wneumann vs Jolly Pillager- the Allied perspective

[wneumann]

One more time........ Australian deployments in Feb 1942

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 2/8 - 2/11/42

Indian Ocean: It appears that Japanese CV(s) that had been operating south of the Sunda Strait (between Java & Sumatra) left the area. One of my Dutch SS spotted but failed to attack a Japanese CS moving northward through Sunda Strait - this SS is remaining on station to detect any Japanese ships attempting to move through Sunda Straits to the south. Movement of Allied merchant shipping from India to Australia (Perth) has been resumed - individual AK and TK departing Colombo for Perth, one ship daily. This ensures a continuous flow of supply and fuel to Australia while minimizing exposure of Allied ships to Japanese attacks. A transport TF carrying 7th Australian Division is approaching Colombo - a decision on whether to disembark the division at Colombo or continue its transit to Australia yet to be determined.

Burma: Other than air and ground bombardment attacks at Rangoon, no detectable Japanese activity since the fall of Meiktila on 2/6. No reinforcements for Japanese 55th Division at Rangoon to date - my opponent being content with this division executing only ground bombardment attacks.

DEI: Bandjermasin (southern Borneo) captured by Japanese (Kure 2 SNLF & 2 Para Rgt) on 2/9. Japanese forces yet to be identified have landed on Tenimbar Island. No Allied naval (other than one SS) or air forces in position to contest the landing on Tenimbar - Japanese LBA (Betty & Nell now based on Timor) have pretty much closed off the NW coast of Australia to Allied surface ships, the supply situation around Darwin heavily limiting Allied air operations there. All other sectors in DEI quiet.

Australia: I will have to once again update and try to post a map of deployments in Australia. At this time there is a considerable amount of "housekeeping" - movement of LCU, air units, and (to a lesser extent) ships.

Philippines: Bombardment attacks on Bataan and Cagayan continue - little change in the overall situation. Some Japanese artillery reinforcements have appeared at Bataan (1 Heavy FA Rgt & 15 Mortar Bn) - 15 Mortar Bn transferred to Bataan from Singapore. USAFFE HQ has been re-assigned to SW Pacific as a subordinate HQ and parts of USAFFE HQ are being evacuated to Darwin by submarine transport. My intent is to use HQ USAFFE in the Darwin area to draw overland transfer of supply into Darwin (ANZAC HQ also being temporarily pressed into service to help). In a similar manner, I also evacuated parts of HQ Asiatic Fleet to Australia and reassinged it to South Pacific for use as a subordinate HQ.

New Guinea: A Japanese surface combat TF (CA Ashigara & Maya) bombarded Port Moresby on 2/10 - some damage to airfield and base facilities. Allied ground forces currently defending Port Moresby include 30 Australian Brigade, an infantry battalion, and a base force LCU. I am in the process of setting up supply transport by air (Dakotas) from Cairns.

South Pacific: A Japanese surface TF bombarded Pago Pago on 2/10 - AAR from Japanese combat report follows. The three surviving U.S. minelayers from the KB air strikes on 2/7 near Penhryn Island continued moving westward without further pursuit from the KB. Location of the KB is unknown as it has not been detected since the action on 2/7 - one of its TF was shown to be moving eastward going into 2/8. Currently there is a gap in Allied naval air search coverage between Palmyra and Pago Pago (mainly east of Pago Pago and to the south of Palmyra). As soon as it is verified to safely do so, I intend to dispatch AV to Christmas Island and Penhryn and operate PBY or Do-24 aircraft from these locations on naval search. Aircraft to do this are already available at Pago Pago and Palmyra. AV are being sent from Pearl Harbor and New Zealand.

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Naval bombardment of Pago Pago, at 96,113 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

67 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Japanese Ships
CA Kako, Shell hits 11
CA Furutaka, Shell hits 8
CA Kinugasa, Shell hits 10
CA Aoba

Allied ground losses:
51 casualties reported
Guns lost 6

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Movement of convoys from Panama City to the South Pacific is set to resume after temporarily being stopped due to activity of the KB around Penhryn Island. These convoys are well to the south of Penhryn Island and moving somewhat near (but not along) the southern map edge. I have individual ships leading the main convoys moving to the west - other individual ships are moving eastward from New Zealand along this route.

Eastern Pacific/US West Coast: A convoy carrying U.S. 111th RCT arrived at Midway on 2/10 and now unloading troops plus 20K of supply. A second convoy originally bound for Palmyra with another U.S. RCT has been diverted to Hawaii until I know where the KB is and what it is doing - this convoy is near Hawaii as of 2/11.

In other news............

Two Japanese SS (I-16 and RO-64) have been confirmed sunk by Allied surface ASW. The I-16 was sunk in the "shipping channel" from Panama City by escorts from the convoys bound to South Pacific, the RO-64 by MSW near Cairns.

Deploying Japanese SS into the off-map "shipping channels" seems to be a two-edged sword - the bad news being that it is relatively easy for Japanese SS to occupy Allied shipping lanes, the good news being that it is relatively simple for the Allies to locate and execute ASW attacks on Japanese SS found in the shipping channels. My overall policy on ASW being rather aggressive - any Japanese SS detected will be attacked as quickly with as much force as possible (unless totally insane to do so in a specific case) and I have no reluctance to deploy any ship that carries depth charges (regardless of type) to the task, preferably in large packs.

[wneumann]

Breaking news from Port Moresby 2/12/42:

A Japanese invasion TF (reported to be 10 AP?) was detected south of Rabaul moving on a SW heading - possible destination Port Moresby. Given my past tendency to leave most of my opponent's landings unopposed, the AP just might actually be unescorted.

From the forces I have on-hand, my best possibility for opposing this invasion (if it is indeed Port Moresby) is to take it on with LBA. During the 2/13/42 orders phase, 13 A-20B and 18 A-24 aircraft have quietly flown into Port Moresby from Cooktown and Cairns. My opponent has had no opportunity to detect the presence of these aircraft.

As the A-24 is a land-based version of the SBD Dauntless and (like the SBD) carries a 1000 lb bomb load, perhaps they could perform in a manner comparable to their carrier-based cousins. The A-20B's now in Port Moresby are set to execute naval attack at 2-3,000 ft altitude, so do they actually perform skip bombing? These planes are going in unescorted but the Japs are probably unescorted too. Be nice to bag some AP's.

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 2/12 - 2/13/42

Japanese transport shipping detected moving NW through Malacca Straits and attacked by Dutch submarine patrol - AAR's follow. Other Allied submarines also in area and moving into the estimated path of remaining Japanese transports.

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Sub attack at 21,47

Japanese Ships
AK Hiyoshi Maru, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage (later confirmed sunk)

Allied Ships
SS KXVIII

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Sub attack at 21,47

Japanese Ships
AK Meiten Maru, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (possible sinking)

Allied Ships
SS KXVIII, hits 1

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Phillipines: No change in situation. Bombardment attacks continue on Bataan and Cagayan. Submarine transport evacs still on-going.

DEI: Tenimbar captured by Japanese 21 NLF on 2/13. Naval bombardment of Darwin by CA Nachi & CL Nagara also on 2/13.

Port Moresby: Japanese TF spotted on 2/12 confirmed headed toward Port Moresby. U.S. A-20 and A-24 aircraft flown into Port Moresby on 2/12 launched air strikes on the invasion TF(s). CA Australia, CL Hobart & Adelaide still moving northward from NZ to Port Moresby, they may arrive in time to engage Japanese invasion TF while at Port Moresby or possibly intercept them on their return trip. It does not appear likely that a Japanese landing at Port Moresby can be stopped, though some damage has and might continue to be inflicted on enemy ships and the troops they are carrying. Map and AAR follow.

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Day Air attack on TF at 56,96

Allied aircraft
A-24 Dauntless x 9

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
AP Karimo Maru, Bomb hits 4, on fire, heavy damage

Japanese ground losses:
80 casualties reported
Guns lost 2

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x A-24 Dauntless bombing at 2000 feet

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Day Air attack on TF at 56,96

Allied aircraft
A-24 Dauntless x 3
A-20B Boston x 6

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
PG Choko Maru #2
AP Daihachikyo Maru
PC Shonan Maru #17, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x A-20B Boston bombing at 10000 feet
3 x A-20B Boston bombing at 10000 feet
3 x A-24 Dauntless bombing at 2000 feet

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Day Air attack on TF at 56,96

Allied aircraft
A-20B Boston x 5

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
DD Murasame
CL Kuma

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x A-20B Boston bombing at 10000 feet
4 x A-20B Boston bombing at 10000 feet

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Day Air attack on TF at 56,96

Allied aircraft
A-24 Dauntless x 11
A-20B Boston x 3

Allied aircraft losses
A-24 Dauntless: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
AP Nachi Maru, Bomb hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
AK Konsan Maru
AP Kiyama Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Japanese ground losses:
19 casualties reported

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x A-24 Dauntless bombing at 2000 feet
3 x A-20B Boston bombing at 10000 feet
3 x A-24 Dauntless bombing at 2000 feet

Situation Map of Port Moresby 2/13/42

[wneumann]

Interesting question: I now have Force Z (Repulse, Prince of Wales, 4-5 British and Dutch CL, 4-5 British and Dutch DD) fully operational and docked at Perth. I am considering three options on the future employment of this force:
 
1) Remain at Perth - Force Z is currently the entire Allied naval presence on the west coast of Australia. However, Japanese LBA (Betty & Nells) based on Timor preclude the use of Force Z off the NW coast of Australia against the occasional IJN shore bombardment of Darwin without risk of severe damage and possible loss of these ships with little or nothing to show for it. Likewise, I do not envision use of Force Z in the DEI for the same reasons.
 
2) Redeploy to India (Colombo) - This option would add Force Z to the British naval forces already there. My thought on this option is that I would be adding two more BB to the ones already hanging around India - basically "bait" for the KB in the event my opponent is tempted to enter the Indian Ocean. In any event, I am of the opinion that I have sufficient British warships based in (and around) India to create a surface combat TF if one is required.
 
3) Redeploy to the eastern coast of Australia (Sydney, Brisbane, or Melbourne) - This may be the most effective employment of Force Z though at the risk of leaving western Australia fully exposed. At this time there is no significant Allied naval presence other than a handful of cruisers, DD, and other small ships suitable for ASW. Force Z would be a major reinforcement here - it could pick up CA Houston, CL Boise and some DD along the way. While it would be much too late to engage the Japanese at Port Moresby, it would be exceedingly useful in subsequent actions until such time as major U.S. surface and carrier forces arrive.
 
Opinions are welcome and gratefully appreciated in advance... I am leaning toward option (3), option (2) being the least likely.
 
 

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations: 2/14/42

Port Moresby: Naval bombardment by two small Japanese surface TF (total of 4 CL, 7 DD) - practically no aircraft destroyed but airfield is damaged to extent where aircraft could not operate. No Japanese LCU have come ashore at Port Moresby and uncertain at this time whether the Jap invasion TF is still moving on Port Moresby or has been aborted. Sigint intercept read during my 12/15 orders phase indicate Yokosuka 5th SNLF is loaded on AP Kuroshio Maru moving to Port Moresby. A squadron of Dakotas based in Cooktown is flying supply transport into Port Moresby - combat replay indicates Dakotas were intercepted over Port Moresby, supplies were delivered but some Dakotas returned damaged (none destroyed). Japanese do have a small number of Zeroes based within range of Port Moresby, they may possibly be flying LRCAP.

Force Z (BB Prince of Wales, BC Repulse, 6 CL, 5 DD) has departed Perth enroute to Sydney for redeployment on the east coast of Australia.

DEI: Medan captured by Japanese on 2/14, AAR below. If the assault strength of Jap Guards (2nd) Infantry Division in the AAR is correct, this is an indication of how well the unit has rebuilt since its previous engagement at Singapore. Still its strength was sufficient to do the job at Medan.

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Ground combat at Medan

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 18058 troops, 66 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 352
Guards (2nd) Infantry Division
Defending force 3552 troops, 20 guns, 2 vehicles, Assault Value = 51
1 NS & 2 WS Garrison Bns, Medan CD Unit, 6 Dutch Naval Base Force, 14 NEIAF Base Force

Japanese max assault: 315 - adjusted assault: 232
Allied max defense: 43 - adjusted defense: 31
Japanese assault odds: 7 to 1 (fort level 2)
Japanese forces CAPTURE Medan base !!!

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India: The decision was made to disembark 7 Australian Division at Colombo instead of continuing its transit to Australia. As much as I would rather have this division reach SW Pacific, I see a more pressing need (in the short term) to build up as powerful a defensive position on Ceylon as possible - this division is the best available force to reinforce Ceylon within the next 30-45 game days. My estimate is that I have 30 game days or less to have an effective defence of Ceylon in position and ready to engage a Japanese attack. I cannot reasonably afford to take LCU from the Indian mainland for defending Ceylon. Ceylon is too vital a position (especially in regard to sea routes between Aden and western Australia) to not defend vigorously. Large quantities of supply and aircraft are also enroute to Ceylon. My defense of Ceylon includes strongly garrisoning both Colombo and Trincomalee with LCU, aircraft, and substantial stocks of supply. Right now things are quiet in this theater and this is the ideal time to prepare.

A British carrier TF (2 CV, 4 CA, 1 CL, 4 DD) has been formed at Aden and now enroute to Colombo. The intended use of this TF is to intercept and attack Japanese transports moving westward through the Malacca Straits into the Bay of Bengal. While this activity could draw the attention of the KB, it could also prove to be a good diversion.

Elsewhere, business as usual.

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 2/15/42

Port Moresby: It looks as if my opponent has been "saving up" for this one.... Japanese landing at Port Moresby - AAR as follows. Supply on hand in Port Moresby virtually zero. Japanese LRCAP is definately flying over Port Moresby, Dakota I air transports attempting to fly in supplies were again intercepted. All aircraft (including my gallant A-24's) still in Port Moresby are grounded, at least the squadrons there will be back in few months after they're wiped out on the ground.

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Ground combat at Port Moresby

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 2776 troops, 24 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 68
Kure 3, 5 & 6 SNLF; Maizuru 1 & 4 SNLF, Yokosuka 5 & 7 SNLF, 82 & 84 Naval Gd, 6 Reserve Tank Rgt
Defending force 11154 troops, 82 guns, 29 vehicles, Assault Value = 349
30th Australian Brigade, Papuan Infantry Bn, 112 RAN Base Force

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South Pacific: Naval search flights from Pago Pago detect a Japanese shore bombardment TF heading towards Pago Pago, probably will reach there in the next game turn. A second TF (or several TF's) composition unknown is two game days behind them heading SW toward Pago Pago. Looks like my opponent is invading there too.

The loss of Pago Pago will likely doom sea communication between U.S. and Australia/New Zealand. Perhaps my plans for '43 and '44 will involve a frontal assault due west from Hawaii.

So folks, any ideas on a strategy to pursue if the U.S. is completely cut off from the South Pacific? I am in the process of reinforcing Palmyra, which will basically become the "front line" outpost to the southwest from the U.S.

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 2/16/42

Japanese capture Port Moresby - AAR follows. At this point there is little to be done to contest a Japanese build-up of Port Moresby for continued operations - at least until the airfields at Cooktown and Cairns are expanded to the point where 4E bombers can operate from them. I have engineers from several base force units working at each location, Cooktown air base is size 3 and 28% completed towards size 4. While I have 60 B-17 D and E bombers based in NE Australia, I have no airfield north of Townsville capable of operating them - Port Moresby being out of range for B-17 flying from Townsville.

Except for submarines, naval operations around Port Moresby not possible due to Japanese LBA - land based Kates flying from Lae, Betty and Nell from Rabaul.

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Ground combat at Port Moresby

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 13883 troops, 88 guns, 42 vehicles, Assault Value = 387
Kure 3, 5 & 6 SNLF; Maizuru 1 & 4 SNLF, Yokosuka 5 & 7 SNLF, 82 & 84 Naval Gd, 6 Reserve Tank Rgt
Defending force 4439 troops, 25 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 70
30th Australian Brigade, Papuan Infantry Bn, 112 RAN Base Force

Japanese max assault: 357 - adjusted assault: 325
Allied max defense: 65 - adjusted defense: 113
Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 3)

Japanese ground losses:
162 casualties reported
Guns lost 2
Vehicles lost 1

Allied ground losses:
260 casualties reported
Guns lost 5

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Japanese surface TF bombarded Pago Pago, AAR below. The second group of Japanese TF(s) detected northeast of Pago Pago in the 2/15 game turn moved all the way to Pago Pago from their previous spotted position - these ships moved too fast in the 2/16 turn to be transports, could possibly be more surface warships.

I have numerous small convoys with U.S. reinforcements to South and SW Pacific moving well to the southeast of Pago Pago, including two full divisions, two RCT, and a Marine Para. A surface combat TF consisting of 3 old BB's (Idaho class) and a CL is sailing with these convoys as an escort. Some of the reinforcements in these convoys had been earmarked for Pago Pago but I could consider using much or all of this force to mount a quick counterattack if Japanese surface naval forces leave the area and the KB is not operating nearby (both of these being unknown factors).

My worst case scenario is to reinforce and build up the small islands to the south and southeast of Pago Pago - including Papeete and Penhryn Island, although I view this move as being of little value in the short to intermediate run. Japanese control of Pago Pago and surrounding islands in the group would result in a major naval base from which the KB could easily operate all the way to the southern map edge. This would result in Australia and New Zealand being totally cut off from communication with the U.S.

My best hope is for no Japanese landing on Pago Pago.

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Naval bombardment of Pago Pago, at 96,113 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

76 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Japanese Ships
CA Kako, Shell hits 8
CA Furutaka, Shell hits 10
CA Kinugasa, Shell hits 10
CA Aoba, Shell hits 1


Allied ground losses:
136 casualties reported
Guns lost 7
Vehicles lost 2

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DEI: Japanese landing underway at Kragen (Java, west of Surabaja). Dutch defences on Java include most LCU concentrated in Batavia and Surabaja, with a smaller garrison at Tilitjap. Only a handful of the Dutch aircraft remaining on Java are operational, most having been destroyed or damaged in earlier combat.

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 2/17 -2/18/42

Lots of stuff, starting with the "small change".

India: Completed disembarking 7 Australian Div at Colombo. I have all available British land-based torpedo squadrons (Swordfish & Wildebeest) based at Colombo or Trincomalee - this to engage any Japanese TF either attacking Ceylon or passing around the bottom of India. Two squadrons of Hurricanes arrived in Colombo on 2/18, another Hurricane squadron or two in Ceylon a possibility. If the KB wants to hit this place, let 'em pay for it.

Moving several Indian infantry brigades evacuated from Singapore via overland march to Delhi and other inland bases with 20K or more supply to speed rebuilding. No other significant action elsewhere in Burma.

Burma: No change in the overall situation. Japanese 55th Division still engaged at Rangoon making only bombardment
attacks. No detected movement of Japanese ground forces to the NW towards Mandalay - they have either stopped at Meiktila or melted into the jungle. Either way, I have something in front of them.

DEI: Kragen and Djokjakarta on Java fell to the Japanese on 2/17. Jap 2 Parachute Rgt probably air dropped on Djokjakarta as no ships were observed disembarking it. The capture of these two location splits Java in two, however this is a major consideration only to the Japanese as all Dutch LCU are in place in the strongholds at Batavia, Surabaja, and Tlitijap and land communications between these strongholds no longer required by Allied forces.

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Ground combat at Kragen

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 21686 troops, 180 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 405
2nd & 18th Infantry Divisions; 2, 6 & 14 Tank Rgts, 3 & 18 Heavy FA Rgts; 3, 5 & 14 Mortar Bns, 3 Mountain Gun Rgt
Defending force 0 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 0

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1
Japanese max assault: 166 - adjusted assault: 41
Allied max defense: 0 - adjusted defense: 1
Japanese assault odds: 41 to 1 (fort level 1)
Japanese forces CAPTURE Kragen base !!!

It should be noted that Japanese units engaged at Kragen were brought in from Singapore.

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Ground combat at Djokjakarta

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 465 troops, 3 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2
2 Parachute Rgt
Defending force 0 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 0

Japanese max assault: 0 - adjusted assault: 2
Allied max defense: 0 - adjusted defense: 1
Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 2)
Japanese forces CAPTURE Djokjakarta base !!!

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No detected Japanese activity elsewhere in the DEI.

Australia: Air bombing attacks continue at Darwin. ANZAC HQ and other units still moving towards Darwin and NW Australia to support Allied defenses there.

14 NZ Brigade now disembarking at Noumea.

U.S. West Coast and Eastern Pacific: One RCT and supply points currently disembarking at Palmyra. A task force carrying engineers and supply left Pearl Harbor on 2/18 enroute to Christmas Is to begin building up base facilities there. No detected Japanese activity in this area.

[wneumann]

Now on to the South Pacific...

Japanese invasion of Pago Pago is imminent - situation maps from 2/17 and 2/18 follow.

[wneumann]

Situation map from 2/18/42

[wneumann]

For the moment.... keep in mind the location and heading of CV Kaga and Soryu. This all may be concidence but somehow I doubt it - the map below describes what they are going after and how the IJN found they were there.

[wneumann]

Which brings me to this issue..... Once upon a time the Southeast Pacific consisted of thousands and thousands of square miles of empty ocean. Now it is no wider than the English Channel - every ship from Baja to Buenos Aires that's crossing the Pacific passes through this one hex wide shipping channel. And it takes only one Jap submarine to spot them all. Is this easy or what???

In all fairness, Pillager and I did not include any considerations for this in our PBEM house rules.

I did take the matter up in another string (CHS questions), this being the first part of a conversation between myself and AB. I was responding to a statement by AB indicating there was no need for house rules on the shipping lanes.

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this is what I posted... I'll let AB speak for himself (refer to the CHS questions string)


Do have one comment about the Aden & Panama City sea tracks. I'm currently in a PBEM with Jolly Pillager (scenario 158 extended map) now in Feb, 1942. We don't have any house rules in our PBEM concerning the sea tracks to Aden or Panama City, these are open to IJN entry. So far in our PBEM, Pillager has only sent submarines into the tracks. Which leads to my point....

With Canton and Baker I. under Japanese control, and Pillager beginning a move on Pago Pago, the only (at least semi-)secure sea route of communications remaining between the U.S. and Australia/New Zealand is through the sea tracks going southward from Panama City. Any other route being highly vulnerable to Japanese LBA and the KB (neither of which the Allies have any effective countermeasures to mount against them in the game as of 2/42). Makes perfect sense to shift my transport routes farther south into the Pacific in response to this situation.

BUT... Instead of thousands (upon thousands) of square miles of open ocean in the Southern Pacific, I have a one-hex (60 mile) wide sea channel not much wider than the English Channel in which Pillager continuously keeps one or more Japanese submarine(s) on station - and I can hardly fault him for taking advantage of the opportunity. While the Jap submarines do not inflict any serious losses on my shipping, they do provide Pillager with a 100% probability of detecting every ship, TF, or convoy I send out of Panama City. It is only a matter of time before the Japanese "clamp a zone of control" on both southern exits of the sea channel ftom Panama City using the KB or a Japanese surface combat TF. This basically ends any non-suicidal sea communication from the U.S. to Australia/NZ.

For a PBEM, I would strongly recommend two house rules regarding the sea lanes to Aden and Panama City. (1) Prohibit IJN movement into the sea channels. (2) Establish a (2-3 hex radius) zone around each exit from the sea channels that is also prohibited to IJN activity.

While these house rules would not prevent the IJN from blockading sea routes from Aden or Panama City, they would require the Japanese player to expend a little more effort. Without any house rules, it is too easy for the Japanese.

As for my own PBEM with Pillager, we have the house rules set and I'll have to live with them somehow.

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Not sure at this point what consequence this will have on the outcome of my PBEM, though I expect it to be substantial if not decisive. My projection is that Australia and NZ will eventually be on their own with no major reinforcements arriving from the U.S. I may be able to slip individual ships through but not convoys of any size. Although if I can keep Pillager engaged down there, a central or northern long-term strategy could end up being feasible come '43 or '44. Of course, destroying most or all of the KB solves the problem too, though that is a long way off.

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Not getting into sour grapes, BUT. Other than completely giving up Australia, NZ, and the South Pacific as there is no longer a non-suicidal route for shipping from the U.S. .... It is one thing for the IJN to interdict my shipping routes, doing it with a 100% probability of detecting every allied ship, convoy, or TF with a single SS over what is supposed to be thousands of miles of open water is kinda stretching it.

For the moment I'm gonna have to play on and try to dodge the KB as best as possible, it's too late to abort these ships and as many of them as possible will have to go somewhere.

Beyond that, how feasible is it to change house rules in mid-stream? Before or after he sinks everything? Not sure exactly how to approach this. Any advice is welcome.

This is a considerable advantage to the Japanese that has no basis IRL and has a very considerable impact in the overall outcome of the game.

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 2/19 - 2/20/42

India: Still "setting up shop". Areas that I am placing emphasis on for defending India are (1) the eastern border with Burma, (2) ports and bases along the eastern coast of India, (3) Ceylon including both Colombo and Trincomalee.

At this point, ships in port have been moved from ports on the eastern coast of India (Madras, Diamond Harbor, Calcutta) and re-based in Aden or along the west coast of India. Ship movements in the Bay of Bengal are at a minimum, most travel into eastern India being done overland to the greatest extent possible. The Bay of Bengal is basically a cul-de-sac, especially with the "reef hexside" blocking the strait between Ceylon and the Indian mainland, relatively easy for the IJN to trap ships against the Indian east coast.

Defensive preparations on Ceylon progressing well. Bases along the eastern coast of India are garrisoned in at least brigade strength (more where possible and feasible to do so). Naval search air squadrons (Hudsons) are based to detect Japanese sea movements approaching Ceylon or southern India.

Still moving LCU and aircraft from Aden to the Indian mainland and Ceylon. Looks like there are pretty good RAF base units that can support a very substantial number of aircraft and a network of air bases - getting as many of these as possible onto the Indian mainland.

Burma: Taung Gyi quietly fell to the Japanese on 2/19 - have no idea as to what Japanese LCU moved into there, but next stop for them is probably Lashio. I have some of the (Southeast Asia) Chinese divisions already in Lashio, with their communications back into China secured as well. A Chinese Il-4 bomber squadron is now based at Kunming and flying recon missions into Japanese occupied areas of Burma. Il-4 range is good enough to cover almost all of Burma, much of Siam and northern Indochina - these planes are more valuable assets for recon than using them as bombers.

China: Front lines mostly static at this time - Japanese bombardments at a number of places but no major offensive activity.

DEI: Japanese landing at Merak (Java) on 2/20 - identity of Jap LCU(s) not known.

Australia: Elements of USAFFE HQ evacuated from Bataan arrived at Darwin. ANZAC HQ along with air base LCU's still enroute to NW Australia to better draw supply into that area and build up of air bases to oppose Japanese activity there. Otherwise, "housekeeping" activities continue.

South Pacific: Convoys from Panama City are still enroute - movement of convoys changed to avoid possible KB task force (Kaga and Soryu) detected on 2/18 moving SE from Pago Pago. I have no way of confirming the KB is or is not moving on this course, but must assume the KB is still on this course until I can otherwise confirmed the KB is on a different course or left the area. I'm gonna have to look at how to better manage the SE corner of the map - establish small bases at Papaete, Rarotonga, Penhryn Is, Tongatapu with capabilty to at least do naval air search (PBY & Do-24). AV and AVD with adequate logistical support would work well here too.

Eastern Pacific and U.S. West Coast: U.S. 161 RCT now fully disembarked on Palmyra. A small convoy from Pearl Harbor transporting engineers (804th EAB) and supply is enroute to Christmas Island to start a build up of that base.

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 2/21 - 2/23/42

China: Most sectors relatively quiet. No major Japanese ground attacks.

India: Construction to expand airfields at inland bases in NE India (Patna, Asansol, Rangpur) progressing well. British aircraft and base units have been arriving through Bombay and moving overland to occupy the new bases.

Burma (see situation map below): Little or no visible Japanese activity in most sectors other than air attacks on Rangoon and Mandalay.

[wneumann]

Philippines: Japanese air and ground bombardment attacks continue at Bataan and Cagayan - otherwise no detected Japanese activity.

DEI: (situation map of Java below)

Japanese Guards (2nd) Division continues advancing towards western end of Sumatra - Kuala captured on 2/21.

The majority of Japanese ground units now in Java and Sumatra have been brought in from Singapore where they were engaged vs British forces in Malaya - including Guards Division (western Sumatra); 2nd, 5th, and 18th Division on Java along with many smaller LCU (artillery, engineer, NLF). Of the Japanese divisions participating in the capture of Singapore, only the 4th Division remains unaccounted for.

Japanese landing at Bali on 2/23 - AAR as follows.

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Ground combat at Bali

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 526 troops, 2 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 11
Sasebo 3 SNLF
Defending force 1950 troops, 11 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 55
Bali Detachment


Japanese landing at Merak (western Java) on 2/21 - AAR as follows

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Ground combat at Merak
Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 9477 troops, 31 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 533
5th Infantry Division, 4 Mixed Rgt, 17 Hvy FA Rgt, 10 Mountain Gun Rgt

Defending force 0 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 0

Japanese max assault: 408 - adjusted assault: 818
Allied max defense: 0 - adjusted defense: 1
Japanese assault odds: 818 to 1 (fort level 2)
Japanese forces CAPTURE Merak base !!!

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Elements of Japanese army on Java breaks out from their beachhead at Kragen - AAR follows

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Ground combat at Madioen
Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 25897 troops, 248 guns, 46 vehicles, Assault Value = 527
2nd Infantry Division; 2,6 &14 Tank Rgts; 3,5,& 14 Mortar Bns, 3 & 18 Heavy FA Rgts,
3 & 10 Mountain Gun Rgts
Defending force 0 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 0

Japanese max assault: 390 - adjusted assault: 372
Allied max defense: 0 - adjusted defense: 1
Japanese assault odds: 372 to 1 (fort level 2)
Japanese forces CAPTURE Madioen base !!!

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
Brewster 339D: 5 destroyed
Martin 139: 1 destroyed

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Japanese air bombing of Batavia and Soerabaja continues.

[wneumann]

Australia: Japanese forces landed at Thursday Island on 2/23 - AAR follows. Australian Torres Strait CD unit based at Thursday Island holding out. Numerous Japanese ships damaged by fire from shore batteries.

Four U.S. squadrons of B-17D & E (38 aircraft total) are currently based at Charters Towers - unfortunatly this base is out of range from Thursday Island.

1st Australian Motor Brigade is moving northward from Cairns to occupy base at Coen.

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Ground combat at Thursday Island

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 1842 troops, 6 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 23
Torres Strait CD
Defending force 6686 troops, 24 guns, 43 vehicles, Assault Value = 193
Kure 5 & 6 SNLF, 5 Yokosuka SNLF, 6 Reserve Tank Rgt

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AAR reports for coastal gunfire and attack by U.S. submarine S-38 below taken from Japanese AAR on 2/23/42.

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Coastal Guns at Thursday Island, 49,91, firing at TF 236
TF 236 troops unloading over beach at Thursday Island, 49,91


338 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Japanese Ships
AK Tsuneshima Maru
PG Choko Maru #2, Shell hits 3, on fire
AK Korei Maru, Shell hits 4, on fire
PC Kyo Maru #11, Shell hits 1
PC Kyo Maru #2, Shell hits 4
PG Chiyo Maru, Shell hits 4
PG Nikkai Maru
PC Ch 15
PG Choan Maru #2, Shell hits 2
AP Nachi Maru
PG Nanpo Maru, Shell hits 2
AP Daihachikyo Maru, Shell hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
AP Takayo Maru, Shell hits 1
AP Sumire Maru

Japanese ground losses:
669 casualties reported
Vehicles lost 3

Allied ground losses:
52 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

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Coastal Guns at Thursday Island, 49,91, firing at TF 236
TF 236 troops unloading over beach at Thursday Island, 49,91


90 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Japanese Ships
PC Fumi Maru, Shell hits 1
PC Takunan Maru #2
PG Chohakusan Maru, Shell hits 4
PC Ch 13, Shell hits 1
PC Tama Maru #8
PG Chiyo Maru

Japanese ground losses:
263 casualties reported
Vehicles lost 1
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Sub attack near Thursday Island at 49,91

Japanese Ships
AK Korei Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
PC Ch 16
PC Ch 15
PC Ch 14
PC Ch 13
PC Ch 3
PC Ch 2

Allied Ships
SS S-38, hits 3

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ASW attack near Thursday Island at 49,91

Japanese Ships
PC Ch 16
PC Ch 15
PC Ch 14
PC Ch 13

Allied Ships
SS S-38, hits 4

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South Pacific: Convoys with U.S. LCU, aircraft, supply and fuel have continued moving westward and still enroute. Japanese shore bombardment on Pago Pago - AAR follows.

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Naval bombardment of Pago Pago, at 96,113 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

19 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Japanese Ships
CA Kako
CA Furutaka, Shell hits 1
CA Kinugasa
CA Aoba, Shell hits 2

Allied ground losses:
25 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

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Eastern Pacific and U.S. West Coast: no major activity to report.

[wneumann]

Just as a footnote..............
 
An agreement between Pillager and I to amend the house rules for our PBEM regarding shipping channels has been implemented as follows effective with the 2/22/42 game turn.
 
1: If the IJN decides to invade/ raid Panama or the Galapagos it is free to do so. These raids would be by Carrier air or by surface action and would not be allowed to loiter in the channels for a prolonged period of time, but must move to the target and then away after the attack.

2: Submarines would not be permitted into the channels nor any closer than 5 hexes from an exit (allowing some space for Allied ships to disperse into) nor can loitering raiders be closer than 5 hexes from the exits of these channels (though a Kates range is 5 hexes, so it would be able to attack ships coming out of the channels).

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 2/24 - 2/25

Burma: Rangoon fell to Japanese on 2/24 - AAR follows.

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Ground combat at Rangoon

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 10342 troops, 60 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 327
55th Infantry Division
Defending force 3107 troops, 46 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 81
2 Burma Brigade

Japanese max assault: 654 - adjusted assault: 2360
Allied max defense: 82 - adjusted defense: 39
Japanese assault odds: 60 to 1 (fort level 2)
Japanese forces CAPTURE Rangoon base !!!

Japanese ground losses:
307 casualties reported
Guns lost 5

Allied ground losses:
159 casualties reported
Guns lost 8

Defeated Allied Units Retreating! (2 Burma Brigade destroyed)

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Australia: Thursday Island captured by Japanese on 2/24 - AAR follows.

1st Australian Motor Brigade is moving up to occupy base at Coen (north of Cooktown). There is a open beach hex NE of Coen opposite Port Moresby - I suspect that a Japanese landing could be possible there as well. While I do not have sufficient forces to oppose a landing at this beach hex, this hex will be within range of aircraft based elsewhere in NE Australia including four B-17D & E squadrons (35-40 aircraft total) at Charter Towers.

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Ground combat at Thursday Island

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 6531 troops, 23 guns, 45 vehicles, Assault Value = 192
Kure 5 & 6 SNLF, 5 Yokosuka SNLF, 6 Reserve Tank Rgt
Defending force 1782 troops, 6 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 23
Torres Strait CD

Japanese max assault: 320 - adjusted assault: 92
Allied max defense: 17 - adjusted defense: 19
Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 2)
Japanese forces CAPTURE Thursday Island base !!!

Japanese ground losses:
175 casualties reported
Guns lost 2
Vehicles lost 1

Allied ground losses:
1959 casualties reported
Guns lost 2

(Torres Strait CD eliminated)

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South Pacific: Convoys bound to the South Pacific theater with U.S. reinforcements and materiel were intercepted and attacked by three Japanese carrier TF's southwest of Papaete (Society Is). Three transport TF's were attacked, approx 15-20 AK and AP were sunk or heavily damaged. Three U.S. LCU (183 U.S. FA Rgt, 14 RCT, and 43 GS Engineer Rgt) carried by the attacked TF's were wiped out.

At this point, it is necessary to raise the question whether the South and Southeast Pacific islands can be defended. Some considerations to look at include...

a) Situation at Pago Pago - only a question of when it is going to fall. Once Pago Pago is under Japanese control, communication between the U.S. west coast and Australia/New Zealand is effectively blockaded all the way to the southern map edge.

b) For at least the next 4-6 months or more, no effective Allied opposition is possible against the KB given the current U.S. inferiority in number of CV, and inferior numbers and quality of aircraft on those CV's. The Zero's combat bonus remains in effect (though it does diminish) until 5/42, tilting the advantage in air-to-air combat even more in the Japanese favor.

c) Lack of effective means to monitor movements of the KB - while it can't be everywhere at once, without adequate means to track its movements it has to be assumed that the KB (in part or entirely) can be anywhere at any given time except on those few occasions where it whereabouts is known. This makes it impossible to have any secure line of communication between the U.S. and South Pacific given the resources currently at hand and the distances involved.

d) Remaining bases in the Southeast Pacific (Society Islands, Rarotonga, Penhryn Is) are too small to support Allied bases or defenses without a build up. An adequate build up of these bases is not possible given the present circumstances.

e) The KB easily outruns any Allied convoy - KB has more than twice the sea movement speed of any Allied transport convoy and can easily be dispatched to intercept any Allied shipping once that shipping is detected.


Based on the considerations above, the following strategic conclusions have been reached.

1) It is not possible to transport reinforcements and materiel from the U.S. to points in the South and Southwest Pacific without extremely heavy losses in ships, LCU, and aircraft. At this time, the majority of anything sent would be intercepted and sunk. Therefore all shipping from the U.S. to the South Pacific has been stopped effective immediately until further notice. Remaining convoys enroute from the U.S. have been aborted and ordered to turn back.

2) No further attempt to defend islands in the South Pacific will be made. Aircraft based on these islands will be withdrawn to New Zealand or Australia as soon as possible. Allied LCU that can be evacuated from island bases to Australia or New Zealand will do so as the situation permits.

3) Australia and New Zealand will have to defend themselves with what is on hand locally, unless an alternate means of getting resources there can be implemented. Even given what is now available in Australia and New Zealand, these places are too big for the Japanese to "swallow up" whole.

4) While control of the South Pacific is effectively being surrendered to the Japanese, the Japanese will find it necessary to occupy it and stretch out its resources to do so. A Japanese advance, even unopposed, will consume time and resources.

The strategic situation outlined here will prevail as long as the KB continues to exist in its present form and size. At such time as sufficient Japanese CV's are sunk or damaged to alter the balance in the Allies' favor, any effective Allied strategy in the South Pacific is completely untenable.

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 2/26/42

DEI: IJA ground units reached Soerabaja on 2/25 - activity so far limited to bombardment attacks. AAR follows. Japanese captured Djokjakarta (Java) on 2/26.

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Ground combat at Soerabaja

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 6554 troops, 178 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 484
2nd Infantry Division; 3,5,& 14 Mortar Bns; 6 & 14 Tank Rgts; 3 & 18 FA Rgts, 10 Mountain Gun Rgt
Defending force 17349 troops, 135 guns, 4 vehicles, Assault Value = 275
4th & 6th KNIL Infantry Rgts, MLD Marine Bn, 6 CD Bn, 1 Dutch Naval Base Force

Allied ground losses:
165 casualties reported
Guns lost 2

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South Pacific: So where did the KB go? Overall weather conditions in the Southeast Pacific area was Heavy Precipitation on 2/26 which likely hampered naval air search operations by the KB during the last game turn. Weather forecast for this area on 2/27 is for overcast conditions which should improve the KB's naval air search wherever it is located now.

All Allied TF in the area have turned around and begun moving eastward.

U.S. reinforcements loaded aboard these convoys and the ships carrying them are more useful on the "main front" (Eastern Pacific) rather than being isolated in the Australia/New Zealand "pocket" or else disembarked on an island they will be unable to defend effectively (and eventually be destroyed in that defense), giving Pillager even more "free" VP's above and beyond capturing the base. Also, I have to consider that most ships in these TF's continuing to their original destinations (be it Australia, NZ, or elsewhere in the South Pacific) would at best be cut off from returning to the U.S. or possibly sunk while attempting to return.

VP situation in this PBEM as of 2/26/42 is just less than 3:1 in favor of Japanese (9400 to 3200) - and I expect this to get much worse. My goals at this point is (1) force preservation and (2) avoiding automatic Japanese victory in 1/43. As far as avoiding automatic Japanese victory is concerned, I'm anticipating the VP ratio to slip past 4:1 in the near term and see myself fighting back in late '42 to get it back under 4:1. Force preservation and concentrating it where I have the best chance of success later is the only course of action to improve my chances.

If this were a poker game, there is no chance of winning the current hand. Any small bluff I can make as a smokescreen, fine. Otherwise keep as many chips as I can, and hope for some good hands later.

Whether I defend the South Pacific or not, this PBEM is gonna be a very difficult road.