Fischia il Vento - loki100 vs smokindave34 ... German marginal victory T94

[loki100]

Turn 46: 20-26 May 1944

Before we start, here is the VP position. I strongly suspect it is never going to be that good again.



As you can see my VP cost for casualties went up ... a lot, as did the actual losses:



But the best news is that my weather gamble paid off, clear skies and solid ground. Clear skies of course means the Allied airforce can deploy in all its power.



Which led to heavy losses. 262 shot down and 1676 damaged. The pay off was impressive levels of interdiction and every body ashore or landing. The 2 paratroop divisions will help me make some progress inland.



Elements of 1 US Army were able to push onto 101 Airborne and crack part of the defensive line in their sector.



Even better, VIII British corps actually managed not just to exploit that victory but hammer the retreating Germans again.



Of importance, forcing a retreat in hexes with high interdiction is a really useful loss multiplier, they take actual casualties on the retreat and even more disruptions.

However, reality sets in with a significant defeat on 1 British Army's sector. Caen holds out.



Despite this, I'm able to push 2 divisions off the beaches onto the hex captured by 6 Airborne.

You can't sustain Soviet style attrition attacks with the Allies but I think there are times when you need to persist with low odds attacks. Due to my interdiction, those Germans at Caen will only receive limited supplies and struggle to convert disrupted units back to combat ready (and will take fatigue in any case). I need Caen to really be able to break out so I'll persist despite the losses and impact on the VP score.

I hastily bring in some fresh units to occupy the spare beaches but leave all the command formations at sea for the moment.



So far my decision to go for Normandy feels vindicated. The sheer volume of tactical airpower is enough to negate the German defensive benefit for the bocage (at least in a few key hexes) but the bocage is protecting my advances. A stack of 3 full strength allied Infantry divisions can easily generate a defensive value of 60-70 with the terrain multiplier. To shift that would mean a massive commitment, in a region where every hex is well plastered by air interdiction.

My first goal is to avoid the penalty for not having 10 hexes by August. That is 7 already. In turn this means I can make secondary invasions exactly when it suits me, rather than to meet the VP criteria (and to be clear, I approve of this penalty).

In turn that means I can keep all my tactical air power concentrated on a very small area and that escalates the damage inflicted on the German army to the point that it starts to fall apart.

I think the Allies have two key tactical advantages. First while you can never match the CV of the very best German divisions a well constructed Allied infantry division can have a CV of 10-12. 2 full stacks of those will move all but the strongest defender, so you can probe for weak spots. The key one is to concentrate your tactical airpower, this helps in the short term but creates a situation of escalating damage if you maintain this level of interdiction for 4-5 turns.

[jwolf]

Two big related questions:

Did you land early enough that his defensive preparation wasn't so effective?

Can he counterattack, and how badly will you be hit?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Two big related questions:

Did you land early enough that his defensive preparation wasn't so effective?

Can he counterattack, and how badly will you be hit?

For the first question. No I don't think it'll make much difference. Haven't played from the German side yet so maybe I've just avoided some reinforcements but I can't think they would be critical. The exploit of the early game trick of moving the invasion to France is at start most of the German army in France is frozen. People seem to do this to Pelton quite a lot and looking at the AARs one person won big as a result but the others failed - I think the logic that the British had in reality of being too weak to take on the Germans in open combat was valid.

He could attack, the AI did in my other game. But Dave has been more cautious and I've learnt quite a bit. The levels of interdiction that I've generated means anything moving into the battle area is going to get chewed up and if it pulls back it'll get a second going over (or a square do as it is sometimes called in the more genteel corners of Glasgow).

But he is facing stacks of about 65-70 defensive CV, built up from 3 infantry divisions at a base cv of 10-12 each and then doubled by the bocage penalty, plus being surrounded by high interdiction. That means Dave would need to attack with 130 or so and that would mean the bulk of his decent units coming to exactly where my airpower is strongest. The reason my stacks are stronger is I've got better at allocating support units.

Equally that is why I chose Normandy. The bocage is both friend and foe. It doubles his cv but I can find weak spots and really hammer them, first with air then on the ground. If I advance it makes my gains almost irreversible. Again looking at other AARs, ironically landing in clear terrain, such as east of Le Havre, seems to lead to a quicker stalemate as the allies daren't advance too much.

[jwolf]

Thanks for the review of your strategy in choosing that area. It's an irony that you can turn his good defensive terrain against him.

Thanks also for another lesson in Scottish. [;)]

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Thanks for the review of your strategy in choosing that area. It's an irony that you can turn his good defensive terrain against him.

Thanks also for another lesson in Scottish. [;)]

aye the bocage is a good and bad for us both. Its like in WiTE in a situation where the two sides are equal, its 'easy' enough to drive the enemy out of a hex but hard to hold it. With the Soviets that sort of attritional struggle ends up playing into your hands but the VP/loss mechanism in WiTW makes it less practical. Also in the first phase off the beaches its near impossible to leave slots for units to retreat so you run the risk of allied units routing off to Northern Ireland (why they all go to NI being one of the stranger game decisions ... the often grumpy locals around places like South Armagh must get very confused).

But Dave needs to cover everywhere, I can concentrate airpower to peel open one small section of his front.

my long term plan is to find a situation I can legitimately describe as a 'stairheid rammy' for a drawn out contested battle (the term reflects both a style of housing common in Glasgow and our tendency to explain, in a respectful way, why some one is a total numpty who you wouldn't trust with the messages). We shall see.

[loki100]

Turn 47: 27 May – 2 June 1944

One difference to playing the Allies in WiTW as opposed to the Soviets in WiTE is taking next to no interest in the various manpower and resource pools. On the assumption I avoid any major disasters, it seems as if this is no constraint at all.



For the air war, decided I was doing well enough over Normandy to release some of the heavier bombers to hit Germany.



The outturn was not too bad. 313 shot down, 2130 damaged. Bomber Command did an effective job around Bonn and 8 Air hit the fuel plants at the Ruhr.



Good interdiction levels over the main battlefields. Should help US 1 Army make progress on the west side of the Cotentin.



After a few turns shuffling units up that narrow coastal road, decided to try and expand my position on the Basento in southern Italy. Bit of a disaster but again that unit should now be weakened.



US 1 Army shows 8 Army how its to be done.

First attack re-opens the gap I'd created at the end of last turn and another breaks out towards Cherbourg.



However, Caen holds out again. Again my logic is the only way I am going to take this is by keeping up the pressure.



I bring across some armour for 1 US so that I can start to exploit the gaps I'm punching in the German lines.



Not that good a turn, both successful attacks were against weak units but I'm pretty sure the Germans are starting to suffer under the constant air attacks. But I am now sure I'm going to hold at least 10 hexes by 1 August (thus escaping that penalty).

I've repeated the idea from my AI game of a corp optimised for fortress busting. So it has all the heavy artillery, lots of engineers and so on. That is still in the UK at the moment, but with that, plus better use of the task forces, I hope to clear out any fortified ports with ease.

Second invasion is fully prepared but I'm going to hold that back. In part the threat is probably forcing Dave to divert more units than he'd need to block any further advance. Second, I like to keep my tactical air concentrated and at the moment its doing a lot of damage in Normandy. Finally, although I'm ok for shipping my priority now is more armour in Normandy to put his defences under extra pressure.

[carlkay58]

Loki, the British and the US Manpower pools can be a real problem by late 44 and 45 if you aren't careful with manpower usage. If you take too many casualties you will see empty pools. Equipment pools are not a worry - whether for air, AFV, vehicles, etc. the Western Allied production is large enough to handle it all but the manpower pools have to be watched.

I have typically found that when the US Army Group HQs come into play in late 44 it is time to disband the British ones and let that manpower enter the British manpower pool for a good safety margin.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: carlkay58

Loki, the British and the US Manpower pools can be a real problem by late 44 and 45 if you aren't careful with manpower usage. If you take too many casualties you will see empty pools. Equipment pools are not a worry - whether for air, AFV, vehicles, etc. the Western Allied production is large enough to handle it all but the manpower pools have to be watched.

I have typically found that when the US Army Group HQs come into play in late 44 it is time to disband the British ones and let that manpower enter the British manpower pool for a good safety margin.

thanks for that, I've been struggling to make much sense of how to use the various Army Group commands as they seem pretty redundant, the allied commanders seem much more a similar bunch than either the Germans or the Soviets so the extra safety net doesn't seem to be that important.

I've been scrapping the British and Free French AA formations and some US ones. In part for the manpower but also as I really do not fear a massed luftwaffe campaign of ground interdiction any longer

[loki100]

Turn 48: 3-9 June 1944

Not shown the VP table for a while. Its getting steadily worse as I'm basically trying to force the Germans back and see if I can generate some pockets in Normandy. Bombing campaign is doing pretty well given the lack of attention.



In response I commit some of 8 Air to the Baltic to hunt the v-weapons, some of Bomber Command hits the Ruhr but the bulk of the airforce is in support of the ground battles. I'm keeping to the same patter of fighter bombers operating on the front lines and level bombers hitting communication links and trying to slow any behind the lines movements.

Results are ok, not even that many planes damaged. Bomber Command had a good trip to the Ruhr as did 8 Air on the Baltic.



I also bring over almost all the Hurricanes and a lot of Spitfires to France. The short range of the rocket armed Hurricanes means you really need to keep them close to the front, also, unlike the early game, I'm not really that worried about German attacks on my airfields.

On the ground, 2 British Army carries on trying to capture Caen.



Better is that 1 US cracks open the German lines protecting Cherbourg and makes some more progress towards Avranches and Vire. I now have some space to move behind the lines and that should make it easier to exploit gains. That is also the 10 hexes I needed to avoid the 1000 point penalty. So I've managed to achieve my first goal.



Some gains also in Italy, have almost reached Taranto.

[jwolf]

Dumb question about Italy: is there much risk of getting cut off along the Gulf of Taranto?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Dumb question about Italy: is there much risk of getting cut off along the Gulf of Taranto?

Not a dumb question at all - I was scared that Dave would manage that and its one reason why I've moved very slowly and basically have 2 full strength infantry divisions in each clear hex and one in each rough hex. So thats an average of 20 defensive cv before fortifications.

His problem is he'd have to commit more than he has in the region to generate the attack strength. I'm plastering the zone with airpower (though less intensive than in Normandy) so he'd take losses/time and he doesn't know what I'm up to with my secondary naval invasions. So if he pulled out of say Rome to counterattack in the south he could end up with a real problem. If he tried to concentrate all he has in the region I doubt he could rebuild his line and I'd end up making significant gains.

Its one way I now think that the threat of invasion can sometimes pin down more troops than actually making an invasion.

Oddly from emails we were both reaching the point of deciding this offensive was either a waster of time (me) or threatening a major encirclement (Dave) and one of us blinks first.

.. for reasons of dramatic tension I'll not say who at this stage

[jwolf]

Thanks for the insight. Interesting how the perception of the same operation is so different on the two sides. Here's to hoping you win the "blink" war. [;)]

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: loki100

People seem to do this to Pelton quite a lot and looking at the AARs one person won big as a result
but the others failed - I think the logic that the British had in reality of being too weak to
take on the Germans in open combat was valid.

[/quote]

The 1 person who won big, was because I was not prepared and did not fully understand the VP system, WA interdiction and how replacements flow or do not flow through 7-9 interdiction hexes.
That same landing was attempted by 3 other players(copy cats) and they all failed or were locked down losing allot of VP's because I held the ports.

The keys to holding WA's on the beaches in France is forts 1 hex inland and strong divisions all along the coast.

Normandy and Brittany are the 2 best landing areas. La Harve is close but because of the river its easy to lock down.

Understanding interdiction and how it works is huge as Germany.

Great AAR as always fun to read.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

ORIGINAL: loki100


People seem to do this to Pelton quite a lot and looking at the AARs one person won big as a result
but the others failed - I think the logic that the British had in reality of being too weak to
take on the Germans in open combat was valid.

The 1 person who won big, was because I was not prepared and did not fully understand the VP system, WA interdiction and how replacements flow or do not flow through 7-9 interdiction hexes.
That same landing was attempted by 3 other players(copy cats) and they all failed or were locked down losing allot of VP's because I held the ports.

The keys to holding WA's on the beaches in France is forts 1 hex inland and strong divisions all along the coast.

Normandy and Brittany are the 2 best landing areas. La Harve is close but because of the river its easy to lock down.

Understanding interdiction and how it works is huge as Germany.

Great AAR as always fun to read.

Aye, that was my impression. Laying aside the wider issue of 'balance' I think WiTW does a great job modelling the need for all invasions to be well prepared and set up to take few risks. The other key thing is it clearly shares the implicit UK rather than US view about the ability of the allies to really take on the German army in 1943. So early invasions of northern Europe in 1943 are a high risk stunt and most likely to fail (and fail badly).

Agree about interdiction, getting your head around that, for both sides, is critical. Its akin to understanding the impact of mass over quality in WiTE in terms of tactical game play.

[loki100]

Turn 49: 10 – 16 June 1944

Air war much as it has been in recent turns. Some of Bomber Command and 8 US Air hitting Germany, bulk of the airforce concentrated on Normandy.

Bomber Command did a lot of damage in the Ruhr (the latest patch really has improved night bombing) and 8 Air went after aircraft factories around Erfurt. From Italy, 15 US Air hit the area around Regensburg.



In Italy, my slow advance finally reaches the outskirts of Taranto.



I really was not sure whether to persist or give up as I was feeling that I was now very stretched out and unable to concentrate on any particular sector.

Caen finally fell. First attack was the usual defeat but at least that saw the bulk of the fortifications destroyed. I decided to gamble on a second attack and forced the Germans out.



This really opens up my scope for movement and allows 2 British to break out.

Elsewhere, elements of 1 US reached Cherbourg but even better the infantry of 1 US almost captured Vire dislocating the entire German western flank. I'm almost out of the Bocage, so next turn its time to let the armour have fun.

[jwolf]

Looks like you'll get control of the whole Cotentin peninsula soon. But then breaking out of there might be difficult. I supppose that's where the second invasion will come into play?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Looks like you'll get control of the whole Cotentin peninsula soon. But then breaking out of there might be difficult. I supppose that's where the second invasion will come into play?

moving beyond the protection of the Bocage will force a change in tactics. In fact I invent the idea of the *armoured mouse* to avoid the risk of a significant defeat.

Second invasion I'm in no hurry. At this stage I can generate levels #5-9 of interdiction as I'm using all my tactical air and I'd undermine that huge advantage if I had to protect a second landing site. We've discussed this in emails and at the moment with an unused invasion I have one army (US 3rd) effectively tieing down 2 of Dave's as they cover the most likely options. Once I land, I suspect he'll only need one of those armies to keep me pinned down and it'll be some time before I can generate the numbers to realistically threaten a third landing (in N Europe ... a third is indeed planned for the Med).

[Peltonx]

Nice job on your over all tactics.

What is the VP score?

[marion61]

I've found that making the axis player fight out in the open in France is where most of the casualties come from. Not really from combat so much. In one game I've caused over 400k casualties in 8 turns, FOW on of course. If you continually lay down interdiction as Jerry retreats, he takes massive casualties each turn. It takes about a month or so of breaking out, but once you do the axis casualties will mount so that by the time he reaches the German frontier, his units will be in horrible shape, and you won't be facing huge CV numbers.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

Nice job on your over all tactics.

What is the VP score?

its strange, I really botched the Italian phase but feel I am very much winning the battle for Normandy, we're a few turns ahead and its a case of adapting to the next round of fighting.

At this stage it was at the lower end of a draw, we're up to T57 (I have T58 but not looked at it yet) and its in the lower end of an axis marginal win. I'm taking too many losses but it'll be interesting to see how it all works out

ORIGINAL: meklore61

I've found that making the axis player fight out in the open in France is where most of the casualties come from. Not really from combat so much. In one game I've caused over 400k casualties in 8 turns, FOW on of course. If you continually lay down interdiction as Jerry retreats, he takes massive casualties each turn. It takes about a month or so of breaking out, but once you do the axis casualties will mount so that by the time he reaches the German frontier, his units will be in horrible shape, and you won't be facing huge CV numbers.

Thats my hope, Dave suffered heavy losses (I suspect both real casualties and disrupted elements) in Normandy. I now need to inflict the same intensity on him in the next phase. If I can do that, and carefully time my second invasion, I think I have a chance of reaching eastern France, western Belgium by late 1944.