A World on Fire

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: warspite1
I am interested to see how others deal with the Sino-Japanese war. I just cannot seem to get decent attacks going - especially once the Chinese are in the mountains.

Well, just read my latest AAR with the Japanese. I fully agree with your statement and adapted my strategy to the sheer reality that China is not there to be conquered: it's there to make the Japanese life miserable! So my new strategy is to deny them this capability.

[yvesp]

As for the situation in the west, I think it is quite bad for Germany.
Baring luck (always possible), breaking the French will require the second offensive.
And if Poland is not fallen by December, there will be fun in the East!

I once tried to play like this, attacking on both sides. It turned ugly. France never fell! Needless to say that it was not good for Germany.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: yvesp

As for the situation in the west, I think it is quite bad for Germany.
Baring luck (always possible), breaking the French will require the second offensive.
And if Poland is not fallen by December, there will be fun in the East!

I once tried to play like this, attacking on both sides. It turned ugly. France never fell! Needless to say that it was not good for Germany.

As Germany I am quite happy with how things look. But things may still change. I feel that Germany is way ahead of the time table regardless that Poland survive at least one more turn.

----

I had not planned to declare war with Italy this turn but now I have begun to have second thoughts.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: yvesp

As for the situation in the west, I think it is quite bad for Germany.
Baring luck (always possible), breaking the French will require the second offensive.
And if Poland is not fallen by December, there will be fun in the East!

I once tried to play like this, attacking on both sides. It turned ugly. France never fell! Needless to say that it was not good for Germany.

As Germany I am quite happy with how things look. But things may still change. I feel that Germany is way ahead of the time table regardless that Poland survive at least one more turn.

----

I had not planned to declare war with Italy this turn but now I have begun to have second thoughts.

As long as Germany can use the Polish resources, this doesn't hurt Germany at all, I believe...

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: Orm
As Germany I am quite happy with how things look. But things may still change. I feel that Germany is way ahead of the time table regardless that Poland survive at least one more turn.

What I see is that Germany will be stuck for two turns on its current positions (still except for possible luck if the weather keeps being good, which happens) ; the British can bring more corps in defense (no foreign commitment in Belgium), relieving the French from some pressure. So I strongly expect that this position will be the same in March/april, with one offensive gone: it's bad. I may be wrong.

I'd seriously consider building an additional HQ with the CW as soon as possible, to allow for a greater presence in France. With two turns of bad weather you could face a reinforced France (its infantries will be coming.) As long as you are not finished with Poland, you have no reserves, which means that a success that disorganizes some troops can hardly be put to good use.

You will have at some point to retreat Gort in France to prevent the destruction of reteating CW units that can only retreat in France. That happened to me, and I felt kind of stupid!

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: Centuur
As long as Germany can use the Polish resources, this doesn't hurt Germany at all, I believe...

I don't see the game as excluively one of resource control, even though that is important.

Note that such a focus might have cost Hitler the war, as he insisted on going to the caucasian oil plants, ignoring Russian troops that were reinforcing.

Its good to hold the resources, but that doens't make a strategy.

[Orm]

I forgot to post a picture on how I moved the CW units. Not happy with how it looks.


Picture from Sep/Oct 39 Impulse #6 (Allied) - End of Impulse

[Orm]

The fine Autumn weather ends.


Picture from Sep/Oct 39 Impulse #7 (Axis) - Weather

[Orm]

No declarations of war.

Germany select a combined impulse. Japan go with land.

No Port Strikes. No naval air.

Four cruisers move from Memel to Kiel.

No strategic bombing. No ground strikes. Germany rails a division from Copenhagen to Liege.

Minor Japanese movement in China due to the bad weather.

Germany just makes one attack against the French motorized corps and that one is automatic. I wanted to attack the Gort stack as well but then I would not have had an automatic attack against the French hex. So I chickened out.


Picture from Sep/Oct 39 Impulse #7 (Axis) - Land Combat Declaration

[yvesp]

Question: why was the French mot alone in its hex while the not so exposed 6-4 or 5-3 or 5-4 (near Lille) units appear to be in a stack ?

One of these could well have been left alone or stacked with Bilotte, which would have given you a 2 unit line with no specific weakness. The hex east of Billotte in particular is at very little risk: a single stack attack against a river protected hex would have been suicide for the Germans.

With a second unit in the stack, and defensive support from Billotte, adding in bad weather, I doubt the Germans would have had that easy a time... Letting Germany eat the French units one at a time is a sure receipt foir disaster: One mot is more than half the French production!

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: yvesp

Question: why was the French mot alone in its hex while the not so exposed 6-4 or 5-3 or 5-4 (near Lille) units appear to be in a stack ?

One of these could well have been left alone or stacked with Bilotte, which would have given you a 2 unit line with no specific weakness. The hex east of Billotte in particular is at very little risk: a single stack attack against a river protected hex would have been suicide for the Germans.

With a second unit in the stack, and defensive support from Billotte, adding in bad weather, I doubt the Germans would have had that easy a time... Letting Germany eat the French units one at a time is a sure receipt foir disaster: One mot is more than half the French production!

I'll try to explain how I reasoned at the time when I decided to sacrifice that MOT.

1) I placed my units as I expected fine weather and that Germany would get at least two more impulses this turn. It was 60% risk that the weather would be fine this impulse.

2) One German stack against 6 in defence would have been 4 to 1 (with 33% chance of 5 to 1) with a +1 on the die roll and that is a 60% risk of a breakthrough on the blitz table. This is if the weather was fine.

3) HQ support has only a 20% chance of working with the 1d10 table.

4) I also feared an attack versus Gort that, in fine weather, would have been a 4 to one blitz. Or 3.5 to 1 with possible positive die modifiers.

5) The hex East of Billotte contains a ART that couldn't reach any further and that is why it was two units in that hex.

6) Given that Germany has a 5 point Stuka available I did not feel like stacking Billote with another unit in a clear hex. Fearing that it would be stuck in that hex and killed if Germany got two more impulses. Once again my fear that the weather would be fine played a huge part in this.

7) The reason that I choose the MOT for the sacrifice is that I thought it the worst unit that France had available.

8) And lastly why I didn't stack two units in the forest hex was because I expected that they both would be killed, or shattered, in a 5 to 1 blitz attack.

I am sure that there are many flaws to this but that was what I was thinking at the time. More or less anyway. Please keep asking and criticise my game play because it helps me improve and evaluate how I play. [:)]

Now I feel that my placement of Bilotte was less than optimal. [:(]


Edit: That I hoped to make so few land moves next impulse that French could make a combined might also played some part in it. I do remember that I thought about it for a while but I am not sure if I considered it when I placed the units.

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: Orm
1) I placed my units as I expected fine weather and that Germany would get at least two more impulses this turn. It was 60% risk that the weather would be fine this impulse.

Aggreed

2) One German stack against 6 in defence would have been 4 to 1 (with 33% chance of 5 to 1) with a +1 on the die roll and that is a 60% risk of a breakthrough on the blitz table. This is if the weather was fine.

Why 6 ? I'd say 11. the 6 inf and a 5 inf. And no mot which is more expensive.

3) HQ support has only a 20% chance of working with the 1d10 table.

One of the reasons I prefer the 2D10 table.
One of the other reason is that forest give the defender an advantage (rather, it is more risky to attack in forest: losses are superior)

4) I also feared an attack versus Gort that, in fine weather, would have been a 4 to one blitz. Or 3.5 to 1 with possible positive die modifiers.

Fine: it's better if the German lose their energy on the British. They are there for that purpose. A smart German will absolutely ignore them. A wise British will push them to divert the German.
Anyway, if the attack on the British was so frightening, why did the Germn not do it in that case ? A successful Blitz right into Lille would already have broken the French defense by bypassing the British, opening the coast ?

5) The hex East of Billotte contains a ART that couldn't reach any further and that is why it was two units in that hex.

But Billotte could be in that hex instead of the inf which should be in the forest.

6) Given that Germany has a 5 point Stuka available I did not feel like stacking Billote with another unit in a clear hex. Fearing that it would be stuck in that hex and killed if Germany got two more impulses. Once again my fear that the weather would be fine played a huge part in this.

You shouldn't play with fear in mind. In that way, you were certain to lose one unit (4BP), rather than risk the remotely possible chance of losing another more expensive unit (5BP) ; that chance required conditions that were certainly unsure: good weather, lasting impulses, successfull ground strike. Overall, you made a bad choice based on the eventuallity of a succession of events that likely had less than 15% chance of occuring.

7) The reason that I choose the MOT for the sacrifice is that I thought it the worst unit that France had available.

Bad choice. You'll not rebuild it probably. And while it is admitedly not good, it can plug holes: the number of hexes where Germany can reasonnably attack is actually small ; other hexes have still to be kept, but such lowly units can do the job.

8) And lastly why I didn't stack two units in the forest hex was because I expected that they both would be killed, or shattered, in a 5 to 1 blitz attack.

Shatter is OK when it happens near the end of turn. It doesn't lose you any BP and the units are right there on the next turn.
And it's better to take that risk rather than just give one unit. If you were so fearfull, you should have abandonned the hex, leaving only a flat line which is more difficult to attack.
Once again, you gave the German a unit to eat, and that doesn't even give a chance to stop them: a 3-1 or so attack could have cost you, but likely disorganized and stopped the German offensive, letting you breathe all through winter!

Edit: That I hoped to make so few land moves next impulse that French could make a combined might also played some part in it. I do remember that I thought about it for a while but I am not sure if I considered it when I placed the units.

The French are running for their life! I know your main ships are poorly placed. But you have all winter to move them back. No hurry. I thought that the German attack on Belgium gave a rather bad situation for the axis, but if the allies do similar mistakes, things are even...

[yvesp]

Oh, and have you been agressively pushing the Russian units to the German border, including all planes ?

You stand reasonable chances to break the pact as soon as January ; I'm doubtfull that Germany can take Varshaw on the next turn, in winter, with weak units.

I'd be very curious to see how a Russian war declaration in 40 would evolve and change the war.

[Orm]

Anyway, if the attack on the British was so frightening, why did the Germn not do it in that case ? A successful Blitz right into Lille would already have broken the French defense by bypassing the British, opening the coast ?

Because the weather was not fine. I, as German, hope on one more impulse this turn.

Why 6 ? I'd say 11. the 6 inf and a 5 inf. And no mot which is more expensive.

The 6 strength was an answer to why I did not single stack against a one hex attack.

Once again, you gave the German a unit to eat, and that doesn't even give a chance to stop them: a 3-1 or so attack could have cost you, but likely disorganized and stopped the German offensive, letting you breathe all through winter!
A 3-1 attack is one thing but when I placed the units I was expecting 4-1+1 or higher.

The French are running for their life! I know your main ships are poorly placed. But you have all winter to move them back. No hurry. I thought that the German attack on Belgium gave a rather bad situation for the axis, but if the allies do similar mistakes, things are even...

Could you please explain why the main ships are poorly placed and what a good placement would be?


Last I want to point out that with fine weather the turn might have lasted for even three more German impulses, and two more impulses was more likely than not.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: yvesp

Oh, and have you been agressively pushing the Russian units to the German border, including all planes ?

You stand reasonable chances to break the pact as soon as January ; I'm doubtfull that Germany can take Varshaw on the next turn, in winter, with weak units.

I'd be very curious to see how a Russian war declaration in 40 would evolve and change the war.

No. I have not and I doubt I will do that. But I gladly do the math once January arrive. [:)]

[Orm]

No declarations of war.

France select a combined impulse and CW a naval.

No Port Strikes. No naval air.

CW transport a Indian Corps to Egypt. They also send out some convoy escorts. One CP sails to the North Sea for supply purposes. The Fleet in the Far East sail towards the European theatre of operations.

While moving the CW ships I took the time to read the excellent historical description of HMS Repulse.



Picture from Sep/Oct 39 Impulse #9 (Allied) - Naval Movement

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: Orm
A 3-1 attack is one thing but when I placed the units I was expecting 4-1+1 or higher.

Why +1 ?

The French are running for their life! I know your main ships are poorly placed. But you have all winter to move them back. No hurry. I thought that the German attack on Belgium gave a rather bad situation for the axis, but if the allies do similar mistakes, things are even...

Could you please explain why the main ships are poorly placed and what a good placement would be?

That may be a confusion of mine with another thread. I thought your capaital ships were not in France. Sorry.

Last I want to point out that with fine weather the turn might have lasted for even three more German impulses, and two more impulses was more likely than not.

Well ; your best hope lies in stopping the offensive short: the Germans have no reserves. You have at some point to rely on luck, but you have to try and trick chance on your side.

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: yvesp

Oh, and have you been agressively pushing the Russian units to the German border, including all planes ?

You stand reasonable chances to break the pact as soon as January ; I'm doubtfull that Germany can take Varshaw on the next turn, in winter, with weak units.

I'd be very curious to see how a Russian war declaration in 40 would evolve and change the war.

No. I have not and I doubt I will do that. But I gladly do the math once January arrive. [:)]

You must not wait!

The troops must be ready by the start of January : you might catch the Germans with their pants down. Suppose the allies get initiative then and you can instantly declare war ?

It is also a strong way to relieve the pressure on France: if the Germans believe they must send one more unit east, that is one less west! and it counts!

[Centuur]

I think I agree. The French are not using their forces the way they should have used them. The loss of the MOT isn't that bad, but it shouldn't have happened. Let the Germans attack the CW instead. They can stand to take the losses, the French can't, unless the CW lends a lot of resources or build points to the French...

Also, if Poland survives the first turn, during the second turn the USSR should try to put pressure in nov/dec on Germany by putting everything they have at the border with Germany. Everything! It's the only way they can support the French, especially since the chance is there that the Poles will survive in Warsaw in the nov/dec turn, due to bad weather coming up. If that happens, the USSR might be able to break the pact. They should do so immediately and DoW Germany. Remember, Germany can't align Hungary, Finland or Rumania if the USSR did DoW Germany (provided it didn't take the Borderlands or Bessarabia in the cases of Finland and Rumania). So that leaves Germany on it's own against the (albeit small in number of forces) Russian bear and the Wallies...

To have a two front war going on in the first turn involves taking this into account by Germany. It also involves the possibility that reinforcements won't go to France in J/F 1940, but have go to the Eastern Front...

It's kind of a Chess game. In the opening stages, react on what your opponent does. Never sit back and relax with the USSR. Never, ever. Always look for possibilities to aid you Western Allies. It will come in handy in later stages of the game if they remember that you did what you could to help them (even if it is without success).

[yvesp]

I would even go as far as strip some (one or two) of the units in Siberia if that seems to give an edge. iirc there is a plane over there. Everything that can give you a chance to break the pact. Japan won't declare war in winter ; by the time that good weather comes, you can build new units right there in March, to replace these you moved.

Note that you'll need three impulses to do this for one unit! so better start as soon as possible.