War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

In turn, this tells me that Steve was maneuvering for a carrier battle, which tells me that I don't want to accept one since he thinks it's on terms to his liking.

Steve has orchestrated a massive operation, but of necessity it has been slow in unfolding. In part this is because of his maskirovka (such as not taking Singapore) but in part by the size, layers, and hard-to-pin-down nature of the Allied defenses and preparations. And that's exactly what the Allies are shooting for at this point in the game - Port Blair and redoubts like it cannot stave off an all-out Japanese move in March 1942, but they can serve as effective speed bumps. Steve is smart and will take smoe ground in this invasion, but my early-on evaluation is that the Allies have handled this pretty well.

(Steve's email comment could be disinformation, but I don't thinks so.)

[Encircled]

Could the Carriers that where bothering whales and suchlike in NORPAC and CONUS have made it back across the pacific to assist?

It sounds too far, but at flank speed?

[Canoerebel]

No, those carriers were off San Francisco four or five days ago. They are still in NoPac.

[Encircled]

Yeah, just realised as I posted

Memory issues are a problem as you get older at a guess!

[Historiker]

In turn, this tells me that Steve was maneuvering for a carrier battle, which tells me that I don't want to accept one since he thinks it's on terms to his liking.

Or this means that he is surprised by your strength and hopes you'll think exactly this.

You gotta love the mind games. It is a shame I don't talk more with my opponents about the game [;)]

[Canoerebel]

3/17/42

Japanese Invasion: It appears that the Japanese invasion target is Akyab (and perhaps other bases further to the rear, like Port Blair and Sabang). It's also possible that the Japanese armada could move further west, but that would risk facing the Allied airforce at Calcutta and Delhi.

The Locus: Allied air from Akyab, Delhi and Calcutta sortied in big numbers. The dive bombers managed several hits apiece on one-each troop-carrying xAP and xAK. 30 Blenheims sortied vs. a bombardment TF targeting Akyab, but all missed. The bombardment then tore up the airfield, rendering it useless. That forces the Allies to fight from Delhi and Calcutta, which probably means that the opportunity to strike a more significant blow has passed. If Steve does come ashore at Akyab (and/or Cox's or Chittagong), the Allies can fight hard to impede their progress as they move inland, using bombers for this purpose. I don't mind waging a war for NE India; it's the rest of the country that really concerns me. Allied troops have eliminated one pocket of IJ paratroops (at the base that Steve didn't take). Now a Marine regiment is moving on to the dot hex that did fall. I want Steve to see the Marines and consider what that could mean for him in India. It will take the troops a week to reach the Japanese-held base.

IJN Carriers: currently located just NW (true) of Andaman Island.

Allied Carriers: just east (true) of Ceylon, they will retire to either Colombo or Bombay.

China: 12 IJA units across the river near Lanchow now. Holding my breath here. Down near Ankang, the Chinese easily repulsed yet another IJA attack (actually took place the turn before). The Japense divisions there are beginning to wear thin now.

North America: Prince Rupert airfield goes to level three. Will Steve invade this base and Coal Harbor before the invasion bonus expires in 14 days? He has to or I think his North American adventure won't have any legs.

[Canoerebel]

3/18/42

Bay of Bengal: The Japanese amphibious TF targets Chittagong and comes ashore in good order - the defense consists of the static fortress and an Indian brigade. Allied air sorties ineffectively, nicking one more transports. Four divisions come ashore, so they'll make quick work of the base. Allied airpower is configured as best as I can, so there may be some opportunities for torpedo strikes tomorrow (none of the torp squadrons flew today). Lots of enemy BBs present includng Yamata. Japanese carriers are mostly standing offshore about six hexes. LRCAP over the invasion fleet was about 50 strong.

Allied Defenses: The carriers refueled at Colombo and will head south a bit to clear the likely submarine zone. Two Marine regmients and two Indian divsiions are in the area and can offer the stoutest resistance. The chain of bases between Calcutta and Karachi/Bombay are garrisoned (or about to be) to prevent my troops getting isolated.

China: At least four IJA divisions are north of Lanchow. Possibly many more, but my bombers keep showing the same four. Cursor shows just ten IJA units across the river, so that's either inaccurate or (unlikely) the Japanese have pulled back.

Divsiion Reconciliation: I'll do a roster later today, but right now I know of one (2nd) in NoPac, one (56th) on Java, four at Chittagong (I think all four were part of the Clark Field seige), one (32nd) at Koepang (recently), and a host in China. When I do the reconciliation tab later today, that should tell me whethere there's any real threat posed to either Australia or North America at this point. I don't think so and I'm already moving some units to new bases where they may (or may not) rally to India's support. For instance, I already had a Marine regiment and 27th/C Div. in strat mode at Salt Lake prepared to move on to the East Coast and thence to Capetown. They won't leave East Coast unless I'm absolutely sure that whatever divisions Steve has left wouldn't be sufficient to mount a credible risk of invasion to ConUS.

North America: Quiet.

Australia: Quiet.

[crsutton]

It is getting interesting. You can forget about Greyjoy. The hits will be here for a few days.[;)]

[Lcp Purcell]

This is getting interesting, I have been looking at both AAR so I cant say much.

[Canoerebel]

Here's information I have regarding the current disposition of Japanese divisions. I'm not sure my list has a place for every diviison in the game (I might have overlooked some that are on the map or can be formed by uniting the elements; if you spot any number that are missing but can be in the game, please let me know - like, is there a 3rd Div.?). There are alot in China and now a fair number in India/SRA. I think enough are left to mount a credible campaign in Oz, but not to pose a true threat to the USA.

1 - near Nanyang
2 - Canada
4 - Chitagong
5 - recent prep info for Port Blair, but current whereabouts unknown
6 - near Changsha
7 - Hokkaido
9 - probably Manchuria
10 - probably Manchuria
11 - probably Manchuria
12 - near Lanchow
13 - near Ankang
15 - near Changsha
16 - whereabouts unknown
17 - near Lanchow
18 - Chittagong
19 - Wuchang
25 - probably Manchuria
27 - near Lanchow
29 - Probably Manchuria
32 - near Nanyang
33 - whereabouts unknown
34 - whereabouts unknown
35 - somewhere in China
36 - near Ankang
37 - near Nanyang
38 - recently at Koepang, Timor
39 - near Changsha
40 - near Lanchow
41 - near Ankang
48 - Chittagong
52 - probably Manchuria
53 - probably Japan
54 - probably Japan
55 - unknown
56 - Java
57 - Manchuria
59 - Hami in northwestern China
68 - near Nanyang
104 - Canton?
110 - Paotang?
116 - Whereabouts unknown
Imperial Guards - Chittagong
4th Guards - unknown
6th Guards - unknown

[Canoerebel]

Here's how the divisions break down by campaign:

Japan: 7, 53, 54
China/Manchuria Rear: 9, 10, 11, 19, 25, 29, 35, 52, 57, 104, 110
Lanchow: 12, 17, 27, 40
Hami: 59
Ankang: 13, 36, 41
Nanyang: 1, 32, 37, 68
Hengyang: 6, 15, 39
Chittagong: 4, 18, 48, Imperial Guards
Java: 56
Timor: 38
Canada: 2
Unknown: 5, 16, 33, 34, 55, 116, 4th Guards, 6th Guards

[Cap Mandrake]

Hory chitt! It is Chittagong!

[Ingtar]

I am now reading both sides, so no comments from me except that seeing this from both sides is wildly amusing.

[Cap Mandrake]

What is the place built up to and what do you have there in supply and fuel? Also what have you in Assam? Anything you cant afford to lose?

[Canoerebel]

Chittagong isn't built up much and will fall the first day - 1500 AV vs. about 150 is no contest. I don't have much fuel there and the airfield is a level one. Further out on the line, most of the Burma Army is spread all over creation. But it can melt into the jungle if necessary - either making for the Ledo area or even towards China. Some I might try to extract by air transport.

The reconcilation of where all the Japanese divisions are is important, becuase if, as I currently think, Steve has overloaded China, then that leaves him with precious few to use elsewhere. He needs alot more to really do damage in India (he has four; in my game with Q-Ball, the Japanese had as many as 20 divisions operating there). He can bring more to India, but probably not enough to threaten the continent. Same with North America - I don't think Japan poses a realistic threat even for some precision surgical invasions. That probably leaves three places Steve can now commit divisions - Oz, India and China. I feel pretty confident in my ability now to handle the former two. China is the real key. I even feel guardedly optimistic there, but that's the cirticial theater IMO.

[Canoerebel]

Let me put it another way. If I can complete my reconciliation (list) of the whereabouts of the Japnese divisions, I can accurately gauge the threat in each theater and I can also look for opportunities to go on the offense in sectors where I may outnumber Japan. I think there may be some opportunities in the Ankang and Nanyang sectors of China, assuming of course that I hold the Lanchow sector.

[Cribtop]

Wowzers! [X(]

[JeffroK]

Dont forget the IJA gets plenty of Regiments and Brigades which are pretty strong, in addition to lots of Bn sized forces which can hold the rear.

If only 4 Divs I would think you are OK, wouldnt want to see a similar force making a second landing somewhere.

[Canoerebel]

3/19/42

India: Japan takes Chittagong. Allied air sorties in big numbers, takes a drubbing, but beats up on several Japanese ships:

CVE Hosho - three bombs, "on fire, heavy damage."
DD Usugumo - two bombs, "sunk"
CVE Taiyo - three bombs, "on fire," then two bombs, "heavy fires"

The chances are good that these carriers will go down. Their closes port (other than Chittagong, which the Blenheims will target tomorrow) is Rangoon. Subs will patrol the tight waters between Rangoon and Port Blair.

What the Invasion Means: Four divisions and a mixed brigade are enough to give me fits around Calcutta and the Imphal/Ledo line. But they aren't nearly enough to threaten India proper. Based upon my experience with Q-Ball, I think Japan needs 15 to 20 divisions at a minimum to mount a serious campaign for India. I think Steve has five to ten more that he can devote to India, so I don't think he's coming for the entire continent - at leat not in the near future and probably not at all unless he were able to wrap up things in China. I do think there's a good chance he'll come for Ceylon, which currently has just the scattered small garrisons at each base plus about 250 AV at Colombo. The closest reinforcements are two Aussie brigades aboard ship about three days out of Colombo. I may send in the two USA RCT slated for India (the first is aboard ship already inbound from Capetown; the second is at Capetown waiting for the PP to "buy" it - I can do so in about five days). I'll be prudent in protecting Karachi and Bombay, but some of the garrisons can move forward on the basis that they are insulated from bold attack since Steve's lost two carriers and wouldn't bypass Ceylon, Diego and Socatra and get that far out on a limb, at least not with Allied carriers in proximity. Bottom Line: I think Steve is campaigning in NE India and quite possibly Ceylon, but I don't think this is an all out campaign.

China: Still no move across the river to attack the Chinese defending north of Lanchow.

North America: Nothing happening right now. Surely Steve will move on Coal Harbor before the invasion bonus expires? To me, that's the most important hex in North America.

Oz: I'm looking at my Australia forces, wondering if Steve still has plans here and wondering if and what I might send to India. I've loaded up three USA fighter squadrons to head that way, with several infantry units in strat mode in case I decide to send some of them. But a five division invasion of Oz is certainly a possibility.

I'm wondering if Steve's plan might not be to mount serious campaigns in North America, Oz, China and India, with the ultimatel goal of conquering China and taking advantageous positions in the others. But he doesn't have much longer to get his ducks in a row in Canada if he really has plans there.

[Canoerebel]

This could not be more fun. Japan is powerful in Scenario Two, in command of an aggressive, experienced and very good player here, and we're in early 1942 when things are toughest. Too much fun!