OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

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tolsdorff
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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

Post by tolsdorff »

ORIGINAL: mind_messing
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

What if the sceptics are right?

You can re-word that to say "What if 97% of climate change scientists are wrong?" and you'll have a more accurate statement.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1 ... 1/4/048002

Note that the figures for that are derived from analysis of multiple peer-reviewed articles on climate change. It's not an opinion poll.

It's worth taking a meta approach to this topic so as to not get needlessly bogged down in the details.

The 97% figure is pretty solid. Scientific consensus is a thing. If the issue was as close-cut as some want to think, the figure would not be remotely near the high 90's.


this is really a bogus argument.

if 97 % of the top 100 chess players evaluate a position to be drawn, and Magnus Carlsen disagrees, I know where to put the money.

97 % (wherever that number came from) means absolutely nothing.

Nou nou, gaat het wel helemaal lekker met je -- Kenny Sulletje
The broken record - Chris
mind_messing
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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

Post by mind_messing »

ORIGINAL: tolsdorff
ORIGINAL: mind_messing
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

What if the sceptics are right?

You can re-word that to say "What if 97% of climate change scientists are wrong?" and you'll have a more accurate statement.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1 ... 1/4/048002

Note that the figures for that are derived from analysis of multiple peer-reviewed articles on climate change. It's not an opinion poll.

It's worth taking a meta approach to this topic so as to not get needlessly bogged down in the details.

The 97% figure is pretty solid. Scientific consensus is a thing. If the issue was as close-cut as some want to think, the figure would not be remotely near the high 90's.


this is really a bogus argument.

if 97 % of the top 100 chess players evaluate a position to be drawn, and Magnus Carlsen disagrees, I know where to put the money.

97 % (wherever it came from) means absolutely nothing, even if it is true.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_equivalence
tolsdorff
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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

Post by tolsdorff »

ORIGINAL: joliverlay

As an editorial board member of a scientific journal, I would say that peer review is far from perfect. There have been plenty of problems in all fields of science with publication of data that could not be reproduced or was simply wrong. Peer review does not equate with proven. Its the best we have, but a better indicator of scientific truth is the ability to predict future events accurately. Observation (experiment) trumps theory (and peer review).

What I would like to see is a plot of the CO2 concentration in the air (which I'm told we have good data for from ice cores for example) and global temperature, which we think we have good data for. If a model is correct there will be a general correlation over large time frames, not just over some brief time period of interest. And if the model is any good, for temperature, sea levels, etc. it will accurately predict future events in upcoming years.

My understanding is current models do not explain warming in the first half of the century and overestimate warming in the last ten years by a good margin. If that's not correct please link the models. As soon as the models can predict future occurrences with good accuracy, and be validated, they will be more widely accepted.

I've been doing scientific research for more then 30 years. I don't believe the 97% number either. I'd say there are a lot more skeptical scientists than you think or the 3% number. Most of the folks I work with are skeptical of more things than they are sure of. The mark of a good scientist is that they are skeptical. In science nothing is ever exempt for critical discussion. We should encourage the critics, not mock them.


+1

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MakeeLearn
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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

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...

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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

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Various mammal species that existed during the Paleocene and Eocene epochs

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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

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BBfanboy
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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

Post by BBfanboy »

Regardless of which theory you think is correct, the big question is "Can we afford to be wrong and do nothing while we wait for irrefutable evidence?". Such evidence would involve prolonged disaster and with the current population pressure, a series of crop failures would soon have nations battling over food and clean water, and more temperate climates to live in.

On top of this, the projections that permafrost thaw would release billions of tons of methane (a worse greenhouse gas than CO2) and that loss of ice sheets will cause less reflection of heat back into space make the notion of a runaway disaster we cannot recover from plausible. We cannot afford to find out the hard way!

Like paying for insurance "just in case", we should be investing in things that will mitigate temperature rise, even if we are not causing all of it. I do not want my grandchildren to live underground!
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
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LargeSlowTarget
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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

Post by LargeSlowTarget »

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Regardless of which theory you think is correct, the big question is "Can we afford to be wrong and do nothing while we wait for irrefutable evidence?".
...

Exactly! We cannot take any chances. If the GW pessimists are wrong, so much the better. But if the GW sceptics are wrong, we will be in deep sh... er, water. Simple prudence dictates that we act 'just in case' the GW pessimists are right.
Kursk1943
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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

Post by Kursk1943 »

ORIGINAL: LargeSlowTarget
ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Regardless of which theory you think is correct, the big question is "Can we afford to be wrong and do nothing while we wait for irrefutable evidence?".
...

Exactly! We cannot take any chances. If the GW pessimists are wrong, so much the better. But if the GW sceptics are wrong, we will be in deep sh... er, water. Simple prudence dictates that we act 'just in case' the GW pessimists are right.

1+

To cite an old German military maxime I learned on my very first course as an officer cadet:

"Be prepared for the worst and hope for the best!"
tolsdorff
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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

Post by tolsdorff »

ORIGINAL: LargeSlowTarget
ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Regardless of which theory you think is correct, the big question is "Can we afford to be wrong and do nothing while we wait for irrefutable evidence?".
...

Exactly! We cannot take any chances. If the GW pessimists are wrong, so much the better. But if the GW sceptics are wrong, we will be in deep sh... er, water. Simple prudence dictates that we act 'just in case' the GW pessimists are right.

As long as clear and intelligent minds dictate what actions should be taken to combat this alleged effect, I agree. I feel, however, that this is not the case. Global warming is not a science, it is an industry, being run by people whose sole goal it is to make money. These people, through whatever organisation, or in whatever capacity are going to determine the best course of action to combat this alleged effect. Some, but not much, good will come of it.

Amidst all the uncertainty in data, data manipulation and pure speculation, one thing however can be said with 100 % certainty: Earth, and life on it, have suffered some major disasters, far greater than we are capable of inflicting at the moment and life rebounded every time.
There is apparently a self healing mechanism of some kind which brings the atmosphere back to a certain standard.
I have this feeling, that the combat against global warming will destroy this mechanism. That would be typical of the human way of things.

Meanwhile, the one thing that actually is going to be detrimental to earth is overpopulation. However, not much can be done against it apparently, due to religious and other egocentric reasons. Apparently a lot of humans feel entitled to having children.?! Our atmospheric pollution, and basically all other problems earth and the animals on it are facing, are just all side effects of this biological software bug: the need and urge to procreate. It is a much more serious issue than global warming.
Nou nou, gaat het wel helemaal lekker met je -- Kenny Sulletje
The broken record - Chris
mind_messing
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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

Post by mind_messing »

Global warming is not a science, it is an industry, being run by people whose sole goal it is to make money.

Like NASA.

In it for the global warming money, right?

https://climate.nasa.gov/

/s
tolsdorff
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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

Post by tolsdorff »

ORIGINAL: mind_messing
Global warming is not a science, it is an industry, being run by people whose sole goal it is to make money.

Like NASA.

In it for the global warming money, right?

https://climate.nasa.gov/

/s

NASA relies on federal funding, so the case can very well be argued actually. launching/operating (or whatever it is they do with it) a climate satellite generates money for them.

Nou nou, gaat het wel helemaal lekker met je -- Kenny Sulletje
The broken record - Chris
mind_messing
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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

Post by mind_messing »

ORIGINAL: tolsdorff

ORIGINAL: mind_messing
Global warming is not a science, it is an industry, being run by people whose sole goal it is to make money.

Like NASA.

In it for the global warming money, right?

https://climate.nasa.gov/

/s

NASA relies on federal funding, so the case can very well be argued actually. launching/operating (or whatever it is they do with it) a climate satellite generates money for them.


Not quite sure that's how the dynamic works, but it's a real shame that taxes are going in to all that science that's finding that humans are having an impact on climate change. They should just use that money to come up with the conclusions we agree with, right?

/s
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MakeeLearn
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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

Post by MakeeLearn »

Here's What Humanity Must Do Immediately to Prevent Catastrophic Climate Change, According to the New U.N. Report

Reduce carbon emissions by 45%
Scrub carbon dioxide from the air
Use 85% renewable energy and stop using coal entirely
Plant new forests equal to the size of Canada
http://time.com/5418577/what-humanity-d ... te-change/

None of these address the fact of our infrastructure influences .


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
https://www.ipcc.ch/








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MakeeLearn
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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

Post by MakeeLearn »

Large-scale conversion to solar energy could affect Earth’s climate

"But even sustainable energy technologies may have an effect on global climate, according to a study published yesterday in Nature Climate Change."

https://www.conservationmagazine.org/20 ... s-climate/






danlongman
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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

Post by danlongman »

ORIGINAL: tolsdorff

ORIGINAL: LargeSlowTarget
ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Regardless of which theory you think is correct, the big question is "Can we afford to be wrong and do nothing while we wait for irrefutable evidence?".
...

Exactly! We cannot take any chances. If the GW pessimists are wrong, so much the better. But if the GW sceptics are wrong, we will be in deep sh... er, water. Simple prudence dictates that we act 'just in case' the GW pessimists are right.

As long as clear and intelligent minds dictate what actions should be taken to combat this alleged effect, I agree. I feel, however, that this is not the case. Global warming is not a science, it is an industry, being run by people whose sole goal it is to make money. These people, through whatever organisation, or in whatever capacity are going to determine the best course of action to combat this alleged effect. Some, but not much, good will come of it.

Amidst all the uncertainty in data, data manipulation and pure speculation, one thing however can be said with 100 % certainty: Earth, and life on it, have suffered some major disasters, far greater than we are capable of inflicting at the moment and life rebounded every time.
There is apparently a self healing mechanism of some kind which brings the atmosphere back to a certain standard.
I have this feeling, that the combat against global warming will destroy this mechanism. That would be typical of the human way of things.

Meanwhile, the one thing that actually is going to be detrimental to earth is overpopulation. However, not much can be done against it apparently, due to religious and other egocentric reasons. Apparently a lot of humans feel entitled to having children.?! Our atmospheric pollution, and basically all other problems earth and the animals on it are facing, are just all side effects of this biological software bug: the need and urge to procreate. It is a much more serious issue than global warming.

Climate change is science - a topic with which you appear
to have a lot of opinion and attitude but no information.
You repeat platitudes that are based in fantasy pronouncements
made by ignorant people who do not know better. These
pronouncements can be referred to as the "magic" theory of
climate change.

Magic will save us. Meanwhile science and history show us
that many human societies collapsed under the stress of very
small climate changes. If there is a self healing magic the planet
possesses we know it takes thousands to millions of years and
we do NOT know if it works while an unsupervised experiment on
the effect of unrestricted release of megatons of GHG's into
the atmosphere is on-going.

Literally millions of species have gone extinct (dinosaurs anybody)
due to changes in the environment. They did NOT bounce back.
Genetics tell us that recently in human history - during the
last ice age - the total population of humans may have been
reduced to as few as 10K individuals. We were perilously
close to extinction.

You make a number ridiculous claims based presumably on your
internet education and feckless opinion. I cannot even begin
to tell you where you are wrong. It does go well with your
smug and condescending tone however. I, for one, would really
like to see a scientific paper describing this magic "rebound"
from extinction which will save us from catastrophe. Your
statement "...life rebounded every time." Is correct. Life
itself clung in the balance but millions of species simply
went extinct.
"Patriotism: Your conviction that this country is superior to all other countries because you were born in it." - George Bernard Shaw
tolsdorff
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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

Post by tolsdorff »

I find the disrespect and outright hostility of the global warming crowd shocking. There are parallels in history.
Nou nou, gaat het wel helemaal lekker met je -- Kenny Sulletje
The broken record - Chris
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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

Post by BBfanboy »

ORIGINAL: tolsdorff

I find the disrespect and outright hostility of the global warming crowd shocking. There are parallels in history.
Short-term (<50 year) turnaround of a climate effect? Examples?
Sure, there was global cooling for three years after Krakatoa blew up and filled the atmosphere with fine ash. But that was a single event that ended in hours, not the continuous spewing of pollutants everywhere that we have managed to set up! We need to fix the problem to the extent we can within a few years, not wait for some cycle to come around 200 years from now.
I am not denying that there are natural climate influencers out there, but that does not let us off the hook for the things we can influence ourselves to prolong our species just a bit longer. I will gladly sacrifice some of my income to fund changes that improve the chances my grandchildren will have a bearable environment - and no wars over the best parts of it!
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
danlongman
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RE: OT; A battle field slips beneath the waves

Post by danlongman »

ORIGINAL: tolsdorff

I find the disrespect and outright hostility of the global warming crowd shocking. There are parallels in history.


I am sorry about the lack of respect given to your opinions.
It results from the fact that what you are stating as truth
is in fact disinformation from someone whom it appears cannot
separate their opinions from fantasy.

Other than the attitude which can be seen as outraged and
smarmy clutching at pearls - "Well! <gasp> I never!" - there
are some outright falsehoods. The avowed purpose of the contrarians
- stated publicly - is to spread Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt.
The effect of this is to stymie government and public action
to make the needed alterations in the status quo. Everything
Americans do not like, dishonesty, socialism, taxes, government
regulations are all rolled into the FUD.

Here is a list of 197 of the science deniers talking points which
are false or dubious at best. Many of these canards have been
proven wrong for decades but they sound smart and are easy to
remember. My personal experience with climate study and observation
goes back to the mid '70's.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

The arrogant arguments of the science deniers resemble nothing
more than the silly arguments of the Young Earth Creationists.
This is a global and existential problem. I would be so happy to
be proven wrong. Scientists are usually people who are able to
change their minds when presented with credible evidence. Follow
the money. The real money not the money that Alex Jones talks about.
Happy reading.
Cheers
"Patriotism: Your conviction that this country is superior to all other countries because you were born in it." - George Bernard Shaw
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