German victory in Russia??

[dtx]

Mogami - Yes, I remember (and still have sitting on a shelf) War in the East (and War in Europe). Interesting idea.

I'll second the recommendation on Barbarossa: The Russian-German Conflict, 1941-45, Alan Clark, Paperback, May 1985. I recently bought a used copy and it's quite enlightening about the many problems the Germans faced and as several noted, Hitler both helped and hurt the Germans. Before this book, I had always thought of Hitler deserved all the blame for the defeat.

The ability of the Russian political system & the individual Russian's willingness to fight despite tremendous losses can't be underestimated. If you compare either Russian or German losses to those suffered by the US, the War in the Pacific looks like a side show. To the point, the Russians and Germans each lost more in individual battles in the East than the US has cumulatively lost in wars in its entire history.

On the French repeating mistakes of WWI: One cultural aspect that sometimes hurts the French is that it isn't honorable in France to take blame - the correct thing to do is blame someone else (like the French olympic skating judge). Hence, this can lead to a lack of flexibility in fixing problems. In contrast, the US constantly bats itself about the head about both real and imagined problems in the conduct of prior wars. Obviously, some problems with US forces don't get fixed, but the fact that it's OK to say "We were wrong" does promote a better likelihood of problem resolution.

[BARKAS]

Interesting discussion, this is …...

but somehow it doesn´t really hit the point.

To be honest, I have no idea who Suvorov is or was, and I didn´t read any of his books. What I did read was a book of Soviet Marshal G. Zhukov (Reminiscences and Reflections), and that is all it takes to be convinced that the USSR was preparing for war with Germany in 1941, and even in the years before. Like every soviet military of his time, he was desperate to explain why they had been beaten up that badly in the first months of the war, and so you can read page after page where he is complaining that those Nazi - Bastards did attack before the USSR was actually prepared, that the Russians would have done that much better if his preparations and the running five-years-plan could have been completed, and so on.

That doesn´t necessarily mean they were planning an attack themselves, and it surely doesn´t hint on an attack on Germany in 1941 - in fact Zhukov tells us, that Stalin was somewhat anxious about sending another bunch of 500.000 troops to the western border in May 1941, after he had already sent 800.000 two months before, because he didn't want to provoke Hitler into action, but that he (Zhukov) could persuade him to do so nevertheless. So you do not get the Soviets with a "smoking gun", as Mr. Bush would put it nowadays.

But taking into consideration that there - undisputedly -- was a gigantic war-preparation programme running, including thousands and thousands of modern tanks and aircrafts, not to mention the literally hundreds of divisions the Russians were planning to build up within the next few years, and least not last Zhukovs own opinion that war with Germany was absolutely inevitable, sooner or later there would be war between the two dictators.

You may or may not believe that the Soviets, once prepared, would attack themselves (most people in Finland would have their own opinion about that, as well as those in Poland, let alone the people who took a short look at the "secret" papers which were found in the former DDR after the reunification, telling us much about the preferred Soviet strategy planned during the "Cold War").

Anyway, to come back to the game which should be the main topic here….. as a German player, if you would have the option to choose whether to attack in 1941, as it actually happened, or to wait ´til early summer 1943, when the Soviet troops (via game editor) are twice as strong and completely equipped with T-34 tanks and JAK or LAGG fighters instead of what they had before, with the additional option of the soviet player to attack himself at any moment he feels to be appropriate, what would you say???

And, while making your decisions, always keep in mind there are still the USA, which may not directly declare war on you if they can´t provoke you to take part in an incident that would turn public opinion towards war at home, but nevertheless will give any of your enemies unlimited credit to "buy" whatever they may need to defeat you, sending more tanks, aircrafts etc against you (OK, via Britain, the USSR or whoever volunteers, and with foreign crews, of course, but does it matter?) in this two years than you can produce in a decade of "total war" - economy in Germany, your allied and the conquered states together…..

[mogami]

Greetings, I don't think the Soviet's were above starting wars, they proved they would invade neighbors. However if you have a neighbor who is building a large air force and a large army, and using it against other neighbors and you yourself do not begin building your own air force and army.........Once Italy rearmed all the other European countries were forced into rearming. Add the German build up and there you go. The countries that did not prepare were overrun.
I think much of the Soviet build up was a direct response to Germany and Japan. Left on their own they would have likely built industry first. (Which does not mean they would not have begun WW2 in 1950)

[BARKAS]

Thanks for the greetings, Mogami…..

and I think that you ´re completely right about arms races, their reasons and their consequences as a whole.

But it seems a bit that I couldn´t express exactly what I meant to say. I was arguing from a given situation, in which Germany already is at war, the Soviets are building up their army in a breathtaking pace, and you – as a wargamer as well as the leader of a real country – will have to make a decision, which simply is attack and pray for success, or prepare for defence and pray for success…..

In a situation like this it makes no sense at all to think about the possible reasons for all the trouble, whether it was the German rebuilding of forces, the occupation of Austria and/or Czechoslovakia, the Polish mobilization, the German attack on the country, the declarations of war from Britain and France, the massing up of troops from both sides at the (new) “border” or whatever else. In Europe, at this time at least (hopefully not anymore) and for centuries before, the final solution of a struggle for power was war, and the winner took it all. A mere philosophical point of view (where is the bigger amount of guilt to be found if any, or how could all this have been prevented…... ) isn´t very helpful under such circumstances.

Taking into consideration the facts you would or should know as a wargamer (and certainly would have liked to know that exactly as a real political and/or military leader of the time), there simply are no other possible results than war or submission. This is valid for both sides, Soviets as well as Germans – the only thing you can argue about is timing.

No need to strengthen the Soviet view, I think….. with an obviously completely insane dictator in Germany, trying to conquer the whole world (less south-east Asia, which should be left to the Japanese for a while) with his 5 to 6 millions of “supernatural” German adult and physically fit soldiers (not to forget the old, the weak, the ill and the women and children, which may add up to a another 75 million if you are not too picky with your racial laws), what else can you expect but a frontal assault as soon as that man can spare the troops – or even before he can spare them, that is. There are countless books to tell you why the Soviets had to prepare for war, so take a look at them instead.

For the German side, the book I mentioned somewhere above should do for the moment. Soviet Marshal G. Zhukov, in his memoirs, has a lot to say about this, but I´m not yet willing to scan that much paper. Try it in your library, take a look on the pages 227ff, it should be helpful. To invoke your interest, I just quote a few sentences, or part thereof (Zhukov talking about the third economically five-years-plan, 1938 to 1942):

“While total industrial output grew by an average of 13 per cent, that of the defence industry increased 39 per cent…..”

“The 4th Extraordinary Session of the USSR Supreme Soviet in September 1939 passed the Law on Universal Military Service. Now all persons of 19 and over were conscripted for service in the armed forces…..”

“In April 1941 the infantry was brought up to wartime strength…..”

“In mid-March 1941, S.K. Timoshenko and I asked Stalin´s permission to call up the inductible reserve personnel so as to update their military training in infantry divisions. At first our request was declined. We were told that by calling up reservists on such a scale might give the Germans an excuse to provoke a war. At the end of March, however, we were allowed to call up 500.000 men and non-coms, and sent them to border military districts to augment infantry divisions there…...
To dispose of this subject, let me just say that another 300.000 were called up a few days later…..”

“From January 1939 to June 22, 1941, the Red Army received over 7000 tanks…..”

OK, that really should do to provoke some interest, shouldn´t it???

Again, I´m not talking about guilt or innocence – you´re unlikely to find anything of the latter anywhere in history, if you take a closer look – I´m talking about decisions to be made in a given situation. Keeping this and the things said above in mind, a German or Russian player/ruler (as well as a Roman or Carthaginian one, that is) will not have to decide whether there will be a war or not, but will only have to choose the moment to start it to have the best chances to win, do so, and instead keep his personal historians busy with explaining why it was inevitable afterwards.



BARKAS