Lunacy In The Pacific Mogami Vs. Tom Hunter

[Tom Hunter]

In the last two days the Allied air force in Burma has started the little known predecessor to the Arc Light bombing campaing of the Vietnam war, operation Lamp Light.

The intel report showed radio transmissions coming from a road in the Jungle. So I did what I always do when confronted with a mystery I do not understand, I reacted with senselss violence.

Day Air attack on 20th Engineer Regiment, at 32,37
Allied aircraft
Buffalo I x 10
Blenheim I x 14
Blenheim IV x 9
No Allied losses
Japanese ground losses:
63 casualties reported

This is one of several attacks along the road. I am sending everything that can reach, because every time I get a bomb hit the experience level of the pilots rises. This is especially important for the fighter pilots, because when the war starts in ernest I do not want to be using xp 50 pilots. It is also helpful for the bombers as well, xp 70 bombers score a lot more hits than guys in the 50s. Finally it does slow and weaken the Japanese on the ground which is also a good thing.

[Tom Hunter]

and the map:

[Tom Hunter]

Burma:

Burma gets the troops it started with, plus all the Chinese SEAC units. I had 7 Chinese division march in and 2 were airlifted to Mandalay to buy time, something that turned out to be uneccissary. With the benefit of hindsight I could have airlifted 2 more, which would have been wise. The airlifted divisions are pulling replacements and one of them is up to 112 AP, the divisions that are walking in are in the 70s and 80s.

I have started moving more troops South to Rangoon because Mandalay is crippling them with Malaria. I just took a look and some of them are at 60% fatigue and they are just sitting and building forts, they have not been attacked at all.

If I could supply Rangoon I might figth for it, but Mogami has already sunk a few transports in the harbor. So when the Japanese cross into Burma the Burma army will move North, bombing the Japanese all the way. There may be a stand near Mandalay but that can't be done for long because the troops retreat to Lashio if forced out. Akyab has only one BF at present but it may get another, I did relocate the Rangoon CD to Akyab to get the coastal guns.

There are 5 reasons to fight in Burma. It buys time for the rest of India, time that is being put to good use as the engineers, HQs and brigades from Malaya disperse to thier appointed homes around the subcontinent.

It gives the Allied airforce a chance to train up by bombing Japanese troops. This is critical, which is why I say it over and over again.

It maximizes the supply to China

It gives the ground armies training

Finally if the Japanese stay long they get Malaria which can really mess up a unit.

Right now the battle for Burma is being fought by Allied aircraft dropping bombs on Japanese units traveling the roads of Thailand. I figure it will be 24-32 days before the Japanese troops from China reach Raheng in strength and jump off against Burma.

My biggest fear is that Mogami would hit me with a Seaborne invasion at the same time. KB just showed itself near Tarawa, which is slightly reassuring, but I am making no assumptions, there is plenty of time for KB to reach the Indian Ocean before the ground troops will be ready to attack.

[Tom Hunter]

Once again the map, gotta wait before I hit the send button

[PimpYourAFV]

[:D] Like this report a lot. You sure are a bombing professional. Did you used to be a B-52 pilot doing Arc Lights? The Mog monster is most probably getting wobbly now with all those pinpricks. Gonna have to do a search for some reading material about LampLight. Bombing is cool. Vietnam must be the most bomb abused strip of earth on the planet. But the vegetation is still lush so the environmentalists can't complain about heavy bombing can they?

As for the Singapore evac, I can see your point and have been convinced. I can feel the friction within my mind rejecting the evac idea but logic wins out here. That's good you're holding out in Manila though.

[PimpYourAFV]

Okay here we go everyone. This post is to start oddsmaking on who thinks who's gonna win the war. Same as is done before major UFC fights, viewers can state who they think will win and an explanation for their choices. Everyone is welcome!! Even dumb newbies like me.

Once a few people have participated I will begin a running odds value. Please pick one player to win, don't say "I don't know cause they are both doing everything so well. I vote for both." or something lame like that. I will go first to set an example and not look like a jamtart.

I have to go with Tom on this one. With his bombing expertise coupled with the overwhelming power of allied bombers steadily growing, the Mog monster has his days numbered. Add to this, Tom is really careful about his handling of ground units as seen in China fights and the defence build-up in Burma. I think Tom's concern about Hawaii is a little extreme but better to be safe than sorry when you got nothing to lose and a monster to slay.

So who do you think is gonna win everyone? [:)]

[Nomad]

Tom, of course. I would never bet on Mogami. [:D]

Besides it was in the opening posts that Mogami was forbidden to win. Wasn't it? Oh damn, you mean it wasn't? [&:]

[jwilkerson]

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

Burma:

<snip>

There are 5 reasons to fight in Burma.

<snip>

I've got a sixth ! Allows Allies to threaten resource and HI centers that are otherwise safe ( Hanoi, Bankok, Tavoy, Ban Don, Saigon etc. )

[Oleg Mastruko]

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

Burma:

Burma gets the troops it started with, plus all the Chinese SEAC units. I had 7 Chinese division march in and 2 were airlifted to Mandalay to buy time, something that turned out to be uneccissary. With the benefit of hindsight I could have airlifted 2 more, which would have been wise. The airlifted divisions are pulling replacements and one of them is up to 112 AP, the divisions that are walking in are in the 70s and 80s.

I have started moving more troops South to Rangoon because Mandalay is crippling them with Malaria. I just took a look and some of them are at 60% fatigue and they are just sitting and building forts, they have not been attacked at all.

I won't reveal anything from my game - in fact there is nothing to reveal because he stopped at Moulmein just like in your game and Burma is still 100% quiet just like in your game...

But don't you think Burma is potential deathtrap for anything you send there?

What if he does not go there at all, opting to land in India directly? Then Burma units are not only screwed and auto-POW-ed, they also cannot help with India defence which is a big deal.

In "all out" game as Allies vs experienced opponent, I am quicker to evac Burma than Malaya. Burma is nothing, it's isolated from mainland India by poor roads, and its only worth is as base for nuisance air raids (couple air base units suffice for that).

Consequently, as IJA, I want to clear Burma up to Mytkyna before I clear Malaya. I need Mytkyna to kill China supply.

If I'd be playing "lunatic" game with me as IJN, I'd amphib attack Singapore on turn one, conquer it by turn 3, and go directly to India, bypassing ALL surviving Malay units and all Burma units. Starting units in India are laughable, and I'll have India for me, with plenty of time to deal with stranded Burma and Malaya units later.

Personally this is (or was) my biggest fear - that he'll bypass Burma altogether, or block all units there effectively making it into one big POW camp.

(In my game I no longer fear that cause I evacuated Burma already to bolster India defense.)

[Tom Hunter]

Tokyoboy thanks for all the flattering comments. I am afraid you will be spending a lot of time searching for Operation Lamplight, it's a joke, a play on the historical Arclight raids that happened in that part of the world 25 years later. Has anyone else noticed that Cambodia and Laos are not even on the map? I figured Arc lights are very bright, and lamp lights produce a fraction of the candle power, just as Blenhiems and Brewster Buffalos produce a fraction of the bombing power of a B52.

I'm much to young to have flown anything in Vietnam. I started riding a bycicle around the time the war ended.

Oleg I don't look at Burma as a death trap, everything can head North and get out. I look at Burma as a training ground for the Allied airforce and the Chinese. Hopefully the aircraft XP will move into the 70s by the time the campaign ends, and with luck the Chinese troops will leave Burma at 60-70% XP as well.

If Mogami bypasses Burma then I lose nothing in the defense of India, plus I have a well garrisoned country with its own supply and level 5 airbase on the enemy lines of communication. Those Chinese turn into 155 AP units, with 10 of them I could start invading Thailand if I was completely bypassed.

More likely they will be pushed up into the North of Burma as Mogami goes for India, but that is ok too. India has the starting forces, plus the entire army from Malaya, only 2 or 3 shiploads of troops were sunk out of something like 100 shiploads moved out of the country. I even pulled out damaged P40Bs from the AVG. India has the Dutch airforce as well, and even a few fragments of Dutch ground units. I am by no means fully prepared in India but I am already better prepared than any player I have ever read about.

That is the final reason for fighting in Burma, delay. All these units from Malaya are scattering across the country building up bases. There will be CD units in every port on the subcontinent within 5 days. Asanol is up to L5 airbase, Many cities have L3 Forts now, and they will be getting more bigger forts soon. The base next to Karachi is being built up by the 18th division so I will have a good airbase that cannot be hit by shore bombardment right next door to Karachi. The more time I have before the Japanese arrive the stronger my position. If it buys enough time losing everything in Burma is justified but I doubt I will need to.

The final thing is that I got the best of both worlds in Malaya. Mogami did not figure out I was running until January 14th or 15th. So he could not start adjusting his plans until then. Now its the 18th or 19th and most of the troops will be in position within a week.

I think you lunatic strategy makes sense but it is not the one Mogami followed.

[Tom Hunter]

China is calm on land, but the Japanese are pounding Changsha from the air. This has stalled the fort building at level 6. Chinese forces are about to besiege Canton. This will use some supply but help boost the experience level of the Chinese army. I have no expectation of actually taking the city.

In the North the army at Homan is moving back towards the rail junction hex after a 4-5 day rest period. All units over 50 fatigue stayed behind. The Yenen army is moving back to Chengting as well, and there is a slow airlift from Homan to Yenen working to cover the rear.

The Phillipines is all about supply in Manila. There is one 7,000 AK unloading now, this is the supply level over the last 3 days:
Jan 19: 10,450 unloaded 1,000
Jan 20: 11,103 unloaded 2,000
Jan 21: 10,248 unloaded 1,970

Mogami is pounding the port with bombers, this is the most recent attack:

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 27
Ki-27 Nate x 31
Ki-21 Sally x 70
Ki-49 Helen x 16
Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 2 damaged
Ki-21 Sally: 5 damaged
Ki-49 Helen: 2 damaged
Allied ground losses:
180 casualties reported
Guns lost 5
Port hits 17
Port fuel hits 2
Port supply hits 3

On the 19th the port supply loss was 10 [X(] if the place was not being pounded supply useage would be 500-1000 but with all the bombs it's running near 2,000 a day. More ships are on the way, another 7,000 will arrive in a bit more than a week, and a 4,500 a few days after that. Eventually Mogami will figure out why Manila is lasting so long, but I hope that does not happen until sometime in February.

Burma is the land of bad weather, very few Allied aircraft have flow attacks in these last few days. That means Mogami's army is getting closer, but it has not arrived yet. In the North the 7 Chinese SEAC divisions are closing in on Myitikyna, I may start flying them into India from there. In the South 2 SEAC divisions are building up at Rangoon, one is at 115 AP the other at 96. There are 5 British Brigades in the area as well, these forces will fight a delaying action. Unfortunately Paratroops are a big threat, so I will have to spread my troops out to keep escape routes open. Still I think it will be possible to slow the Japanese down and give the Chinese some useful experience in the course of the retreat.

Off Java the Allied airforce launched a big attack on the 3 CVLs of baby KB and failed to score any hits. They did lose 20 planes, and I am glad, because all my blind pilots are dead now, and I can replace them with people who can see. The next day the CVLs were gone but some DDs went to Tjiliap and wonder of wonders my 40 plane strike actually hit one with a bomb.

Japanese troops are now one hex from Batavia so this whole show is going to end very soon.

In Malaya the enemy is advancing down the middle of the pennisula with no opposition. There will be a short fight for Singapore at the end of the month and that will be that.

South Pacific is quiet, supplies are unloading, troops and aircraft are still a week or two away.

Hawaii has most of the troops deployed, bases and forts expanding and the amount of supply at each location is increasing. The build up is now being extended to Palmyra.

North Pacific is getting the historical base forces and units because I get constant messages about Japanese planning for Russia. Mogami wrote that the Russian planning is a diversion, and maybe it is, but he could also be spreading disinformation. If he does go for Russia I want the Americans to support the Soviets and that means some sort of minor build up at the bases along the route. There is also a line of submarines between Kiska and Midway fillling the gap in case Mogami does try to go for the US coast by the Northern route.

At sea the US Navy is rotating cruiser groups into and out of the South Pacific. This is gradually increaseing the night fighting capability of the ships up to the 55 level. Not very good, but much better than 30 or 35 that some ships start with.

India continues preperation for serious combat. When I have finished moving all the troops from Malaya into their final positions I will post a detailed map. Right now some BFs are in place and others are aboard ship or on trains, the same goes for combat units. One thing that I have just about finished doing is putting a Naval Base Force in every port, that means that every coastal city has CD guns, at least a few. They all have mines now too, the Dutch MLs that got out of the NEI are working overtime.

[Tom Hunter]

Phillipine supply watch:
Jan 22 10929 unloaded 2,000
Jan 23 11607 unloaded 1,000 It went up[:)]

There is another 3,000 on the AK, so supply should stay constant until the 26th then drop until the next ship arrives in early February. I don't think it will go to zero, but it will drop into the red.

In China the two sides met at the Homan-Kaifeng rail junction, the Japanese brought a division down from the North, and the Chinese came in from the West. Sadly for Japan coming from the North activated the river crossing shock attack rule:
Ground combat at 50,31
Japanese Shock attack
Attacking force 21429 troops, 227 guns, 0 vehicles
Defending force 200955 troops, 1434 guns, 0 vehicle
Japanese assault odds: 0 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
5987 casualties reported
Guns lost 123
Allied ground losses:
31 casualties reported

That went pretty well for China, and there will be a Chinese shock attack next turn that ought to turf out the beat up Japanese division and the unit that was in the hex before. Most of the Japanese army is between Hsinyang and Changsha, heading (I think) for Changsha. Changsha has a little over 3,000 AP and is about to have a level 7 fort.

Further South the Wuchow army is besieging Canton. They are launching bombardment attacks in an effort to improve thier experience, hopefully it will help.

Burma continues to bomb the Japanese, but nothing much happened there, or in Java, the South Pacific or anywhere else.

India is getting better organized but I am still not ready to show the defenses, I want the garrisons in place so I can discuss them and the strategy.


Mogami continues to husband his forces, except for air power in China where he is bombing the crap out of Changsha. KB has vanished, there have been no major invasions, and he has not even moved into Batavia, though that will happen real soon I am sure.

My best guess is he is waiting for two things: First for the troops from China to show up at the Burmese border so he can go on the offensive. This is a known fact, Mogami said it in an email, and I have been able to identify 2 divisions, and HQ unit and an engineer by bombing them and taking photos of the shoulder patches of the troops as they fly up into the sky propelled by the explosions.

The thing controlling Japans ability to launch offensives is the large number of troops tied down in Java and the Phillipines. The troops in Java are being held in place by tiki bars and excursion trains, backed by a tiny number of Dutch troops. But the Phillipines is doing fine at the moment and is keeping over 120,000 Japanese in place. The big question is when these guys do free up, where will they go?

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

My best guess is he is waiting for two things: First for the troops from China to show up at the Burmese border so he can go on the offensive. This is a known fact, Mogami said it in an email, and I have been able to identify 2 divisions, and HQ unit and an engineer by bombing them and taking photos of the shoulder patches of the troops as they fly up into the sky propelled by the explosions.

[:D]

I keep looking for this button - it must be in a new patch???

[DuckofTindalos]

A VERY new patch... I'm patched to 1.72b, and I don't have one of those...[:)]

[Tom Hunter]

Logistical note; the date posted in the subject line is the date of the last turn sent back to Mogami, so Jan 25 means I have seen combat reports up to Jan 24 and sent moves up to Jan 25.

Phillipine Supply Watch:

January 24 14465 unloaded 2000

In the Jan 24 combat phase 150 bombers hit Manila and then Mogami launched a huge shock attack:
Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 264990 troops, 2579 guns, 360 vehicles
Defending force 92500 troops, 876 guns, 198 vehicles
Japanese assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 5)
Japanese ground losses:
10402 casualties reported
Guns lost 200
Vehicles lost 20
Allied ground losses:
1611 casualties reported
Guns lost 33

265,000 troops [X(] !!! I think these are troops that were originally heading for Java or Malaya and now Mogami is trying to knock over the Phillipines more rapidly to free up the army and cause trouble elsewhere.

After that, there was 8965 supply in the city, 1,000 supply unloaded and the transport is empty. It is picking up some troops from a base force and pulling them out. The next 7,000 AK is expected to arrive in about 8 days. There is a 4,500 AK 3 days behind that, if those ships can unload Manila will have supply until Feb 12 to 15th. I figure the supply in the units will give me a week or two of survival after the supply in the city is gone. So those 265,000 Japanese should be pinned until Feb or March. More ships are coming, one at a time, and only time will tell how long I can keep this little survival game going.

In Burma the weather got a little better and 4 engine bombers sortied from Dacca and blasted the airfield at Moulmein:
Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 9
Allied aircraft
B-17C Fortress x 23
LB-30 Liberator x 48
Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed, 7 damaged
Allied aircraft losses
B-17C Fortress: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged
LB-30 Liberator: 1 damaged
Japanese ground losses:
115 casualties reported
Guns lost 1
Airbase hits 10
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 37

Mogami pulled the Zeros out, next turn Hurricanes will resume their attacks on the ground troops to gain xp. Various other air attacks were launched throughout the region.

There are now 8 Japanese units outside Batavia, the place will likely fall in one or two days. All air assets are out, some are in India already others are in Singapore, bombing the Japanese who just took Johore Baru.

In the South Pacific base forces and supplies have started to arrive in quantity, and large ground units and air units are not far away. The Allies have been focused on developing positions in two triangle positions, Port Moresby-Thursday Island-Cooktown and Noumea-Efate-Luganville. But the Japanese have not moved on Rabaul yet so the Allies are pushing the line of bases forward with troops landing in Guadalcanal in a few days, and moves planned into Munda and Lae. As usual the idea is to put mutually supporting bases together. Many of the units moving into these locations are coming out of the Phillipines, and the two original triangles are still being built up.

Hawaii continues to build up, the big issue now is forts and supply levels, none of my bases have over 100K supply yet but there is capacity for it at Pearl and Lanahia. Supply is beign rushed in for a long siege should one occur. If it does not occur then I have a well equipped forward base.

China will get a seperate post with a map.

[Tom Hunter]

Now China

Mogami has moved most of his troops down to Wuhan. The Chinese are going to take both Kaifeng and Hsinyang, though Hsinyang won't fall if Mogami comes back North.

The Japanese may go South for Changsha, currently a L7 fort with 3800 Assault points, there are another 800 point close by and coming in. I really don't know if the big pile of land units can take down an L7 fort or not. Maybe we will learn soon, or maybe the Japanese will turn back North to deal with the threat in that direction.

Father South at Canton China launched an unsuccessful deliberate attack:
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 69697 troops, 574 guns, 0 vehicles
Defending force 29125 troops, 297 guns, 0 vehicles
Allied assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 4)
Japanese ground losses:
105 casualties reported
Guns lost 3
Allied ground losses:
2148 casualties reported
Guns lost 78

Unsuccessful in that my casualties were higher than the Japanese, but every Chinese unit in the attack went up 3 xp. I am bombarding this turn but I may launch the same attack again next turn and see if XP keeps going up.

Right now supply in China is very good, all the factories are producing full out and the Chinese have captured about 15,000 supply from the Japanese. In a short time I will have all the Northern rail lines under Chinese control, then China will try to cut the supply line to Wuhan.

I am concerned about Changsha, there may be 400,000 Japanese troops about to hit it. But other than rushing troops in there is not much to be done. Hopefully the fort can hold, or I can draw Mogami's army off to another location. It is a gamble on both sides, if he gets to Changsha and it does not fall then the big army in the North will run wild. If it does fall then China will have to do some crazy stuff to stay strong.

[PimpYourAFV]

Tom, you're sure giving the Mog monster a rough time of it. I think your toying around with Canton may provide the Mog with a morale boost though cause its the only fight you lost more than you killed. You must be pretty good with China to keep up a solid supply. I guess this is price Mog pays for not spending some attention on the Burma road. Do your Chinese unit numbers on the map mean k=1000? Like 200k = 200,000 troops? Wow, I didn't know China had so many soldiers. If you keep up an even fight or even slowly overcome the Japanese in China, Mog can't attack Russia? Do you think you can defeat him in China? You should try and surround his troops in China with your hordes and chop him up.

This is a well written story. Looking forward to more.

[Tom Hunter]

Yes the numbers in black are the troops numbers, the numbers in red are Japanese units.

We both break down units into smaller peices to boost the units numbers and hide our true strength. However given that Mogami had 300,000 men North of Wuhan a week or two ago and maybe 200,000 in Wuhan the 33 Units is likely to be 300-400k, with another 100k in the other positions around Changsha.

It is doubtful that I can surround Mogami, his troop quality is twice mine for the most part. The exception is the troops that were surrounded at Kaifeng, they are quality 60-72. Some of my troops are quality 36, they fight with half the strength of the guys that are 72.

[Tom Hunter]

Good days and bad days.

In China the Japanese now have 29 units one hex East of Changsha. They are also moving to surround the city, and the Chinese are moving to interfere with this. Chinese armies are coming down from the North and also driving towards the sea to capture more supply and mess up the Japanese lines of communications.

In Burma some Oscars camped on a base that was being raided by Buffalos and shot down 11 of them. Ugh. The Japanese also abandonded the airbase at Moulmein due to heavy attacks by Allied planes of all types.

Phillipine supply watch:
Jan 26 10959
Jan 27 13463

The bad news is that Japanese planes spotted the AK leaving the islands and sunk it with most of a base force on board. The big question is will they see the next ship coming in or miss it. Hopefully I will get to unload more than 7,000 supply, but even that makes a real difference in the survival time of the garrison.

The Japanese have become active in the South Pacific, the two TFs on this map are CV TFs, the one closer to Rabaul sunk an ML on the 26th, and Japanese BBs raided the port and sunk an AK a day or two before. The Allies have a lot of search aircraft in the area and very few ships so this powerful Japanese force is not doing much damage. It is disrupting Allied efforts to move troops and planes into the area.





India and Hawaii continue frantic preparation for any Japanese attacks that may come there way.

[PimpYourAFV]

11 Buffalos ouch!! [:@] Why did you want to move out the base force from Manila? Don't they defend well? Or are you thinking less defenders need less supply?

That sounds like a Sun Tsey type of trick breaking down your squads to look like more. Interesting.

Can't you bomb the Japanese TFs near Rabaul? It looks like you got Guadalcanal and Rabaul all ubered up with troops and planes. That's a good foundation. I would have thought the Mog would've snatched those 2 up early on. Do you have search planes and subs in the area? Maybe he's got an AO TF out there somewhere too or can they base out of a nearby island? Do you have any B-17s in Rabaul? Where do you got your CVs now? They are hiding from the KB?