The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

12/19/43

Big Tent: At Ambon, the infantry bring down forts to 3, which is encouraging. Losses are modest, but Japan suffers 2x.

Death Star and the Herd continue slowly towards Normanton, though John won't know until tomorrow, at the earliest, that Merauke or Horn Island aren't the targets. No mishaps today, and I was most appreciative that the strike aircraft didn't expect sorties on mishmash shipping at Gove, where John has 80 fighters. In a day or two, I will detach at least one carrier division to sprint ahead to Normanton to replenish.

No sign of KB today, but it's location at Truk yesterday decisively allays the fear I'd been operating under that John might spring her from the Java Sea region. If he wishes to oppose Merauke, he'll have to do so through the Celebes or through the Torres Strait, which will mean plenty of advance notice. (For him to get unseen to Java Sea would take probably 10 or 15 days through the South China Sea - I just can't see John doing that.)

John's LBA roughed up a DD and sank a couple of LST in the Babar/Saumlaki area. USN subs repaid by sinking a TK near Shikuka and an xAK in the Java Sea.

[Dirtnap86]

Good to see this still rolling.

Part of me is glad Nagato made her getaway, I'm partial to her in general.

The other part of me is wondering why she's not rusting on the seabed XD

Hope you and yours had a good All Hollow's Eve.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Dirtnap86

Good to see this still rolling.

Part of me is glad Nagato made her getaway, I'm partial to her in general.

The other part of me is wondering why she's not rusting on the seabed XD

Hope you and yours had a good All Hollow's Eve.

That would be "All Hallows Eve" the night before Nov. 1 which is "All Saints Day" on the Catholic calendar - the Saints being the hallowed ones.

[Canoerebel]

12/20/43

Big Tent: John is ramping up activity in Big Tent now that Death Star is away. He has 186 bomber at Ternate. He sent them vs. the Americans at Ambon. They didn't do any damage today, but that could change momentarily. I'm not employing LRCAP tomorrow, because the fighters have a more important mission - protecting 300 ships at Boela. But CA Baltimore TF will sortie at enemy CLs at Ambon. There is risk here, especially if they don't make it back to Boela overnight.

The Americans will deliberate attack at Ambon tomorrow. I hope forts drop, because John is going to try to reinforce, and he can turn this into a Guadalcanal stalemate if he moves quickly enough. American bombers are hitting Ambon each day. Tomorrow some will target Ternate, which seems to have enemy bombers but no fighters. We'll see.

No sign of KB. She could be here by tomorrow. Or she could be drawn to the Torres region, where I have those CVEs at Cooktown (bait) and where (I think) John believes Death Star is heading.

Third Ring: Death Star and associated merchant TFs battled enemy subs today, sinking two in the shallow Carpentaria waters. That's a sideshow of the big show, but nevertheless very important. A lagging AE/AKE TF is making very slow time. Death Star is only moving slowly in hopes it'll catch up.

I think John is under the impression that Horn Island is the immediate goal, but he'll know by tomorrow that something else is up.

It looks like Big Tent is going to turn into a beehive with Death Star away. The battle may become very hot when DS returns. That may be okay. Big Tent is now pretty darn strong, and I can probably seek battle on decent terms there. Better there than in hostile or more neutral waters. Attritioning the Kaigun is still my foremost objective but subservient, at the moment, to providing security for Big Tent.)

I spent October 31 hiking in the Cohutta Wilderness Area - a very tough 14-mile loop that include an 1,800 foot climb up a rocky chasm that leads to Panther Creek Falls. It as a memorably difficult outing. I came home with sore feet and back, sat in a chair, and woke up nine hours later.

[jwolf]

I came home with sore feet and back, sat in a chair, and woke up nine hours later.

Welcome to old age. [:D]

Tomorrow some [bombers] will target Ternate, which seems to have enemy bombers but no fighters.

That sounds too good to be true ...

[Canoerebel]

You're probably right, but there's a chance John is overzealous in trying to attack the ground troops at Ambon. Let's see.

Also in the "Hmmm, it's too good to be true" category would be those enemy CLs parked at Ambon. There's a high likelihood that John is setting up something. My guess that he was either striving for a CAP trap or putting the CLs there to block me from reinforcing the base. My *guess* is that he isn't aware that I have fast combat ships in numbers at Ambon. So I'm willing to risk Baltimore TF...however, after I sent him the turn I was already feeling remorse. The odds are pretty high he has his ships covered there. I shouldn't have sent high-value and relatively scarce combat ships on such a mission.

[AcePylut]

If you suspected a CAP-trap, did you try and sweep the base with fighters first? Just asking. 10,000 mouseclicks per turn, it's easy to miss a few.

[Canoerebel]

Allied bombardments shut down Ambon's airfield. So if John puts any CAP over the base, it'll come from Namlea, Kendari or Ternate, at a distance and probably not very strong. Through this turn, though, my bombers haven't encountered any CAP on their runs. I think that's going to change - probably this turn.

I seldom if ever use sweeps. Like SqzMyLemon, I'm getting pretty bad results consistently. Rather than accept that paradigm, I've worked to set up situations in which John is the one who has to sweep my fields and escort his bombers. That's why I've focused on this particular strategy - going deep (Sumatra/Big Tent) so that the enemy has to come to me.

I'm fighting in a defensively offensive way.

[Canoerebel]

I'm thinking out loud here: musings about how this game has developed as it has. I offer these thoughts.

You may have noticed that I've had some trouble in taking occupied enemy bases. Wake Island and Ambon are two examples. I suspect, but I'm not yet positive, that Merauke will be somewhat similar. I eventually succeeded at Wake and I'm making progress at Ambon, but the going was slow and more costly than it had to be. At Wake, my failure to conquer quickly led directly to the loss of a BB, CV and CVE.

My preference to move deep, take mostly undefended bases, and then force John to attack me may result partly from my lack of confidence in taking on well-defended bases. It's still relatively early (I think unit devices increase dramatically in '44) and I'm learning (things like the value of HQ, artillery, combat engineers and preparation). That's good, because the nature of the game changes as we go into '44 and '45. John will have less territory to defend and will have had more time to prepare defensively. Finding open areas deep may become impossible (it should, if John does his job). So eventually I'm going to have to morph into taking well-prepared positions. So I'm a willing student preparing for that new paradigm.

[Canoerebel]

12/21/43

Big Tent: John is reinforcing Ambon, probably by air. The deliberate attack fails at 1:4, doesn't touch forts, and disrupts more Allied troops than Japanese. I'll contest the shipping lanes to the extent that I can, but not air transport. At this point, I think the preferred course of action is to rest/conserve the infantry until Death Star returns. This may become a Guadalcanal situation, but I think John would be leery of committing his precious capital ships against Death Star + Allied LBA. I'd take such an arrangement gladly.

I think that's a big dividend of attritioning the Kaigun. John's been very leery of committing his combat ships in waters - and under circumstances - where he'd ordinarily do so and they would be quite effective. He'll commit them again, but I've had weeks to move about with little concern for safety. That dividend was hard earned at a steep price, but it's paying nicely now.

Third Ring: The carriers are within sight of Normanton now, and the vulnerable and precious support TF (AKE/AE) has nearly caught up. One CV TF will detach tonight and proceed into port to get a headstart on replenishing. In fact, I stripped a couple of Hellcat squadrons and sent them to Normanton's airfield. They've already replaced lost aircraft.

John knows now that there isn't an immediate threat to his bases. He'll ramp up his offensive and molesting activities accordingly. I don't want him to reinforce or resupply Merauke, though, so I'll watch that area carefully.

I want to see how things progress. John totally ignored Ambon while focusing all his assets and attention on trying to get reinforcements to Darwin, Merauke, Babar, etc. When that got stymied, he shifted his attention to Ambon. Will he be "all in" for Ambon and vicinity, or can he effectively divide his attention? Let's see.

Finally, I'm watching the Cooktown region carefully. The bate is dangling, protected by strong but not uber CAP. Will it draw KB? Will it draw a combat TF? I think the former is possible, the latter pretty unlikely.

This is a thought-provoking, challenging, entertaining situation.

[BillBrown]

You should dangle bait and not bate.[:)]

[Canoerebel]

I think John and I are mutual baiters.

[Canoerebel]

12/22/43

Third Ring: For the first time in months, something other than Big Tent has center stage. Third Ring is off to a good start:
1. All transports arrived at Normanton. Loading commences tonight. This will include assault ships bound for Merauke (and small assault TFs for Wessel Island and Mornington Island) and lots of reinforcements for Big Tent. The reinforcements are mostly engineers, base forces, and AA.
2. A bunch of AOs are nearing Normanton. Three still have 50% fuel and will remain with Death Star. The rest are empty and will make for port. They're probably done and out of the future Big Tent proceedings.
3. The first CV TF partially replenished sorties and is full on ammo. Normanton is within eight-hex range of the east coast hexes. John isn't likely to come that close to the coast with KB, but just in case, the CVE TFs will come to Normanton tonight. None of them need aircraft or sortie replenishment.
4. The balance of the CVs will remain a few hexes off the coast, out of range of the Coral Sea. I do not think it possible for KB to come in from the other side given the sighting at Truk about four days back.

My guess is that it might take as little as three more days to load the amphibs and replenish the carriers and get underway. Possibly four or five days.

I found and fixed an awful mistake on my part. I had loaded an F4U squadron aboard a CV....but they aren't carrier capable. So that carrier was deemed "overloaded" and wouldn't have flown any CAP or sorties. Yikes!

Big Tent: Nothing major happened today, but there is a decided increase in the Japanese concentration of forces and tempo of activity.

And the same with John's, too. He's excited about something. He sent this email: "I am really trying to find an appropriate Christmas present for the Allied forces.  Do you have any worthwhile ideas?  Still have a couple of shopping days left for planning and inspiration…" There's a reasonable chance he's doing just that, but he engages in this kind of joshing only when he's jazzed.

He's jazzed. I had better be careful.

[ny59giants]

I have to put on my counselor's hat for you two. For months while this game was on hold again, I saw some of your post that you could take or leave this game. I speak with John on regular basis and he stated he didn't miss it. Now, I hear John state he has nothing going on and plans to flip 3 or 4 turns with you. You do realize that this type of behavior is of an addict? The "AE crack pipe" has both of you back to full addictive behaviors again. [:D]

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

I have to put on my counselor's hat for you two. For months while this game was on hold again, I saw some of your post that you could take or leave this game. I speak with John on regular basis and he stated he didn't miss it. Now, I hear John state he has nothing going on and plans to flip 3 or 4 turns with you. You do realize that this type of behavior is of an addict? The "AE crack pipe" has both of you back to full addictive behaviors again. [:D]

You say that like addiction is a bad thing!!

[Dirtnap86]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
That would be "All Hallows Eve" the night before Nov. 1 which is "All Saints Day" on the Catholic calendar - the Saints being the hallowed ones.

I realized that last night some time...and never came back to change it. Derp on my part.

[Canoerebel]

No, no, Michael. That's not what I said. I said that, for me, the game is addictive and like crack cocaine, that I cannot moderate, and that the only defense I have is to walk away from the game entirely. I can do that, as per my two-year sabbatical. At some point it may come to that. But not yet. Not while John and I are clashing.

[ny59giants]

Yes Dan, you were gone for some time. However, you decided to walk in to your local tavern (AE forum) and sit down at the end of the bar sipping your club soda. You made a few comments here and there. Next thing the regulars at the tavern notice was your ordering up some southern moonshine on occasions. At least you have been honest with Step One of your 12 step program. [;)]

[Canoerebel]

No, no. I never left the forum. I remained active throughout the sabbatical. The most encouraging thing about that was the number of regulars who were sticking around and the number of newcomers. It was cool to see the game thrive even while transitioning into a new generation.

[Canoerebel]

12/23/43

All indications are that something is really up. It could be a snazzy sneak attack by KB or it might be more basic: John may think that I've left Big Tent and that things are winding down. He may be looking forward to bludgeoning Big Tent on the west side and, when Death Star exits to the east, trying to configure a bushwhack. He has my full attention, but I am a little uncertain as to exactly what he's doing.

But it was a good day in a multitude of theaters.

Big Tent: CA Baltimore TF tangles with a CL fast transport TF at Ambon, doing "heavy fires" damage to CL Isuzu. John doesn't have many CLs, so that's meaningful. His airfields all around Big Tent are active and have a lot of aircraft. Bombers are targeting the Babo/Saumlaki region. Others are sortying against shipping without effect (long range against stout CAP hasn't yielded results yet).

The "heart" of the Big Tent region remains "unviolated." I attribute this to the weakened condition of the Kaigun. John has to pick his fights carefully.

Third Ring: The assault transports are about loaded and ready to go. The AKE/AE arrived at Normanton today. The carriers should begin replenishing tomorrow. The date of embarkation could be three days. I'm looking for possible ambushes out there, but don't see them yet.

The Allies did a snap invasion of unoccupied dot hex Mornington Island today. Groote Eylandt will come in about three days.

Death Star is close to Normanton, but apparently undetected. John might deduce that the carriers are at Normanton. What kind of decisions will he make?

I don't think John has reinforced Merauke by sea since his transports were wiped out a few days back, but he might be by air. D-Day could be six days off.

What happens after Merauke? Death Star returns to Big Tent an the Allies move on Ambon in an interesting way.

India: 70th IJA Div. attacked a few Commonwealth units that are blocking the upper Burma Road. 70th got roughed up. An Allied bomber hasn't flown here in many months. That'll change tomorrow as a bunch of 2EB target 70th. Nothing is going on here for quite some time yet, but I'd like to draw John's attention a bit, along with some of his air force.