The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

That's what's happening here. Normanton is a level four port. The draw is probably aided by the fact that I have several score merchant ships disbanded in port that "need" fuel. And there are alot of troops there too (including HQ, which may help).

I have noticed thus far that when ships suck Normanton dry it doesn't draw overland again until tankers deliver (most of my deliveries are coming to Sydney and Townsville). That's probably a function of none of my major ports have an overstock of fuel.

AE is such a huge game that there are a huge number of bases that have the potential to play critical roles in a game, depending on the strategy employed by the two sides. In this game, Normanton has already proven vital. In previous games it was Coal Harbor (Victoria Island), Cocos Island, Diego Garcia, Port Blair and even Socatra, way back in the nether lands.

Variety = almost endless playability.

[zuluhour]

my 2 cents: that is a poor spotting job, you have elements of KB with oilers.

[Canoerebel]

Zulu, ordinarily I'd agree with you. But given the circumstances of this "matured" battlefield and comparative force allocation, I don't think so. Six months ago this would have been KB on a raid, but then the oilers would have trailed KB by 10 or 20 hexes, configured by John so that I couldn't get a bead on them and come in from behind to attack. If this is a KB raid, the carriers would still be way out in front.

But the odds of a KB raid in this area at this date are very low (almost non-existent). John is at a carrier disadvantage now and it's nearly imperative that he employ KB to stop the Allies in the DEI.

It really doesn't make a difference at the moment as I don't have anything vulnerable in harm's way in that part of the Pacific. I'll keep an eye on CenPac, but my guess is that KB is currently in the South China Sea (or possibly upgrading in the Home Islands).

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

AE is such a huge game that there are a huge number of bases that have the potential to play critical roles in a game, depending on the strategy employed by the two sides. In this game, Normanton has already proven vital. In previous games it was Coal Harbor (Victoria Island), Cocos Island, Diego Garcia, Port Blair and even Socatra, way back in the nether lands.

Variety = almost endless playability.

Just to avoid confusion, that should be Vancouver Island - Victoria is the provincial capital and largest city on the island.

[Canoerebel]

1/20/44

Third Ring (See map for many details): 2nd Marine Div. at Gove will attack tomorrow, mainly to gauge enemy strength. That will tell me if the campaign will be long or short, and if reinforcements are needed. I expect more ship bombardments to be needed before the base falls.

I had a sequence of oversights today that cost me lots of aircraft and one day (probably) on the Horn Island timetable. First, I have Death Star following a good ASW TF. This is fine and has worked great throughout the campaigning; but today it didn't work fine. The ASW TF reacted, meaning DS didn't make it to Normanton to refuel and replenish; plus, DS dive bombers remained in range of Gove and sortied without escort. John had CAP up. His fighters downed a goodly number of SBD5s and Hell Divers (Is that the name? I've suddenly gone blank.)

Secondly, John set some CAP over some ships at Hollandia that got hit by LBA SBD5s yesterday. I knew the CAP was coming, so I ordered P38s from Manokwari to sweep. They didn't, but the SBD5s went in unescorted and unhappily.

Thirdly, John had his strongest LRCAP over PM yet. They downed about a dozen 4EB, which got few hits on the day.

Enough "battle" transports reached Normanton to commence loading of the Horn Island assault troops. A RCT will load today. Tomorrow, the rest of the fleet should be in port so that 4th Aussie Div. can load.

Some refueling of the battle transports and another CA TF took place today. This kind of logistical progress warms the heart.

Roller Coaster (see map on following post for details): That AO TF is still steaming SE, banging drums and begging for attention. I'm not buying it.

Third Ring: Tons of preliminary steps being taken now. Troops prepping. Ships in motion to retrieve forward units slated for the op. Supply and fuel prepositioning. Plans being reviewed and revised. IE: fun.

[Canoerebel]

Monitoring the mysterious AO TF steaming SE in CenPac, in plain sight.

[Canoerebel]

I am a Hunch Whisperer. You gentlemen are Hunch Measurers. Let's see how my latest hunch measures up.

I'm on record (ad nauseum) as writing that John is most likely to next use KB in the DEI. I'm watching elsewhere: it might return to the Torres Strait; it might be in port upgrading; or it might be raiding in the Pacific (No way! I say.) But I think John'll send it into the DEI.

While hiking in the mountains today, I thought of a plan he might employ: target the shipping (including lots of good merchants, BB Pennsylvania, and CA Baltimore) at Boela. The airfield there has 230 good fighters, but LBA sweeps and KB in proximity would overwhelm that CAP and allow John to get some paintful licks in.

Boela is a good base, but it only has 200 aviation support. Tomorrow I'm going to move most of my ships and fighters to Sorong, which has 450 AV. The Big Tent fleet will hunker down there and permit John to attack, under the theory that the bloodletting would yield a good return on the investment.

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
That's what's happening here. Normanton is a level four port. The draw is probably aided by the fact that I have several score merchant ships disbanded in port that "need" fuel. And there are alot of troops there too (including HQ, which may help).

I have noticed thus far that when ships suck Normanton dry it doesn't draw overland again until tankers deliver (most of my deliveries are coming to Sydney and Townsville). That's probably a function of none of my major ports have an overstock of fuel.

You can try make Normanton a home port for DS and BB groups for a couple turns. I think it will happily draw lots of fuel from EC in return. Starting from the second turn

[Canoerebel]

That's just what happened, GetAssista. Several turns ago, I set most of DS and the Herd to home port Normanton. That's when the fuel supply there jumped. Thanks for shedding light on how that happened.

[Canoerebel]

1/21/44

The Pacific: I am a fickle Hunch Whisper. Today Saury sank one of the Japanese AO in the curious replenishment TF, down SE of Truk. This could be a diversion, but if John does need fuel forward in CenPac (or SoPac), he has important ships down there with an important mission. Perhaps he does intend to commit KB to the Torres Strait after all.

Big Tent: Still, what most worries me is a big raid in the DEI. Per yesterday's thoughts, I've shifted many of my best ships and fighter squadrons from Boela to Sorong. The latter has a bigger airfield and more aviation support. If nothing else, this will give John a different look. More of the reserve xAK and TK are going to unload fuel and supply (at both ports).

No troubling signs in the DEI today. Saumlaki airfield goes to level two; Morotai to level four. Both bases suspend airfield construction now to concentrate on forts.

Third Ring: The probing attack at Gove by 2nd Marine Div. shows four forts; casualties are light but favor the Allies. This little campaign will require reinforcements or (more likely) a series of strong bombardments.

IJ subs are concentrating in the Gulf of Carpentaria. ASW made many attacks today, but did little damage.

Normanton port facilities are overworked - so much replenishing, refueling, loading troops, etc. going on. Refueling didn't make much progress, but most carrier TFs now have 100% sorties. All air squadrons drew replacements, so the air arms are again at full strength.

Loading of 4th Aussie Div. and 9th Aussie base force commence tomorrow. Noone leaves until the carries refuel, which may take another day or two. Current estimate is that Horn Island D-Day is four days away.

[Dirtnap86]

On the Helldiver question, that is indeed their name. SBC2C, colloquially known as the Son of a B, 2nd Class by the aviators that flew it.

[Canoerebel]

1/22/44

Third Ring: A very quiet day across the map today, but there are plentiful hints that KB may be in the Solomon Sea (see map for details).

My hunch at the moment is that KB is here. John's had an eye on the Torres Strait for a long time, has expended considerable time and effort to craft bushwhacks, and may think it's his best chance for a crack at Death Star and to "cauterize" the Big Tent "infection."

The best case scenario is for KB to indeed be out here. If so, I'll drop Third Ring (Horn Island) and proceed immediately with Carousel (DEI). There are lots of bases open in the DEI, including many around Flores Island and many in the Moluccas north of Makassar. I'd love to snap them up without having to worry about the threat of KB.

But if KB isn't in the Solomons, or if I don't get confirmation of its whereabouts in the next few days, D-Day Horn Island is three days away.

[BBfanboy]

Once again with the nailbiter situation!

[Canoerebel]

Yep. But this is a really good nail biter. I like both options.

Detection levels at NE Oz bases are elevated over the past few days. John was showing tepid interest in a couple of bases for weeks, but now Normanton, Portland Roads, Cooktown, Coen and Cairns all have high levels.

Threat Assessment: KB is in the Solomon Sea.

Opportunities: The DEI is under-defended. In the Gulf of Carpentaria, all Allied ships, and all troops currently loaded aboard transports and assault shipping, will be diverted to the DEI to invade multiple bases in the Moluccas. This includes 4th Aussie Div., which is 100% prepped for Horn Island. (I will try to "conserve" the unit by landing at an unoccupied base, thus limiting disablements so that the unit can later be used at Horn Island). Other major units available: 3rd Aussie Div., a NZ brigade, and 29th Australian Brigade. A variety of engineering units are already aboard transports. Madjene and Palapo are currently vacant; Watampone has one unit (appears to be an engineering type), and even Makassar doesn't seem to be strongly garrisoned.

Three Allied CVL/CVE are disbanded at Cooktown along with BB Pennsylvania. I'm leaving them there under augmented CAP (200+ fighters) as bait.

The final call won't be made for another turn or two, giving me a bit more time to develop the information and (hopefully) confirm KB's whereabouts.

[Sangeli]

Haven't paid too much attention to this AAR of late (been busy) but I'm curious what your experience has been pushing into the DEI from the Arafura Sea. In my game it really became too much of a hassle because of limited port capacity. Had to ship everything from the west coast to eastern OZ, then from Townsville to Darwin, then to their final destination. In the end, I wish I had just stuck to the more traditional approach of advancing on the northern coast of New Guinea to get a shorter supply line. Curious if you're having a different experience.

[Canoerebel]

I didn't advance from the Arafura Sea into the DEI. It was the other way around: DEI first, then backtrack into the Arafura Sea. When I arrived in the DEI (via CenPac), I came with 500k supply and 300k fuel aboard TKs, AOs and xAKs. That was enough fuel and supplies to sustain operations for months. I have supplemented both fuel and supplies through two visits by Death Star to Normanton, Australia, which is large enough to provide what I've needed.

The sequence of Allied operations in CenPac from late May '43 through December of that year was pretty unusual. Scan back through the AAR if you want further information.

[Canoerebel]

Lots of helpful information in SigInt the past few days.

The reports regarding Kaveing offer insight into John's thinking, I believe. He's just garrisoned the base with 56th Div. (late from the Marshalls) and a coastal gun unit. He's serious about defending this area.

When Big Tent unfolded back in October and November, John commented that it was "Sumatra '43." If I'm reading all the signs correctly, he's still thinking that way. He believes I've stuck my neck out too far by invading the DEI; he's still thinking "forward" and offensively, believing he may have a chance to defeat Death Star and then isolate the DEI.

I don't think it's dawned on him that Big Tent '43 was entirely different than Sumatra '43; that the front is no longer in the Solomon Sea and Coral Sea; that the true front is in the DEI and Philippine Sea regions. He's done some work - perhaps a lot - but most of his weight is still forward, like a boxer leaning into his punches. KB has mostly been stationed in the Solomon Sea; and a lot of his big units are still committed forward.

He is attending to rear bases. Jolo, for instance, has been strongly reinforced. And a great deal of shipping has been sighted around Mindanao and Cebu the past few weeks. But, as best I can tell, he's deploying brigades and engineers in those regions while putting his divisions at Saipan and Kavieng.

If I'm reading all this entirely wrong, I'll have to reconsider. But at the moment, a lot of decisions have been made; a lot of buttons have been clicked; a lot of wheels are in motion.

[Jellicoe]

How many of John's slow battleships have you sunk or knocked out for awhile. I don't recall any losses amongst his BC but can recall I think that he has lost Hyuga, Fuso, Mutsu and damage to Yamato, Ise and Nagato? What I am saying is that BB spot may then be likely to be a Kongo and therefore more likely to be with or nearby to the KB?

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Jellicoe

How many of John's slow battleships have you sunk or knocked out for awhile. I don't recall any losses amongst his BC but can recall I think that he has lost Hyuga, Fuso, Mutsu and damage to Yamato, Ise and Nagato? What I am saying is that BB spot may then be likely to be a Kongo and therefore more likely to be with or nearby to the KB?

John's only lost a handful of BBs to date.

We all know how wildly inaccurate mouse-over reports are for enemy TF composition. So whether those reports yesterday were truly BBs, or whether they were instead CLs, I'm not sure. But the sum total of all the information I got on the day suggested, to me, that KB was in the Solomon Sea area. More on that in the next post.

[Canoerebel]

1/23/44

CenPac: USN sub Ling put one TT into CV Ryukaku seven hexes SE of Truk. No suggestion of more than minor damage. The question is whether she was inbound, either as part of KB or to join KB, or whether she (and KB?) are outbound.

Third Ring: No other sniffs or hints of KB today. The only other indication of elevated enemy interest in the region is that John put up CAP over Horn Island today and continues to CAP Port Moresby strongly.

Death Star and the Herd are moving north from Normanton towards Horn Island. At the moment, the invasion is "on," with D-Day in two days.

Carousel: All transports are loaded at Normanton and leave tonight. They'll trail the carriers by a hex or two for safety (thus slowing the carriers). Empty transports are inbound to Merauke to pick up 4th Aussie Div., which is prepping for Makassar. Recon today shows Makssar surprisingly lightly defended. John, I think, hasn't had time to get to it yet. He's focused on Ternate, Kendari, Balikpapan, and other places (Darwin and forward locations in the Pacific). The southern Moluccas are pretty open and very tempting.

So at this point the preferred plan is to invade Horn Island and then move on the Moluccas. I'm still not certain about KB's whereabouts, but 95% odds she's in the Pacific given Ryukaku and the AOs.