Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Canoerebel]

4/17/44 and 4/18/44
 
Eniwetok:  The Eniwetok invasion force continued it's unmolested way, taking position 60 miles north on 17th.  All ships then moved to the island the following day, with many support personal (two base forces, Naval HQ, etc.) remaining aboard ship while the infantry, engineers, and artillery went ashore.  There wasn't any appearance by the Jap navy or airforce.  The base was mined, but the Allies had alot of MSW.  A few ships including a DE, LST, AK, and DD took hits, but only one (an LST) went under.  The defense consisted of just a base force, a naval guard unit, and four forts.  The automatic shock attack came in at 287:1 and the Allies seized the base with the defenders evaporating. 

Eniwetok's Future:  Eniwetok is currently a level four airfield (that's the max) and a level three naval base (it can increase to four).  The Allies transferred in two P-38J squadrons and two PBM Mariner squadrons from Midway and vicinity, and tomorrow will commence unloading crated aircraft (mostly Corsairs and Hellcats), supplies, and fuel.  John made a remark questioning whether the Allies can hold the base, and observing that it would be tough to supply.  I disagree.  I don't think the Japs have a prayer of reclaiming Eni given the size of it's garrison and since Jap naval air power and combat ship numbers are way down.  The Allies will probably back fill by invading Wake (unless John loads it up) and then will use Eniwetok for further expansion.  I have an AS in port, too, so subs will be based here.  This is a big base right in the middle of the sea lanes John will have to use if he wishes to support more forward bases (like Kwajalein, and Tarawa, Baker Island)and even threatens the line to more southern bases like Rabaul, Noumea, Suva, and Pago Pago.  I'll try to gauge whether John intends to fight for any of these.  The ones I really want are Pago Pago, Suva, Noumea, Espiritu Santo, and possibly Rabaul.

Sumatra/Malaya:  A big Jap CA/CL combat TF returned to Malacca and savaged the RN CL/DD fleet, sinking seven DDs and damaging the other ships.  The Japs did not reach the transports, however, and they have completed their work. While this was goingon, Jap LBA sorties against ships at Bankha and Georgetown and suffered lopsided losses - 138 aircraft to just 15 for the Allies.  To the north, two Allied units have arrived at Ban Don with three more a day or two out.  The Japs are reinforcing now, and my guys are low on supplies, so I probably won't take the base in the near future.  Liberator IIIs from Sabang hit the port of Singapore on the 18th, putting two 500 lbers into BB Ise (but that wouldn't do any damage).  Two B-29 squadrons from Rangoon were supposed to participate, but didn't fly. The raid was preceded by fighter sweeps which scored well.  The B-29s will try again tomorrow.

NoPac:  Two bombardment TFs hammered Paramushiro Jima on the 18th, and D-Day is tomorrow.

Vettim: Your advice was sound and the wiser and safer course of action, but in this case I got away with taking a chance. Sometimes hunches work, sometimes they don't. I'm glad this one worked.

[Canoerebel]

4/19/44 and 4/20/44
 
NoPac:  The Allies began landing two Army divisions and four RCT plus an arty unit at Paramushiro on the 19th, with an HQ units still several days away.  I'm not in a big hurry here, because five US BBs (four old ones and New Jersey) are hitting the base nightly, and I don't foresee any chance that the Japs will contest the invasion as the Paramushiro area is well within the umbrella of Allied dominance.  As of the 20th, the Allied AV is 1063 to 460 for the Japs.  The first attack will take place in maybe two or three days.  The defense consists of two brigades plus a variety of engineers and base forces totaling some 40,000 troops, but I think it should fall fairly soon.  As soon as that happens, the Allies will hit one of the four remaining Aleutians bases.  Then I'll need to decide just how many carriers and BBs I want to station indefinately at Shikuka to protect against any Japanese counterattack, and how many I can send down to CenPac to help there.  B-29s at Shikuka were ordered to hit aircraft factories at Gumma but didn't fly.  I've redirected them to hit resources at Sapporo tomorrow.
 
CenPac:  Men, machines, and material are unloading at Eniwetok and this base looks secure to me.  There is a chance that Ponape is vacant or lightly defended and I have a mismash of troops at Midway 100% prepped for that base (4th Marine CD, 18th Combat Engineers, 188 Field Artillery, 193rd Tanks, and a base force and Sea Bee) so I might take a stab at it.  Those troops are already embarking on transports.  Many troops are prepping for Wake Island but it will take awhile to get them to Midway (including two army divisions currently at San Francisco).  I haven't yet reconned Wake and won't invade if John loads it up - I don't need it that badly - but I think there is a chance that John wouldn't want to risk a huge loss of troops for an outpost that probably is sort of marginalized at this point in the game.  CV Wasp, a total of 15 CVEs, and BB Richelieu are now available in CenPac, and I will augment this force from NoPac sometime in the next month or so.
 
SoPac and SWPac:  There are lots of available targets down here and the Allies will make a move as soon as I can send some combat ships and carriers to help.  Depending on what happens in CenPac that may not be too far off.
 
Australia:  John has heavily fortified the three bases on Timor and it appears that Amboina is stoutly defended.  But there are many other bases that look vacant.  I have the troops at Darwin prepping for a variety of targets.  All I need are ships.  They'll get here eventually, but it may be two or three months.  The Aussies reclaimed Exmouth on the 20th.  That base fell to the Japs way back in 1942 and was the first strong clue I had that I was in big trouble in Australia.  And what a nightmare that campaign was in late '42.  The Allies will take the other cities (Derby, Wyndham, Broome) over the next week or two.
 
Malaya/Sumatra:  Uh oh, wierd stuff happening here.  The Allies outnumber the Japs at Ban Don, but are low on supplies.  Meanwhile, it appears that John ordered his troops to vacate Victoria Point by bushwacking through the jungles.  The first unit arrived a hex north of Ban Don where I had one unit moving to Ban Don.  So now I'm low on supplies and my line of supply is threatened.  I can't offer much help from the north due to slow going on bad roads, but I had already decided to re-target the army at Rangoon, changing the prep from Victoria Point to Alor Star (this was hard to do because they had been 100% prepped for probably five months).  I'll transport them by sea to Georgetown and then move north.  So both sides are facing mutual isolation. B-29s at Rangoon made the first Superfortress raid of the war, with 90 hitting the port facilities at Singapore, scoring 8 hits on BB Hyuga and 9 on BB Ise (but these were 500 lb bombs so the damage was minimal).  They also damaged a sub, a couple of merchant ships, CA Chikuma (lightly) and an AV.  The Allies can build the airfields at Georgetown, Hue, and Darwin into level seven airbases that can handle Superfortresses.  This means that Singapore, Batavia, Soerabaja, Kendari, Manila, Cebu, and many other ports are no longer safe havens for the Japanese navy.
 

[JeffroK]

Well done at Eniwetok, I think you were right in taking the risk.
 
Its now time to make John worry about your moves rather than vice versa.

[Canoerebel]

4/21/44
 
Paramushiro Jima:  The Allies continue unloading troops, bombarding, and awaiting arrival of an HQ loaded on LSTs about two days away.  As soon as the HQ unloads the Allies will try a probabing attack to gauge the strength of the defenses.  I have two RCT in reserve.

NoPac:  B-29s and other 4EB based at Shikuka hit resources and oil at Sapporo, scoring at least 150 hits.  John has heavy fighter concentrations at most cites in the Home Islands except Sapporo.  So he recognizes the threat of strategic bombing, but probably has given up Sapporo as a lost cause too close to Allied airbases.

CenPac:  Quiet here as the Ponape troops load at Midway.

Sumatra/Malaya:  There are units all over the place and it will take awhile for things to sort out here.  I know one thing - I need more troops to land at Georgetown so that I can move north and offer help to the troops at Ban Don, which tried a deliberate attack that came off at 1:1 and dropped forts from 6 to 5.  I didn't miss a 2:1 by much, but my troops are very low on supplies and can't stand on their own for long.

Points:  The spread dropped below 7,000 for the first time.  Japs 52,968 to Allies 46,178.  Strategic bombing is making a big impact, as expected.

[ny59giants]

B-29s and other 4EB based at Shikuka hit resources and oil at Sapporo, scoring at least 150 hits. John has heavy fighter concentrations at most cites in the Home Islands except Sapporo. So he recognizes the threat of strategic bombing, but probably has given up Sapporo as a lost cause too close to Allied airbases.

I would switch over to hit his engine factories for his newest fighters and then those new fighters. IMO, you will get Air Superiority quicker across the map this way. Then, you can go back to Resources and Oil.

[Canoerebel]

That sounds like good advice from a more experience player, but I'm going to stick to my plan as follows:
 
1.  The Shikuka-based bombers will target everything on Hokkaido because these bases are within easy escort range.  These are easy points and permit my pilots to gain more experience.  Sapporo's resources and oil are already wrecked, but I'll finish them off along with Heavy Industry, Manpower, etc.
 
2. I won't ignore the rest of the Home Islands.  Periodically, 4EB from Sikhalin Island and Iwo Jima will hit Resources and the aircraft factories at Gumma.  Once Sapporo is wiped out, these objectives will become primary.
 
3.  My 4EB may also occasionally hit airfields and ports in the Home Islands.
 
4.  After I'm satisfied with damage to Home Island resources and aircraft factories (assuming I ever reach that point), I'll turn to other strategic targets including Heavy Industry, Oil, and engines.
 
This has been my plan for a long time, so I'm comfortable sticking with it. 

[Q-Ball]

In general, a good Japanese player though will stockpile engines, specifically to counter the tactic of bombing the engine factories. I learned from a couple AAR's, you should really stockpile those engines so you can "live on fumes" later on.

The only sure fire way to reduce aircraft production is to bomb the aircraft factories. With HI or Resources or Oil or Engines, you don't truly know if he is short there, or has a large stockpile.

[Canoerebel]

4/22/44 to 4/24/44
 
CenPac:  I think the Jap carrier force that hit Raratonga has returned to CenPac and taken base at Maloelap.  Carriers were sighted  to the east of Maloelap by a USN sub yesterday, and then at that island today by recon from Eniwotak.  The Ponape-bound troops are now on transports at Midway, but won't sail for a few days as I wait to see if John is up to anything.
 
NoPac:  The Allies tried their first assault at Paramushiro on the 24th.  It came off at 1:1 (adjusted AV of 1396 to 1003) and failed to budge the five forts.  The Japs lost twice as many men (954/8 to 432/17).  I have another RCT about three days out.  I'll continue the nightly bombardments by the four-BB TF.  After two weeks of heavy bombardments I had really expected a weaker defense, but given the proximity of so much firepower I think the Japs will yield the base sooner rather than later.  B-29s and other 4EB from Shikuka hit Sapporo's resources on the 24th, knocking out 56.
 
Malaya/Sumatra:  B-29s from Rangoon hit the Japanese troops at Ban Don, but didn't do much damage.  It will take a couple of weeks for the Allies to shuttle troops from Rangoon to Georgetown and then to advance north, but that's the next big Allied operation.  A Liberator III raid from Sabang on the port of Singapore on the 23rd met with a bloody repulse - the Brits losing 36 heavy bombers.
 
China:  The Japs are moving on Wuchow, a belated attempt to apply pressure after the Allies moved so many troops out of China and into SEAC.  The Chinese AV at Wuchow is about 2500 with 9 forts, and 2000 AV are in reserve at Lungchow (reorganazing after the siege of Haiphong).  I'll move part of that army back toward Wuchow "just in case."  The advancing Jap army is some 15 units strong; not enough to pose a real threat according to my intel estimates.

[FOW]

I find the RAF Liberators a lot more fragile in use than USAAF B-24s, even when flying from the same base.
When I've operated both out of Rangoon against Bangkok the Lib squadrons always have more a/c damaged at the start of the turn, so have to be rested more often, reducing the tempo of ops.
Have you noticed anything similar?

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: FOW

I find the RAF Liberators a lot more fragile in use than USAAF B-24s, even when flying from the same base.
When I've operated both out of Rangoon against Bangkok the Lib squadrons always have more a/c damaged at the start of the turn, so have to be rested more often, reducing the tempo of ops.
Have you noticed anything similar?

Now that is weird because in my Big B campaign I have noticed the exact opposite - the B-24's seem more fragile than the Liberator III's. Also in Big B you seem to have oodles of the UK variant and don't get decent numbers of the US version until -J comes online in September 1943 (which is still 3 months away for me)

[Canoerebel]

NoPac:  Paramushiro Jima fell to the Allies on the 28th.  The collapse of resistance was unexpected, since the previous attack had come off at 1:1.  This time it came in at 8:1, the difference being one more RCT plus a few more nightly bombardments by the four-BB TF.  It will take weeks to wipe out the remaining 35,000 Japanese troops, but this makes my supply line from Alaska to Shikuka more secure.  200+ 4EB from Shikuka (including 90 B-29s) hit various targets in Hakodate including resources, Kawasaki engines, shipyard, and heavy industry.  This target was chosen because I had hit Sapporo so many times in succession that I feared I was too predictable.

CenPac:  The Ponape troops left Midway on the 28th under cover of CV Wasp and escorts.  They will be met near Wake Island by several TFs from Eniwetok covered by eight CVEs.  The CVEs will escort the Ponape troops back to Eniwetok while several empty transport TFs continue back to Wake Island.  I have 6th Marine Division and an Army division at San Fran prepping for Wake, and it may be two weeks or longer before I can get them to Midway.

Australia:  The Aussies reclaimed Broome on April 26.  A tank unit will recapture Wyndam in less than a week.  A Jap carrier TF showed up near Derby and sank the lone AK that was handling the amphibious operations at Broome and Derby.

Malaya:   The Japs suddenly evacuated Ban Don, so the Allies took this base on the 26th.  I'm not sure why John gave it up since I couldn't have taken it for weeks.  Perhaps he has his own supply problems or sees the situation differntly than I do.  Ban Don has some resources and my troops are suddenly fully supplied, so I'm hoping to hold this base until reinforcements arrive.  They will come most likely from the troops at Rangoon who shall be ferried to Georgetown and then march on Alor Star.  I've been hitting Bangkok daily with a mismash of aircraft from Rangoon.  On the 29th, John orchestrated an ambush by 80 Jack, George and Tony.  In came a few bombers escorted by British Thunderbolt IIs and American P-47s.  The Japs lost 33 aircraft and the Allies 7.

Points:  Japs 52,945; Allies 46,990.  The spread is below 6,000 for the first time.  Strategic bombing points now 3,148.

Liberator IIIs:  Yes, FOW, I too have found the Liberator IIIs more fragile than B-24s.

[Canoerebel]

4/30/44 to 5/3/44
 
CenPac:  The empty Allied transports from Eniwetok escorted by eight CVEs headed north to rendezvous with the transports loaded for Ponape escorted by CV Wasp heading south from Midway.  Jap bombers sortied in large numbers from Wake on May 1, with none scoring hits.  The Japs lost 115 aircraft to 15 for the Allies.  John expressed utter frustration and promplty withdrew all aircraft from Wake, allowing the two Allied TFs to rendezvous, with empty transports then heading NE toward Midway and the combined CVE/CV Wasp TFs escorting the Ponape-loaded transports back toward Eniwetok.  The Japanese attacks brought back ugly memories of my game vs. Miller in which he used Iwo Jima to hammer a number of Allied convoys, sinking many, many CVEs.  This increased my desire to take Wake in order to protect my line of supply, but recon shows that atoll held by 40,000 troops.  I don't think I want it that bad.  Instead of seizing Wake, I might be better moving south from Eniwetok and Ponape (assuming I take the latter) toward the Solomons to open a supply line with Australia.

NoPac/Carriers:  Three CVs and three CVLs left Shikuka on the 3rd, heading for the Aleutians and then for CenPac.  Assuming no losses anywhere in the meantime, this will give me four CVs, three CVLs, and 15 CVEs in CenPac, with more CVs and CVEs scheduled to arrive at Panama City in eleven days.  This will be a big enough force to handle operations in CenPac/SoPac/SwPac for the foreeseeable future.  I have something like four CVs, four CVLs, and eight CVEs in NoPac, which I think is sufficient to hold Sikhalin against any conceivable attack now that the Allies also have decent airfields at Onnekotan and Paramushiro to compliment the big fields on Sikhalin Island.

Australia:  The Aussies are in ready to go as soon as the Allies can lend them the ships to get somewhere.   Depending on what decisions are made with respect to Wake/Ponape/Solomons, that day may not be too far off.

Malaya/Sumatra:  The first wave of reinforcements from Rangoon are on the way to Georgetown, with more to follow over the next ten days.  I'll probably leave about 750 AV in Rangoon as a reserve.  

Philippines:  38 B-29s from China hit the port of Manila, damaging 2 AP, 1 AK, 1 AR, and 1 PG.  This was the first Allied offensive activity in the PI since early in the war.

Edited to add: Operation Aurora is the invasion of Wake Island, although I don't know if I'll ever go through with it.

[ny59giants]

Operation Aurora is the invasion of Wake Island, although I don't know if I'll ever go through with it.

I would take Wake and then Marcus Island. This will make the North Pacific your lake and free up the need for any escorts to and from Sikhalin Island. Once this is done, all your carriers could be used for a more aggressive strike and/or invasion somewhere else.

[Canoerebel]

NYGiants, I have the benefit of a great deal more information about disposition of enemy troops on the map that factors into my decisions.  John suddenly has a big base (Eniwetok) threatening his SoPac/SwPac positions.  He had apparently built up the obvious targets like Wake (and presumably Marcus and Kwajalein).  Rather than get bogged down in big battles there, thus allowing him to reposition elsewhere, I think I'll bypass those targets and try for softer targets deeper into Jap territory.  It makes sense strategically because it allows me to link up with Australia more quickly.  That's my thinking.

[Canoerebel]

5/4/44 to 5/6/44
 
CenPac:  The Ponape invasion TFs made it to Eniwetok without encountering the enemy.  The CVEs have made good the few aircraft lost during the cruise.  I was set to send the force on toward Ponape, but noticed the Japs may have carriers at Kwajalein.  I've ordered recon to fly over that island to see what's up.  Ponape looks vacant although I haven't flown recon there yet (I'll do so the day the invasion TFs leave Eniwetok; then, if the island looks occupied, I can recall the ships.  The Japs have 13 units 41,800 strong at Wake.  I have three divisions (one Marine, two Army), two RCT, and alot of armored units prepping for Wake.   It is still possible that I'll invade there, but I'll continue to gather information and weigh options while awaiting arrival of the rest of the units still at San Francisco.  4EB from Iwo Jima hit Matsuyama on back-to-back days, doing light damge to resources and Kawasaki Engines facilities there.
 
NoPac:  Allied 4EB hit Ominato on back to back days; the first focusing on the airfield, the second divided between that target and the port.  The Japs lost a heck of alot of aircraft on the ground (67 the first day, 62 the next, and anoterh 30 or 40 in the air).  On the second day the bombers scored mutliple hits on 4 AK and an AR.  Allied losses were minimal.  But the Allies are having trouble wiping out the defenders at Paramushiro.
 
SwPac:  SigInt indicates 7th Indpendent Brigade at Noumea and 47th Naval Guards at Luganville.
 
Sumatra/Malaya:  The first reinforcements have arrived at Georgetown from Rangoon.  To the north, a small detachment took a weekly guarded Pisanuloke (held only by a base force).

[Grotius]

Hi Canoerebel,

I just wanted to add my voice to the chorus of praise for your AAR. I've been reading it for the past several days and have finally caught up with you. Great comeback! I haven't gotten around to reading your opponent's AAR yet; just reading yours took oodles of time. I can't imagine how much time has been involved in writing it.

I've played a few shorter PBEMs (short scenarios like Rising Sun and Coral Sea), and a couple aborted longer PBEMs, so I can certainly relate to your descriptions of the intensity of the experience. It's kind of reassuring to hear that I'm not the only one who gets entirely sucked in. I'd find myself debating strategy all the way to work in my car. It's fun but all-consuming! If and when I do another PBEM, I'm hoping I can approach it the way Cap Mandrake does, with a lightness of heart -- but that's easier said than done.

[Canoerebel]

5/7/44 to 5/10/44

CenPac: The Ponape invasion TFs have been steaming in circles south of Eniwetok while trying to sort through sightings of Japanese combat ships and carriers. The reports of greatest concern were of about eight CAs moving NE from Truk and the airfield at Wake suddenly full of fighters and bombers. I was worried John might be slipping in a carrier force. There was no sign of this TF on the 10th, and I wonder whether John might be sending the carriers on a raid toward Midway or even the Aleutians. It's all guesswork now, but I think the Allies are in good shape. Recon shows just two small units at Ponape and one of these is Ponape Base Force according to recent SigInt. So I'm going forward with the invasion. D-Day will be May 12.

Jap Carriers: I had not fully considered the temptation CV Wasp and eight CVEs would be to John. It would be no great surprise that he would jump at the chance to take on a fleet carrier under reasonably good odds. So he may well throw as much power as he can toward Eniwetok in hopes of picking off a few American carriers.

NoPac: The Allies have invaded Attu Island in the Aleutians. A single transport TF arrived on the 9th and unloaded a detachment roughly equal to the Jap garrison. John reacted by ordering a shock attack, thinking that the odds wouldn't be too bad, but overnight three more transport TFs arrived. So his shock attack failed miserably, the Japs losing more than 700 men to less than 100 for the Allies. I won't attack for a few more days because my guys are short on supplies. 4EB from Shikuka hit Sapporo on the 9th, destroying 75 resources.

Australia/New Guinea: A B-29 squadron flew from Midway to Darwin, which has a level six airfield 86% to level seven. This outfit will hit Soerabaja as soon as the airfield increases to seven. A small force landed at Merauke on the south coast of New Guinea on the 10th. I think this base is vacant. Portland Roads airfield and port just went to level one. It won't be too much longer before the Allies go on the offensive in the NG/Solomons/New Caledonia area.

Malaya/Sumatra: Sufficient troops have landed at Georgetown to make a stab at taking Alor Star. These troops should arrive at Alor tomorrow or the following day.

China: I get the feeling that John is up to something in China. Not sure what or where. But I sure don't want to let China turn into a cauldron, so the troops prepping for Camranh Bay at Lungchow will probably move north to the Changsha area to serve as a reserve.

Grotius: Thanks for the comments. I have put alot of time into this AAR. WitP takes so long to play, and requires so much time, that I wanted to create a record of the game that I could enjoy (hopefully) long after the game ended. It has been a wild game. John really throttled me at the outset, due to his aggression and familiarity with the game and my relative inexperience. I really feared a Jap auto-victory in early '43. To have come back from the brink of overwhelming defeat has been most satisfying. I've come up with some good ideas, but mainly the Allied comeback is due to the overwhelming strength of the Allied forces in WitP by late '43 and forward.

[Canoerebel]

5/11/44
 
CenPac:  Tomorrow is D-Day for the Ponape invasion (Operation Halo).  I have some misgivings about this invasion because there were Jap carriers in the area recently and I don't know their current location, and because the invason force is a hodge-podge of troops.  The go-ahead was given because it looks like Ponape is lightly held.  I also think there's a 50-50 chance the Jap carriers were headed north to the sea lanes between Midway and Iwo or Midway and the Aleutians.
 
NoPac:  Troops continue to land at Attu Island but I won't attack for three or four days so that I can bring in more supplies.  Paramushiro has been tough.  I took the base awhile ago, but the remnant Jap army refuses to give up.  Nightly bombardments by a BB TF plus daily attacks by the ground troops are slowly reducing the defender's AV toward zero.
 
Australia/New Guinea:  The Aussie unit to Merauke on New Guinea's southern coast.  If (BIG if) the Ponape invasion force goes well, the Allies will then have a decision: Use the Wake Island-prepped troops to invade Wake, or avoid that tough nut and instead move south toward the Solomons and New Guinea.
 
Malaya:  The Alor Star-prepped troops made 22 miles yesterday, so it should take three days for them to advance on that base from Georgetown.
 
Points:  Japs 53,044 to Allies 48,050.  The spread drops below 5k for the first time.

[Canoerebel]

5/12/44
 
CenPac:  The invasion of Ponape commenced and is going well.  The Allied forces didn't find any mines and the Japanese navy and airforce did not make an appearance.  The defense consists of just the Ponape base force and coastal gun unit.  The invaders consist of combat engineers, Marine CD, and a tank unit.  The auto-shock attack came off at 4:1 and reduced forts from four to zero.  A handful of LSTs and DEs were badly damaged by shore guns.  Barring something completely unexpected, the Allies should take the base tomorrow.   I've ordered my combat TF, CV Wasp TF, and two CVE TFs to move closer to Eniwetok.  Two P-38J squadrons are providing LRCAP.  My carriers should return to Eniwetok by the 14th.  Meanwhile, I'm still wondering whether the Jap carriers are moving north from Truk into the waters between Midway and Iwo Jima.  
 
Australia: The Allies reclaimed Wyndham.  The only remaining Jap base in Australia is Derby.  It's vacant and will fall in about a week.  An infantry unit is enroute from Broome.
 
Malaya:  The first troops arrived at Alor Star, with a number to follow over the next few days. I'll try a probing bombardment tomorrow.
 
Points:  The Allies just overtook the Japanese in points for bases.  This score is Allies 7,697; Japs 7,608.  The Japs hold 272 bases to 227 for the Allies.

[Canoerebel]

5/12/44 to 5/15/44
 
CenPac:  Operation Halo is a success as Ponape falls to the Allies on May 13, 1944.  The Allies lost two LCIs to shore guns and that's it.  Squadrons of Corsairs and PBMs are based at the island.  The carrier TFs and combat TF has already returned to Eniwetok.  So now the Allies have a major decision to make - secure the line of supply by taking Wake Island (a major operation that will take alot of troops and time) or head south into what seems to be a lightly-defended Solomons/New Guinea/New Britain region and link up with the Aussie troops moving north.  I'm not sure which way to go yet.  No sign of Jap carriers or combat ships in CenPac during this interval.
 
NoPac:  Attu Island falls to the Allies on May 14.  The Japs have just three bases left in the Aleutians and the Allies will take them one by one over the next few months.  4EBs from Shikuka hit Hakodate on the 13th.
 
Australia:   Darwin's airfield went to level seven.  The Allies already had a B-29 squadron there, so a strike went for Soerabaja on the 15th on the hunch that the Japs would have "hidden" some ships in this backwater area.  Sure enough, capital ships were present.  The B-29s put 12 500 pounders in BB Hyuga and one more in CA Chikuma.  The damage done to Hyuga is probably slight, but the ability of the Allies to hit this base will force John to provide CAP or abandon the base.  The Allies claimed a vacant Derby on the 15th.  The continent is finally back in Allied hands after a very difficult campaign that lasted two years.
 
Malaya:  The Japs appear to be in retreat, having abandoned Singora while retreating south along the east shore of the peninsula.  Allied troops continue to advance from Georgetown to Alor Star, with the first concerted attack just a few days away.  With the Japs in retreat, I'm not sure where they stop.  There isn't any logical line of defense except perhaps a Mersing/Johore Bharu/Singapore redoubt.  The Japs have plenty of troops and could hold off the Allies for a long time, but Allied air superiority and the mere "threat" of losing an army is forcing John's hand here.  On the 15th, 39 P-38Js did a figher sweep over Singapore and tangled with 93 Tonys, 39 Georges, and 30 Jacks.  The Allies lost 19 P-38s and the Japs lost 9 Georges, 10 Jacks, and 19 Tonys.
 
Strategic Situation:  With the Japs apparently in retreat in Malaya, and the Allies advancing in CenPac and the Aleutians, the collapse of the Japanese empire seems imminent.  But this reminds me of the sitaution just before the Battle of the Bulge.  John still has a big army, navy, and airforce and can overwhelm the Allies at one or more points of his choosing.  I'm not worried about Jap forays into areas with protected by a large number of carriers and LBA - so NoPac seems safe along with Hawaii and probably India.  Australia is safe because of the numbers of Allied troops dispersed throught the continent.  I am somewhat concerned about a Japanese "end run" around Sumatra/Malaya - perhaps a major invasion of Port Blair or perhaps even Ceylon.  No likely, but either of these would be troublesome for the Allies.  I think the most likely vector of attack would be a large-scale Japanese carrier supported invaison in CenPac or SwPac.  Targets like Eniwetok and Ponape make sense.  Midway and Iwo doesn't make sense.  Barring a Japanese offensive, the next most likely scenario would be a very spirited defense of someplace deemed by John critical or "safe to commit forces to."  Noumea, Luganville, Port Moresby, and perhaps Suva and Pago Pago fall into this category.  I do expect increased Japanese activity in China.
 
The Allies won't be mounting any major operations in CBI or the vicinity of the Jap "heartland" in the near future. The only amphibious operations any time soon will be in NoPac (Aleutians) and CenPac (Wake) or SWPac (Solomons/New Guinea/New Britain).