Hairy Yankee Reports: Q-Ball (A) v Greyjoy (J)

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball


See below.....

Not minor at all, critical. Change commander there to a good one. Get more troops there. 50:50 you just saved Chungking. Also fortify the mountain hex just behind it as it blocks the paths from Xian, Lanchow, and Nanyang.

We'll know in a week .... good play!

[JocMeister]

Have you started flying in Supply yet?

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Have you started flying in Supply yet?

Yes, I have supplies flying in from Ledo.

I suspect that won't last terribly long, as he'll be able to take Kunming as soon as he can conquer Burma, and walk over from the Mountains.

2/26/42:

OK, I've been pretty busy and it's forever since I did an update. But after the fall of Sinagpore, I think I have a pretty good handle on what the Japanese objectives are.

There is no doubt at all he is all-in on CHINA. And why not? I think he'll be able to clear it, at this rate sometime in 1942! Either way, he'll be able to garrison the Pacific with waves of divisions.

Kido Butai is at SINGAPORE, but shipping is moving north through the Strait of Malacca. We guessed this a few turns back, so I've concentrated alot of subs in the area. A Dutch sub was lost to 250KG bomb, but we've sunk 3 transports and otherwise spotted a pile of ships.

Medan is still operational, so we can watch the IJN sail by, and count everything. So no secret at all that's where the move is. So what's the destination?

Burma:

Paras took an undefended Akyab on the 23rd; we immediately bombed the base to smithereens, with the USAAF bombers I just moved to India. An Indian Bde should kill those Paras easily, but then, what next?

I expect a landing at Akyab by a bunch of troops, and maybe more into Rangoon. That, at a minimum. Of the 7 divisions at Singapore, no doubt 1 or 2 are headed to Java, to clean that up. He needs a few troops for Koepang. The rest into the Bay of Bengal.

He'll need at least 3 divisions to take Chittagong, where I have the 18th UK division dug-in behind lvl-3 forts. I have learned my lesson, the whole rail network in NE India is guarded by at least 40 AV at each dot, dug-in up to lvl 2, and 7th Hussars is around to clean-up any paras. With all the paras he has in China, though, he can't have a whole lot left.

So, I am guessing Akyab, and maybe Cox's Bazaar.

Out of prudence, though, the RN is moving from Colombo. No sense getting sunk in port.

[PaxMondo]

Remember, your opponent is a fan of the deep pass .... look deeper in India if he is going there ... Karachi is the key and he knows it from his prior game ...

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Remember, your opponent is a fan of the deep pass .... look deeper in India if he is going there ... Karachi is the key and he knows it from his prior game ...

Pax, good thoughts. I haven't discounted this.

Karachi has 500 AV, and is well dug-in. The 6th Australian Div is at Bhamgamur, or whatever that coastal hex is by Ahmadebad. An Indian Bde and some Gurkhas are dug-in at Surat. I think I have the "deep hexes" covered. If anything, I may be a little over committed deep.

So far, though, it looks like a move somewhere around Chittagong. He is hugging the Thai coast, and a deeper move would likely strike out into the Indian Ocean. Plus, you really need to clear Ceylon first.

I am keeping 6th Aus in place, though they are on trains, and will move pretty soon barring a break for the south. In NE India, I have 18th UK, 2 Indian Div, and 7th Arm Bde, so some decent troops. I also have 2 Bns. of Canadians.

3/1/42

The Japanese bonus runs out on 4/1. So, by this time, we can start to see long-term plans.

I think he is all-in on China. This means a move on NE India to clear any supply lines, and certainly moves in Burma.

I don't foresee any other deep moves at this point. KB is entering the Bay of Bengal, and there is not time to do a March landing anywhere else. I think Australia is probably safe.

China is clearly a disaster for me, and probably a write-off. I will have to start thinking about how to strike back with half the damn IJA released for garrison duty. He'll have piles of infantry.

But it's not all bad; my naval losses are very low so far, and GJ has been very conservative on gains; he seems to be just going historical at the moment, though a move on N. Australia may be in the cards (which I cannot contest).

But I don't see a move beyond the Solomons or Gilberts, or the small foothold in the Aleutians. Despite the collapse of China, this could present some early opportunities for moving forward, as early as mid-1942. We are considering this.....

Below is the latest shot of move into Bay of Bengal

[Chickenboy]

Hiya Q-ball:

I'd cast my lot with an IJ attack on Ceylon as the destination of those dudes.

What do you have there, at Madras and on the coast side?

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball
Either way, he'll be able to garrison the Pacific with waves of divisions.

I wanted to comment on this bit too. Many Allied players have made this statement-when China is rubbed out, the Japanese player will get waves of infantry divisions for garrison duty.

'Yes and no' is my response. Sure, the act will liberate some troops otherwise used as assault troops in China. But most PBEMs require the Japanese player to pay the PP for re-assigning these troops. As a division sized unit will run something like 1900 PP-that's approximately 35-38 days of exclusive PP supply.

If we also assume that there is a sizeable garrison requirement (as there is in many larger Chinese cities) and that it is difficult to precisely match minimum garrison to available unit strength, then that slows the process further. Lastly, there's any PP requirements for changing 1 engine to 2 engine bomber types with LBA, changing skippers on submarines and ships and so on.

My point? I wouldn't look towards a wave of Japanese IDs released from China. That's unrealistic. It's more like-over the course of a year-one could reasonably release 6 divisions or so. Possibly very helpful for garrison duty, but not without cost-and not an immediate 'wave'.

Wiping the Chinese out DOES liberate some really nicely experienced divisions. Several there with 85-95 EXP. Unlocking this differential ability-giving the Japanese access to their battle-hardened IDs is really where the rubber meets the road, IMO.

[fcharton]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
My point? I wouldn't look towards a wave of Japanese IDs released from China. That's unrealistic. It's more like-over the course of a year-one could reasonably release 6 divisions or so. Possibly very helpful for garrison duty, but not without cost-and not an immediate 'wave'.

I think it all depends on whether you've planned this in advance.

The fall of China should first allow you to relieve Burma, unless you have PP for borders, that's 3-6 divisions free almost at once (you need about two months to walk a division from China to Burma).

You don't need to buy your chinese divisions when they are at full strength. If you buy them while they are fighting in China (and are depleted), you get them for much less than 1900 AV. I know this is politics of the worst sort, but then, "politics" is what PP are all about.

With all this in mind, and considering a fall of China in September, I believe a dozen IJA divisions ready for the Pacific is a likely target.

@QBall: one thing that strikes me in this game is that GreyJoy's strategy seems very close to what he suffered at the hand of Rader. It is said that generals tend to fight the previous war, this might be the case here.

Francois

[obvert]

It is pretty tough to get a lot of divisions paid for and moved out quickly. I'd say 6 a year is about right.

You can buy a few out cheaply when they are disabled, but unless they were completely wrecked and need a ton of reinforcements to fill out TOE (enabling you to turn off reinforcements and keep them cheap), they will just get more expensive as they heal to full strength in a month or two. I also would never want to leave China empty, even in a game where the whole thing was wiped clean. The Allied ability to move units by air and the strength of the Chindits alone would mean areas close to India would have to be well garrisoned.

Really the greatest benefit for the IJ of clearing China should be an increased ability to defend Burma, not the Pacific. The Chinese could lose all of China and still get 500k troops in to the mountains and hold those until the supply line broke open. That is the most critical area in China in my opinion, and should be defended at all costs by the Allied player. Even losing Chunking/Chengtu might not be as devastating as losing the mountains.

[fcharton]

Hi Obvert,

ORIGINAL: obvert
You can buy a few out cheaply when they are disabled, but unless they were completely wrecked and need a ton of reinforcements to fill out TOE (enabling you to turn off reinforcements and keep them cheap), they will just get more expensive as they heal to full strength in a month or two. I also would never want to leave China empty, even in a game where the whole thing was wiped clean.

The idea would be to buy them early, while you are still fighting in China. Once a division is disabled, you just buy it, then use it just as if it were a restricted division (ie rest it, and send it back to the front). If you start doing this early, by the time China falls, you will have quite a few of those. My experience is that you get a 30% discount on PP: 1200 instead of 1800.

Really the greatest benefit for the IJ of clearing China should be an increased ability to defend Burma, not the Pacific. The Chinese could lose all of China and still get 500k troops in to the mountains and hold those until the supply line broke open. That is the most critical area in China in my opinion, and should be defended at all costs by the Allied player. Even losing Chunking/Chengtu might not be as devastating as losing the mountains.

I agree. Taking China doesn' just mean capturing Chungking, but also methodically destroying the remaining troops there. The lack of supplies make it easier, but it still has to be done.

Francois

[Q-Ball]

Good comments.

RE: Destination of IJN Fleet in Bay of Bengal.....at the moment, 3/2/42, the ships disappeared into an air search gap; I think they are closer to Rangoon, because I have search planes at Sabang, and they would probably pick them up moving south. But we'll see.

On Ceylon, I have not reinforced; the only units there is the stuff that you get, basically 3 Indian Brigades that are decent. They are dug-in. If he lands with 4+ divisions, he can take it.

RE: CHINA, and release of IJA........it is correct that PP limits put somewhat of a lid on a massive move, plus garrison requirements. Conquering China probably swallows another 2000 AV beyond the at-start forces. I think the imapact will be seen in 1943-44; Manchuria has plenty of divisions to buy throughout 1942, and as Japan that's where I spend early (keeping the 8000 AV of course)

It is also true that he could then pile troops in Burma. Later on, though, that could be a trap for Japan; the Allies can control the Ocean, and quickly bypass those guys. It takes awhile to march into Thailand.

3/2/42:

Not a ton going on beyond wondering where the IJN is going.... we'll find out.

I am taking advantage of the opportunity to move troops forward in the Aleutians, and also to Luganville and Ndeni. I won't face air opposition, and in both places, I just have some BBs to cover, since I might see an IJN cruiser squadron. I should be able to make my landings easy.

I plan an offensive landing in the Aleutians over the summer; it's a sideshow, but a place I can strike back in 1942. I also hate the Solomons, but one good thing is you can make some progress with LBA only.

CHINA map below:

[Chickenboy]

Hold Kweiyang at all hazards, Q-ball. You don't want to lose that theatre hinge this early in the war, dude.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Hold Kweiyang at all hazards, Q-ball. You don't want to lose that theatre hinge this early in the war, dude.

If he can. He has to hold the hex just SW of Chungking though in the forest. That along with the Mountains just west of Sian allow him to keep the Chungking plain into '43. He may have to get some fighter support into Chungking though or the IJ bombers will decimate his defenses.

PS: At this point, I'm not sure he can keep China. I watching with great interest to see what defense he is able to mount.

[JocMeister]

I think China is already lost. But on´t feel too bad about it Q-ball. By the looks of it most Allied players do loose China during 42. Once you loose Sian and he cuts the oil from the North you supply is just going to nosedive. When it happened in my game it didn´t take long before I had more AV then supply in China. I think in the end I had something like 6k supply in China. [X(]

I think you need to start pulling out and move into the mountains. As obvert says the mountains is the key. If you have a HR for paying PPs for moving units across national borders perhaps you should ask GJ for an exception for Chinese units if China falls.

[TheLoneGunman_MatrixForum]

Didn't GJ lose all of China in his game against Rader?

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: TheLoneGunman

Didn't GJ lose all of China in his game against Rader?

Yes he did!

[TheLoneGunman_MatrixForum]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: TheLoneGunman

Didn't GJ lose all of China in his game against Rader?

Yes he did!

So this isn't some sick experiment, it's just history repeating itself. [:D]

[JocMeister]

[:D]

[Q-Ball]

3/3/42

Gentlemen, we have a destination: VIZINGAPATAM!

Yes, intel reports not just one, but three reports of units on AKs headed to Vizingaptam on the Indian Coast. 2 Artillery Units and a Base Force, but I'm sure it's more than that. You can bet on it!

Vizingapatam is undefended; I chose to focus on Chittagong, and you can defend both. So, he will have the opportunity to land there. Then what?

I am moving 6th Australian Division to Cocanda, and other forces including tanks to the rough terrain leading outside of Viz. I hope to delay him, becuase it takes awhile to march through India. Trust me, I know.

So, with a landing confirmed on the Indian mainland, let's take stock of what's there

India Proper:

I haven't moved any of the Indian Army out of India; so, there are 3 weak divisions (19th, 20th, 7th) that are getting stronger each day as they take replacements, train, and gain morale. A couple more of these weaker divisions are coming soon as reinforcements. They are OK with some training.

The 6th Australian Div and 18th UK Division, plus the 7th Arm Bde, are on the Indian Mainland in various parts, and are all good troops. 2 Brigades of the 7th Aus are also in India, and the last one is on it's way from Aden. There are also a few miscelaneous Indian Brigades of course, of differing quality, and some independent Gurkha and other Bns here and there.

The 70th UK division appears in 12 days in Karachi; in this version, it's a full Infantry division, with 80 experience. Really tough, in other words.

The RAF is all here, plus 3 US Fighter Squadrons, 3 Medium B-26 squadrons, and 3 B-17 units. I have another group of 4 units on the way to Cape Town. I also have 2 Marine DB units. I am very glad I shifted US air units to India early; it's a must-do IMO, because the RAF needs supplemental help, escpecially in BOMBERS. Wish I had a few more, but they are coming.

Overall, aside from moving the US Marines to India early, not much more I could have put there. I feel good about the preparations, we'll see how it goes.

I want to see what lands before developing a defensive plan; but no matter what, we are going to hold Bombay. It has piles and piles of supplies, almost half a million, and given a 1000 AV garrison, it would take the whole IJA to clear it.

I am not discounting further landings up the Indian Coast, but he is racing the clock now against the April 1 deadline, and if he plans to go deeper, needs to get on Ceylon right away. You can't land at Goa or other points, without clearing Ceylon, IMO.

We'll see how this goes, but interesting move.

[Canoerebel]

I have lots of experience defending India (as you know, drat you). A couple of pointers, though I realize you may be way, way ahead of me:

1. Landing bonus only means something when a beach is defended, so the expiration of the bonus may not mean very much if anything if GJ targets Ceylon or a lightly defended beach on the west coast (Cochin, Goa, etc.).

2. If he brings armor, prepare to retire quickly. You don't want to get the bulk of your army isolated in NE India, undable to withraw because the roads and rail lines to the rear have been severed.