Mini KB (2 CVE + 1 CVL) was positioned east of Luzon to intercept any ship trying to escape.
Results went well above our expectations. According to our opponent 98 % of the Asiatic fleet was destroyed in 4 days including 24 submarines + 1 sunked in Iba, in total more than 80 ships. Ships trying to escape from Hong Kong were also trapped. Bombing of Manila and Clark Field lasted during 3 consecutives days and achieved destruction of every damaged ship. We used only bombs and no torpedoes. Only one bomb of 800 kg and sometimes 250 kg is sufficient to annihilate a submarine. Big disappointment was CA Houston’s escape which has survived to 3 torpedo attacks conducted with Nells and Bettys without any damage.
A lot of US fighters in Manila, Iba and Clark Field were destroyed but B17 succeeded to escape. After 5 days of raid allied air force on Luzon was no more effective.
In the following days we split KB in 2. 3 CV were sent to support the invasion of Wake and Rabaul, reinforced by 2 CVL.
3 CV and mini KB stayed in Celebes and Java Seas south of Borneo to avoid any Dutch ships to escape and to sustain invasion of these islands.
At January 25th 1942 Balikpapan and Tarakan are in Japanese hands as well as Manado, Manila, Malacca, Amboina, Rabaul, Wake.
With this strategy we have been able to seize Palembang on January 18th and to land on Java on January 21th.
Singapore will fail probably in 3 or 4 days.
The main advantages to launch a surprise raid on December 7th on Manila compare to the historical start to my opinion are the following:
- Speed the invasion of Borneo, Java, and Sumatra due to the decisive support and early positioning of 5 CV which has discouraged any allied initiative or counterattack.
- Leave to Japanese player more strategic options after the capture of Java and Sumatra at an early stage where the Allied player has been able to bring reinforcements.
- Even if the US submarines have dud torpedoes, in 1 case every 3, these torpedoes are functional and are able to sink a transport, a tanker or a cargo. So it’s a thread to cope with. With this strategy this threat has disappeared. Japanese have still to fight with the Dutch and British submarines with are rather effective. One of them succeeded to torpedo big liner Argentina Maru in Palembang harbor.
Chinese sea and approach of Honshu are very peaceful, so convoys can sail safely with very low commitment of escorts. We have lost only 1 AO in the vicinity of Luzon in 7 weeks due to submarine actions.
(In an another game with historical start where I am playing on the Allied side, in 4 weeks even with dud torpedoes problem, US entire Asiatic submarine fleet has been able to sink a dozen of transport and cargo, some of them full of troops. Compare to the Manila gambit Japanese side is 4 to 5 weeks behind for invasion of Dutch East Indies)
- Put at bay Dutch bombers and ABDA fleet which have sustained heavy losses due to the action of the 5 CV. Remnants of the ABDA fleet have withdrawn from the Dutch East Indies.
- Avoid any escape of Dutch troops and evacuation of oil, resources or fuel to Australia.
Drawbacks of this strategy are not yet visible.
As underlined by others Pear Harbor’s fleet is intact but the old BBs will not be effective as long as the US side will not have air domination with his CV on Pacific Ocean. It will take at least one year to achieve it.
Most important drawback is to leave intact airplanes and auxiliary ships which are able in a very short term to sustain development of basis along the California-Australia sea road.
Inconvenient at this stage of the game are not so important compare to the advantages.
Only future will tell us if it’s a good strategy or not and if the Allies will recover more quickly with this opening move than with historical start.
Here are the lists of the ships sunk in 4 days in Luzon or around Bornéo and Mindanao. A important blow against the allied navies.
[/img]
