The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Lokasenna]

On the way to meet the AOs, IMO.

[Canoerebel]

1/24/44

Third Ring: KB sighted far to the north of the Solomons, bearing southeast. The Japanese carriers are too far away to contest tomorrow's invasion of Horn Island. But they are close enough, if they keep coming, to tinker with my plans to send scores of empty merchants home via the Coral Sea. Very interesting to see KB coming this way belatedly (from my perspective). As Loka conjectured, they must have refueled.

D-Day Horn Island tomorrow. The invasion is led by 4th Aussie Div., 100% prepped, followed by a brigade 65% prepped. I know the base has a CD unit and at least one decent infantry unit. I am a bit optimistic since Allied 4EB have been working this base over for months. Whether the assault results in a quick conquest or a prolonged campaign, the carriers, combat ship, and "loaded" portion of the Herd will retire after just a day or two, in order to proceed with landings in the DEI (unless John turns KB around instanter and send it sprinting west).

Lots of enemy subs in the Gulf of Carpentaria. One put a TT in CL Mobile, darn it, doing pretty heavy damage. One of two enemy subs got hit hard by ASW.

John is reinforcing Gove with 16th/A Div. (joining 16th/C Div.) I'll attend to this later.

SigInt reports 21st Div. at Davao and a base force bound for vacant Pare Pare, north of Makassar. Recon continues to show vacant or weakly-held bases in the southern Moluccas.

Things won't go perfectly, but the ideal recipe: (1) Horn Island falls quickly; (2) KB keeps coming south; and (3) Death Star and the "Moluccas Herd" moves swiftly into the void that still seems to exist in the DEI.

John is a stubborn cuss.

[BBfanboy]

Canoerebel: John is a stubborn cuss.

Pot calling the kettle black??[:'(]

KB heading SE (if accurate) suggests he is going back to the Marshalls/Gilberts to cover troop evacuations. He wants those troops to build his ring around your DEI lodgement.
Your landing at Horn Island might change his focus again though!

[Lokasenna]

He sure is wasting a lot of time and fuel out east. What does he think he's going to accomplish? Ambushing you on the way out?

Even if he did... any trade benefits you at this point.

[Flicker]

Good luck at Horn Island:

https://youtu.be/6A6HMpuleAc

[Canoerebel]

Uh, thanks Flicker. Taba naba!

[Canoerebel]

1/25/44

Forcing the Torres Strait: D-Day at Horn Island unfolded smoothly: ground bombardments, landings, and bombing by 2EB and 4EB. The base was indeed strongly held - six forts, a CD unit, and 1st Garrison Unit (which still showed 40 AV after months of bombings). But disruption and fatigue must have been through the roof, for the auto-shock attack came off at 17:1 and the base fell.

After months of looking over my shoulder, worrying about the lack of a secure LOC, the Torres Strait is open. Already, 98 ships (mainly xAK and xAP, but also a big mixture of AO, TK and some damaged ships - including CVE Altamaha) have entered the Coral Sea. These ships still have to make it down the coast, avoiding enemy air, subs, and possibly carriers, but this is the down payment needed to undertake operations in the future.

Patrols once again got good sightings on KB, which is now close to Bougainville (see map). I'm giving thought to what John's plan is, but I haven't come up with anything solid yet.

The Allies are going to move swiftly into the DEI. 4th Aussie Div. will immediately re-embark on APA and AKA (this leaves only a weakened Aussie brigade at Horn, but there's such an opportunity to move fast and hard). Another similar TF will reach Merauke tonight and load another Aussie division. I'm moving into the DEI immediately, especially if KB continues steaming away from the front.

Recon shows 75k troops at Rabaul - way over the limit. But this is probably a way-station, as John redistributes units.

Quiet in the DEI today. Recon shows that Kendari has 20k troops. Makassar has 12k, which is stiffer than I first thought. But there are open bases, and I just don't think John has the firepower to stop the Allies unless he commits KB. That's my objective above anything else - to get him to commit KB to the DEI. That will permit the rest of the Allied shipping to leave Oz and make for Pearl, and it will also help with certain other operations I'd like to run.

India: The Allied air force is rotating targets, but a high-priority at the moment is 70th Div. up in the Burma jungle past Mandalay. It's AV is now showing at about 150, a decrease of 100 in just a few days. I have an Indian brigade entrenched in the hex. Eventually the Indians might be able to evict 70th, if it gets much weaker.

This was a very, very good day for the Allies. So many things can go wrong still. I can screw up. Luck could smile on John. Subs might tear into Death Star. But, all things being equal, this is a critical moment for John, I believe. He's got to recall KB and commit it to the DEI immediately. If he doesn't, his situation there may really deteriorate.

[Flicker]

Let's all go down to the reef and have a great time!

https://youtu.be/HOpQ_UzVikc


This is the only Torres Strait song I've ever heard and thought you might like a soundtrack to the invasion. Getting cold around here IRL

[Lokasenna]

Alright, now you have Horn - and KB wasn't anywhere close enough to even try to wear down your meaningful ships by sinking a few amphibs or something. Still burning fuel on a pleasure cruise, I guess. Meanwhile, you're inching and nudging closer and closer to the big ticket items...

[Canoerebel]

Let's see what John does. Perhaps he sees an opportunity that justifies the fuel expense and the opportunity cost of not being in the main theater of action.

[Canoerebel]

The Evolution of an Operation

The idea for Big Tent originated in the early autumn of '43, as the Allies were winding down affairs in the Marshalls. The key triggering event was the defeat of the KB at the Great Naval Battle of Wake Island, because the Allies then had the carrier superiority needed to untether and strike deep behind the main lines.

At first, Big Tent was to encompass the main targets of Sorong, Manokwari, and Morotai. The region gradually expanded to include two other main targets, Boela and Ambon. During the early planning, the idea was to take and build up these bases and then move east along the north coast of New Guinea, picking up other vacant or lightly defended bases like Vanimo, Hollandia and Manus. Even as of the date of departure from Pearl, many of the follow-up troops were prepping for these destinations.

Already, though, I was toying with the idea of egressing through the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Torres Strait. As Big Tent arrived at the first beachheads, this plan solidified when KB showed up near the Admiralties. Egressing along New Guinea's north coast might be contested, so the Gulf seemed preferable.

With that in mind, Third Ring was conceived. This would be the ops needed (after Big Tent) to secure this new LOC: Merauke, Horn Island, and Port Moresby being the key targets. 4EB began regularly raids on these bases. During those early days of Third Ring planning, I thought Death Star and the Herd would, after finishing Big Tent, move quickly on to Third Ring. The idea included then invading Luganville, part of a process envisioned to shorten the LOC to Hawaii.

Early into Big Tent, John's efforts to reinforce Ambon, Babo, Dobo and other bases forced me to shift south quickly. It was necessary to check his efforts in order to preserve the southern egress route. The checks were pretty successful.

Beginning a few weeks ago, I concluded that Port Moresby (and certainly Luganville) were not necessary bases. Desirable, yes; but necessary, no. The idea was to move forward rather than backward as long as KB wasn't contesting the DEI. That's why PM is no longer a part of Third Ring (at least for now, though two divisions 100% prepped are still in Oz).

As Big Tent was winding down it also became clear that there were many vacant bases in the southern DEI (Flores Island, et al) and in the Moluccas. Thus was born Operation Carousel, which is not yet completely defined. But if KB remains out of theater, then it appears that bases in the Moluccas are the next targets.

This is not an operation in "isolation." This is part of a much larger plan, some of which is already underway. I would prefer John to commit KB to the DEI, so Carousel, while worthwhile on its own merits, is meant to force John to commit.

Big Tent and Third Ring are essentially complete. Now we move on to Carousel and other operations.

[Canoerebel]

1/26/44

Carousel: Most of 4th Div. at Horn Island reimbarked on transports today; those transports depart tomorrow. The same process commences with 2nd Div. at Merauke, beginning tomorrow. I expect the Carousel invasion fleet to be underway in two days.

KB sighted again, part at Tulagi and part trailing a bit. This might be a troop-retrieval mission. If Kb lingers another day or two, it won't have any chance to move to the DEI in time to contest the first landings.

I have a lot of ships strung out along the Oz coast. I'm trying to herd this Herd safely to Sydney, but they also make good bait. KB in the Coral Sea would be a boon to Carousel.

[Canoerebel]

1/27/44

Carousel: Loading of the two Australian divisions at Horn Island and Merauke is winding down, with the Carousel "Herd" scheduled to move out and head into the Arafura Sea. I have some troops amphibious loaded and some strategic loaded. The latter will first unload at Boela and then combat load. While that takes place, I may proceed with the invasion of Loewoek in the Moluccas. It's defended, but I think relatively weakly. A Kiwi brigade has pretty good prep for that base. But the real target here is the southern Moluccas, commencing with landings at an unoccupied (or very lightly occupied) base or two, followed by a march towards Makassar. Death Star will remain in the vicinity to control the seas. Drawing KB this way is a priority.

Third Ring: 1st Marine Div./A is ashore at Merauke to handle garrison duties. This is an unsatisfying mission for a proud division that served so well in Sumatra. She was destroyed there, rebuilt at San Fran, and then misused (low prep, low experience) in the unhappy invasion of Namlea a month or two ago. Now one RCT garrisons Bathurst Island, one Merauke, and one is at Pearl Harbor, prepping for Eniwetok, which may or may not be targeted.

Roughly 125 Big Tent ships are moving down the Oz coast. Enemy air sortied in moderate numbers, but where turned back by fighters from Cooktown. John could pounce with KB, though I doubt he'll do so (opportunity cost too high). Roughly 100 of these ships at xAP and xAK which will report to Pearl Harbor for Operation Fun House.

Oz is basically undefended now. An invasion would go almost unopposed (except in the air, which would be a material player). There is a small chance John might seize on this opportunity (hey, he invaded India in 1944 in our previous game). But a major foray here would be disastrous for him, as all the real action would be taking place right on the doorstep of the Home Islands.

Fun House: Lots of troops concentrating in Hawaii. Lots of prep going on. Lots of thought being give to exactly how to approach the targets, and whether and how to make use of assets in the DEI to either distract or contribute. It's going to be a complicated, massive undertaking. It's fun putting it together.

Operation Bumper Car: This one depends on what KB does, and where it goes, over the next five days. Stay tuned.

[Canoerebel]

Place holder for future thoughts unlikely to occur in the foreseeable future or at any time short of the end of days. Or somesuch.

[Canoerebel]

Condition of the Fleet

Death Star has been at sea since Big Tent commenced in late October. During those 3+ months, she's been in port a total of about six days, and she's never docked (the two ports visited - Boela and Normanton - being too small).

This image is representative of the cumulative wear and tear, which is minimal. This is attributable to avoiding any flank speed runs (rejecting opportunities to go after juicy merchant TFs). Most of the time, DS moves only four or five hexes a turn.

Most DS carriers are due their 10/43 upgrades (that will take ten days), and I think all are now due for their 1/44 upgrades (but that takes a level 10 shipyard, so it's not going to happen anytime soon). I'd like to do the upgrades, but they aren't as important as the missions. It will become more important if and when John commits KB to a face-off.

As long as damage remains minimal, DS can remain active and at sea. I can draw sufficient fuel from Normanton to handle any conceivable operations out of the DEI. So DS will likely remain on station in the DEI into the medium turn, until the time comes to join or lead Fun House in middle March.

[Canoerebel]

As Big Tent unfolded in November, John predicted that it might turn out to be a "Sumatra '43." At first, he thought the targets were fairly limited (Biak and Sorong). He probably thought the duration would be limited by fuel. And he probably counted on the Allied armada retiring pretty quickly, moving through dangerous waters contested (and perhaps controlled) by a combination of Japanese LBA and KB.

John accordingly devised a strategy to build up the airfields on New Guinea, and he stationed KB in that area so that it could pounce when the time came.

Then days turned into weeks, and weeks turned into months. Death Star and the Herd basically never retired. The major reasons: (1) Big Tent included 300k in extra fuel; (2) Normanton, Oz, was then sufficient to refuel major parts of the fleet on two occasions, and (3) John never committed KB to the DEI, so that there are always juicy targets undefended or under-defended.

Thus we've existed in a weird twilight state - John waiting for Death Star to retire, me waiting for KB to move forward. So, as BBFanboy noted, we've both stuck stubbornly to our strategies. Let's see how it plays out now.

[JohnDillworth]

Not sure about Makassar but Kendari is a real prize. Besides the closer oil fields it brings the Miri fields into B-24 range. Kill those fields and oil has to com from Palemberg mostly and you should have plenty of Gatos and aggressive skippers to cause problems

[Canoerebel]

I agree: Kendari is a prize. It's heavily garrisoned, though, and I have no troops prepping for it. So the circumstances aren't "right" to move there in the short term. But I can move beyond it, take several vacant or weakly defended bases, build them large, and also move on Makassar. Any big airfields in the Waitampone, Pare Pare, Palopo triangle (just north of Makassar) should neutralize Balikpapan and Soerabaja. Then, as time permits, I can prep big divisions for Kendari and Ternate (and possibly Manado).

There's two viable ways of moving now - quickly to take undefended bases, or with highly-prepped troops to take the tough nuts.

[Canoerebel]

1/28/44

Carousel: All ships are moving through the Arafura Sea now.

KB (or at least part of it) is still at Ontong Java. That's really the key to everything right now. John can load up airfields and try to get strikes through, but thus far he's lost a heckuva lot of aircraft trying that. It's a good strategy, so he'll keep trying. But only the dual threat - LBA and KB - would slow me or stop me from moving aggressively.

There was sharp action involving subs today. John's sank two LST (at Horn Island) and a DE (near Merauke). Allied ASW got confirmed kills on two subs. That's good work.

Nav Search only picked up one of the two carrier divisions down at Ontong. The other could be there, or John might have some devilment in mind. I'm holding some of my merchant TFs at Cooktown and Townsville for a few days so that they'll have the benefit of CAP.

It's 1944, so those of you who play the Allies know that the amount of clicking involved is immense. Today, for instance, I had to change the home ports of most of Death Star and the Herd from Normanton to Boela. And there's the vast airforce in India, currently doing heavy work every day. Today I switched targets from Schwebo to Lashio. And then there's all the ships at sea doing 10,000 missions.

...and then there's Bumper Car, grinding along, every officer waiting anxiously for each day's reports of KB's whereabouts.

[Canoerebel]

Oops, all this time I've been referring to Celebes as "the Moluccas." So that'll be confusing to a lot of readers.