Early war strategy for Allies

[spence]

The 'mini-KB' could be a good target for the US CV's early on. It seems to be able to hold its own against Allied LBA but to my mind is over-matched if it runs into a pair or more of US CVs. With their smaller air groups, sometimes with obsolescent A5Ms and no dive bombers the mini-KB is fit mostly for attacking poorly defended targets.

[Barb]

I had just managed to kick Japanese advance to take Singapore. Slipped real reinforcements to Singapore just under the Mini KB nose - complete 18th UK Div plus 44th and 45th Indian brigades.
While 44th and 45th took some loses in defending at Johore Bahru together with both Australian Brigades and 11th plus 9th Indian Divisions (rebuilt), 18th Div rested in Singapore. When Japanese started to overwhelm Johore Bahru defences, I had retreated to Singers. With few days of rest, city terrain and fort level 3 the allied forces really bloodied 4 assaulting Japanese Divisions (5th, 18th, 4th and 21st).

I will lose those units, including 18th UK, but it will take Japanese some time to burn my supplies as well as time to rebuild badly mauled units, and tie up 200 bombers and 100 fighters subject to Flak and ops losses for considerable time as well as 4 Jap Divisions tied up for considerable time.

From my point of view it is really necessary to fight the Japs and to force losses on them - each pilot killed counts, each Oscar shot down counts, each pilot from IJ carrier counts.... You just need create conditions to position yourself in the advantageous position. Do not stay entirely on defensive, you know sweep is more effective than CAP, use altitude advantage, numbers advantage, speed advantage of your planes over Jap ones ... You will find that even medicore pilots in Hurricanes, P-40s or even Buffalos can kill if they had advantageous position... (and you don't even need to create so called "CAP traps" of hundreds of planes to overwhelm the enemy)

[topeverest]

As the allied player early on, taking potions of the fleet and setting counterpulse ambushes with say 1 or 2 CL and 4-6 DD can be devastating. Getting a few small wins is good, but making the empire cover each advance with more forces than desired will reap rewards in the speed and location of the eventual allied turn. This also can be done with american CV's. Also agree that initial batch of empire pilots are a key target for the allies. Setting air traps to bag as many pilots is far more important than counting airframes destroyed.

Remember that the empire has to go after the booty, and most will go for Darwin. there are a limited number of opening empire moves. Burn some assets to make her pay as she advances.

[AW1Steve]

Someone in the German Army once said, "The English will fight to the VERY LAST Australian and Canadian". Well, to some degree that's what I do. I consider almost every Dutch,Austrailain,New Zealand,and any other ally I have at the begining of the game to be expendable. Very few of them get much of an upgrade, so "use 'em or lose 'em". It's cold, but I'd rather give up those ships then my USN CV's , CL's DD's and to a lesser degree CA's and BB's. All of them will be refitted and be more usefull later in the war then they are in the begining. CV's are priceless.

Another point in the Sir Robin defense is that the more land the JFB owns, the more he has to protect and supply. So he wastes troops garrisoning that land. I encourage him to "eat till he explodes". Your lines of communication shorten and his grows.

I don't subscribe to a true "Sir Robin", in that in my case he Morphs into "Vampire Chicken", AKA "Sir Robin grows fangs". [:D] In other words, save your strenght, let him over extend, resist where you can, raid,raid,raid, and always look for a good place to place an ambush. Mines and PT boats are very good to delay him. Your major job for the 1st 8 months or so is to try and be a complete nuisance , till you are strong enough to go back on the offensive. The more ships you save, and the more pilots you train, the faster till you can advance.

[wdolson]

This is a resurrection of an old thread...

I think of the two strategies as the Sir Robin Light and Full Sir Robin. The Sir Robin Light is to some degree historical. The USN conducted carrier raids to get the crews used to war without exposing them to serious danger. It preserved the low stock of carrier airframes and got the fleet ready for a new type of war. Ultimately it worked. The USN was still on the learning curve when the serious battle started, but they were further along the curve.

As far as land forces went, there wasn't much to spare anyway. The British freed up some ground troops and air units from the Med they were able to feed into the fight, but the US was not prepared for anything more than a defensive posture until August 42. The US troops that were deployed were used to strengthen the line well back from the current Japanese line of advance. Holding Noumea and the South Pacific islands were a key strategic plan to keep the life line to Australia open.

ABDA was sort of doomed from the start. If the countries involved had worked a bit better together they may have been able to slow the Japanese a bit more, but ultimately it was a lost cause. The DEI was almost literally at the farthest reaches of the supply chain from the US and the UK. Getting anything there from the US in the early going is a major ordeal.

Bill

[Wirraway_Ace]

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

Someone in the German Army once said, "The English will fight to the VERY LAST Australian and Canadian". Well, to some degree that's what I do. I consider almost every Dutch,Austrailain,New Zealand,and any other ally I have at the begining of the game to be expendable. Very few of them get much of an upgrade, so "use 'em or lose 'em". It's cold, but I'd rather give up those ships then my USN CV's , CL's DD's and to a lesser degree CA's and BB's. All of them will be refitted and be more usefull later in the war then they are in the begining. CV's are priceless.

I find it too easy to stall and defeat the Japanese, even skilled players, without playing with some constraints as the Allies. At the beginning of each game, I roll 1 ten-sided die three times on the following table and use the results to shape my game strategy based on these political "realities". These die rolls are almost as exciting as the turn 1 replay...

1. P38s are assessed as too flawed to be committed into combat until the issue with the inability to recover from a dive is resolved. [P38Es may only be used for stateside training]
2. Best captains get the best boats [the US Navy did not know the fleet boats were carrying less effective torpedoes than the old pig boats; assign the highest naval skill and most aggressive captains to the fleet boats]
3. The United States has no interest in helping Britain regain its colonies [No US divisions, Aircraft carriers and landing craft can be committed to the Southwest Asia until landings have been made in the Philippines; this exclusion includes supporting operations in the major Dutch colonies of Sumatra, Java and British/Dutch Borneo]
4. PM Curtin demands the US meet its commitment to send both the 32nd and 41st Divisions directly to Australia.
5. PM Curtin demands that the 6th and 7th Australian Divisions be returned directly to Australia.
6. PM Churchill directs that Force Z deal with the Japanese landings on the coast of Malaya [order Force Z to intercept Japanese landings at Kota Bharu and/or Singora during the first turn
7. PM Churchill directs that Singapore be held. [Historical reinforcements go to Singapore and turn replacements on for 9th and 11th Indian Divisions.]
8. President Roosevelt puts pressure on ADM King for the Pacific Fleet to strike back at the Japanese [before June 42, conduct a carrier raid against the Home Islands, the Marshals or Rabaul.]
9. The role of the British Pacific Fleet is to protect British interests [no British capital ships can operate in the Pacific prior to 1943. Warspite, after finishing her refit, must transit to join the British fleet in the IO]
10. PM Curtin demands the 2 Brigades of the 8th Australia Division be evacuated from Malaya to Australia

mike

[Wirraway_Ace]

I obviously don't let the Japanese play know what constraints are in play...

[Canoerebel]

I do something like Wirraway Ace since I find it annoying and troublesome that the Japanese can compete on any terms whatsoever. I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself. The resulting number is then implemented from this table:

1. Japanese player realizes he is in over his head on turn one and agrees to surrender.
2. Play John III and he agrees that no Japanese ship had a captain capable enough to take her out of the Sea of Japan.
3. Play Miller and he agrees to pose in his BVDs with Lady Gaga.
4. Play Chez Da Jes, implement Fortress Palembang, and he agrees that Japan cannot use ships to transport any fuel from any port more than three hexes from Tokyo.
5. Play Q-Ball and lull him into an acute state of boredom by withdrawing all ships, aircraft and ground units to Capetown until June 15, 1944. Accept his withdrawal from the game by January 1, 1943.
6. Play Panzerjaeger Hortlund, pretend that I am Nemo, and invade Hokkaido with the entire Australian OOB on February 28, 1942.
7. Play Poultry Lad and pretend that I am left-leaning in my politics.
8. Play Bullwinkle and pretend that I am right-leaning in my politics.
9. Play Cap Mandrake under agreement that he cannot say anything about women and their alluring, lusty, promiscuous tendencies.
10. Play Cribtop on condition that no lawyer terms shall be used.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I do something like Wirraway Ace since I find it annoying and troublesome that the Japanese can compete on any terms whatsoever. I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself. The resulting number is then implemented from this table:

1. Japanese player realizes he is in over his head on turn one and agrees to surrender.
2. Play John III and he agrees that no Japanese ship had a captain capable enough to take her out of the Sea of Japan.
3. Play Miller and he agrees to pose in his BVDs with Lady Gaga.
4. Play Chez Da Jes, implement Fortress Palembang, and he agrees that Japan cannot use ships to transport any fuel from any port more than three hexes from Tokyo.
5. Play Q-Ball and lull him into an acute state of boredom by withdrawing all ships, aircraft and ground units to Capetown until June 15, 1944. Accept his withdrawal from the game by January 1, 1943.
6. Play Panzerjaeger Hortlund, pretend that I am Nemo, and invade Hokkaido with the entire Australian OOB on February 28, 1942.
7. Play Poultry Lad and pretend that I am left-leaning in my politics.
8. Play Bullwinkle and pretend that I am right-leaning in my politics.
9. Play Cap Mandrake under agreement that he cannot say anything about women and their alluring, lusty, promiscuous tendencies.
10. Play Cribtop on condition that no lawyer terms shall be used.

So...you always do one of the bolded options? Seems a shame to limit yourself with so many other great ones on that table!

[AW1Steve]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I do something like Wirraway Ace since I find it annoying and troublesome that the Japanese can compete on any terms whatsoever. I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself. The resulting number is then implemented from this table:

1. Japanese player realizes he is in over his head on turn one and agrees to surrender.
2. Play John III and he agrees that no Japanese ship had a captain capable enough to take her out of the Sea of Japan.
3. Play Miller and he agrees to pose in his BVDs with Lady Gaga.
4. Play Chez Da Jes, implement Fortress Palembang, and he agrees that Japan cannot use ships to transport any fuel from any port more than three hexes from Tokyo.
5. Play Q-Ball and lull him into an acute state of boredom by withdrawing all ships, aircraft and ground units to Capetown until June 15, 1944. Accept his withdrawal from the game by January 1, 1943.
6. Play Panzerjaeger Hortlund, pretend that I am Nemo, and invade Hokkaido with the entire Australian OOB on February 28, 1942.
7. Play Poultry Lad and pretend that I am left-leaning in my politics.
8. Play Bullwinkle and pretend that I am right-leaning in my politics.
9. Play Cap Mandrake under agreement that he cannot say anything about women and their alluring, lusty, promiscuous tendencies.
10. Play Cribtop on condition that no lawyer terms shall be used.

[&o][&o][&o][&o][&o]

[Wirraway_Ace]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I do something like Wirraway Ace since I find it annoying and troublesome that the Japanese can compete on any terms whatsoever. I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself. The resulting number is then implemented from this table:

1. Japanese player realizes he is in over his head on turn one and agrees to surrender.
2. Play John III and he agrees that no Japanese ship had a captain capable enough to take her out of the Sea of Japan.
3. Play Miller and he agrees to pose in his BVDs with Lady Gaga.
4. Play Chez Da Jes, implement Fortress Palembang, and he agrees that Japan cannot use ships to transport any fuel from any port more than three hexes from Tokyo.
5. Play Q-Ball and lull him into an acute state of boredom by withdrawing all ships, aircraft and ground units to Capetown until June 15, 1944. Accept his withdrawal from the game by January 1, 1943.
6. Play Panzerjaeger Hortlund, pretend that I am Nemo, and invade Hokkaido with the entire Australian OOB on February 28, 1942.
7. Play Poultry Lad and pretend that I am left-leaning in my politics.
8. Play Bullwinkle and pretend that I am right-leaning in my politics.
9. Play Cap Mandrake under agreement that he cannot say anything about women and their alluring, lusty, promiscuous tendencies.
10. Play Cribtop on condition that no lawyer terms shall be used.

We have debated this before. I merely point out it is a game that pits a minor industrial power against the World's major industrial power, the World's most populous country, a preeminant naval power and a host of Allies. That the Japanese chose to make war in these circumstances does not change the nature of the game in my view. I do recommend some constraints to Japanese research in PDU on games. I limit myself to research models of aircraft sequentually and each model must be built and used in combat.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I do something like Wirraway Ace since I find it annoying and troublesome that the Japanese can compete on any terms whatsoever. I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself. The resulting number is then implemented from this table:

1. Japanese player realizes he is in over his head on turn one and agrees to surrender.
2. Play John III and he agrees that no Japanese ship had a captain capable enough to take her out of the Sea of Japan.
3. Play Miller and he agrees to pose in his BVDs with Lady Gaga.
4. Play Chez Da Jes, implement Fortress Palembang, and he agrees that Japan cannot use ships to transport any fuel from any port more than three hexes from Tokyo.
5. Play Q-Ball and lull him into an acute state of boredom by withdrawing all ships, aircraft and ground units to Capetown until June 15, 1944. Accept his withdrawal from the game by January 1, 1943.
6. Play Panzerjaeger Hortlund, pretend that I am Nemo, and invade Hokkaido with the entire Australian OOB on February 28, 1942.
7. Play Poultry Lad and pretend that I am left-leaning in my politics.
8. Play Bullwinkle and pretend that I am right-leaning in my politics.
9. Play Cap Mandrake under agreement that he cannot say anything about women and their alluring, lusty, promiscuous tendencies.
10. Play Cribtop on condition that no lawyer terms shall be used.

So...you always do one of the bolded options? Seems a shame to limit yourself with so many other great ones on that table!

There's always a math geek . . . [;)]

[Wirraway_Ace]

To be clearer, the only strategy I consider as an Allied player is how to make the early war fun enough for the Japanese player so he will be willing to play the 43-45 meatgrinder. It is a game, and it must be fun for both players or it will not continue...

Mike

[Wirraway_Ace]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I do something like Wirraway Ace since I find it annoying and troublesome that the Japanese can compete on any terms whatsoever. I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself. The resulting number is then implemented from this table:

1. Japanese player realizes he is in over his head on turn one and agrees to surrender.
2. Play John III and he agrees that no Japanese ship had a captain capable enough to take her out of the Sea of Japan.
3. Play Miller and he agrees to pose in his BVDs with Lady Gaga.
4. Play Chez Da Jes, implement Fortress Palembang, and he agrees that Japan cannot use ships to transport any fuel from any port more than three hexes from Tokyo.
5. Play Q-Ball and lull him into an acute state of boredom by withdrawing all ships, aircraft and ground units to Capetown until June 15, 1944. Accept his withdrawal from the game by January 1, 1943.
6. Play Panzerjaeger Hortlund, pretend that I am Nemo, and invade Hokkaido with the entire Australian OOB on February 28, 1942.
7. Play Poultry Lad and pretend that I am left-leaning in my politics.
8. Play Bullwinkle and pretend that I am right-leaning in my politics.
9. Play Cap Mandrake under agreement that he cannot say anything about women and their alluring, lusty, promiscuous tendencies.
10. Play Cribtop on condition that no lawyer terms shall be used.

So...you always do one of the bolded options? Seems a shame to limit yourself with so many other great ones on that table!

There's always a math geek . . . [;)]

If I read the instructions correctly, Canoerebel only does one of those three options less than a third of the time.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Wirraway_Ace

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna





So...you always do one of the bolded options? Seems a shame to limit yourself with so many other great ones on that table!

There's always a math geek . . . [;)]

If I read the instructions correctly, Canoerebel only does one of those three options less than a third of the time.

He should be doing one of them 38.5875% of the time.


It's not often that I get to break out the math (what fun!), whether in life or in this game, so I suppose the label is appropriate.

[erstad]

He should be doing one of them 38.5875% of the time.

Being that I spend a large fraction of my life playing with numbers...

Canoe said
I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself.

Assuming the antecedent for "itself" is the "largest number divisible by three" (as opposed to the squared number), the squaring and dividing is an identity function. Thus, he is basically taking the largest number divisible by three.

To restrain Mandrake from discussing lusty women, he must roll at least one nine, and no multiples of three larger than 9. For exactly one 9, the probability is
P(1 nines, no large x3) = 3[combinations] * 1/20 [p of a 9] * (16/20)^2 [p of the other two rolls being not a 9, 12, 15, or 18] = 0.096
Likewise,
P(2 nines, no larger x3)= 3 * (1/20)^2 * 16/20 = 0.006
P(3 nines, no larger x3) = 1 * (1/20)^3 = 0.000 (rounding)
So he plays Mandrake 10.2% of the time.

Without going through the rest of the math, one can see by inspection that the probability of invading Hokkaido (option 6) or seeing miller in his BVDs (option 3) has to be smaller than this probability. The first two terms stay the same, but the 16/20 factor for "a different number which is a (non-multiple of 3) (inclusive-or) (is smaller)) decreases. Therefore, the probability of (any of these options) is going to be less than 3*10.2%, i.e., less than 30.6%.

So I believe Wirraway_Ace is correct in saying that Canoerebel does one of these options less than a third of the time, with all the usual caveats (Canoerebel is telling the truth, the die is fair, etc.). Although I acknowledge some possibility of error. I showed you mine, now you show me yours [:D]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: erstad

He should be doing one of them 38.5875% of the time.

Being that I spend a large fraction of my life playing with numbers...

Canoe said
I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself.

Assuming the antecedent for "itself" is the "largest number divisible by three" (as opposed to the squared number), the squaring and dividing is an identity function. Thus, he is basically taking the largest number divisible by three.

To restrain Mandrake from discussing lusty women, he must roll at least one nine, and no multiples of three larger than 9. For exactly one 9, the probability is
P(1 nines, no large x3) = 3[combinations] * 1/20 [p of a 9] * (16/20)^2 [p of the other two rolls being not a 9, 12, 15, or 18] = 0.096
Likewise,
P(2 nines, no larger x3)= 3 * (1/20)^2 * 16/20 = 0.006
P(3 nines, no larger x3) = 1 * (1/20)^3 = 0.000 (rounding)
So he plays Mandrake 10.2% of the time.

Without going through the rest of the math, one can see by inspection that the probability of invading Hokkaido (option 6) or seeing miller in his BVDs (option 3) has to be smaller than this probability. The first two terms stay the same, but the 16/20 factor for "a different number which is a (non-multiple of 3) (inclusive-or) (is smaller)) decreases. Therefore, the probability of (any of these options) is going to be less than 3*10.2%, i.e., less than 30.6%.

So I believe Wirraway_Ace is correct in saying that Canoerebel does one of these options less than a third of the time, with all the usual caveats (Canoerebel is telling the truth, the die is fair, etc.). Although I acknowledge some possibility of error. I showed you mine, now you show me yours [:D]

This History major says CR misspoke., He meant a twenty-ONE-sided die. So, do it all again, please.

Show your work. [8D]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: erstad

He should be doing one of them 38.5875% of the time.

Being that I spend a large fraction of my life playing with numbers...

Canoe said
I roll one twenty-sided dice three times, take the largest number divisible by three, square it, and divide by itself.

Assuming the antecedent for "itself" is the "largest number divisible by three" (as opposed to the squared number), the squaring and dividing is an identity function. Thus, he is basically taking the largest number divisible by three.

To restrain Mandrake from discussing lusty women, he must roll at least one nine, and no multiples of three larger than 9. For exactly one 9, the probability is
P(1 nines, no large x3) = 3[combinations] * 1/20 [p of a 9] * (16/20)^2 [p of the other two rolls being not a 9, 12, 15, or 18] = 0.096
Likewise,
P(2 nines, no larger x3)= 3 * (1/20)^2 * 16/20 = 0.006
P(3 nines, no larger x3) = 1 * (1/20)^3 = 0.000 (rounding)
So he plays Mandrake 10.2% of the time.

Without going through the rest of the math, one can see by inspection that the probability of invading Hokkaido (option 6) or seeing miller in his BVDs (option 3) has to be smaller than this probability. The first two terms stay the same, but the 16/20 factor for "a different number which is a (non-multiple of 3) (inclusive-or) (is smaller)) decreases. Therefore, the probability of (any of these options) is going to be less than 3*10.2%, i.e., less than 30.6%.

So I believe Wirraway_Ace is correct in saying that Canoerebel does one of these options less than a third of the time, with all the usual caveats (Canoerebel is telling the truth, the die is fair, etc.). Although I acknowledge some possibility of error. I showed you mine, now you show me yours [:D]

I didn't take into account any of the other results as only a roll of 3, 6, or 9 will give a valid result on his list. The probability that he rolls a 3, 6, or 9 on a 20-sided die is 3/20 or 15%. Therefore, he will not play any games 85% of the time on any given roll. However, since he rolls 3 times we need to evaluate .85^3, which is 61.4125% of the time. 1 - .614125 = .385875. I don't want to work out the individual probabilities, but shouldn't they all add up to that 38.5875%?

[Canoerebel]

[X(]

[Crackaces]

I have not seen the discussion on the variation of scenario's and home rules. I might propose that the Moose's knife fight game scenario #2 is a much different strategy than one with the stardard homes rules to try and fix WitP. [No 4E's below 10,000 .. or the greyjpy game of 20,000, no 4E ground attacks etc ..] Then there is scenario #1 where the Boise is an interesting intervention and the Allies find the inevitable hole early ...[8D]