Decline & Fall AAR v2

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

So we're only talking like 29 factors on land that can combine to hit Rouen.


If the French scrap hard, they can winnow their inf until they have something of 7 strength, and that means they are sure of at least 8 ground factors in Rouen if they send the inf and an infdiv. None of the Axis fighters can reach Rouen, so they can double on defensive ground support more or less at will, whereas Axis bombers have to run the gauntlet of the dozen or so fighters that can be hanging around in southern England.

You're looking at what? A 2:1 attack at best, so if you're still playing 2D10 and throw in the city penalty, you'd need to roll an 15 or better to knock them out on an immediate impulsive counterattack. (Assuming Runsdedt does HQ support) And even that leaves most of the German reserves face down and their critical HQ flipped, and gives the Allies an enormously free hand to jump in just about anywhere else.


If you super duper go all in; Inf and infdiv and Partisan in Rouen, De Gaulle and Mtndiv and partisan in Boulogne, and say, the U.S. and CW Para in that hex that's due east of Rouen (Will there be an option to turn the hex numbers back on in the game? I've gotten so used to using them for articulating plans), you'll probably lose some guys in the inevitable Axis counterattack, but you'll leave a bunch of guys flipped, and you'll almmost certainly keep your beachhead.


And the Germans have to react; at that point you're only 2 hexes away from Paris. (Which you might want to groundstrike pretty hard in this plan, no fighters to cover it, in the open, and two of the biggest guys sitting there)

[composer99]

We'll see what the Allies do when I get to setting them up, and especially when they do their first impulses.

Obviously, the advantage the Allies have is that the Germans have to mount a credible defence, or at least a credible counter-strike threat, across almost all of France. The Allies can pick their targets after seeing what the Germans do.

(At least, from the German perspective, neither the US nor the CW has Marine units in the UK in this scenario...)

[composer99]

Before proceeding with the USSR setup, I suppose I should show the major German naval concentration, in Kiel.

There are additional submarines if I scroll down, but what you are seeing is the vertical limit of my laptop screen.

[composer99]

Step 4. USSR Setup

So, now on to the Soviet Union.

First up: scrapping.

The USSR aggressively scraps FTR with 4 or lesser air combat rating.

[composer99]

Next up: bomber scrapping.

Every single-engine or twin-engine bomber with 3 or fewer ground attack factors that is eligible gets scrapped. Only long-range bombers are spared.

[composer99]

The USSR also scraps older submarine squadrons, to make sure the forces it does get are up-to-date (more or less).

You can see on the far left of the scrapped units in view that the USSR has scrapped a naval bomber with 2 naval bombing factors. Since building a naval bomber is unlikely, the USSR figures it might as well only be able to build 3-factor ones.

[composer99]

While the USSR did scrap some sealift, it isn't a particularly pressing part of USSR strategy to know what's going on with sealift. So I won't bother showing it.

As for land unit scrapping, the USSR is on the attack, so it wants to have strong, red-print anti-tank/anti-air units (which are doubled on defence and on attack when fighting ARM/MECH).

The USSR also scraps its crappy old motorized armies. These units aren't even useful in marginal terrain, so off they go to the scrapheap. The USSR might consider scrapping its crappiest infantry armies as well, but because it can replace them on the map with Siberians, it won't do so just yet.

[composer99]

USSR Strategic Considerations

As mentioned on the other thread, the USSR has one simple goal:

HULK SMASH!!!!

So the strategic question is where to smash and when.

Objectives
According to the scenario booklet, the USSR & Communist China, taken together, need to control 13 objectives for a draw.

So, the USSR's goal is to control 14 (or more) objectives by the end of the game. The USSR begins the scenario with control of 8 objectives: 7 Soviet and 1 Communist Chinese. So, to be in a winning position, the USSR must seize 6 more objectives (or more, if time permits).

The target list will thus be, in no particular order: Helsinki, Warsaw, Port Arthur, Bucharest, Belgrade, Budapest. If time and random die rolls permit, the USSR will also aim to pick up Vienna, Prague, and Berlin - and perhaps even race the Allies to Munich if it can clear the passes through the Alps quickly enough.

Advantages
The USSR's advantages are legion, along with its forces:
- a big, strong army
- more ARM/MECH than Germany in theatre
- the Guards Banner armies aren't on the map yet - their addition (through victory in combat) improves the on-map USSR forces and will ultimately lead to more units on the map
- excellent production that is no longer threatened by Axis advances
- the other Allies to distract the Axis and keep them from defending at full strength - either in terms of units or action economy - against its advances
- once produced, a massive air force
- the USSR begins play with [s]one[/s] two offensive chits "in its pocket" (so to speak)

Disadvantages
- the Red Army Air Force is not particularly strong when compared to the German air force, and particularly not with the unit draws it got in the event
- no other offensive chits arriving as reinforcements: the USSR has to build them
- not a big army in the Far East, so time and production is required to build up to attack Japan
- Vladivostok is slightly vulnerable to attack

Plan of Attack
During the first summer, the USSR will pound against the German lines, hoping to kill some hefty units and thin the line out in order to crack it open. This will proceed in three prongs:
(1) Striking south from Bessarabia, the USSR will seize Bucharest, Ploesti, and Sofia, knocking Rumania and Bulgaria out of the war. This force will turn west and cross the mountains to attack Belgrade and Budapest.
(2) Striking west from the Ukraine, the Red Army will push the Germans back to the Vistula. This force will split up, with some elements pushing south to join the Hungarian front, and others pressing on with the rest of the Polish front.
(3) Striking west from Belorussia, the Red Army will push the Germans back to East Prussia and the Vistula. This force will aim to cross the Vistula in force by wintertime, and make the final push for Berlin in 1945.

In the meantime, the Red Army will conduct a war of manouevre against the Finns and build up on the Manchurian frontier. When the Red Army Air Force is sufficiently built up, the USSR will crush Finland, and when the Far East Front is sufficiently built up, ideally by January/February 1945, the USSR will invade Manchuria and seize Port Arthur at the earliest opportunity.

[composer99]

The Far East Front

Right now, this stack in Vladivostok is the only force in the Far East Front.

This will change: reinforcements from production and transfers (as other front lines shorten) are forecast to allow the USSR the opportunity to declare war, and swoop down on most of Manchuria, over the winter.

Depending on how easily the Japanese form a line in the mountains guarding Port Arthur, and of course depending on how easily the city can be kept supplied by sea, the USSR may not secure Port Athur itself until the summer of '45.

[composer99]

Persia

Persia.

Not much going on here. The USSR will throw some 2- or 3-factor MIL units in to eliminate the possibility of partisans appearing.

I did get a bit of flak for doing that in the previous version of the AAR - but I stand by that decision. Proper play is proper play, and in this case as far as I am concerned the proper play is to take no chances with partisans and oil.

[composer99]

The Karelia Front

Not much going on up here, either.

The USSR will send a unit to screen Petsamo, thus preventing the Germans from sending it down the road to be shipped for production. Assuming the USSR conquers Finland in a timely fashion, it will be able to use the Petsamo resource itself for a few turns.

[composer99]

The Finnish & Leningrad Fronts

Forces stationed in Leningrad and a Front under the command of HQ-I Yeremenko will deal with Finland, although making progress will probably have to wait until the winter when the Germans have some more bombers in the area.

The Baltic Front isn't up to much: it will probably just let the 2-3 German corps in the area withdraw as the Belorussian Front does its thing.

[composer99]

The Belorussia Front

This Front aims to drive the German forces in theatre back by threatening encirclement of their forward spearheads unless they withdraw.

The strong German fighter presence, compared to the Red Army Air Force fighter draws, will be a problem to deal with, although what the USSR can't beat in quality it can swamp with quantity.

The USSR expects to reach the Vistula sometime during the winter, and cross it in force during the winter as well (courtesy of offensive chits).

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Ur_Vile_WEdge

So we're only talking like 29 factors on land that can combine to hit Rouen.


If the French scrap hard, they can winnow their inf until they have something of 7 strength, and that means they are sure of at least 8 ground factors in Rouen if they send the inf and an infdiv. None of the Axis fighters can reach Rouen, so they can double on defensive ground support more or less at will, whereas Axis bombers have to run the gauntlet of the dozen or so fighters that can be hanging around in southern England.

You're looking at what? A 2:1 attack at best, so if you're still playing 2D10 and throw in the city penalty, you'd need to roll an 15 or better to knock them out on an immediate impulsive counterattack. (Assuming Runsdedt does HQ support) And even that leaves most of the German reserves face down and their critical HQ flipped, and gives the Allies an enormously free hand to jump in just about anywhere else.


If you super duper go all in; Inf and infdiv and Partisan in Rouen, De Gaulle and Mtndiv and partisan in Boulogne, and say, the U.S. and CW Para in that hex that's due east of Rouen (Will there be an option to turn the hex numbers back on in the game? I've gotten so used to using them for articulating plans), you'll probably lose some guys in the inevitable Axis counterattack, but you'll leave a bunch of guys flipped, and you'll almmost certainly keep your beachhead.


And the Germans have to react; at that point you're only 2 hexes away from Paris. (Which you might want to groundstrike pretty hard in this plan, no fighters to cover it, in the open, and two of the biggest guys sitting there)

All the hex numbers have changed. Moving the cursor over a hex displays the hex numbers for that hex in the Main form.

[composer99]

The Ukrainian & Rumanian Fronts

These fronts are the ones with the stiffest German resistance, necessitating the strongest USSR set up.

If the USSR uses its offensive chit this turn, it will be in order to take a crack at a couple of strong hexes on this front, which will likely force a withdrawal by the Germans.

The USSR's priority will be to crush the Rumanian sector in order to power its way to Bucharest and Ploesti as soon as possible.

Progress in the Ukrainian Front will also be made indirectly as the German forces north of the Pripet Marshes withdraw.

[composer99]

The Black Sea

The Red Army is set to recapture Sevastopol. Once this is done, these units will transfer to other theatres - likely the Ukrainian & Rumanian Fronts - in order to elongate the line and stretch the German defences further.

[composer99]

Reinforcements & Force Pools

USSR's reinforcements for July-August.

This is the only turn for which the USSR has pre-set reinforcements.

[composer99]

The USSR's reserve pool.

The most conspicuous feature of the reserve pool is the presence of the Guard Banner Armies. These elite forces appear on the map when the Red Army defeats German-controlled forces in battle.

[composer99]

The USSR fighter force pool.

It's pretty huge, but the USSR will need to churn out a lot of these to compete with the German air force in the skies over Belorussia, Poland, Rumania, the Balkans, and Germany.

[composer99]

The USSR bomber force pool, including naval bombers and air transports.

The USSR will aim to crank these out as well: a big air force is a key to victory: if by the summer of 1945 the USSR can start each turn off with an air impulse (possibly boosted by an offensive chit) it can leave the German lines in disarray in the wake of wave after wave of bombing runs... and then shatter them.