ORIGINAL: Jim D Burns
ORIGINAL: Historiker
But: My opinion is, that Operation Overlord wasn't needed to win the war. With the allied airforce, the need for garrisions in Norway, France and the Balkan, Russia can beat Germany allone - with US meterial help, of course! But if you look at what I've written, you see that the russians allone were already able to destroy all of germanys offensive capacity until 1944. Of course, meanwhile several tank divisions were sent into the west to counter the expected invasion.
Without the threat of an allied invasion in France, Germany could have easily sent 20-30 (or more) of the 70 or so divisions it had in the west to the Russian front. That would have made a significant difference in the power struggle on the ground there.
By mid to late 1944, Russia's manpower pools were drying up because of the way its high command wasted lives. So there is a case to be made that Russia would have failed on its own. Stalin was very insistent that the allies open the second front because of the drain the war was having on his military. I doubt he'd have demanded it so insistently if it was a foregone conclusion as you seem to imply.
Jim
You mustn't forget that several of the divisions in the west were understrengthend and often only divisions by name. Many were filled with incapable men and more static divisions by both men and material than usual battle divisions. These divisions can't be used in Russia anyway.
On 6. June 1944, Heeresgruppe G under Blaskowitz had:
13 IDs: (158),708,(159),(276),(272),(277),(271),189,(157),(148),338,244,242
1 Pz-Gren Division: (17. SS)
3 Tank Divisions: (11.), 2. SS, 9.
Heeresgruppe B under rommel had:
32 IDs: (275),265,343,353,266,77,319,243,81,709,352,716,711,348,84,17 GAF,348,245,344,85,49,326,47,(331),(182),48,19 GAF,712,(165),719,347,16. GAF
2 Para Divisions: 3,(5)
7 Tank Divisions: Pz. Lehr, 21. Pz. (12. SS), 116., 2., (1. SS), 19. Pz.
All in () were not combat capable by usual terms. Moreover, many of the deployed infantry divisions were Coastal- or training divisions with a very low fighting power.
So the amount of transferable divisions was really limited, especially as I assume the thread of invasion should exist on. If you look at the Collaps of Heeresgruppe Mitte (Army group center) in 1944, you'll see that the effecitve fighting power in the east was annihilated then. The russians only stopped their adwance because they were exausted and their supply ran low, not because the Germans stopped them.
What I say is, that I doubt that the few transferable divisions from the west can make the difference, especially when Hitlers in command and not von Manstein.
The war might have ended not before 1946 as I sayed before, but I doubt without an invasion (but the rest as historical) it would've ended in another way.
Germanys manpower in 1944 wasn't just drying, it was gone. All divisions now created where filled with children, foreign (force-)recruted, old men and most urgently needed workers. IMO, Germanys menpower situation was much worse than the russian.
I think Stalin demanded the second front to help him, no doubt. Even if you expect to win, you usually don't say to often "No, we don't want your help, we can do it alone". Youst look at Iraqi Freedom. Did the US need these 200 or so Polish soldiers and the few hundred Aussies and some thousand Brits? Of course, the US could have crushed Saddams Army allone, but the "can" doesn't mean the "must".
In difference to Japan, I doubt that this was a barely political descicion. Most of the Allies didn't realize that they were not just fighting Hitler but that they also had a Hitler on their own side... I rather think that they wanted to participate in the vitory, secure Britain from German Bombing, Liberate the Low Countrys and France and defeat Germany. The Britains also began reconquering Burma despite the US would shurely win the war alone against Japan - still, they did it for good other reasons than the thinking this was the war deciding step.
Also, Stalins plea for help was for very good reasons in 1941, 1942 and 1943. Until the defeat at Kursk, the wehrmacht was still a fearsome enemy that was able to inflict horrible casualtys. So a western Front was asked for to lessen the pressure on Soviet Russia.
In 1944, this wasn't needed anymore to win the war, but it was still very helpul to weaken the enemy and to make the own war more easy. Just compare it with Germany's alliance with Romania. Were the romanian troops urgently needed, were they the descicive key for the vitorys in 1941? I'd say no, but still it was nicer to have them helping (and assure they won't fall into the German flanks).
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