More Dispatches from OKH: Q-ball (A) v Von Beanie (R) Rnd 2 v1.04

[Q-Ball]

Turn 9, OKH Dispatches:

This turn is more of the same; my Landsers are trudging forward in the Russian Summer heat, while Army Group North slugs through the swamps and woods south of Leningrad. Russians are dying, but the Red Army lives to fight another day.

LOSSES TO DATE: So far, the Russians have lost 1.7 mil men, including 1.12 mil POWs. I am behind the pace of my last game, primarily, I think, due to Von Beanie's improved defense.

Gone are the stacks with gaps, replaced by Red Carpet. I pretty much can't fault his defense now, other than he is very willing to surrender ground, and trade space for saving the Red Army. Of those 1.1 mil POWs, probably 800K were isolated on Turn 1. Outside of that, I really haven't bagged anything other than a unit here and there.

AGN:
I planned to start pulling Panzers here but.....Sooooo tempting to whack more Soviet units, particularly when we see opportunities to ROUT a whole army. Which we basically did, including the displacement of the HQ.

We will push across the Volkhov in hopes of reaching the Finns along the Svir, which would "Finnish" Lenningrad..

Remember the guys in the last screenshot that I labelled: "If they stay here next turn, they will be routed"? Guess what: They stayed. And they were routed, part of the 15 unit refugees...

AGC:
We have surrounded Vyazma, including a unit inside. Otherwise, I am just threatening enough to force him to do a Von Beanie pullback.

AGS:
He is moving factories JUST ahead of me

[Q-Ball]

Turn 10 Dispatches: Northern Fronts

I think we are going to take Leningrad; with 7 more turns of clear weather, we secured a key hex. He has a decision to make on whether to evacuate as many units as possible, or attempt to make a stand. I just couldn't clear the Port Hex itself, but otherwise, a great turn!!

Von Beanie attacked a single Panzer Regt. in Kolpino his turn. I left only Regts. to face Leningrad, to provide max effort toward the Volkhov. His Tank Div did nail my Panzers, but at a high price; he pulled a unit off the "Backdoor" hex, weakening it just enough for us to take it. 6 Infantry Divisions on Deliberate attack with lots of Heavy Guns (I moved most of them to 18th Army) and Pioneers cleared the hex. I moved Panzers in to secure it.

I also secured a bridgehead over the Volkhov, but I think I'll abandon that effort.

Happy days!

[Mynok]

Man, you have a good chance of isolating Leningrad there. Get those 18th army inf up there in place of your 4th panzer stuff and you are good.

EDIT: This was supposed to be in Senno's thread. [8|]

[ComradeP]

Even with all those attachments, it still sounds like a very lucky roll. 40 offensive CV, divided by ~3 because of the major river would leave you with initial odds of 13 to 30 (unless he didn't make his rolls, which would reduce it to 15). You probably didn't get 100% command modifier either. I guess the pioniere got extremely favourable fort reduction rolls, as the Soviet defensive CV is mostly just forts.

[Senno]

Impressive as usual, Q-Ball.

[Q-Ball]

Turn 12 Dispatches from OKH

I didn't post after turn 11 (busy), but not alot happened; mostly me either repositioning forces, or getting stopped.

I spent the turn around Leningrad sending my best Infantry across the Neva. It worked; this turn, we cleared Ostinovets, that port.

Leningrad:

See the shot below; Ostinovets has fallen, which mean Leningrad is toast, along with the 9 Rifle Divisions still there. It will take a couple turns to clean-up, but this was objective #1 of our Summer campaign. With a few turns left in the Summer, I will have some time to re-position forces.

First, I need to clear Leningrad and free the Finns; once I do that, I can relieve the troops along the Volkhov line. The Volkhov is proving too tough to crack, so we're going to send some Panzers to Novgorod, and hook back north to clear some space between this area and Leningrad.

I also plan to send Panzers to AGC, where I am behind...because I sent resources north. I also need to transfer some infantry to the south.

Bryansk Pocket: See shot; this is the pocket that won't die. We have spent 2 turns screwing around with it, but finally we have it closed for good, which will net 8 divisions. I will actually destroy some units next turn, first in a while.

What would you guys do with those 2 extra Panzer Corps for a few turns?

[Q-Ball]

Turn 12, Southern Front:

I am not real happy with the progress down here. Von Beanie is fighting hard for towns with factories, and the Red Carpet is frustrating; you need alot of Panzers to get through it.

He is pulling back his units just enough to keep my infantry mostly marching and not fighting much. His defense has been very good down here, so my progress isn't great.

V-B has remarked how much weaker my units seem than last game. I told him 3 reasons for that:

1. His defense is good
2. MORALE changes; no more 99-morale super Germans (or 70-morale Romanians). This does have an impact on the Wehrmacht. Gaining morale is very tough, and losing it easy, if you're over the National Morale. Over time, the Infantry trends toward the National Morale. I'm OK with that, because it also means no more 70-Morale Rifle Divisions either.
3. ARMAMENTS: I have 118K in the German pool, and climbing.

Love-Hate Relationship with Romanaian Troops

On the one hand, the Romanian Generals are terrible, and the troops pretty much stink.

On the other hand, you need all the boots you can get, and at least the Romanians manned-up and got into the fight, rather than stay behind "No Move" lines, or sending just a small Mobile Corps.

I can foresee in this game having to rely more and more on the Axis Allied troops to man the line, which is dangerous.

[Klydon]

Good question on PG 4. I don't know why he is stacked up so heavily on the Volkhov. The whole line is crap once the Finns come in and blow across the Svir line unless he isn't thinking about them.

If he wants to stay stacked up on the line like that, I would have to consider a right hook with PG 4 under the lake to meet with the Finns coming across the Svir. Panzers don't have to run as far north and will have support from the Finns. Additional Finns will come blowing out of Leningrad to help clean up the mess on the river. Presto, lots of captured Russians and pretty much wipes out any ideas he may be entertaining on trying to get Leningrad back during the winter.

If you try to get them too far (like say sending them to AGS) I don't know that you have enough time to get them there, get them refueled, then have them accomplish anything meaningful before winter sets in. The other consideration is if you decide to launch a snow offensive or not. Certainly, they could come in handy for that.

Overall, since he seems tied to the Volkhov line, I would see about trying to go for a big pocket there perhaps, meeting up with the Finns from the Svir river line. You should still have plenty of time to get them withdrawn and rehabbed for the winter.

[Schmauser]

You have the makings of a decent pocket around Ztown if he slips a little.

You had commented previously about casulaties. In my current test game I am seeing fewer Soviet casualties even though I am enjoying more success. My sense is that the overall casualties are reduced by

1) The lower manpower numbers after patching.


2) Manpower that is retained in the pool due to an insufficiecy of weapons.


Time will tell if this haunts you or not as manpower in the pools is not gaining experience and will take some time to reach the units. My expectation is that this will slow his winter counter offensive as his striking power and movement is reduced.

FWIW, my understanding is that the Russians frequently put soldiers into the field without rifles even in 1942. The logic of course being that rifles become available once the shooting starts.

[ComradeP]

OK, Q-Ball, this might be a good time to share your plans as to what you actually want to achieve in the center and the south. I can't really deduce a plan from the screenshot showing the lower half of AGC and AGS.

If I may suggest something: before planning on withdrawing the Panzers from the Volkhov, wait until you've seen his defenses when you receive the next turn. Specifically: if he's moving anything else into that hex with the 2=9 division north of your mobile units. He actually moved a unit out of that hex on his previous turn. A deliberate attack against it will probably remove it now that swamps are not fortresses anymore. If you remove it, you can get infantry across the Volkhov. When that happens, he's screwed and you can safely move the Panzers out.

I'd also encourage you to post/think about what you want to achieve with 4th Panzer Group now that Leningrad is doomed. As I see it, there's a vast wilderness east of Leningrad where no kind of advance is a real threat to the Soviet strategic situation. As such, if I were in your position, I'd simply move the entirety of 4th Panzer Group to AGC after the bridgehead across the Volkhov has been widened (preferably in that hex currently held by the 2=9 Rifle division)

[Q-Ball]

OKH STRATEGY CONFERENCE: Sept 4, 1941:

ComradeP makes a good point. What is our objective these remaining 5 turns?

I have opened the turn, and started moving up north. I am over the Volkhov with Infantry. I cleared Leningrad completely, though I did need to use 2 Mobile units already across the Neva to do it. Worth it, because I wanted to get the Finns moving.

So, what next? What are my objectives for the remaining 4-5 turns of good weather I have (plus some Snow)?

STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT:
Von Beanie has generally traded space for time and men, except up by Leningrad. As a result, his losses are extremely low; only 2.1 mil men, 32,000 guns, of those 1.35 Mil are POWs.

That isn't good. Von Beanie has put up a good defense, focusing on Unit and Factory preservation, and generally has acheived those objectives. I have destroyed 129 Divisions, plus a bunch of other units, but that's a low count. Most of those were in the first couple turns.

In terms of progress, Leningrad is an important win, but I have had problems in other areas, pretty much AGS and AGC. I have cleared Bryansk, Sumy, Poltava, and I'm approaching Kharkov, but that's middling progress. I have had only 1 Panzer Corps on the drive to Moscow, and it shows; I haven't taken Rhzev, and I'm just beyond Vyazma. Bleck.

So, what I need to do is obvious: I need to gain space and kill Russians. Where and how?

Initial Thoughts:
Transferring units from Pz Gp 4 isn't that quick, because I don't have a north-south rail line yet (working on it). So, that limits what I can accomplish in terms of a move.

So, here is my initial plan:

1. Transfer 2 Panzer Corps to 3rd Pz Gp in front of Moscow. Objective: Create buffer hexes and threaten Moscow.
2. Send Brand-New Panzer Corps to the Ukraine; we will focus this Corps, plus 1st Panzer Group, on the objective of taking Kharkov and the Donbas Cities. Because these objectives still have factories (though the T-34s are gone from Kharkov...), I hope to force him to fight for fixed geographic objectives, and get some guys killed.

I also need to gain a 10-12 hex buffer I can retreat from all along the front. I will retain 1 large Panzer Corps in AGN sector to help build space over the Volkhov, but mostly because I will need a Fire Brigade up there anyway, and they will be it. By up there, I mostly mean the sector south of the Finnish Line; the Finns don't need backup. They are the backup!

[ComradeP]

Q-Ball, could you post screenshots for the entire front (possibly during turn 13, or after it)? It makes it easier to throw up an idea or two about what you could possibly do now that Leningrad is secured.

Killing Soviet units/men isn't not necessarily a good strategy for the remaining turns if you can't do it in an economical way (a way that won't burn out your units). Even if he has a large army, he'll still have mostly mediocre units. There's no need to attack everywhere. Like I implied in my previous post: it might be a good idea to create a small buffer and just dig in with AGN for example, their gains would probably not justify the losses (unless Von Beanie pulls back for some reason and you can capture territory cheaply). The Finns are fresh, so you could attack with them (possibly attacking and then moving them north a bit again to avoid a few points of extra morale loss due to being south of the no attack line).

I have some suggestions for things that can hurt him, but whether or not they're practical depends on what the front looks like on turn 13.

[Q-Ball]

OKH STRATEGY CONFERENCE:

Gentlemen! Welcome to OKH Headquarters in Vinnitsa, please enjoy the fine Ukrainian delicacies we have plundered from the nearby town.

Attached is a situation map, south of our victorious Leningrad Sector.

You'll have to forgive my primitive screenshot skills!

[Q-Ball]

More Turn 13, Pre-Move:

[Altaris]

That carpet delay defense is exactly what my opponent has used against me, and you are correct in that there is no good counter for it. You can't encircle, you can't push far in with infantry, you can't do much of anything. The only counter I've been able to think of at all (and one I did get to work with some effectiveness around Turn 14-16) is to concentrate your striking force into a concentrated attack and just punch east as hard and fast as possible. This forces him to abandon the well entrenched positions on the flanks of the spearhead or risk a major encirclement. Problem is keeping those flanks secured as you push in... at some point you have to straighten those lines up. And while I think most Soviet players right now would pull back to avoid those encirclements, if timed right with a bare-bones holding force, it's probably even worth having some encircled just to slow the Germans down even more.

It's an insanely effective defense. As Soviet players pick up on it, I think German advances are going to slow down immensely.

[ComradeP]

It does require ready units and preferably forts to work, though, as otherwise you can hasty attack your way through as the Axis, even though it will be more costly than normal attacks.

Q-Ball:

My advice:

-Forget about capturing anything north of Kaluga. You're already very thin on the ground, and any longer frontline is just going to be even more difficult to defend than this one. You already have a reasonable buffer to Velikie Luki and a good buffer to Smolensk. You'll lose Vyazma in the winter. No big deal, no reason to weep for the loss.

-As it takes a couple of turns to move your mobile units around, you probably don't have more than about 3 turns for an offensive to work before the mud hits. As such, I'd advise offensives with limited gains.

I have some ideas, but I need to know where you functional rail lines are first. That FBD unit in the AGN area, if it's the only one, should be working on the rail line to Leningrad, preferably through the Baltic states just to be safe. That north-south rail line it's next to now will be partially lost in the blizzard, no need to spend extra time on it. I hope the FBD unit in the lower left corner of the first screenshot is just relocating somewhere and is not actually the closest FBD unit you have to the front east of it.

Also: why are you forming fortified zones in the middle of nowhere?

[Q-Ball]

Quick Answers:

RR: That AGN FBD was only building a spur to that front; that area was a major problem for me last game. It is about to turn around, and start building a rail line from Pskov to Vitebsk, and continuing (with help), down the Dnepr. There is already a line to Leningrad. (through Pskov)

There is another FBD you can't see near Bryansk; I am about done there, and will turn around, and start building that "Beltway" line, roughly along the Dnepr.

There is an FBD South of Gomel...that came over the top of the Pripet.

Another is around Cherkassy, working East

11th Army FBD is past Nikolev, to support the Crimea front; that's almost done, then it will turn North.

Overall, I want some spurs, but I need a Beltway back of the front

So, my functional rail lines are limited, due to limited time; not much you can do in 12 turns.

RE: Fortified Zones: Those were just created, on top of size 3-4 towns. I plan to build forts there, then disband before winter. They are fallback positions. I plan to build more to help, but started with the obvious points, where my troops won't die....

[Rafo35]

Umh, the Soviet losses are more or less historical (remember early september is before the huge encirclement of Kiev and Viazma / Briansk) but the Soviet lost a lot more ground overall, including Leningrad. So it looks to me that the Soviet failed to trade space to protect its army, partly because of the uber Lvov pocket I presume.
 
You are more or less on the Typhoon starting line, but with one full month of clear weather ahead (plus a few turn of Mud). I would go all out for Moscow with AGC reinforced by 4th and 1st Panzer Group, most of the FDB and most of the Luftwaffe.

[ComradeP]

Moscow is just another city, it doesn't get you any special bonuses and there's no way in hell you'll be able to hold it until spring if you capture it. What Q-Ball needs now is a defendable, preferably nearly straight north-south line, not more salients.

I'd say it might be a good idea to get a Panzer Group to where 11th Army is now.

You could go all-in for Kharkov with 3 Panzer Groups, with 1 Panzer Group advancing from the south, but that requires some time to work. You'd probably still be able to capture Kharkov and Belgorod even at a rate of 1 hex/turn.

I'd say creating a bit of a buffer near Orel is the way to go, you'll lose the city in winter, but that's no problem. The area in the Belgorod-Orel-Voronezh, although thinly held, is not really valuable from a strategic perspective, so any major push there will just make your defensive line longer.

Aside from possibly Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye, I don't think any city you capture now can really be held in winter.

I'd say moving every mobile unit (including minor Axis cavalry and motorized units) to AGS offers the best option for gaining some useful ground.

[karonagames]

I'd say creating a bit of a buffer near Orel is the way to go, you'll lose the city in winter, but that's no problem. The area in the Belgorod-Orel-Voronezh, although thinly held, is not really valuable from a strategic perspective, so any major push there will just make your defensive line longer.

Pieter - don't you think a strong thrust Orel - Voronezh and then feint towards Rostov could unhinge the "Kharkov Carpet"? If the FBDs converts the line between Bryansk and Orel there should be enough supply. I got a buffer from Voronezh to Orel against Trey and was on course to hold the city through the blizzard.

But you are right this could backfire and leave you with an extended front. Swings. Roundabouts.