Illinois Yankee in the Showa Emperor's Court (Q-Ball v Canoe)

[Jaroen]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Checking in on vacation, this is a great discussion! You guys are making me think. I agree with alot of the comments, and I will have an important decision to make shortly, as soon as Singapore falls (which should be about Jan 20 in game terms). Once that happens, I need to re-prep all those units. Where are they going?

Ceylon v India is an important question. Noone has tried a full-out invasion of India yet, so there isn't a guide.

I do agree with one thing: An initial landing on India probably has to include a very deep landing all the way close to Bombay/Karachi to set-up Betty cover over those ports. I haven't scouted that yet, but if you can't stop the Allies from moving troops in, you can't stop them period. In fact, you really need to cover the entire coast, because the Allies can send convoys from any point off the map.

Is there still a theater transfer feature right to Karachi? If so, doesn't that completely bypass a sea-borne route?

Hey, shouldn't you be 'away on holiday'? [8D]

Another issue to take into account with the conquest of India is the need to garrisson the cities. Aside from all your attacking forces you'll need some small occupation units with you. In total that could be around 500 AV or more. It just adds to the already heavy demand on available forces.

And the second note at the same tune is that stated allied reinforcement of India when it gets attacked. What extra forces for the allies are put in play with the India assault???

Taking that all in mind, do you or someone else have an estimate of the total Japanese forces required and the forces available?

As a side note I believe it's fair not to push that Aden/Abadan - Karachi connection too much. Wouldn't it be true the British could have chosen for an alternate route via Iraq/Iran?! That route is not available in the game so it wouldn't be totally historically right to completely block all entries.

Just my 2 cts.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball


Is there still a theater transfer feature right to Karachi? If so, doesn't that completely bypass a sea-borne route?

No, a lot of units do arrive at cities in India. I won't tell you which ones or what cities out of fairness to CR but plenty come in that way. However, just as many come in from Aden, Mombassa, Cape Town and have to be shipped to India. I think it would be hard to interdict them as the Allied player has lots of options to redirect them. Worst case is he sends them to the US and then on to the Pacific via the Panama Canal but it is an option. All. Off map movement is probably the most brilliant feature of AE over WITP. It changes the game dramatically and removes the finite edges of the old WITP map.

What I am not clear on is what happens to reinforcements if you take the particular city that they are due to arrive in. Do they come on elsewhere or not at all?

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

What I am not clear on is what happens to reinforcements if you take the particular city that they are due to arrive in. Do they come on elsewhere or not at all?

Air groups, yes. Ground units, I don't know.

[Alfred]

In my last post on this thread (post #65) I specifically addressed, in a preliminary manner, four issues which Q-Ball asked for forum commentary.

In this post I want to revisit the comments I made in my post #35 as they apply to the forthcoming Indian operation. Ideally, those earlier comments would have guided the choice of target for Phase II operations. That Q-Ball has clearly decided on his Phase II target is a matter, IMHO, which could have benefited from further discussion prior to the decision was made to choose India. However how India is tackled is IMHO a matter which would benefit greatly from taking into account my comments of post #35. I say this because notwithstanding the very high regard I have for Nemo’s assessment of the best way to handle the Indian operations, I do not share his view that his approach is necessarily the best course of action in this instance.

Before deciding on the best plan, Q-Ball needs to determine the strategic rationale as to why he is going to India and then plan accordingly. Within the context of achieving a VP victory, there are three major strategic reasons for moving to India in Phase II:

(a) possession of bases
(b) Allied kills
(c) strengthening of the Japanese economic base

These three rationales are not mutually exclusive but one should be the predominant strategy because very different plans, in terms of force structure and landing sites etc, result from them.

Possession of Bases

Most bases in India multiply their VPs on a 5:1 ratio (Japanese:Allied). Eight bases provide a much higher ratio to Japan, two on Ceylon and six on the mainland. These bases are:

Colombo 25:2
Trincomalee 25:2

Bombay 25:1
Dacca 25:1
Karachi 25:1
Madras 25:1

Calcutta 50:1
Delhi 50:1

Based on this strategy, the optimal plan would be to land in Bengal, capture Calcutta and all the bases on the road to Delhi. Once these were accomplished, provided sufficient assets remained, a drive to capture the major ports of Bombay and Madras would ensue. Both an invasion of Ceylon and a drive to capture Karachi and central Indian bases would ensue only if there were no significant Allied forces left.

Allied Kills

Adopting this strategy leads to a quite different plan because there are several discrete and separate targets to garner VPs from. These are:

(a) the destruction of Allied capital ships being “built” in Ceylon
(b) the cutting off from its Indian supply sources and subsequent destruction of the Allied army in Burma/Assam
(c) the destruction in detail of the three Indian land commands

There is a fourth Allied “kill” which whilst it does not directly generate VPs, nonetheless can contribute greatly to weakening the Allied position worldwide. I refer to blockading Aden and preventing the despatch of troop convoys from there to on map bases until May 1943 when the Mediterranean route is opened.

Adopting this strategy requires quite different invasion zones compared to those if Base Possession is adopted. Under this strategy, Q-Ball would need to launch several different campaigns, probably in sequential order, as follows:

(i) a raid on Ceylon with the objective of capturing Colombo in order to sink the capital ships and destruction of the trapped Allied LCUs on the island. A quick departure from Ceylon would be a feasible option
(ii) to trap the Burma army, a shallow envelopment is required with a landing in Bengal and thence a drive to the map east to capture Ledo and the other Assam bases before the Burma army is able to retreat back to India. One advantage of this operation is that the key Indian industrial zone (see below for more details) would be captured and the Japanese forces would be self sustaining from local Indian supply sources
(iii) the three Indian land commands are concentrated in the environs of Bombay, Calcutta and Madras. Whilst there is a decent railway network in India, it is not that difficult to actually cut the lines between the different commands. Particularly vulnerable to this course of action are the forces concentrated, map west of the line Madras-Bangalore-Mangalore. A landing at Vizagapatnam (clear terrain) and the adjacent Cocanada (jungle) with a quick drive to Warangal (jungle) via Bezwada secures the railroad “passes” and anchors them on defensible terrain. Once the pocket is reduced Japan has the choice to drive in force north on Bombay, northeast on Cawnpore or east on Calcutta whilst the Allied player is required to maintain dispersed forces to safeguard against these options

One of the reasons why I depart from Nemo’s plan is because I don’t believe that a land capture of Karachi or Bombay (to allow for Netty strongholds) can effectively blockade Aden. The only true way of killing troop convoys from Aden is by using Japanese sea power. This is because troop convoys from Aden to Karachi enter the map at hex 36,5. This leaves them with a run of only 6 hexes to Karachi. With appropriate selection of ships, these TFs can make the run to Karachi in one turn. In order to lengthen the run in and thus force a two day exposure to air attack, Japan would need to have permanently on station two surface combat TFs at 39,7 and 39,8. Under these circumstances retention of Colombo as a rearming base for the fleet would suffice and reduce the garrison requirements for the IJA.

Strengthening the Japanese economic base

Most Indian bases have at least 20 Resource Centres, sufficient to feed the local Light Industry. However for the Allied player India presents some significant industrial weaknesses.

Foremost is the need to import, in significant quantities, fuel to feed Heavy Industry. A point which most Allied players may be unaware of is that even with oil imports, much of India’s Heavy Industry in the interior is starved of fuel. This is a problem which will also affect Japan, particularly as its capacity to import fuel into India is much less than the Allies who have the nearby off map Abadan base.

The second great weakness is that unlike Light Industry which is well dispersed, the Indian Heavy Industry is primarily concentrated in the following cities:

Calcutta 520
Asansol 200
Jamshedpur 110
Madras 140
Bombay 260

The first three cities above are both close together and close to the major Indian fuel production base, Ledo.

When you also take into account that Calcutta has 84 Manpower as well as 500 Light Industry and is well supplied with resources from nearby Asansol, Jamshedpur and Sambalpur, by far the major economic gain for Japan results in capturing the Bengali (and Assam for its oil/fuel) region. Only limited economic gains accrue from capturing much more of India.

Conclusion

The above comments should suffice to show importance of first deciding why Q-Ball is moving to India. Only when that is determined can the appropriate plan be prepared.

The difficulties I have with Nemo’s plan can be summarised as follows:

• Garrison requirements impeding Japanese future flexibility
• A successful Allied rearguard action buying time for critical Allied operations elsewhere
• India providing considerable additional supply from Light Industry but not the sought after Heavy Industry points “in the bank”
• Blockade of Aden requires sea, not air assets
• Escape of Burma Army

Nemo’s plan is good and I am certain that he has gone through the necessary assessments. It is just that I do not believe anyone should ever adopt a third party’s plan without themselves doing the necessary homework. Adoption of a second best plan, particularly if its nuances are well understood, is IMHO always preferable if it better suits the temperament and capabilities of a player.

Alfred

[Wirraway_Ace]

On the subject of Ceylon, I would be very concerned about a plan that leaves a major enemy fleet base (or two) astride your SLOCs supporting the Empire's main operational Theater.
 
Unless house rule prevent it, there is no reason that the USN can't reinforce the RN in the Indian Ocean.
 
Even destroyer squadrons rearming and refueling from Ceylon bases can be a nightmare for rapid and safe movement of troops to the Theater.   They can hide out in the vastness of the Indian Ocean and then dart in to attack convoys sighted by patrol aircraft also operating from Ceylon. 
 
Don't the forget submarines.  Picture 2 Dutch and  2 USN S-boats divisions (approximately 30 boats in total) refueling and rearming from Colombo. They would never be in port long enough for you to get a shot at them; needed significant repairs would be handled at Perth or Cape Town.  Again, patrol aircraft operating from Ceylon would greatly enhance their effectiveness.
 
While it may be possible to suppress and bypass the Ceylon bases for the initial phase of the campaign, it is going to have to be dealt with quickly or it will slow the tempo of the IJA advance through direct or indirect interdiction of the movement of reinforcements.
 
I also agree with Alfred's assessment of the difficulties with trying to interdict the Aden to Karachi convoy route by air alone.

[Q-Ball]

Part of the problem with going on a week's vacation is that you come back to a pile of work: This is why my updates are slow. Canoe and I played a couple turns while I was on holiday, but it's been one-a-day since my return. Not CR's fault, I blame my boss. Oh well, better too much work than not enough these days.....

Anyway, back to the war....

INDIA ASSESSMENT: The comments here are excellent. I agree with the principal: Ceylon would be the conservative choice, as I would almost certainly bag the island and capture everyone on it. INDIA itself is riskier; much riskier. Failure to knock it out is a failure to win.

So, can I knock out India? Is it possible in AE?

AVAILABLE BRITS: The Kempetai has provided me with detailed reinforcement schedules of the Allied Forces. Most of the Indian Divisions come in as little more than training units; less than full-strength, experience in the 20s, poor morale, and not prepped for anything. In short, about 4 months from being combat effective.

I have marked those incredibly weak Indian Units with a (*), because in reality, you have to add 4 months for them to be worth anything, and that presumes they can train in the city they have prepped for.

AT START FORCES:
2 Divisions in Burma: These Dan seems to be withdrawing in good order
1 Division on Ceylon: Really 3 half-decent Indian Bdes
2 Divisions in India: 7th and 19th, BOTH of which are (*), and don't really count

For the most part in India, British units are tied-up on garrison duty; the Mobile forces are pretty much the Burmese Army plus the 18th UK Division.

REINFORCEMENTS:
Dec: 18th UK Div
Jan 15: 6th Aus Div- A good unit, but could easily go to OZ
Feb 1: 23rd Ind (*)
Feb 15: 7th Aus Div - Ditto on the 6th. Unlikely that BOTH would be deposited in India
Mar 1: 20th Ind(*) + 2 Ind Bde (*)
Apr 1: 2 UK Div (a very good unit)
May 1: 26 Ind + 2 Bdes (these troops are at least trained)
July: 4 More Bdes, including 3 good UK Bdes

So, at the time I land which figures to be late February, at most the Allies will have, I estimate, 4 Combat-Ready divisions on the Indian Subcontinent. I should be able to roll that number easily.

Landing will obviously attract piles of attention; I probably have 2 months, maybe 3, before I start running into US Units, the rest of the AIF, and battle-ready Indian Units that have trained up a bit and filled the TOE. That's about May-June.

Is 60-90 days enough time? Looking at the map, just walking accross India with no opposition appears to be a 60-day affair.

PREVENTING REINFORCEMENTS: Can I isolate India and prevent reinforcement by Sea?

I don't see how I can do this, short of landing on top of Karachi itself. Karachi is so close to the map edge, that a Betty base a few hexes away would only get ONE shot, in Karachi harbor itself. Even if they sink some transports, some unloading would occur, and that's IF the Bettys launch and find the target, which is not 100%. No, I probably need to keep IJN Cruisers within a night's sail to really close it, and that would be mucho difficult to sustain way out there.

So, I have to "RUSH" in 60-90 days. That's it. Probably that's not possible without multiple landings to speed things up and open rail space. Even if I rush it, high probability I'll end up stuck on Karachi or Bombay, urban hexes that won't fall easily. This happened on my only Indian expedition in WITP, though we auto-victoried in that game.

I'm still debating this, but India is a tough nut. An alternative is a landing on Ceylon, and a landing in Northeast India to capture Calcutta and create "Space", but there is no way I could realistically hold either spot without taking India out completely.

[Chickenboy]

Q-ball,

Assuming that you DON'T create an auto-victory condition by taking all of India...

Is there one of your approaches that puts you in a better position at 'creating space' that can be held for some time versus the other? In my opinion, this may be the real value of your Indian campaign, particularly should Auto Victory fail.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Q-ball,

Assuming that you DON'T create an auto-victory condition by taking all of India...

Is there one of your approaches that puts you in a better position at 'creating space' that can be held for some time versus the other? In my opinion, this may be the real value of your Indian campaign, particularly should Auto Victory fail.

Good question. Certainly, Ceylon serves as a speed-bump, though I wouldn't garrison it heavily, as anyone there is probably toast in the long-run.

I have to look, maybe it's possible to form a defense line in NE India, but then I would be at risk; there's alot of coastline in my rear in that case.

Combat Report, Jan 19-26, 1942:

Catching up on a few turns of combat. Dan's AAR is constantly at the top of the page, so he must be updating his pretty consistently. More than me at any rate.

Allied Moves: Overall, Dan seems to be pulling a Sir Robin so far. The only serious opposition has been from minor warships; alot of them are older, kind of throwaway ships. Every landing so far in Australia and elsewhere has been unopposed. I will probably just keep going with nothing units until I hit something. At this pace though I'll be landing on the Ross Ice Shelf by April, unless I hit something!

Allied CVs? I haven't seen a one in a month, so they could be anywhere. I am pretty sure Dan isn't going to take on KB directly at this stage, but other than that, I have to be careful; they could pop anywhere.

Southwest Pacific: Efate was captured, and I am building an airstrip there. I landed an Inf Regt at Koumac; as best I can tell, Noumea is still not reinforced, so I guess we'll take it.

KB stumbled on a lone xAKL near Norfolk Island on the 23rd, sinking it. I think that was a picket, so it served it's purpose. With KB certainly found, I sent it back to Truk, where it will then head to the Indian Ocean; with that appearance, Dan will probably stay away from my landings in the New Hebrides, so it served that purpose anyway.

Not sure what I'll do after Noumea is taken. I might jump to Norfolk Island. I could land on Fiji, but my total Combat troops in the SW Pacific is about 400-500 AV in total, so I don't really have combat troops to overcome serious resistance. I'm just seizing space.

Marshalls: I've landed on Tabiteua, which will be built-up. I am prepping some units for Canton, I might land there if there is no sign of the Allies. I don't see a point to get too stretched out; the point is to force Dan to route convoys wide, but that doesn't hurt the Allies that much in the end.

Australia: Port Hedland and Derby fall. I have about 400 AV prepping for Darwin; may or may not be enough. A Nav Gd is about to land at Exmouth. All of this is unopposed.

Coen falls as well, and troops are marching on Cairns. I do expect to find someone there.

Burma: The Allies are evacuating Burma. That is wise, given what I am planning; because of that, my "advance" into Burma was lackidasical, consisting of 33rd Div plus most of the 55th. They are marching north to take what we are given, which should include Magwe. I might run into some Chinese up there.

Malaya: The last attack on Singapore was a 1-2 failure; we did kill alot of Allied troops, but didn't make progress. This is a problem! I noticed my supplies were a bit low, so I am unloading some at Mersing while I recover for another attack.

I expected Sinagpore to fall by now, so this is seriously delaying me!

Java: We crushed 3 units at Tjitilap, taking the base. I am railroading a Bde back to Batavia; with a new division unloading, I think I can start reducing the two cities on Java.

DEI: Elsewhere in the DEI, we are in mop-up mode. Den Passar fell, as well as Waingapu.

TIMETABLE: I am falling behind on my timetable, with these holdups at Luzon and Singapore. I must not have brought enough guys, because Dan is not doing anything special, just moving everyone to those two points. That's the right thing to do though.

I am surprised about Singapore, since we cut-off 3 Bdes, and mauled 2-3 more on our advance. I expected it to be an easier nut.

[JohnDillworth]

INDIA ASSESSMENT: The comments here are excellent. I agree with the principal: Ceylon would be the conservative choice, as I would almost certainly bag the island and capture everyone on it. INDIA itself is riskier; much riskier. Failure to knock it out is a failure to win.

So, can I knock out India? Is it possible in AE?

AVAILABLE BRITS: The Kempetai has provided me with detailed reinforcement schedules of the Allied Forces. Most of the Indian Divisions come in as little more than training units; less than full-strength, experience in the 20s, poor morale, and not prepped for anything. In short, about 4 months from being combat effective.

I have marked those incredibly weak Indian Units with a (*), because in reality, you have to add 4 months for them to be worth anything, and that presumes they can train in the city they have prepped for.

AT START FORCES:
2 Divisions in Burma: These Dan seems to be withdrawing in good order
1 Division on Ceylon: Really 3 half-decent Indian Bdes
2 Divisions in India: 7th and 19th, BOTH of which are (*), and don't really count

For the most part in India, British units are tied-up on garrison duty; the Mobile forces are pretty much the Burmese Army plus the 18th UK Division.

REINFORCEMENTS:
Dec: 18th UK Div
Jan 15: 6th Aus Div- A good unit, but could easily go to OZ
Feb 1: 23rd Ind (*)
Feb 15: 7th Aus Div - Ditto on the 6th. Unlikely that BOTH would be deposited in India
Mar 1: 20th Ind(*) + 2 Ind Bde (*)
Apr 1: 2 UK Div (a very good unit)
May 1: 26 Ind + 2 Bdes (these troops are at least trained)
July: 4 More Bdes, including 3 good UK Bdes

So, at the time I land which figures to be late February, at most the Allies will have, I estimate, 4 Combat-Ready divisions on the Indian Subcontinent. I should be able to roll that number easily.

Landing will obviously attract piles of attention; I probably have 2 months, maybe 3, before I start running into US Units, the rest of the AIF, and battle-ready Indian Units that have trained up a bit and filled the TOE. That's about May-June.

Is 60-90 days enough time? Looking at the map, just walking accross India with no opposition appears to be a 60-day affair.

This is the kind of analysis I should do but never do. Hats of to you and the other players that think this stuff through. I just figure I have massive troop superiority and waltz right in. Goes well for a few weeks and then it starts to bog down. You figured out the reinforcement, the rail network and probably the supplies. The way you describe it it is not as easy as I though. Also, the Brits don't get "plenty" of fighters, but they get enough and they are experienced.

BTW, most of the activity in our opponents forum is chatting about general stuff that probably should go in the regular forums. Plus CR can be a bit "prolific"[:D]

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball


[I have marked those incredibly weak Indian Units with a (*), because in reality, you have to add 4 months for them to be worth anything, and that presumes they can train in the city they have prepped for.

One note. I don't think any unit has to be in the actual city that they prepped for in order to train. As long as they are prepped 100% for any location they can be anywhere and will train as long as they are not moving or fighting. This was my experience in China and India. In fact no matter the lumps taken, the Allied player in China should never change the prep destination for any of his units. Better to build them to 100% and train than prep for a new location in my opinion.

However, if you are pushing him hard in India, he will have to use these units in the front lines anyway so they won't be able to train. So, it might not matter. Of course they might gain combat exp but not if you are banging them up and they are taking large losses.

[Q-Ball]

crsutton: They don't have to be in that city? Can someone confirm that? I always thought they did....if not, that's pretty good info to know!

Combat Report, Jan 27-29, 1942:

Quiet turns, as the Allies seem to be conceding space. My biggest problem right now is just getting fuel and supplies forward enough to keep moving, and wondering if I even need to move further out.

Actually my biggest problem is Singapore! I am surprised I can't take it with all the losses Dan suffered in central Malaya. I guess I should have included an extra division in there.

Singapore: Speaking of which, we are attacking tommorow. I am bringing a couple more units into play, but need to gather them at Johore before crossing the strait; no reason to get them mauled on a Shock attack for nothing.

Java: I should be investing Batavia shortly; I don't think I have enough to reduce it as I have most spare troops at Sinagpore, but we'll give it a shot; the KNIL isnt' very good, so maybe it's enough. Taking Batavia would help alot, then I probably have enough AV to clear the island.

Blind Squirrel Squadron: Dutch bombers are getting better; I captured Den Passar and Mataram, taking the garrisons, but in the process Dutch Martins sank a Transport, and heavily damaged an APD, which might go down. I actually might have to aircover now that the Dutch have actually sunk a ship!

New Hebrides: Noumea should fall shortly, as well as Tanna. That will complete the "conquest" (really "occupation") of the New Hebrides. Not sure what's next there, I don't really need to go further. Suggestions anyone?

Keep in mind I have only 2 Regts, plus Gds Bde, and various Nav Gd units down there; I don't have heavy combat units, nor do I intend to. My options as I see it:

1. Occupy Norfolk Island: Would further route Australia-bound convoys
2. Sit tight; form mobile reserve around Gds Bde to respond to threats, and move everyone else to India. I could occupy Norfolk first before doing this
3. FIJI: Prep everyone for Fiji. I would probably need everybody for this. Fiji in itself though is pretty useless, all it is is a speedbump and some VPs, and that presumes he attacks at the tip of the advance rather than in my rear, which is more Dan's style.
4. MIDWAY: This would freak Dan out a bit, and keep pressure in the Pacific. I am certain there is a heavy garrison there; I have a sub stationed there, and they report convoys all the time.
5. CAIRNS/COOKTOWN: I have enough to take one of these bases, but the problem with this is that once I land in India, Dan will know this is a diversion, and be able to march 2-3 AUS militia divisions up there easily and boot me out at no cost to him.

The only major base I have identified is Pago Pago; I have observed convoys in and out of there alot, so I think there are units being landed.

Thoughts?

DD Sinkings: An Allied force of 3 DDs visited Sakhalin. This time I had a small TF posted there, as I have extra ships at the moment. They jumped the Allied DDs, putting a torpedo into a Mahan-class DD and sinking it immediately. The other 2 fled.

We also sank DD PORTER off Pago Pago via submarine

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball


[I have marked those incredibly weak Indian Units with a (*), because in reality, you have to add 4 months for them to be worth anything, and that presumes they can train in the city they have prepped for.

One note. I don't think any unit has to be in the actual city that they prepped for in order to train. As long as they are prepped 100% for any location they can be anywhere and will train as long as they are not moving or fighting.

As far as my understanding goes, crsutton is correct. However, caveat emptor, I've not seen this done in controlled playtesting.

[Walloc]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

crsutton: They don't have to be in that city? Can someone confirm that? I always thought they did....if not, that's pretty good info to know!

Absolutly confirmed. I almost never change the prep hexes for any allied for from the start, until trained or needed. Training them is by far more importand. A 20 exp unit defending some where with alot of prep still stops nothing in my experience. So training = king.

Unlike Crsutton its not my experince that exp doesnt rise, when moving or figthing. Quite the opposite. I've even seen US divs embarked on ships can train some. Problem is that they are ususally split over several ships so the average exp doesnt rise cuz 1 of the units does. Havent u seen the pictures of the Tennesee manuvers taking place on the deck of a transport ship? [:D]

There are some anecdotal evidence, but since there are many unknown factors and luck are involved, so its purely speculations on my part that being in the city u prepping will help on the pace of raise in exp.

Hope it helps,

Rasmus

[witpqs]

I also confirm Walloc's finding.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

...My options as I see it:

1. Occupy Norfolk Island: Would further route Australia-bound convoys
2. Sit tight; form mobile reserve around Gds Bde to respond to threats, and move everyone else to India. I could occupy Norfolk first before doing this
3. FIJI: Prep everyone for Fiji. I would probably need everybody for this. Fiji in itself though is pretty useless, all it is is a speedbump and some VPs, and that presumes he attacks at the tip of the advance rather than in my rear, which is more Dan's style.
4. MIDWAY: This would freak Dan out a bit, and keep pressure in the Pacific. I am certain there is a heavy garrison there; I have a sub stationed there, and they report convoys all the time.
5. CAIRNS/COOKTOWN: I have enough to take one of these bases, but the problem with this is that once I land in India, Dan will know this is a diversion, and be able to march 2-3 AUS militia divisions up there easily and boot me out at no cost to him.

The only major base I have identified is Pago Pago; I have observed convoys in and out of there alot, so I think there are units being landed.

Thoughts?

I would most definitely not move on Fiji. The at start Allied strength there is sufficient to hold up your weak available invasion force.

As I see it, your primary intention should be to create a maskirovka to mask your real Phase II objective. India. Bearing that in mind you can undertake reconnaisance in force operations which will spotlight other targets. Examples follow.


(A) Hawaii. The capture of Midway would certainly indicate that a move on Hawaii is being contemplated. As you have indicated that you believe there is a heavy garrison on Midway, IF you lack the in theatre forces to capture it quickly, why not test the Allied reaction first by capturing the nearby dot base Kure Island with a small detachment and keep the main invasion force offshore. That way if there is no significant Allied air/sea riposte from Midway, you could move in the invasion force to Midway itself. From a longer perspective you could always build up Kure Island to add support to a subsequent invasion of Midway, perhaps in Phase III.


(B) Australian SLOCs. Both the Indian and Pacific Ocean SLOCs need to be within range of Nettie/IJN raiders. For the Indian Ocean, this means both Cocos and Christmas Islands should be occupied. For the Pacific Ocean, the range of credible targets is much wider but I would elect the following:

(1) capture both Norfolk and Lord Howe. The latter in particular can be used as a seaplane base to closely monitor the New South Wales ports/coastline and Brisbane.

(2) capture the dot base Raoul Island for seaplane base purposes. This one not only suggests a concentration on the Australian SLOC but also leaves operations against New Zealand open.

(3) if not already under Japanese control, acquire the Ellice Islands. From these you can move south on the French possessions Hoorn and Wallis. Both start with no garrisons and I really doubt they have much of a garrison currently. Yet both threaten a move on Fiji or Samoa and allow you to assess how strong the Allied air/sea riposte is. Any Allied strengthening of their position in this region is to your overall strategic benefit.


(C) Australian mainland. Reconnaisance in force here entails some preliminary limited landings to sell the idea that Australia is Phase II. These landings would probably be temporary as the idea is to give the Allies sufficient time to reinforce Australia in order to kick you out. I would consider the following:

(1) capture the two Gulf of Carpentaria dot bases, Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island. Both are islands so would require an Allied invasion for their recapture. Both should be built up to level 2 airfields to indicate a methodical build up for invading Australia and also allow your opponet to view them as a rear guard to cover an Australian evacuation should things not turn out well for Japan. Groote Eylandt allows you to sweep Katherine and Daly Waters and gain air superiority over the land LOC to Darwin, a worrying development for the Allies. Mornington presages a move on Normanton which is probably not too well garrisoned and allows you to completely unhinge the Allied Queensland coastal defensive line.

(2) land at both Portland Roads and Normanton. Both locations are at the end of poor transport links so that it would take some time for the Allied counter attack to arrive, all the time being under Japanese surveillance and subect to long range air interdiction in the open. IMHO bearing in mind yhour overall strategic goals, they are better invasion sites than your suggested Cairns/Cooktown. If you time your landings well, you will get the Allies to reinforce Australia before India strats and you will have time to evacuate in good order, particularly if your have Mornington Island (see above). Normanton is also useful as a starting off location to capture the very valuable (both to Japan and the Allied generation of supply within Australia) resource base to its southwest.


(D) Consolidation of New Hebrides. Ultimately the idea of forming mobile counter attack forces based around Gds Bde is the correct idea. It is however too early to do so. Firstly the locations in (B) above should be secured. Secondly I would capture the dot base Lifou for its Resources which when added to the Noumea production, makes the entire New Caledonia operation a good economic operation. (I can't recall whether you already have captured Nauru but its resources would also be of value)


(E) Aleutians. Capture by coup de main of Attu Island, using only in theatre forces could be very profitable. It might encourage your opponet to think you have diverted forces to stop those pesky northern DD raids or that you are moving on the Aleutians to forestall that favourtie route of his. Provided you use only spare local forces, a move up there incurs no significant cost and potentially could significantly distract your opponent.

Alfred

[ny59giants]

Both the Indian and Pacific Ocean SLOCs need to be within range of Nettie/IJN raiders. For the Indian Ocean, this means both Cocos and Christmas Islands should be occupied. For the Pacific Ocean, the range of credible targets is much wider but I would elect the following:

I would have at least a 9 plane Chutai of Marvis/Emily being trained up for either NavB or NavT (if you can afford a small Air HQ). Force Dan to either escort his transports with a CV and/or push his convoys out further towards the map edge.

[Q-Ball]

Alfred, you have some good suggestions. I am not inclined to sit on my hands, not until the Allies show some resistance somewhere.

RE: Resources, I am not interested in capturing Resources. I have taken Nauru, but more because it's a useful spot rather than the Resources. Resources in the South Pacific, IMO, are too far from Japan to be economically moved, except as ballast in home-bound empties. There are more than enough resources available closer to the Home Islands.

You make some good points, though, relative to targets. I am prepping what units I have for SUVA, since that's the only spot I would expect resistance. But here is the prelim plan:

1. Move on NORFOLK ISLAND shortly
2. Land on FIJI within a month
3. Occupy the ELLICE ISLANDS, as basically a seaplane post

I had already planned to occupy Christmas and Cocos Is in the Indian Ocean

Groote Eyland is probably a good idea, Gove is another decent spot that is on the mainland, but not very accessible.

The primary effort, though, will be in the Bay of Bengal.

[Nemo121]

Port Hedland is a particular favourite of mine... Situated close to his SLOCs from Capetown/India to western Oz it indicates an "unmistakable" intent to raid his SLOCs to prevent reinforcements reaching Oz.

Combined with noises re: the difficulty of refuelling KB in the region to explain why you actually don't fully close the SLOCs ( no point closing them and trapping all those troops in India ) it could be a very nice maskirovka which could, through the building up to Level 4 for basing of Netties significantly curb his ability to send reinforcements north into India again once it is clear that's where he is going. Certainly it would force any such reinforcements very far west into predictable routes which could be profitably raided by CVE forces once the RN CVs are brought into action during the invasion of India.

While a land base it would really require an amphibious invasion to retake and also serves a purpose in 1943 and 44 in acting as an outpost which must be cleared prior to invasion of the DEI ( unless he goes the PM to Darwin eastern route --- which will be well-telegraphed and easily enough resisted ).

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Port Hedland is a particular favourite of mine... Situated close to his SLOCs from Capetown/India to western Oz it indicates an "unmistakable" intent to raid his SLOCs to prevent reinforcements reaching Oz.

I agree, which is why it fell over 2 weeks ago, and I already have an Eng Regt and Base Force there to develop it. You can also occupy Corunna Downs, and create a mini-cluster there; makes it easier to defend than Exmouth or Carnarvon, which can be shut down pretty easily by 4E.

Exmouth has also fallen, and I should take Carnarvon tommorow. I don't intend to really hold Carnarvon, that's more of a raid.

Port Hedland and Horn Island are the two keys to keeping the Allies out of the Southern DEI, because you can't allow them to run supplies to Darwin.

[ComradeP]

What would a landing at Suva, Fiji or Midway achieve for your overall plan? Landing on unprotected islands to give the Allies the impression you're advancing is one thing and a good strategy, but considering your limited forces in the area and the fact that a fair number of your forces are held up elsewhere, would it not be a better idea to first clean up your backyard (PI, Singers) with all available resources aside from the few units you need to make scattered landings? If most of your surface fleet is soon heading for India, why do you want to fight for several islands which are probably Allied strongholds by now?

Think of it this way: let's say you capture Suva, Fiji or Midway. Your limited forces will then be even more spread out, the landings are likely to cause some damage to you as the potentially powerful SCTF you send there won't be able to support the operations over time as they're needed elsewhere, not to mention that the landings could fail altogether. For a fairly high risk, you can gain (very) temporary ownership of an island you don't really need for what you intend to do and you could potentially destroy a unit that the Allies can either miss or rebuild after a cadre is evacuated. Judging by both his AAR's and reputation, your opponent will try to kick you out and will in all likeliness succeed as he could move a few units from somewhere or buy them from the US. When they attack, they'll be bloodied against units that can't really stop them with what you say you have available. Not to mention that they could also decide to land elsewhere, as the handful of units you have in the area will be on Suva/Fiji/Midway.

With many of your ships either around the DEI or in the India-Ceylon area, US ships in the Pacific might be able to find holes in your lines and there will be times when something more troubling than a 3 DD TF will run into a convoy that isn't composed of by and large expendable ships. If you land at a place that probably doesn't give you the chance for a quick knockout blow, like the aforementioned bases, you're probably just giving him the chance to strike back. He probably thinks KB will support the landings so he might be scared at first, but it only takes a turn of no carrier aircraft attacks to make him doubt KB is in the area, even though he might still fear a trap. After the second turn, his scepticism might be pretty much gone.

The thing that more or less won you the game against Cuttlefish was that you didn't show your hand until you were ready, and could convince your opponent that you were more or less going all-in on a different front. Invading small islands with no or a negligible garrison is not showing your hand, but invading one of the aforementioned bases will show both how weak and how strong you area. Should you get stuck on the island and should your opponent notice you're not sending extra units, he might assume you don't have any in the area and he would be right.

Although everything is of course entirely up to you, I'd suggest focussing on capturing small islands and giving the impression that your target is Australia. I would not suggest showing indirect weakness through what you might think is a show of strength at the time, because your forces will soon be committed to a campaign in India and you can't afford to have unsettled business on some islands where you don't really need to be. Let the Allies come to you in the Pacific, unless you can send more troops. Judging by your posts, that's not really possible at the moment so I'd suggest: find limited objectives for your limited forces and leave potential Allied island strongholds alone. Avoid the Japanese trap of wanting everything at the same time.