The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[BBfanboy]

I doubt very much that the Japanese can fly in enough supply for offense. I gathered every transport aircraft Japan has in Feb. 1942 and set them to fly supply to an isolated base. They moved about 150 tons a day. Not much for the huge number of aircraft, although about 1/4 or them were the little Theresas. They only have range 4 so they might not be useful here. I am not sure how much bombers might be able to fly in. I have never tried to use bombers for supply transport.

[ny59giants]

Burma:  No changes.  (A few posts up, NYGiants suggested marching light AA units from India to China - I'm wondering if he specifically limited it to light units - would heavy units eat up too much supply?)

No, it was because I like my heavy AA to stay with some of my major bases in case the Japanese bombers come calling. Some will get moved forward as the Allies retake Burma. In China, the 40mm Bofors have a ceiling of 9000 or 9800. So, they get rid of the milk runs of Japanese bombers at 6000.

Don't forget about few AA Bde the Allies get. You have some on Ceylon I move to Ledo to protect my transport planes into China. Then, you get at least two of these massive AA units in NZ.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Burma:  No changes.  (A few posts up, NYGiants suggested marching light AA units from India to China - I'm wondering if he specifically limited it to light units - would heavy units eat up too much supply?)

No, it was because I like my heavy AA to stay with some of my major bases in case the Japanese bombers come calling. Some will get moved forward as the Allies retake Burma. In China, the 40mm Bofors have a ceiling of 9000 or 9800. So, they get rid of the milk runs of Japanese bombers at 6000.

Don't forget about few AA Bde the Allies get. You have some on Ceylon I move to Ledo to protect my transport planes into China. Then, you get at least two of these massive AA units in NZ.

And ... I believe the Bofors can be air transported on the largest transports while the 75mm and 90mm cannot.

[Canoerebel]

4/21/42
 
China:  In a brief holding spell while we wait to see what develops on the MLR over the next few days.
 
Burma:  An IJ unit moving in on Toungoo, so the roadblock won't last, but it has lasted long enough to give the Allies a good headstart towards the future.
 
India:  No major changes since last report.
 
Oz:  Same here.
 
Pacific:  Most of 32nd Div. to board transports at LA tonight.
 
Final Phase II Opportunity:  With the recent falls of Singapore and Java, John has free up six or more divisions that he can concentrate in a major Phase II move.  At least one of these has gone to China.   He has enough left to do something bold, but the window won't be open much longer.  I'm also searching for clues that his dispersing these units piecemeal as that will give me an all-clear in India and Oz so that I can begin to move forward more aggressively.  Until I sound the all-clear there is still a chance for a major move against either of these targets, but both would be very prickly now, as follows:
 
Oz: About three divivisons of American troops are present along with the organic Australian stuff.  The troops are divided between the greater Perth theater and Brisbane/Maryborough.  With recent air reinforcements plus the American carriers present, the Allies can fight effectively.
 
India:  Ceylon and Assam remain vulnerable, but anything else would be very hard to suicidal for Japan.  NE India is strongly defended and defended in depth.  A deep strike is very unlikely, partly because of an appearance of difficulty (Diego is strongly held and both Diego and Socatra airfields have been built large) and because Bombay (800 AV) and Karachi (600 AV) have sufficient garrisons to hold until reinforcements could arrive from other theaters.  I am close - but not quite ready - to bring troops forward.
 
Elsewhere:  New Zealand and Alaska are available, but those are low-priority places at the moment.
 
 

[Q-Ball]

IMO, it's too late for a massive Phase II move, like an attempt at all of India or OZ. You really have to be landing before April 1 to have a shot, both for landing bonus reasons and for timetable reasons.

He made a critical error at Singapore, by failing to allocate enough troops. This cost him dearly. IMO, you need to send 5 divisions to Malaya, which is probably more than you need, but what is required to be 100% sure of taking the place in early February.

I think he mis-allocated his land units in the SRA, and paid the price

[Canoerebel]

Brad, I very largely agree with you.  I often use the game that you and I played as a benchmark.  Your massive, scary, and almost (ALMOST!) too successful invasion of India began on March 7.  You kept a tight schedule and were in a position to prosecute yours efficiently. 
 
I'm much more sanguine (is that a good word to use?) in this game both because it's already six weeks later and because John doesn't have the four extra divisions that come with Scenario Two. 
 
But, John is the crazy aggressive sort that might do something so nutty it might work - light invade San Diego or Karachi.  After all, in my WitP game with him in 2006, he invaded India massively in 1944 (NINETEEN FORTY FOUR!!!).  That was an abject failure, but I do have to take reasonable precautions against his effort to draw an inside straight.

[Canoerebel]

4/22/42
 
Here's one of the loveliest gifts an Allied player can receive:

SIG INT REPORT FOR Apr 22, 42
CV Kaga is moving to Truk (112,108).

This is only the second time in four AE PBEM matches that I've received a fleet carrier report like this.  This dovetails with the Manado patrol reports of two enemy CV TFs leaving the Celebes on a setting for Babeldaob.  John isn't going to "go deep" in India without everything on hand, so I'm going to release the Aussie division at Karachi.  That unit has long been prepping for Rangoon and will proceed to the Upper Burma frontier.

[Canoerebel]

4/23/42
 
China:  I think John's intent is to work the Nanning sector hard.  I think he's temporarily stymied in the Changsha sector, even with his "interior base" to work from.   Both sides have problems, but I don't think China is going to collapse in the short term or medium term.  That's important, because the Allies may be able to make ground in Burma, which may in turn offer some hope to China.
 
Burma:  The IJA unit that had moved into the hex adjacent to Toungoo vanished!  I don't know if this is some kind of mirage or not.  A UK Brigade at Chittagong is going to move cross country in hopes of occupying (and holding) one of the jungle hexes bordering the key clear terrain in Upper Burma.  The Aussie division at Karachi will move into NE India, but I'll hold her there a few more days until I'm dadgum certain John isn't making a wild play (it's a bit nerve wracking leaving just 150 AV to guard Karachi).
 
India:  No signs of trouble anywhere.  Base building is ongoing nearly everywhere, but in particular the Allies plan to use Chittagong, Delhi, Akyab, Koleymo, Imphal and Ledo.  This is where we want to pay Japan back for its sins in China.
 
DEI/Philippines:  The Allies still hold Manado, which support two Dutch patrol squadrons.  The Allies at Clark are out of supply but easily withstood a deliberate attack by two IJA divisions a few days ago.  It's possible Clark could hold into May, though a shock attack or two might be enough now to finish the siege.
 
Australia:  159th Motorized Regiment has mostly landed at Melbourne.  That's it for major infantry until 32nd Div. (prepping for Milne Bay) arrives in about three weeks.
 
West Coast:  41st Div. at Tacoma has to be bought out.  I'm not ready to do that yet, but it is time to make the long term plans for the unit.  I was torn between NoPac and India, and went with the latter.  I have a feeling that the Allies are going to fight hard for Upper Burma in 1942, while I'm not sure I want to fight hard in the Aluetians in '42.  So the unit is beginning prep for Rangoon (that's not Upper Burma, but it makes sense to my way of thinking) and will move to East Coast.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/42
 
China:  John extracted one of his isolated divisions, which in turn beat up on a small Chinese corps in open terrain (it had the inside track to re-isolate the IJA division, but his bombers flew and mine didn't, thus slowing my guys down).  Overall, though, the situation looks like it will be static for awhile.
 
Australia:  159th Motorized will head to Geraldton along with a fresh USAAF base force.  This move is focused on a future plan.
 
Allied Plans:  Both carrier forces appear quiet at the moment; mine are upgrading and perhaps John's are too (or replacing lost aircraft or repositioning for future operations).  During the lull, I am trying to position troops with proper prep to offer a variety of options to move forward in areas where the KB isn't.  IE, if the KB shows up one place, I want to have the option to move somewhere else.  With that in mind, the Allies are positioning and prepping as follows:
 
NoPac:  With Japan seemingly focused on Umnak and Adak, the Allies are focusing on the corridor from Adak to Attu.  IE, I'll bypass the Umnak stronghold if and when the time comes.  Troops for this operation are mostly at Seattle with a few at Pearl.
 
CenPac:  Some troops at Pearl are prepping for the Marshalls, though I would need more to make this feasible.
 
SWPac:  A real emphasis is Milne Bay and the offshore islands.  32nd Div., currently enroute from USA to Oz, is the backbone, both lots of American and Aussie troops are prepping.  Some Kiwi and American troops are prepping for the Santa Cruz Islands plus Tulagi.
 
Oz:  Carnavon would make a logical target since it can be reached by land.  The primary purpose the Allies might make a move would be to draw John's attention.  I have sufficient troops in the Perth Theater to handle this if desired.
 
Cocos Island:  Prep is complete for this move, anchored by 7th Oz Division at Bombay.  Other units include a Marine raider battalion at Capetown, and US Army combat engineer unit in Oz, and a few other troops here and there.
 
Burma:  The Allies are going to make Burma an active theater.  If John allows me to seize the key jungle hexes in strength, so that his potential MLR is left fatally weakened, I can create serious pressure here with the help of Allied 2EB and 4EB that will be based near the front.
 
China:  This theater will remain active, drawing John's exited attention, both on the ground and in the air.

[Canoerebel]

4/25/42
 
China:  An awful attack for Japan a hex east of Changsha:
 
Ground combat at 83,52 (near Changsha)
Japanese Deliberate attack 
Attacking force 18303 troops, 195 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 389
Defending force 17788 troops, 72 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 570

Japanese adjusted assault: 149 
Allied adjusted defense: 491 
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 3

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
     1124 casualties reported
        Squads: 125 destroyed, 140 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 25 disabled
        Engineers: 5 destroyed, 10 disabled
     Guns lost 22 (1 destroyed, 21 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
     149 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 15 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
   57th Infantry Brigade
   40th Division
   138th Infantry Regiment
   2nd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment

Defending units:
   53rd Chinese Corps
   87th Chinese Corps

China Continued:  The Japanese are now stymied at and around Changsha.  John has two best hopes to shake things up:  (1)  he's bringing at least three divisions from the Nanning Sector towards Liuchow.  If my 350 AV army in the woods hex outside Nanning doesn't hold, then Liuchow won't either.  However, Kweilin is the strongest outpost and shouldn't be at risk.  (2) The Japanese interior base - John thus far hasn't shown any signs of moving out from the base; I'm still hoping I'm right that air supply won't permit him to conduct offensive operations.  Outside these clashes along the MLR, China is continuing to work on the second line of defenses to make sure the Japanese can't move west (true; or north on the map) towards the Toyun and vicinity bases.  Overall, the Chinese situation still looks pretty good.

Burma:  The Japanese reclaimed Toungoo.  I'm trying to figure out if John is bringing one or both divisions that recently conquered Port Blair.  Most importantly, I'm pretty sure the Allies are going to win the race to occupy and defend the key jungle hexes.  That's one of key - if almost unnoticed - campaigns going on right now.  An IJ combat TF of some sort seems to be moving into the strait between Rangoon and Port Blair:  an invasion force targeting Assam?  A bombardment TF?  We'll see.

India:  Quiet.  18th Brit Div. rebuilding at Diego since early in the war is at 300 AV now (up from 140 at the start).  Curiously, experience has increased from 40 to 47 during the interim.  At some point, Diego will become secure enough to allow 18th to begin prepping for another location.

Oz:  Quiet.

Pacific:  Quiet.

[paullus99]

Better that he brings those Divisions to Burma, rather than moving them elsewhere. Making waves here should pay dividends & force John to start paying attention to an area of the map that seems to be nothing but a backwater (for both of you).

[Canoerebel]

Burma's been a small game within a game, but it's not a backwater.  The Allies have had major plans for the theater going back three weeks now.  If, as I expect, the Allies take those key jungle hexes, Burma will become even more important.  The Allies have alot of firepower prepping for Burma, including one Australian division, one American division, and a bunch of Indian troops.  I'll need alot of politcal points to buy units, so I'm saving, saving, saving (at this point I have 1700).

[Capt. Harlock]

Japanese ground losses:
1124 casualties reported
Squads: 125 destroyed, 140 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 25 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 10 disabled
Guns lost 22 (1 destroyed, 21 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
149 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 15 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

I don't understand how you can destroy 125 squads and inflict less than 1,200 casualties. Are you sure those numbers are right?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

Japanese ground losses:
1124 casualties reported
Squads: 125 destroyed, 140 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 25 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 10 disabled
Guns lost 22 (1 destroyed, 21 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
149 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 15 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

I don't understand how you can destroy 125 squads and inflict less than 1,200 casualties. Are you sure those numbers are right?

The fact that there are no (-) symbols for the attacker combined with your quesiton, combined with the results suggests that many, many squads were hollowed out. Perhaps from overuse.

Japan should have won this battle going away. They apparently had good supply (no (-). John loves to shock attack and he hates to rest his men.

[Canoerebel]

I believe these results are right.
 
This is partly a product of a little "under the wraps" game I try to play with John.  He's attacked in this hex many times during the game, each time getting beaten badly.  To entice him to attack again, I occasionally withdraw a unit (with good reason too, as I can use them elsewhere).  Sure enough, he nearly always attacks again.  At one time I had six or seven corps in this hex.  I'm down to two.
 
I'm not sure why it gave a negative for experience for my guys.  Both are at or slightly above 50 experience.
 
By the way, I wouldn't expect John to win this battle, but that's primarily because I know just how beaten down his guys are.  Also, one of my corps has four forts, the other three.

[ny59giants]

CenPac:  Some troops at Pearl are prepping for the Marshalls, though I would need more to make this feasible.

Playing both sides, I would say go through the Gilberts first. Larger stacking limits and multiple bases that can be built up to size 5 AFs (allows 4e bombers to carry normal loads) and many bases with ports that can expand to size 4.

[ny59giants]

Combat Results - Once your troops have 1/2 of their infantry squads disabled, then they are destroyed more quickly when on the receiving end of poor combat results.

HQs - I know I've talked about using them to I'm blue in the face, but using a Command HQ when attacking a base is great. Use your Chinese Command HQ to prep for a base that you plan to assault soon. You have so many Corp HQs that this is a given, so try for that extra 90% adjusted AV with The Command.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants
[Playing both sides, I would say go through the Gilberts first. Larger stacking limits and multiple bases that can be built up to size 5 AFs (allows 4e bombers to carry normal loads) and many bases with ports that can expand to size 4.

I meant the Gilberts. They are prepping for Makin, Tarawa and Abemama. The first and third I have adequately covered, but I need to add some troops to make Tarawa viable. The Gilberts are the lowest priority objective in my queue of operations, which is why it's lagging a bit in troops committed.

[Canoerebel]

Great idea on the HQ, MIchael, thanks.  I actually have no hope of attacking any real bases in the near future, so I'm not sure which base I'll choose.  It'll be potluck.  There are possiblities, but only long shots for a long, long time.  I won't go into details why.  Just trust me that I can't go on the offensive for quite some time to come and then only if John really neuters himself, which is possible.

[Canoerebel]

Pardon me for showing my command ignorance here, but I have SWPac HQ at Brisbane prepping for Milne Bay.  Would having this HQ along help or would it for some reason be a bad move?