Barbarossa: Analysis of Casualties
The Soviet to German infantry loss ratio in this scenario surpasses France which was about 10.5 to 1 .
In this scenario, the loss ratio is 20 to 1. This somewhat validates my effectiveness measure,
(Infantry level x Avg Infantry/Regiment x Average Inf XP/Regiment)
In Belgium, the loss ratio was 6 to 1 and the average effectiveness of the Germans around a 6
In France, as mentioned the loss ratio was 10.5 to 1 and the average effectiveness of the Germans was a 12.
In Barbarossa, the loss ratio is 20 to 1 and the average effectiveness is 22.
Though other factors influence these results, it's interesting that the line up so nicely.
Below are the average infantry strengths of the Corps: the percentage is percentage of infantry using the '41 refit as the baseline, the percentage in parenthesis is the size of the unit relative to the beginning of the campaign
IV Corps (12 infantry regiments): 342 INF at 95% (71%) strength; 43 XP
IX Corps (9 infantry regiments): 261 INF at 93% (72%) strength; 55 XP
XXVII Corps (8 infantry regiments): 265 INF at 89% (73%) strength; 53 XP
XI Corps (10 infantry regiments): 318 INF at 94% (86%) strength; 50 XP
Total: (39 infantry regiments) 1306 INF at 93% (75%) strength; 50 XP
It is interesting that casualty rates are at about 7% instead of the 25% in Belgium.
Yet, it's hard to draw conclusions why because it could either be the experience x level effect (as suggested by the Sixth Army Training Center simulations) or it could be the overall low level of readiness by the Soviet forces, who were caught off balance.
The next scenario should be a better test.
