1st PvP+1st AAR, Shalkai (Axis) vs GamerDad (Soviet), v1.12.0x

[Shalkai]

Turn 8 part D:

My attention shifts south; let’s try to finish off Odessa. Two large bombing attacks to disrupt, then ground assaults. Odessa starts with a defense CV of 20, and fort level 3.18. First wave is mostly Rumanians; 5.7:1 odds knock fort level down to 1.68, and DCV to 12. A second assault, again all but one Rumanian, sweeps to the city center and forces a surrender. Axis casualties total less than 1500.



I think that was three turns and seven major battles to take a well-fortified city that started at Fort4. That seems pretty reasonable to me; historically the siege took over two months, but it didn’t have two whole corps of well-supported German infantry backed with siege guns there right from the start, either. I did a quick check; Soviet losses are already 74k in my turn, and I haven’t even visited the Rzhev pocket yet.

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: Shalkai
The point of the salient, Tikhvin, is 25 hexes from rail head so I’ve just barely managed to keep everyone in normal supply.

In Halder's diaries he kept on going on about Tikhvin in numerous entries. Yes I guess important, but so are many places. Never understood why historically this was placed as being so important?

[Shalkai]

Turn 8 part E:

Next step is to untangle the mess of two Rumanian and one German army around Odessa. 11th Army (Ger+Rum) is tasked with breaking into the Crimea. 4th Rum Army will be on their left, heading to Zapo. 3rd Rum Army will go to Dnepo, with an independent corp of Germans assigned to OKH to help bust across river lines. It’ll take me two turns at least to sort them all out, but I’ll have the time as railheads are brought forward. Railhead is 90 miles west of Odessa at the moment - I don’t even wanna know how far it is from Zapo. I space the army headquarters out first to remind me which color goes where, then start dancing divisions around. Small Soviet plane forces do a number of interdiction attacks, usually losing a couple of planes each try. They do actually bleed 1 MP off one Rumanian division.

I do most of the moves, but get distracted by looking at possible Dnepr bridgeheads. Hex 89,89 might work. However, it is bedtime, so enough for now.

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: Shalkai
I think that was three turns and seven major battles to take a well-fortified city that started at Fort4. That seems pretty reasonable to me; historically the siege took over two months, but it didn’t have two whole corps of well-supported German infantry backed with siege guns there right from the start, either. I did a quick check; Soviet losses are already 74k in my turn, and I haven’t even visited the Rzhev pocket yet.

Again in Halder's diaries there were numerous pleas from the German military to send in German troops to finish the job quickly. Hitler refused for political reasons - so perhaps if there was some simulation of it tt there should be some political cost (easier Rumanian surrender? fewer Rumanian replacements) for letting the Germans take over.

Also the Soviet Union had a very active defence of Odessa while there - including mounting nearby amphibious operations and counter attacks. So it might be the game is still exagerating the scale of what could be done just with the forces your opponent used?

[Shalkai]

The next day I ponder a few things while at work. First, I need to start a thread in the bug section on the Matrix forums. The ‘supply line follows least MP path’ rule is at best causing some problems and quirky results. Specifically, some hexes around Krivoi Rog are showing as isolated, yet if the supply path was taken to the other railhead available, they’d be several hexes under the limit. I’m going to get a couple screenshots tonight or tomorrow night to show this. I think the supply line rule would work better if it was ‘supply line follows least (MP + distance in hexes) path’. It is really annoying having one hex be at 21 distance from rail, while the adjacent hex says it is 27 hexes.

I’ll have to double-check, but I think there is actually a German unit that was IN supply last turn, but is now ISOLATED by a longer MP path this turn. That is pretty clearly a bug. [This was actually the case, and I reported it in the Matrix support forum. No official notice as of 1/1/2020. O 12.03 patch, where ARE youuuu?]

This weird supply pathing isn’t a total deal breaker, because it is usually resolved in a turn or two after FBDs move the rail heads farther forward. The current Krivoi Rog situation, for example, will be fixed next turn. Rail repair crossed the Dniestr river this turn, so the stupid supply algorithm won’t decide a long, meandering path to Vinnitsa is the only possible one to use, which means it isn’t a valid path once it is 26 hexes or over. To sum it up, if you’re going to make distance the primary factor in determining isolation to be hexes from rail, then you should base the supply path algorithm primarily on hexes, not MP cost. Make it apples and apples.

Grinch, grumble, gripe. OK, I feel better now.

The other thing I mulled over is whether or not to try and make a small bridgehead across the Dnepr this turn. To be truly useful, the bridgehead needs to include a rail bridge over the river. There are three rail bridges available between Kiev and Dnepro. All three have strong stacks holding the east side of the bridge. However, the initial hex I take doesn’t have to be one of those bridges. I already mentioned that 89,89 looks weak enough to take.

Making a one-hex bridgehead now might cause GamerDad to pull back the whole Dnepr defensive line before I have a chance to make a salient or a pocket. I expect he would retreat given how badly his Leningrad defenses just got flanked.

With that said, waiting a turn and then making a bigger crossing won’t be a huge improvement. Crossing will be tougher since he’ll have a few more units and higher fort levels. Even if I have two or three PzK to exploit, a lot of their fuel will be used up crossing the river the same turn bridgehead is made. Panzer maximum penetration distance would be perhaps 12 hexes.

A third option is to attack across the river this turn but not move any unit across to the east side. This would have the benefit of zeroing out fort levels, but not look as threatening. Causing a retreat from 89,89 would probably not cause a complete Soviet withdrawal to the East Delaying that withdrawal for a turn means a turn less digging in on his next defensive line, probably from Kharkov to Poltava. I’ll keep pondering to try and decide which tactic brings the most benefits.

It’s an interesting ‘if:then’ matrix of tactical choices.

This is not a terribly critical decision. Either way I am using the preferred German tactic of going around, not through, strong defensive points or lines. This is just a choice between the relative benefits of when I cross more than anything else. Where is decided by weak points in the defense, whatever turn is chosen.

1SS Mot Brg drives forward to probe the Kremenchug defenses. There are two weak RifleDiv and a Fort there. I really don’t have enough infantry nearby to assault either here or at 89,89. I’ll probably choose not to try and force the river anywhere this turn. Still more to be done in all Army Group areas.

I finish moving units forward from Odessa, then skip up to Kiev and move units closer. The Soviet line is pulled back to the Desna river north of Kiev, which clears a path for 46 PzK to move back north, passing just west of Chernigov. Supply in that sector isn’t great, but it will get them closer to the rest of the 2nd Panzer Group, and they will be in better terrain for later advances. Attention then shifts to AGC and clearing the pocket west of Rzhev. That goes fine, and Soviet losses are approaching 200k so far this turn. The 25 hex leash is bad by Rzhev, so I can’t push my panzers forward to isolate the city this turn.

Meanwhile, 20 Mot division flanks some of the defenders in the Valdai hills. I can’t pocket them, but just going this far means those two rifle divisions are pinned on four sides, and their only withdrawal path takes them northeast around the lake and it will be two full turns before they can get to Vyshny or Torzhok and be of any use once more. They can’t go straight east and help fill in that very skimpy line trying to protect Torzhok.

[Shalkai]

And now, a break for our sponsors...LOL

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

In Halder's diaries he kept on going on about Tikhvin in numerous entries. Yes I guess important, but so are many places. Never understood why historically this was placed as being so important?

Historically, with the Germans on the west side of the Volkhov river, Tikhvin was the last rail line open to Lake Ladoga. In game terms, if the Germans have Tikhvin, then the port on the east side of Ladoga is suddenly 100+ miles and a couple rivers (25+ MP) from rail. Soviets would have had to replace 10 trains with 10,000 trucks, with basically no supply for Leningrad during mud. Deaths in Leningrad from starvation would have doubled or tripled over their already horrific historical totals. I agree with Halder and the OKH planners that Tikhvin was a critical priority target.

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

Again in Halder's diaries there were numerous pleas from the German military to send in German troops to finish the job quickly. Hitler refused for political reasons - so perhaps if there was some simulation of it tt there should be some political cost (easier Rumanian surrender? fewer Rumanian replacements) for letting the Germans take over.

Also the Soviet Union had a very active defence of Odessa while there - including mounting nearby amphibious operations and counter attacks. So it might be the game is still exagerating the scale of what could be done just with the forces your opponent used?

Good points there - the Rumanian attacks were hesitant and they let many weeks go by with no attacks at all, which encouraged the Soviets to counterattack and move in reinforcements. If GamerDad had dropped in a third rifle division to replace that fort.region it probably would have cost me at least one more turn.

I may try to do something similar to the historical siege in my next game as the Soviets, and use those Fort3 outlying defenses to bleed the Axis. Your idea of a cost for the Germans to step in is a good one. Since it's political, perhaps 1 AP cost for any attack on Odessa that includes German divisions? Any tweak that costs the Germans or Rumanians something would be nice, as there's only benefits for a German-led assault on Odessa right now.

[Shalkai]

Turn 8 part G:

AGC Infantry advances, generally getting another 30-40 miles east. I still have RailCap left, so AGC HQ is moved from Vilnius to Polotsk. AGN HQ is already in Pskov less than 100 miles from the front, so they’re fine. I don’t have enough trains left to move AGS HQ up to Vinnitsa so they just drive forward.

Final Rzhev area, with red X marking hexes 26+ hexes from my railhead (according to the silly supply pathing, anyway). I've gone as far as I possibly can.

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: Shalkai
I still have RailCap left, so AGC HQ is moved from Vilnius to Polotsk. AGN HQ is already in Pskov less than 100 miles from the front, so they’re fine. I don’t have enough trains left to move AGS HQ up to Vinnitsa so they just drive forward.

Did you use, or consider, assigning down the SUs to a next level unlocked HQ first? It costs zero points but the SUs will be back in the army group if unlocked the next turn anyway. And this drastically reduces the rail costs for HQs.

[Shalkai]

Another strike force assembles in the Smolensk area to refit and stock up supplies; it is about the same size as the AGS force I am assembling in the south - three PzK and one InfK. Next turn railheads should be past some rough terrain and I should be able to make another lunge closer to Moscow.

Here is the southern half of the AGC sector. My railhead and FBD can be seen on the far left.

[Shalkai]

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

ORIGINAL: Shalkai
I still have RailCap left, so AGC HQ is moved from Vilnius to Polotsk. AGN HQ is already in Pskov less than 100 miles from the front, so they’re fine. I don’t have enough trains left to move AGS HQ up to Vinnitsa so they just drive forward.

Did you use, or consider, assigning down the SUs to a next level unlocked HQ first? It costs zero points but the SUs will be back in the army group if unlocked the next turn anyway. And this drastically reduces the rail costs for HQs.

I never considered that at all - great tip! That is now added to my turn sequence notes. I could easily have done that with most/all of the SUs and saved me some trucks and trains. Most of my corps are locked at this point, but the infantry armies and all army groups are still unlocked.

Turn 8 part H:

One thing I noticed the previous evening is that Soviet Interdiction is turned on. It isn’t very effective - I think only one unit lost one MP - and my fighters have been causing serious casualties among his attack planes with virtually no German losses so I’m quite content to let him fritter away planes this way. I’ll try to remember and call out the losses of both sides from Soviet interdiction attacks at the end of the turn. I’m betting it’ll be 300 ground troops against 30 Russian planes or something close to that. I’ll trade a rifle squad for a plane and its crew any day.

I’ve decided my AGS plan should be to do a spoiling attack on the city of Kiev using infantry, but no attacks across the Dnepr this turn. I’ll just have 6th Army infantry divisions move up to the west bank of the river, spread out to disguise my intended attack points, and do the actual crossing in turn 9. This means AGS panzers won’t do much; just drive forward a few hexes and otherwise rest. That also means I can use my AP for HQBU. 41 PzK in AGN and 47 PzK in AGC are given HQBU orders, and any of their divisions under 90% strength are ordered to refit.

Once evening and gameplay time arrives, I continue the advance. The idea of a demonstration attack on Kiev is cancelled. It has three good RD dug in to Fort3.08 and is close terrain. Defensive CV is about 120. I’d be hard pressed to get much more than 1:1 odds. Cherkassy looks more promising - two TD and a Mot, but still Fort2.96 and DCV of 63. Naaaah - I’ll save my troops for next turn.

End turn pic in North Ukraine:

[Shalkai]

Axis Turn 8 part J:

What I do instead is stage all the AGS panzers into the concealment of woods just west of the Cherkassy-Kremenchug stretch of the Dnepr. The circled area contains 3 Panzer and 1 Infantry Corps, all in trees so less likely to be seen by any Soviet recon flights. After I do some air attacks all airbases will then be moved out of the area so they won’t attract any auto recon to this neighborhood.





There are limits on sneakiness in this game. Soviet recon flights will probably spot a couple of these units, but without the massive recon resources of the Germans, Red pilots aren’t likely to spot even half of them, or be able to tell that most are panzers. You do what you can.

In a similar vein, assorted Slovak and Hun units are stationed behind the front line west of Kiev, trying to look like a Panzer Corps or two ready to outflank those nasty defenses. Final movements also done in AGC and AGN.

That should do it for movement. Let’s check the outcomes of Soviet Interdiction attacks this turn…
16 Red Air Force interdictions - wow - only 8 Wehrmacht soldiers wounded, and none KIA. There were elements disrupted in most attacks but only one bombing caused any actual ground casualties. Soviet air losses were 3 ftr and 23 bmr, while Axis lost...zero fighters. Well. That’s waaaay better than I expected. To be honest, it sounds a bit too one-sided when compared to the memoirs I’ve read from Germans who served on the Eastern Front. Still, this is early days, less than two months after the surprise invasions. Red pilots will get better.

Now that I’ve seen that, I’ll check Luftwaffe units and do some judicious airfield or ground attacks with high-readiness geschwaders.
1 FlK in AGN gets a pass - fighters and stukas there are already over 25% flown miles and 50% fatigue. Ju52s do fly some fuel to the motorized divisions in Volkhov and Tikhvin (Note to new players - motorized need half the fuel compared to panzers, so air supply missions give more MP next turn to motorized or panzergrenadier units)
8 FlK in AGC near VeliLuki is mostly unused. No airfields in reach of Stukas, so I do six ground attacks and cause decent casualties. Attacks stop before units are weary - mostly in the 10-15% flown range.
2 FlK near Smolensk is within stuka range of Soviet airfields north of Kaluga. Five major attacks destroy over a hundred planes, mostly MiGs and SB-2 Rcn models. German losses are less than ten planes. Again, I stop after units have used about 15% miles flown.

A glance at the clock says it’s after midnight. Dern! OK, will finish tomorrow evening...

[Shalkai]

Turn 8 epilogue:

We left off giving the air forces some exercise. AGS has most of Luftflotte 4, along with the Slovak and Hungarian contingents, in the Kiev area. Soviet airbases are within range. I’ll first pick on choice airfield targets to reduce enemy fighters, then use the allied bombers for ground attacks on Red Army divisions sitting in open terrain. One attack takes heavy Luftwaffe bomber losses - there were 45 Bf109 fighters that made it to the battle but I guess they were out of position (failed a leadership check?). This happens a second time, so overall I lose over 20 bombers, but Soviet losses are near 200 destroyed. Rumanian bombers fly a few bombing runs, and that should do it for combat. Only one AGS panzer is under 50% fuel, so the transport staffeln drop some jerry cans for them.

The two AGC FBDs can both only convert 3 rail hexes, despite having plenty of RRV left and 3 MP to do a fourth hex. Another minor bug I think; rules clearly state that rail conversions on Russian gauge can be done at up to 4 hexes. Heck, two other FBDs did just that this turn.

It takes about 20 minutes to tidy things (check DtHQ, move airbases to better spots, set refit status on a few units, doublecheck garrisons and FBDs, etc.). A couple bomber units are ready to come back from Reserve, as noted at the beginning of the turn. St/II/III/KG1 have 84 bombers (100%) and good exp. Also III/StG1 is ready for action.
The rest of StG1 is in AGN, so the refitted unit transfers in. Next turn one of the tired Stukas currently there can head to refit since they are down to 50% plane strength right now.

KG1 doesn’t have any Gruppen at the front right now. I check who needs level bombers. I end up putting them in 2 FlK (near Smolensk) who will be losing some tac bombers in the next few turns. AGN air is fine, though I do notice St/KG3 in reserve is back to full ToE so it gets sent back to action as well. Turn saved and sent off to GamerDad.

13 hexes to Moscow, 6 to Osinovets (or 4 to Sviritsa).

Total losses at end of Axis Turn 8: Axis 108812 men, 1291 gun, 842 afv, 86 spac. Soviet 1699105 men, 24416 gun, 9740 afv, 3018 spac
Net loss of about 500 vehicles this turn: 2500 lost, 2000 captured.
Air losses: Axis 119 (this turn), 510 Total. Soviet 621 (this turn), 7616 Total. Bomber losses were heavier this week - 20 Ju87, 22 Ju88, 7 He and Do. Important Soviet type losses: 55 MiG-3, 26 Yak, 28 LaGG, 34 SB-2 Rcn, 13 IL-2. I’m definitely shooting down more recon than are being produced.
Destroyed units: 38 this turn; 1 ArmyHQ, 2 AirBase, 3 TankDiv, 16 RifleDiv, 3 Fort, 1 AT Brigade, and 1 SecRgt were the on-map losses.
OOB shows Germany still at 3.39M manpower, Soviet is down a tick at 3.79M

No notable unforced errors this turn that I can recall. Not much in the way of risks at the moment, either. Leningrad is isolated (though still has limited supply over the lake for another turn or two), with 750 planes and probably 500k ground troops trapped. The entire front is blown open north of Moscow. I only see 16 units, perhaps 125k troops, between Rzhev and Lake Ladoga, roughly a 350 mile stretch. The strong lines build along the Luga river up north, and the Dnepr around Kiev, means the cupboard is very bare around Moscow.

One risk is my Leningrad FBD is pushing very near the front line to get to Novgorod. I could have gone east instead of northeast from Pskov, but the end result would be a two-hex longer path to reach Novgorod. I have to push the Leningrad defenders two hexes north over the next two turns to make unimpeded rail repairs. I’m pretty sure that will not be a problem.

T9 to-do: lower ToeM on units soon to withdraw. Push down more SU and lock HQs.

I took a look at my artillery losses to see how much of a drain it has been so far on armaments, and it isn’t bad. German guns and howitzer losses (excluding mortars) are less than 500 right now. Replacement gun tubes cost around 15 arma points on average, or around the cost of two rifle squads. GamerDad’s withdrawals have really minimized my casualties to this point. Some judicious lowering of SU ToeM levels should help build up a bit of surplus equipment to cushion me through the climactic early fall battles, and then the dreaded blizzard.

Progress towards my goals and strategic plans seems to be going fine. Leningrad should be completely isolated either next turn or the one after that. Getting a total isolation (not just cutting off rail) on Leningrad by Turn 10 is a major accomplishment for the Axis. Reducing and starving the pocket will take a number of turns, but I should be able to free up 41st and 56th PanzerKorps and move them south somewhere between turn 12 and 15. My chance of being able to encircle Moscow before the mud turns is now probably 75% or higher.

Even an outright capture of Moscow won’t be enough to secure a decisive win in 1941. We’re playing a 290 VP game, so an automatic Axis win can’t happen until late in Summer ‘42 after taking multiple VP cities on the Volga. There’s still a lot of game left to play, and a win of any type is not guaranteed no matter how well things have gone in the first eight turns. I may be pleased with progress to this point but my experience dealing with Blizzard and conquering all the way to the Volga is very limited; just a couple games vs. AI and one against myself.

The next couple of turns will see some very important action in Ukraine. How quickly and effectively I can cross the Dnepr and outflank the heavy Kiev defenses will determine how far east I can get in the ‘41 campaign season. I’d like to take Voronezh and Rostov but they won’t be in reach until the snow turns.

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: Shalkai

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

ORIGINAL: Shalkai
I still have RailCap left, so AGC HQ is moved from Vilnius to Polotsk. AGN HQ is already in Pskov less than 100 miles from the front, so they’re fine. I don’t have enough trains left to move AGS HQ up to Vinnitsa so they just drive forward.

Did you use, or consider, assigning down the SUs to a next level unlocked HQ first? It costs zero points but the SUs will be back in the army group if unlocked the next turn anyway. And this drastically reduces the rail costs for HQs.

I never considered that at all - great tip! That is now added to my turn sequence notes. I could easily have done that with most/all of the SUs and saved me some trucks and trains. Most of my corps are locked at this point, but the infantry armies and all army groups are still unlocked.

If you want to be really micro prioritise the army HQs that are on a railine or near to one. In my case I leave the RHG HQs empty of on map units except for contruction to repair the rail line. As the RHGs are always on the rail line at the rail head, I know assigning SUs to them is the same (logistically) as an army group on rails. So my RHGs, as well as being rail repair HQs, also double up as a cache for all the army group SUs when I want to move their HQs.

[Shalkai]

Axis Turn 9 part A

First glance finds Leningrad still isolated, though still in partial supply thanks to Lake Ladoga ports. Line mostly unchanged from Leningrad area down to Vyazma, but it looks like the Soviets have withdrawn again, and are now behind the Desna river between Vyazma-Bryansk-Chernigov. Line from there south is along the Dnepr, and very strongly held between Kiev and Cherkassy. What I can see so far shows the line is weaker south of Cherkassy. No partisans and no rail cuts this turn. Axis attrition losses were 13k, once again low since so few units are adjacent to the enemy.

Battle reports show about 60 Soviet recon flights. Red Air Force has recon escort turned on, which led to the loss of four German fighters. It looks like some of the recon flights were manual and he was keeping an eye on my mobile units. There was no ground combat during Soviet turn, and only a few other air battles - six Axis interdictions in the Moscow area, and two ineffectual Soviet ground attacks near Volkhov.

Event log notes the arrival of two German divisions (one static infantry, and one security) and about a dozen SUs, mostly Flak. Industry and replacement details show no issues.

Vehicle pool 191k, with 64k used. Rail capacity is 179k on-hand - 6k reserved for units, so 173k ready for supplies, of which 164k was used. No changes needed in Rail allotments.

Operational goals for the turn should be unchanged unless my air recon finds some massive reserve army approaching the front - which I doubt the Soviets can collect at this point. AGN will tighten the screws on Leningrad, though I don’t think I can take the Sviritsa port on Lake Ladoga this turn. AGC will advance as supply allows and take whatever it can get. AGS will make a Dnepr crossing attempt around Kremenchug, while Romanians advance further and get reorganized for pushes on Crimea and the Donbass.

Commander reports are reviewed. German ground units are fine - only one PzDiv and one ID are under 85% Toe strength. Morale is still good with only three InfDiv under 75 morale. Axis Minors are all doing fine, ground-wise.

Air Group checks show some tired units, mostly in I Fliegerkorps near Leningrad. Four German fighter units have less than 30 planes ready, two of those with high damaged counts.

Looking in National Reserve, I have fighter units I.JG54, I.JG52, St.JG27, III.JG51, and II.ZG 26 rested enough to return to combat.
Rested bombers are St.KG54, St.KG27 and St.StG77. This gives me an idea of how many units I ought to swap out.

Finn air is fine; one Italian recon is sent to reserve. Two Rumanian fighters and two bombers are sent to Reserve and will be replaced by rested units at the end of my turn. Hungarian and Slovakian squadrons are GTG. With the minors checked, I go back to German air.

Five bomber and one Stuka group are sent to reserve to rest and recover. There are three beatup Bf109 units near Leningrad, but I can’t rest them without getting replacements here. Some checking finds two fighter units I can air transfer up from AGC so I do. That works; AGC won’t be doing a whole lot of air battles this turn, and I’ll spread the other fighter units returning from reserve among AGN and AGC later.

Two units need rail forward. Both are sent towards AGC, as they are going to be occupying several cities in the next couple turns.

That takes care of the prep work, so orders for Recon flights are sent out. They spot about ten new arrivals east of my salient to cut off Leningrad, and more new arrivals between the Valdai hills and Torzhok. A reserve defense line is getting dug in about 60 miles west of Moscow; the clear hexes I can see are already Fort3 but it is only about 8 hexes long at this point. South of Moscow, all the way to the Black Sea, the Soviet line is very linear with very few units behind the line to stop panzer exploitations. Now I just have to get across the Dnepr and Desna rivers to exploit. :p

It’s pretty late, but I get started on the ground unit moves and work on the easy stuff on the north and south edges of the map. One Finn brigade makes it to 90,11 at the NoAttack line, adjacent to Sviritsa. I may be able to get a panzer unit up from the south and attack the fort zone there. If I can, then Leningrad will be fully isolated. 3rd Panzer Group may be able to pocket about 5 divisions in the Valdai Hills. Supply reach will prevent me from doing much south of the Y=40 row, basically Rzhev or south.

Here's how far the Finnish forces get this turn.

[Shalkai]

Axis Turn 9 part B

Play continues my next free evening. In the north, I *almost* cut off Leningrad, but not quite. I was one hex short of having the Finns and AGN meet. On the bright side, Leningrad isn’t going to get much - Osinovets is 87MP from railhead (the nearest Soviet rail hex they can use is 4 hexes east of Tikhvin). If I hadn’t moved the Finns first I could have achieved an actual cutoff, so error on my part but an honest one.

On the plus side, the eight or ten new Red Army divisions railed north to try and save things are probably too little, too late. I also managed to pocket six divisions in the Valdai Hills, and shatter several other units. North of Moscow is still going to be very underpopulated the next few turns. If I count the pocketed units as lost, defenses north of Moscow have only a small net gain in strength. I can see perhaps 24 combat units, but six of those are routed, and nothing on the front line has a base CV of more than 2 - most of them are only CV 1. Leningrad isn’t going to be able to break out and rescue itself, either. I pushed several defenders back from the Luga and Volkhov rivers. Only one rifle division is still on the west bank of the Volkhov.

[Shalkai]

Axis Turn 9 part C:

Here's the pocket made by 16th Army and 39th PzK. 57PzK can be seen about five hexes west of Rzhev where it is doing an HQBU this turn. Rail repair is marked on the western edges of this pic - repair will reach Novgorod in two turns, and Velikie Luki in one.

[Shalkai]

Turn 9 part E:

Supply reach means there isn’t much I can do along the Rzhev/Vyazma/Bryansk line other than move up slightly and claim territory. Infantry does that, moving up another 20-40 miles in most areas, while panzers rest farther back in areas not too far from rail. You can see most of Guderian's 2nd PzG refitting south of Smolensk, and with pretty good MP numbers. Once supply catches up a bit more, they will be ready to blitz. Front-line infantry is 21-23 hexes away from railhead this turn.

[Shalkai]

Turn 9 part F:

The next evening, I start by noting down pre-isolation supply info for Leningrad and Moscow, so I can see how much their supply levels drop over the coming turns.
Leningrad: supply 35144, fuel 135279; pop 40, oil 5000, resource 2450.
Leningrad factories: Arm 13, Vehicle 5, Port 26, Rail 20, Manpower 40, HvInd 5, KV-1 30, T-50 7.
Moscow: supply 13095, fuel 257729; pop 50, oil 5000, resource 4410.
Moscow fact: Arm 9, Vehicle 30, Rail 32, ManP 50, HvInd 9, MiG-3 36+36, U-2VS 11, T-40 18, IL-4 5, Pe-2R 3, Pe-3 5, *Yak-7 9, *IL-10 1.
Kharkov: supply 6860, fuel 915, pop 20, resource 1960 (I might as well add this one too for tracking purposes).
Kharkov factories: Arm 15, Vehicle 10, Rail 9, Manpower 20, HvInd 4, T-34 58, Su-2 12.
Some clicking around other cities shows something interesting - GamerDad isn’t railing all factories off to the Urals, like I try to do. Ryazan has 5 damaged Armaments and 7 damaged Heavy Industry, for example. That’s within my possible reach in 1941; he might have to evac those again.

Time to get back to work. Here is a shot of AGS turn start, from Kiev to Dnepro. I’ve marked the Axis railhead and the site I have chosen for river crossing attempt near Kremenchug. I would have preferred to cross at Cherkassy, but the defenses around there are almost three times as strong. Better to do my Axis thang of going around, not through. Kremenchug is 19 hexes from my railhead which is a bit far. A successful crossing should provoke a massive Soviet withdrawal to the Kharkov-Kursk-Orel line. If he doesn’t pull back, I have the option to try a massive AGS/AGC double envelopment similar to the historical Kiev pocket.

[Shalkai]

Turn 9 part G:

I do some airbase moves and air transfers to get the Luftwaffe bases west of Cherkassy and within 10-12 hexes of Kremenchug, then do strong double ground attacks on all three hexes. This will also be conveniently within range for possible attacks on Soviet airfields if I have a chance later on. Doing the air transfers and moves of empty airbases has another benefit - a Soviet interdiction attempt causes no losses or disruptions but suffers 7 of 22 planes shot down. Lets see if i can provoke some more of these [evil grin]. I don’t, but I do fly some more recon missions to distract the Soviets, plus I also want to make as good a count as I can on the number of divisions/brigades are on the Dnepr line right now.

Chernigov -> N of Kiev: 17
Kiev -> N of Cherkassy: 31
Cherkassy-> N of Kremenchug: 17
Kremenchug -> N of Dnepropetrovsk: 15
Dnepropetrovsk -> Black Sea: 52 (plus probably a couple I can’t see hiding in swamps.
That’s over 140 combat units I can see. I think the Soviets have too much strength in the south - compare that number to perhaps 40 units between Rzhev and Lake Ladoga (and six of those are trapped in that Valdai pocket). The strongest concentrations here in the south are too far west for safety from the Russian viewpoint as well.

Enough strategizing - I’m easily distracted. Squirrel !!! Back to our river crossing. Air attacks first - big ones, 100+fighters and 250+ bombers assigned. Here is the battle result of the first one - note the large ‘Disrupted’ numbers.

[Shalkai]

Next go the infantry in their assault boats.