"I have no idea what I'm doing" Bread (Axis) v Fracas (Soviet)

[RedJohn]

Turn 100 OOB. Winter has been rough, very rough, but mud offered a reprieve for us both - thank god.

[RedJohn]

Front as of turn 100. Our African forces have also just surrendered, unfortunately.

[RedJohn]

As we approach campaign season of 43, I personally see no way I win this. From what Fracas has told me and calculated - in his words - "I did the maths on what Ill need to take to not lose at the end of 1944, I need 263 more VPs, of which I can get 230 for taking the historically captured cities + I need 33 more through early capture/ pushing further, It feels like this could really come down to the wire, I'm think my chances are better than I thought at the start of winter, but its still pretty big hill, last time I was here I had another million men"

Given the state of the front, I don't see how he doesn't reach the early capture bonuses for most of Russia at this point. My only hope is that supply inevitably catches up to him as a result of losing Moscow, but that's it. Counterattacking is rarely worth it after the morale shifts, and I trade half my units CPP (as well as damage a massive amount of elements/whatnot as all units are rifle corps for the most part) to maybe force a retreat. The Soviets can concentrate 300,000 men to attack a hex very easily meaning no hex is safe. Throughout all of the escapades of 42/early 43, he has not once made use of mechanized corps. Part of this is trucks, no doubt, especially with his wanton use of tank corps during mid 42, but I can only assume uncle Sam and the boys are continuing truck deliveries and he can no doubt form at least a handful of mech corps. These are, as far as I am aware, the most effective Soviet mobile unit.

So all in all, I must pray supply becomes a significant factor in limiting the Soivet advance. Given that the Soviets don't need to interact with the logistics system however, I am not hopeful. 43 seems brutal for the Axis unless you've kept the Soviets on the backfoot.

A large part of this of course is down to my own silly pushes in 42. It was my first ever 42 offensive as the Germans and it showed.

Overall I think it's been a good game, but it's definitely soured my opinion on the Axis. I believe the game is way too Soviet favored at the moment, and given optimal plays by both sides I think the Soviets comes out on top 8/10 times.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: RedJohn

Before I do an overview of things when I get the next turn back - turn 100 - I must say, naval invasions are one of the stupidest things I've encountered in this game. I fortified every Black Sea port I held, but apparently it is viable to just ignore that small detail, as a temporary port has generated. This initial port is also large enough to accommodate the ferrying over of additional divisions.

realise this is not the answer you want - but that makes it perfectly historical. Nobody directly invaded ports (and the Allies proved exactly why at Dieppe), the Soviets always landed over open beaches in their naval invasions and supplied the forces that way. But at some stage that temp port needs to be replaced by a proper one.

since the Soviets need to keep their only task force next to the beach head, then naval interdiction will seriously damage it - feasibly to the point of making them withdraw

ORIGINAL: RedJohn

Front as of turn 100. Our African forces have also just surrendered, unfortunately.

...

never seen it go that early, if anything usually a few turns delayed as long as your on map losses are not out of control (here I'm assuming you are not using TB control?). In that case the only variable is whether or not you can absorb the attrition losses to your forces there

[Joel Billings]

The Axis player appears to be in a strong position. You have 1/2 million or so more troops than historical and Soviets at least 1/2 million less: The Soviets can have supply issues going west and if they lost Moscow that will likely make it worse. I’m interested to see how this plays out.

[RedJohn]

We are using TB control actually. I just got unlucky with events, I think.

[RedJohn]

ORIGINAL: Joel Billings

The Axis player appears to be in a strong position. You have 1/2 million or so more troops than historical and Soviets at least 1/2 million less: The Soviets can have supply issues going west and if they lost Moscow that will likely make it worse. I’m interested to see how this plays out.

On paper yes, I am in a strong position, but I don't think it'll hold. But of course we'll see!

[RedJohn]

June kicks off with the first of the Soviet assaults. My lines are thoroughly broken in these places, with multiple tank corps in the south, and multiple guards airborne divisions north of Kharkov.

[RedJohn]

We hit back where we can. Forced them back across the river, at least.

[RedJohn]

A drop in the bucket.

[RedJohn]

The offensive continues. Over 1,000 AFVs lost for the soviets this week to my 242. But they can afford these losses, I cannot.

[RedJohn]

Also let me voice my displeasure at the Soviets maintaining 60-80000 troops from the Yalta port for many months now, and also maintaining their beachhead across Lake Ladoga (another 80,000 troops, 100,000 if we include the rifle corps adjacent). I am naval interdicting the latter, but I don't think I can isolate it. And even if I can, where do I get the troops to displace 480 CV worth of units? 1070 CV at Yalta. Even when I did manage to isolate it briefly, the CV hardly changed.

[RedJohn]

How fun [:)]

[RedJohn]

This is exactly the scenario I was fearing. The Soviets just have too many men, everywhere, in such force, that I cannot respond effectively.

I have reserves at AGS - but the moment I pull those away, as I did from Kharkov/Orel to respond to the advances there, he'll move to attack the now weakened sector. Rinse and repeat.

[RedJohn]

Turn 107. 150,000 men encircled. We'll see if I can save any.

[RedJohn]

Losses before my moves.

[RedJohn]

Losses after my moves. Soviets remain in excellent supply across the front.

[RedJohn]

The turn begins with the closing of the pocket, 130,000 men encircled. Technically 150,000 isolated but those 2 IDs can just walk away.

[RedJohn]

There's also a breach in the south, though pretty easily contained given the units there.

[RedJohn]

With things as they are, and turns being so unbelievably exhausting (and there being no sign of this pattern not repeating) I am strongly inclined to throw in the towel.

My HWM is a strong HWM, at 676. I had a very strong 41 in most sectors, but mistakes in early-mid 42 (as well as it being my first time reaching that far) have compounded into a totally fucking miserable 43. The Soviets are able to concentrate hundreds of thousands of men, extremely easily, to hit a single hex I can at most defend with 3 units. My armored/motorised have been kept as firebrigades for almost a full year now. Things will continue like this for all of July, August, September, with a brief stop when heavy mud arrives, but then doubtlessly continuing into winter/blizzard until heavy mud again arrives.

The Soviets have relatively little supply concerns. I am unable to concentrate armored/motorised for any sort of offensive because my opponent has reserves in every area, artillery divisions in every area, and any removal of my own armored/motorised reserves will lead to a slow but inevitably deadly push.

I have suffered worse defeats in this campaign I think than this pocket, but I've always believed it's possible to scrape together a comeback. This belief has sadly expired, I just don't see how it's possible to stave off collapse in 43 at the rate things are going.

So yeah, this game is open to anyone who wants to claim it. Otherwise I guess it's on permanent hiatus.