leads to a statlemate untill i can think about an amphib operation there

The rest of the map will be posted later with a screenshot mate...[;)]

[GreyJoy]

Cannot make a screenshot right now, howver basically nothing changed during the last 5 months.
Japan has conquered the whole China but Chungking, India (well you know) and the whole DEI-SRA-BURMA-MALAYA (having recently cleared Manila). In the pacific the whole NG, Solomons and New Heb. are under japanese control, along with the Gilberts/Marshalls, Marcus and Wake Island.
The only ground captured back is in the Aleutinas, where Japan, after the initial conquest, has abbandoned everything.

For what i can tell from the little info gathered by the intelligence, the main Rader's base in the Pacific is Saipan, while Timor is for sure well fortified (i've seen intel about 2 different eng regiments there, along with an air HQ)

[GreyJoy]

Concerning the advises given, guys, i am absolutely grateful for every single of them and i thank every one of you that cared to drop a line here giving me suggestions, counseils, warnings or just a supporting word.

[GreyJoy]

Concerning Oz, the situation is pretty good i'd say.
After the patch i was able to swicth off the Hi and then, following the suggestion made by many of you(among them i remember NY59Giants), i started to build up a chain of convoys between East Cost, Cape Town, Perth(or Adelaide) to bring to Oz supplies and, above all, fuel.
Along with that to Oz have been shipped some american units (a division, a couple of regiments, 3 base forces, and lots of arty, engeneers and AAA units) in order to help securing it from a possible invasion.
All the native units have been moved back to the Triangle Brisbane-Melbourne-Sydney, where they started to build and fortify bases and to mass supplies and fuel.
Some squadrons of bombers and fighters have been also shipped from the US to Oz in order to give to the continent a decent power. The only thing that in Oz is missing is a decent naval force.

[Erkki]

Have you thought about attacking the Kido Butai with your 4Es?

I mean, the goal is not to hurt the carriers even if hits are preferable, but to kill even more of his Zeroes. Naval attack at 20 or 25kft, theres 100% chance of him having Zeroes in the CAP, and AAA most likely wont damage more than a 1-2 bombers. full KB fighter force, 40% CAP 60% escorts means he will have max 120, but now probably only around 40 Zeroes vs. your 50-60(?) bombers, he WILL lose more Zeroes and even more of his elite pilots than you do your 4Es. I know the bombers are valuable, but thats one way to bring your bombers in the air superiority battle without getting them chewed up by flak bombing ampty air fields or Ki-45 protected troops. You can also do that from Karachi and target is pretty close... See if his poker face holds seeing half a hundred 4Es fly over his most important assets. [;)]

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Erkki

Have you thought about attacking the Kido Butai with your 4Es?

I mean, the goal is not to hurt the carriers even if hits are preferable, but to kill even more of his Zeroes. Naval attack at 20 or 25kft, theres 100% chance of him having Zeroes in the CAP, and AAA most likely wont damage more than a 1-2 bombers. full KB fighter force, 40% CAP 60% escorts means he will have max 120, but now probably only around 40 Zeroes vs. your 50-60(?) bombers, he WILL lose more Zeroes and even more of his elite pilots than you do your 4Es. I know the bombers are valuable, but thats one way to bring your bombers in the air superiority battle without getting them chewed up by flak bombing ampty air fields or Ki-45 protected troops. You can also do that from Karachi and target is pretty close... See if his poker face holds seeing half a hundred 4Es fly over his most important assets. [;)]

Thx Erkki but we have an HR saying 4Es on Naval attack are allowed only if composed by ONE single squadron and with alt max 15k... so i think it's just an Heil Mary option at the moment also because the 4Es pilots are not trained for naval attack...

[Erkki]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: Erkki

Have you thought about attacking the Kido Butai with your 4Es?

I mean, the goal is not to hurt the carriers even if hits are preferable, but to kill even more of his Zeroes. Naval attack at 20 or 25kft, theres 100% chance of him having Zeroes in the CAP, and AAA most likely wont damage more than a 1-2 bombers. full KB fighter force, 40% CAP 60% escorts means he will have max 120, but now probably only around 40 Zeroes vs. your 50-60(?) bombers, he WILL lose more Zeroes and even more of his elite pilots than you do your 4Es. I know the bombers are valuable, but thats one way to bring your bombers in the air superiority battle without getting them chewed up by flak bombing ampty air fields or Ki-45 protected troops. You can also do that from Karachi and target is pretty close... See if his poker face holds seeing half a hundred 4Es fly over his most important assets. [;)]

Thx Erkki but we have an HR saying 4Es on Naval attack are allowed only if composed by ONE single squadron and with alt max 15k... so i think it's just an Heil Mary option at the moment also because the 4Es pilots are not trained for naval attack...

RGR... Most of the KB AAA can shoot to 16kft. Naval bombardment/LowN skills arent required as you would have wanted to target the CAP, not ships, but at 15kft a single squad will first get every one of its planes damaged by the Zeroes and then 25 to 50% more by the AAA, 6 hex flying distance means more losses than gains...

[Nemo121]

You are focussing on the B-17s as an effective attack force. That isn't their only possible role. Some planes are your sword, some are your shield and sometimes swords are used primarily to block or absorb a thrust, having the appearance of an offensive weapon but actually defending the rest of the strike.

Also, you are focusing on maximum altitude.... That's interesting but only half of the story. Their altitude range is 100 feet to 15,000 feet. Are you, possibly, missing somethingby just focusing on the limitation of maximum altitude and not considering other altitude bands or the interactions possible with other forces which aren't limited by these HRs?

[Erkki]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

You are focussing on the B-17s as an effective attack force. That isn't their only possible role. Some planes are your sword, some are your shield and sometimes swords are used primarily to block or absorb a thrust, having the appearance of an offensive weapon but actually defending the rest of the strike.

Also, you are focusing on maximum altitude.... That's interesting but only half of the story. Their altitude range is 100 feet to 15,000 feet. Are you, possibly, missing somethingby just focusing on the limitation of maximum altitude and not considering other altitude bands or the interactions possible with other forces which aren't limited by these HRs?

Yeah, a 100ft Conga line attack against KB performed by a single squad could also give him some breathing room. He'd know you to not be afraid to use your bombers, and with some luck the CAP is thin and set to 25kft, there being high chances of getting through with no more than 1 or 2 hit bombers. Flak for sure would shoot some down, but he'll think twice about keeping KB 6 hex from Karachi AND keeping only the light 25kft CAP screen. Every Zero CAPing is a Zero that doesnt fly over Karachi, and a lucky 500lbs on the deck of a Jap CV is at minimum 53 plane capacity damaged that needs to be escorted to safety.

[Nemo121]

That might certainly be one result of such an approach. There may, possibly, be others.

[witpqs]

Regarding some earlier comments, AFAIK you can not use strategic movement to leave a base when enemy forces are already in that base hex.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, conducting an orderly and effective retreat or withdrawal is complicated.  Weird or unexpected things can happen to throw you off schedule, allow the enemy to cut off or isolate an army, or to pound the army to death by air.  Just about everybody has experienced the routine of thinking you have enough time and space to evacuate an important force, only to see the enemy catch up and maul it.  I've had this done to me in Malaya and in India in major ways, and in Oz and China to a lesser extent.  So be forwarned, your position probably isn't as safe as you think it is!

[jeffk3510]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Concerning Oz, the situation is pretty good i'd say.
After the patch i was able to swicth off the Hi and then, following the suggestion made by many of you(among them i remember NY59Giants), i started to build up a chain of convoys between East Cost, Cape Town, Perth(or Adelaide) to bring to Oz supplies and, above all, fuel.
Along with that to Oz have been shipped some american units (a division, a couple of regiments, 3 base forces, and lots of arty, engeneers and AAA units) in order to help securing it from a possible invasion.
All the native units have been moved back to the Triangle Brisbane-Melbourne-Sydney, where they started to build and fortify bases and to mass supplies and fuel.
Some squadrons of bombers and fighters have been also shipped from the US to Oz in order to give to the continent a decent power. The only thing that in Oz is missing is a decent naval force.

What about your West Coast to Aussie supply lines?