AI for MWIF - Poland

[Mike Dubost]

ORIGINAL: Incy

There's a reserve in koenigsberg, I belive.

Yes, there is a reserve there. On the other hand, it does not set-up until the Allied DOWs on Germany at the start of the first Allied impulse, whereas the Poles set up on the German impulse. Thus, it is of no use in this situation. On the gripping hand [:'(],* as pointed out by others above, it would be a major error on the part of Germany that would leave East Prussia out of supply.

* I just decided to add the explanation of the reference. I think it was Niven and Pournell who wrote The Mote in God's Eye and The Gripping Hand. The two science-fiction novels include 3-armed alliens with 2 hands set up for fine control / manipulation, and one real strong hand for grabbing things.

[brian brian]

The AI set-up for Poland is important and would be worth monitoring in the playtesting.

Try this one ... watch the Germans go heavy in East Prussia, medium around Breslau, set up for another campaign like Netherlands or Belgium or France or Yugoslavia, and light in Czechoslovakia. Then set up the extra Poles in Katowice. Poland is going to fall, always. The question is, how can you cost the Germans a few points of something, and maybe gain the Allies some goodies for the future? Remember that the production phase is before conquest, and you can't transport resources through a ZoC. Putting single stacked blocking units in clear terrain around the factories I don't think gains very much...even in bad weather the powerful German units can auto-kill any single Polish unit, losing only the time required. Worrying about trying to use the Vistula to Poland's advantage only works when the Germans are heavy in East Prussia; otherwise they just bulldoze straight across the center. When the Poles are double-stacked, the chances of actually hurting the Germans go up, and in a best-case scenario they get flipped/disorganized attacking a double stack, then the bad weather sets in. Also keep in mind that the CW might want to take a Naval impulse on their first go, to move some units and re-org some transports.

With a light East Prussian set-up, the same trick could work in Danzig...maybe the Polish navy might even survive the surprise impulse that way. But a key to the set-up is whether Germany is attempting any other campaign on the first turn. One way to analyze it is to simply count the factors adjacent to Poland, which is how some German players plan the campaign to begin with, figuring on a minimum of around 65-70 combat factors to subdue the Poles, leaving the rest for elsewhere. If Germany is up around 90-100, it doesn't really matter what the Poles do.

[yvesp]

In a non France first setup, the foremost point in the polish setup is to delay the conquest of Poland.
It is not impossible to reach the end of Sept/Oct with Varshaw under siege, but uncaptured.
It has happened that bad weather rolls kept Varshaw alive and kicking till January/February.
I remember a game where Poland fell only in March/April ; needless to say that the German player was aghast (he did not commit nearly enough troops east to be overwhelming, trying for an early Benelux attack, and paid the price). Anyway, it all went to nothing when he rolled some lucky dice in France and took Paris in May/June...

It is a real pain for the German who sees the time fly by when he knows he'll have to shift all these units back to the western front. Idealy, he wants to begin that shift back in the first turn, at impulse three or four.

Doing so requires that the Poles actually use their airforce, for the exclusive defense of Varshaw, where they'll end up the turn (hopefully). The fighter has to be used to try and prevent any strike (after the surprise impulse) on Varshaw proper (the odds are poor, I know), or protect the bomber (which helps a lot against the first assault on Varshaw). The HQ is setup in Brest-Litovsk (protected by the woods against GS), the 5-3 somewhere in range of Varshaw, as at least one other units.

For the other units, I don't recall well (it has been long since I last played). The point of the whole setup is to force the german to chose between slow crowling in ZOCs or attempting assaults with odds that give a chance of flipping units.

Reaching Nov/Dec with Poland alive is a strategic success for the allies as it may delay the German juggernaut in it's strike west.
Such an objective must be accounted for by the AIO (i.e. it is more valuable than destroying one German unit or keeping one or two pilots alive).

Yves

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: yvesp

In a non France first setup, the foremost point in the polish setup is to delay the conquest of Poland.
It is not impossible to reach the end of Sept/Oct with Varshaw under siege, but uncaptured.
It has happened that bad weather rolls kept Varshaw alive and kicking till January/February.
I remember a game where Poland fell only in March/April ; needless to say that the German player was aghast (he did not commit nearly enough troops east to be overwhelming, trying for an early Benelux attack, and paid the price). Anyway, it all went to nothing when he rolled some lucky dice in France and took Paris in May/June...

It is a real pain for the German who sees the time fly by when he knows he'll have to shift all these units back to the western front. Idealy, he wants to begin that shift back in the first turn, at impulse three or four.

Doing so requires that the Poles actually use their airforce, for the exclusive defense of Varshaw, where they'll end up the turn (hopefully). The fighter has to be used to try and prevent any strike (after the surprise impulse) on Varshaw proper (the odds are poor, I know), or protect the bomber (which helps a lot against the first assault on Varshaw). The HQ is setup in Brest-Litovsk (protected by the woods against GS), the 5-3 somewhere in range of Varshaw, as at least one other units.

For the other units, I don't recall well (it has been long since I last played). The point of the whole setup is to force the german to chose between slow crowling in ZOCs or attempting assaults with odds that give a chance of flipping units.

Reaching Nov/Dec with Poland alive is a strategic success for the allies as it may delay the German juggernaut in it's strike west.
Such an objective must be accounted for by the AIO (i.e. it is more valuable than destroying one German unit or keeping one or two pilots alive).

Yves

I agree completely.

[Taxman66]

Yes, but if there is overwhelming German forces (particularly FTR) then you are better off sending the Polish planes into interment via. the Baltic States.

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

Yes, but if there is overwhelming German forces (particularly FTR) then you are better off sending the Polish planes into interment via. the Baltic States.

Unless ground forces are overwhelming, using the polish air force is a very good bet.
* the loss of the pilots is not a sure thing
* using the polish air force costs the german some precious oil (not a big deal I know)
* using the polish air force forces the german to use these fighters which they'll likely have to rebase in the next turn to get them to the west front
* if the ground forces are not overwhelming, a success with a ground support may change the odds significantly enough to get a flip result

Hence, fleeing in the first allied impulse is just a way to ensure the german a cheap Polish victory.
I will almost always use the planes ; it's good if the pilots do survive. Otherwise, they'll have done their duty.

Yves

[Taxman66]

I think we'll have to agree to disagree; or perhaps I'm just used to 'conservative' German play where they do bring overwhelming ground and air forces.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

I think we'll have to agree to disagree; or perhaps I'm just used to 'conservative' German play where they do bring overwhelming ground and air forces.

One of the things about coding for the AIO is that you have to allow for different choices by the human player. In particular, if the Polish air force is always based in the far northeast and immediately flees, then the human players will quickly learn that and place zero ([;)]) fighters close to Poland.

[brian brian]

with the 2d10 and fractional odds, a few points of ground support matter very little.

I have forgotten though that a Polish pilot lost in combat with a low result does go right on to the track, same as interning it, and the Poles will be flying over their own hexes. but against a Poland only set-up, they will be likely fighting at +3/-3 or possibly worse, and if they don't get killed, they have to land in Poland and then the 2 BP are lost. run the AI through the first two impulses and see what the expected BP return for each side is by flying the Poles and you'll probably lean towards saving the pilots eventually too. The odds they accomplish anything are low.

Since the Poles always set up after the Germans, if the Germans don't commit FTR cover to the Polish front then by all means make them pay for that.

[Neilster]

I'm uneasy about too much "gameyness" in the minor set-ups. We have to remember that these were proud countries with militaries whose purpose was first and foremost to defend their territory, not to scarper in some clever way to contribute to the strategic cause.

Cheers, Neilster

[Taxman66]

It's not the threat of getting of Polish plane killed, it's the threat of it being aborted or of the GE player aborting himself after 1 round to cause a return to base (you can't intern on a RTB).

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Neilster

I'm uneasy about too much "gameyness" in the minor set-ups. We have to remember that these were proud countries with militaries whose purpose was first and foremost to defend their territory, not to scarper in some clever way to contribute to the strategic cause.

Cheers, Neilster

Actually, several of the South American countries had long held animosities with their neighboring countries, so the prospect of them attacking each other is not all that ahistorical. The unit write ups on the South American armies provide some information about those pre-WWII conflicts.
---
Upon reflection, it is probably impossible to find any two neighboring countries anywhere in the world that have not been at war with each other some time in the last 400 years.

[Neilster]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Neilster

I'm uneasy about too much "gameyness" in the minor set-ups. We have to remember that these were proud countries with militaries whose purpose was first and foremost to defend their territory, not to scarper in some clever way to contribute to the strategic cause.

Cheers, Neilster

Actually, several of the South American countries had long held animosities with their neighboring countries, so the prospect of them attacking each other is not all that ahistorical. The unit write ups on the South American armies provide some information about those pre-WWII conflicts.
---
Upon reflection, it is probably impossible to find any two neighboring countries anywhere in the world that have not been at war with each other some time in the last 400 years.

I was thinking more about Poland, Belgium, Holland etc. They fought courageously, even when it was obvious that their cause was lost. I think it is completely ahistorical to have them doing anything else.

Cheers, Neilster

[Norman42]

One way that I find to justify the 'gameyness' of having these European minors do anything but fight to the last man is remembering that most of these countries like Norway, Poland, Netherlands, found ways to smuggle thier national treasuries (the story of the smuggling of the Polish gold reserves through occupied territories is an epic tale in itself) to Britain/France to continue on the fight. So when a Polish plane stands down to save a few build points for the CW, I just think of it as 8000 bars of gold being heroically transported to the Allied cause.
 
In the case of the South American countries, most of them had fought wars against each other in the pre-war era, some of them quite devastating(google the Chaco War, or The War of the Pacific), so having them in 'marauder defences' does make sense.  They would rather pound thier neighbors then be shipped off to Europe.

[Incy]

Upon reflection, it is probably impossible to find any two neighboring countries anywhere in the world that have not been at war with each other some time in the last 400 years.

Norway and Russia have had a common border for ~1000 years, without ever having a war with each other (unless you count cold wars).
There are of course short periods where there was no border (like 1919-1945), and both countries have had various different configurations throughout the period (Norway bordered Novgorod, not Muscovy, for instance). Of course, this says little about the peaceful nature of the two peoples (or man), as this border is so desolate that any war was near impossible, and certainly not meaningful.
And anyways, the border area was originally mostly populated by lapps, which both countries have fought against and supressed.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Incy

Upon reflection, it is probably impossible to find any two neighboring countries anywhere in the world that have not been at war with each other some time in the last 400 years.

Norway and Russia have had a common border for ~1000 years, without ever having a war with each other (unless you count cold wars).
There are of course short periods where there was no border (like 1919-1945), and both countries have had various different configurations throughout the period (Norway bordered Novgorod, not Muscovy, for instance). Of course, this says little about the peaceful nature of the two peoples (or man), as this border is so desolate that any war was near impossible, and certainly not meaningful.
And anyways, the border area was originally mostly populated by lapps, which both countries have fought against and supressed.

Thanks.

I had thought about Sweden, which is why I went back 400 years, instead of 300.

[brian brian]

People playing WiF will always do ahistorical things, it's unavoidable - we know how the script turns out in the end. On the first turn, any smart French player sends two cruisers or maybe a SUB into the Baltic before the Germans can 'close' it. In real life, that would have been a suicidal mission unlikely to accomplish very much. But in WiF, it's only a couple of surplus cardboard pieces or computer icons. So why not do it? Human players will be doing whatever they can to play the rules system in the way most likely for them to win the game. The AI should do the same.

It's too bad it is good play to send the Polish air force away without fighting. In real life, I think the Poles shot down more German planes than the French did. But a lot of Poles did escape to fight another day, and the success of the Blitzkrieg and the unwavering commitment to resist on the part of the UK did set a precedent for military figures in other countries to follow later. It's only really possible for the Dutch, Belgians, Spanish, and Portugese, but it's not too difficult to imagine real life leaders deciding to save some portions of their military for use from colonial bases, especially after the bombings of Warsaw and Rotterdam. Even then, it's fairly rare to see in a game except for the Dutch navy (historical), and occasionally parts of the Spanish army deployed in Africa (probably not too historcial).

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Neilster

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Neilster

I'm uneasy about too much "gameyness" in the minor set-ups. We have to remember that these were proud countries with militaries whose purpose was first and foremost to defend their territory, not to scarper in some clever way to contribute to the strategic cause.

Cheers, Neilster

Actually, several of the South American countries had long held animosities with their neighboring countries, so the prospect of them attacking each other is not all that ahistorical. The unit write ups on the South American armies provide some information about those pre-WWII conflicts.
---
Upon reflection, it is probably impossible to find any two neighboring countries anywhere in the world that have not been at war with each other some time in the last 400 years.

I was thinking more about Poland, Belgium, Holland etc. They fought courageously, even when it was obvious that their cause was lost. I think it is completely ahistorical to have them doing anything else.

Cheers, Neilster

Warspite1

I take your point but I think if a minor is being attacked your opponent will set the units of that country up in such a way as to ensure that it is as difficult as possible to be conquered with the occasional exception. It is natural to look at the big picture to try and ensure that once conquered, you reap any benefits the rules give you. If that means keeping the Polish air force out of the way so you can grab the pilot then so be it. For me by far the most important thing is that the computer does not have just one set up and one tactic so that the game becomes predictable and you can work out fail safe plans of attack. That is the stated intention and why Peters hard work is so appreciated.

There are historical happenings that make this "gameyness" acceptable. The two Polish squadrons that fought in the Battle of Britain being the obvious example. Probably one of the key events in the Battle of the Atlantic - the transfer of the Dutch and particularly the Norwegian merchant shipping over to the UK.

[yvesp]

What I wanted to make sure of when I raised this issue was that the AIO for Poland would also not be predictable. Sometimes it should be able to fight to the bitter end ; sometimes it should decide that the air force (pilots) should be saved. Even in a given German setup, this should not be a given. If the German knows that if he sets up enough planes near Poland, the polish air force will flee like frightened birds, and if the polish air force indeed flees too soon, then the German is free to begin an immediate rebase of his airforce, using the one rebase he has in each land action (is that it ? it's been so long...). The longer the german has to wait, the better. The polish doesn't even have to use it : having their air force within range strands the German fighters as well.
Question : how much build points is it worth to have the German lose a turn to attack west ?

Yves

[Froonp]

ORIGINAL: yvesp
Question : how much build points is it worth to have the German lose a turn to attack west ?

In my opinion, it is worth 0 BP.
The German is not stranded with time between S/O 39 & M/J 40. He has a lot of time to do whatever he wants, and having the poles fall in N/D 39 or later is not a problem (other than in German pride).

Loosing the Polish Pilots on the other hand is a lot more costly for the CW, as it is an immediate loss of 2 air units that won't be bombing the Germans from N/D 39 to M/J 40, which is an enormous loss for the CW IMO.

For the German, killing the Polish Air Force in S/O 39 is a future pain in the ass relieved, so you should never make this present to them.